Housing Land Supply: Making a Windfall Allowance

93 Pages·2013·3.31 MB·English

Tunbridge Wells Borough
Local Development Framework
Windfall
Housing land Supply : Making a Windfall Allowance
February 2013

HousingLandSupply:MakingaWindfallAllowance SupportingDocument
Section 1: Introduction
1.1 The Government's National Planning Policy Framework (NPPF) includes policies aimed at
"Delivering a wide choice of high quality homes" (NPPF, Part 6). One of those policies (at para. 47)
requireslocalplanningauthoritiesto"identifyandupdateannuallyasupplyofspecificdeliverablesites
sufficient to provide five years worth of housing against their housing requirements with an additional
bufferof5%(movedforwardfromlaterintheplanperiod)toensurechoiceandcompetitioninthemarket
for land." Tunbridge Wells Borough Council (TWBC) will include a policy in the Local Plan to formally
set out that the five-year housing supply will be identified from the following sources:
sites with extant planning permission for housing
siteswithoutplanningpermissionthathavebeenspecificallyidentifiedandareconsideredtooffer
a suitable location for development now; be available now; and have a reasonable prospect of
delivering housing within five years (NPPF, footnote 11)
an allowance for windfall sites
1.2 This Report is concerned with the last of these sources: making an allowance for windfall sites.
The NPPF defines windfall sites as "sites which have not been specifically identified as available
in the Local Plan process. They normally comprise previously-developed sites that have
unexpectedly become available." Para. 48 provides for local authorities to make an allowance for
windfall sites in the five-year housing supply if they have "compelling evidence that such sites have
consistentlybecomeavailableinthelocalareaandwillcontinuetoprovideareliablesourceofsupply."
This was not permissible under previous national policy for at least 10 years, unless genuine local
circumstances prevented specific sites from being identified.
Why make a windfall allowance?
1.3 During the period 01 April 2000 to 31 March 2012, 2,472 dwellings, amounting to 65.4% of all
housing built in the Borough during that time, were built on previously developed windfall sites. This
excludes a further260 dwellings (6.9%)which were builton unidentifiedgreenfieldsitesthatwere also
consideredtobesuitableforresidentialdevelopment.Suchsiteswereeffectivelywindfallsites,butnot
ofthetypethattheCouncilcantakeintoaccountwhenseekingtoforecastfuturewindfalldeliveryrates.
Even discounting the latter type, windfall sites have clearly delivered a very significant proportion of
recenthousingdevelopmentintheBoroughand,whileitisacceptedthattherateofwindfalldevelopment
will possibly decrease over time,it is unrealistic to assume thatit will not happen at all in the future.So
why is this important?
1.4 TWBC believes that it has compelling evidence to justify the inclusion of a windfall allowance of
upto48dwellingsperyearinthenextfive-yearsupply(reducingto38and33dwellingsinsubsequent
five-yearperiods)and,furthermore,itconsidersthatamoreappropriatepatternofdevelopmentwillbe
achieved in this particular Borough by doing so. As such, the purpose of this report is to set out the
evidence and method of analysis from which this allowance has been derived.
1.5 IftheCouncilmakesnoallowanceforhousingtobedeliveredonwindfallsitesinthefuture,more
greenfieldsiteswillneedtobeidentifiedandallocatedintheLocalPlaninordertodemonstratethatthe
totalremaininghousingrequirementcanbemet.Tofurtherdemonstratethatthereisasufficientfive-year
supplyofsitesonanannualbasis,itisalsopossiblethatsomeoftheallocatedgreenfieldsiteswillneed
tobephasedforreleaseearlierinthePlanperiodthanwouldbenecessaryifthefive-yearsupplyincluded
awindfallallowance.Thisisimportantbecauseanyunnecessarydevelopmentongreenfieldsiteswould
be contrary to the Council's core planning strategy to "pursue an urban focus for development in order
tooptimisethevitalityoftheBorough'stowncentres;tomakeoptimumuseofpreviouslydeveloped
land; and to protect the distinctive character of the rural environment" (Core Strategy, page 16,
Box 3).
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SupportingDocument HousingLandSupply:MakingaWindfallAllowance
1.6 TheCouncilhasadoptedthisstrategy,alongwithplanningpoliciestosupportit,inrecognitionof
the very significant environmental and strategic constraints upon development that exist in Tunbridge
Wells. 70% of the Borough is covered by the High Weald Area of Outstanding Natural Beauty (AONB)
and thus warrants the same level of protection as a National Park; and 22% is within the Metropolitan
Green Belt (MGB) where a presumption against inappropriate development applies. For a variety of
otherreasons,itisneitherpossiblenorappropriatetoaccommodatealltheBorough'shousingrequirement
outsideofthesesensitiveareasand,whiletheCouncilrecognisesthatthereisaneedtoprovideadditional
housing,itwishesforittobedeliveredinawaythatminimisestheimpactuponthem.Makingareasonable
allowance for the continued occurrence of development on windfall sites is one way that the Council
can seek to balance these important objectives, and one that is consistent with new national policy in
the NPPF.
Structure of report
1.7 This report sets out the case, referring to accompanying documents and appendices.
1.8 Section 2 is a summary of the methodology and the various stages which have been applied in
the analysis.
1.9 PastwindfallcompletionsandoutcomesareworkedthroughinSection3.Thisincludesthesteps
of excluding the rural and village component, then greenfield and then gardens, in order to arrive at a
reliable and robust figure. It also examines sources of windfall in order to understand and profile future
windfalls.
1.10 Extantconsentsareincludedasacontributiontothefive-yearsupply.This,forthesakeofclarity,
isprofiledaccordingtoexpirydateoverthethreeyears.Notethatthisisalsofurtherdiscountedby10%
to reflect the normal lapse rate in the Borough. To avoid double counting, the consented are identified
separatelyfromtheprojectedwindfall,whichisthenonlycountedafterthisthree-yearperiod,although
thereistheprobabilitythatsomewindfallswillbeconsentedanddeliveredwithinthethree-yearperiod.
1.11 The projected windfall for years 4 and 5 and then beyond are assessed applying a series of
'moderators'. While using past trends, as well as actual consented rates, to provide clear evidence of
windfall performance, this stage of the assessment applies a realistic projection to arrive at a reliable
figure.
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HousingLandSupply:MakingaWindfallAllowance SupportingDocument
Section 2: Methodology
2.1 In order to make a windfall allowance, para. 48 of the NPPF requires compelling evidence that
windfall sites have consistently become available in the area and that they will continue to provide a
reliable source of supply. It further states that any windfall allowance should be "realistic having regard
to the Strategic Housing Land Availability Assessment, historic windfall delivery rates and expected
future trends, and should not include residential gardens." This chapter sets out the main stages by
whichtheCouncilwilluseitsextensiveevidencebase,collectedoverthelast12years,asthebasisfor
forecasting a reasonable and robust windfall allowance that could be included in the five-year land
supply.
Data and Methodology
2.2 The primary evidence that will support TWBC's windfall allowance is provided by data on past
housingcompletions.TheCouncilhascollecteddetaileddataovertheperiod01April2000to31March
2012,whichcanbeanalysedtoidentifycommontrendsinhousingdeliveryacrosstheBorough,interms
ofwherenewhousinghasbeenbuiltandonwhattypesofsites,forexample.Thesehistorictrendscan
thenbeusedasthebasisforforecastinglikelyfuturepatternsofdevelopment,althoughthesewillneed
tobeadjusted,ormoderated,totakeaccountofcurrentconditionsandofnationalandlocalpolicyand
development objectives.
2.3 The recommended windfall allowance for Tunbridge Wells Borough will be derived in three main
stages, as summarised in Table 1.
Table1Methodologyformakingthewindfallallowance
Stage Main points of analysis
1.1 Identify total housing completions by Typical Urban Character Area.
1.2 Identify the 'true' windfall component of completions by isolating those
on unidentified sites from those on allocated sites.
1.3Identifythesignificantelementofwindfallonlyforthemainurbanareas
of the Borough by excluding the rural and small settlements component.
1. LookingBack:
Analysis of historic 1.4 Identify the source of the remaining windfall component in terms of
completionsdata to whetheritresultedfromtheconversionorsub-divisionofexistingbuildings,
identify trends in from infill development or intensification, or from redevelopment.
windfalldevelopment
1.5 Identify the element of the windfall component that can be used for the
purpose of making a future allowance under the terms of the NPPF, by
isolatingcompletionsonpreviouslydevelopedsitesfromthoseongreenfield
sites, including residential gardens.
1.6Identifythecontributionthatcurrentextantconsentscanbeexpectedto
make to the housing land supply in the next three years.
2.1 Consider the impact on future windfall rates of identifying more sites
2. ModeratingPast
through the Strategic Housing Land Availability Assessment (SHLAA) or
Trends: Identifying
other similar work.
the factors that may
change windfall
2.2 Consider whether any current national or local policy objectives could
developmentrates in
have an impact on future windfall delivery rates.
the future
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SupportingDocument HousingLandSupply:MakingaWindfallAllowance
Stage Main points of analysis
2.3 Consider whether any other factors, including qualitative factors, could
have an impact on future windfall delivery rates, such as whether sources
of supply are more limited (see 1.4 above), or whether there is a need to
preserve, enhance or rejuvenate the character of a particular area.
3. LookingForward: 3.1ApplythevariousmoderatingfactorsconsideredinStage2tothewindfall
Applyingthe supplyprojectedin1.6,toforecastareasonableandrobustwindfallallowance
moderatingfactorsto which could be included in the five-year land supply in the future.
past trends to
forecastlikelywindfall
delivery rates in the
future
2.4 Further detail will be provided about each stage of the methodology as they are worked through
in Section 3.
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HousingLandSupply:MakingaWindfallAllowance SupportingDocument
Section 3: Results – presenting the evidence for each stage of the
methodology
3.1 This section works through the different stages of the methodology for forecasting a windfall
allowancethatweresummarisedinSection2.Theheadlineresultsforeachstageareexplainedbelow.
Section 4 draws together the main findings that are built up in this section to inform the recommended
windfall allowance.
Stage 1 - Looking Back
1.1 Housingcompletionsand the Typical Urban Character Area Assessment
3.2 In the period 01 April 2000 to 31 March 2012, 3,781 net additional dwellings were completed in
theBoroughtakenasawhole.Forthepurposeofforecastingawindfallallowance,itishelpfultoknow
more precisely where in the Borough these completions occurred. This will make it possible to more
robustly assess whether housing delivery is likely to take place in similar areas in the future, and at a
similar rate, or whether any current conditions indicate that delivery is likely to increase or decrease in
particular areas.
3.3 Tofacilitatethisassessment,dataonhousingcompletionsinTunbridgeWellsBoroughhasbeen
collectedforeachof29characterareasdefinedindetailintheTypicalUrbanCharacterAreaAppraisal
(TUCAA),2009.Thecharacterareaswerefirstdefinedin1999asaresultofhistorical,townscapeand
urban morphology studies; detailed site visits; and local knowledge. Table 2 below provides summary
information about each character area and a map to show their location can be found at Appendix 1
andalsoathttp://www2.tunbridgewells.gov.uk/pdf/PP_EVBA_TUCA_Base_Map_RTW1.Pdf.TheTypical
Urban Characterisation document is available as part of the LDF evidence base or on line at -
http://www2.tunbridgewells.gov.uk/pdf/CAB004appa.pdf.
Table2SummaryofdefinedTypicalUrbanCharacterAreas
Character TypicalDevelopment Age Areause/
Area Type(notexclusive) characteristics
A1 Historictowncentre,e.g.RoyalTunbridge Pre-1820withareasof Mixedresidential/retail/
Wells(RTW)HighStreetandPantiles, redevelopment commercial
Cranbrook
A2 Victoriancommercial,shoppingarea,e.g. 1821-1900withsome Mixeduses,mainlyretail
StJohnsRTW,PaddockWood areasofsmall-scale withresidentialover
redevelopment
A3 Towncentre,e.g.MountPleasantarea, 1821-1900withareasof Mixeduse
RTW large-scale
redevelopment
A4 Edgeoftowncentre Mixed Mixed
B1 Victoriandetachedvillas/lowdensity,e.g. 1821-1900 Residential
CalverleyPark,RTW; 'Arcadian'
B2 Victoriandetached/semi three-storey,e.g. 1821-1900 Residential
UpperGrosvenorRoad,FrantRoadRTW
B3 Victorianthree-storeyterraced,some 1821-1900 Residential
semis,
e.g. PrincesSt, DudleyRd,
MountfieldGardensRTW
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SupportingDocument HousingLandSupply:MakingaWindfallAllowance
Character TypicalDevelopment Age Areause/
Area Type(notexclusive) characteristics
B4 Victorianterraces.Small,two-storey,e.g. 1821-1900 Residential
CamdenRdareaRTW,Southboroughwest
oftheA26
C1 Edwardianvilla/low density,e.g. 1900-1918 Residential
Molyneux,MadeiraParkRTW
C2 Edwardianterrace,e.g.WhitefieldRoad 1900-1918 Residential
Southborough
D1 Inter-warspacious,largedetached,e.g. 1919-1945 Residential
WarwickParkRTW
D2 Inter-wardetached,e.g.ByngRoadRTW 1919-1945 Residential
D3 Inter-warsemi-detached, 1919-1945 Residential
e.g. YewTreeRdSouthborough,
RavenswoodAveRTW
E1 Post-warspaciousdetached,e.g.The 1946-1970 Residential
CrosswaySouthborough
E2 Post-wardetached,e.g.SandownPark 1946-1970 Residential
RTW
E3 Post-warsemi-detached/shortterraces, 1946-1970 Residential
e.g.Ramslye,SherwoodRTW
E4 Post-warflats,e.g.Sherwood/Greggswood 1946-1970 Residential
RTW
E5 Bungalows 1946-1970 Residential
F1 Executivedetachedhouses,e.g.Finches 1971-present Residential
EstatePaddockWood
F2 Modernsemis/terraces/flats,e.g.r/o 1971-present Residential
CouncilOffices,Cranbrook,BarnettsWood
Southborough
F3 Flats 1971-present Residential
G1 Mixedagedetached/semis Mixed Mainlyresidential
G2 Othermixedagehighdensity Mixed Mainlyresidential
H1 Industrial/Commercial Mixed Industrial,retail,
commercial
H2 Community Mixed Hospital/community
health
H3 Education Mixed Education–large
schools/colleges
H4 Leisure/Recreation Mixed Parks,gardens,public
openspace,leisure
centres,allotments,
naturereserves
V1 Historicvillagecentre Pre-1900withsome Mixeduses
minorareasof
redevelopment
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HousingLandSupply:MakingaWindfallAllowance SupportingDocument
Character TypicalDevelopment Age Areause/
Area Type(notexclusive) characteristics
V2 Residentialvillageexpansion Post-1900residential, Residential
usuallyestatehousing
3.4 The analysis carried out at each stage of this methodology has been performed at the level of
each individual character area. The supporting document at Appendix 1 (The Evaluation of Housing
Potentials from Unidentified Sites: Windfall) provides a detailed assessment of each character area,
including a description of the area; an assessment of what the "looking back" data tells us about
development in the area historically; and an assessment of how the specific characteristics of the area
may affect windfall development in the future.
3.5 ThedetaileddataanalysispresentedinAppendix1isfundamentalforthisreport,butforreasons
ofbrevity,thissectiongenerallyreportsontheoverallborough-widefindings,whileindividualcharacter
areas are referred to as necessary to highlight important trends.
1.2 Identify the 'true' windfallcomponentof completions
3.6 Windfall sites are defined in the NPPF as those sites "which have not been specifically identified
asavailableintheLocalPlanprocess".Ofthetotal3,781dwellingscompletedfrom01April2000to31
March 2012, 1,049 were built on sites that were allocated in a Local Plan. The remaining 2,732 were,
therefore, delivered on unidentified windfall sites.
3.7 Itispossiblethatmoresiteswillbespecificallyidentifiedthroughtheplanningprocessinthefuture
thanwereidentifiedinthepast.Stage2.1considershowthismayimpactuponfutureprojectedwindfall
delivery rates.
1.3 Previouslydevelopedland vs. greenfieldwindfallsites
3.8 Unidentified previously developed land (PDL) sites and unidentified greenfield sites can both
correctlybedefinedaswindfallsitesandbothtypeshavedeliveredhousingintheBoroughinthepast.
However, the definition of windfall sites in the NPPF glossary states that they will "normally comprise
previously-developed sites that have unexpectedly become available". This presumably reflects the
Government's preference for developing land with "the least environmental or amenity value" (NPPF,
para. 110) and for encouraging "the effective use of land by re-using land that has been previously
developed" (NPPF, para. 111).
3.9 This message is consistent with the Council's reasons for wishing to make an allowance for
development on windfall sites and so it is appropriate to emphasise the potential yield of previously
developedwindfallsiteswhenforecastingwhatthatallowanceshouldbe.Inthisrespect,itisalsorelevant
thatthenationaldefinitionofpreviouslydevelopedlandhasbeenchangedtoexcluderesidentialgardens
and, while it makes no reference to greenfield sites in general, para. 48 of the NPPFspecifically states
that residential gardens should not be included in any windfall allowance.
3.10 Of the 2,732 dwellings that were delivered on unidentified windfall sites in the period 01 April
2000 to 31 March 2012 (from para. 2.10 above), 2,472 were delivered on previously developed sites.
AsFigure1belowconfirms,developmentonthesesitesmadeupasignificantproportionofallcompletions
in each year.
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Figure1CompletionsbyType
3.11 Asaresultofcarryingoutstages1.1to1.2above,wehaveaclearunderstandingofhowmuch
housingwasdeliveredonthedifferenttypesofwindfallsitesinthepast.Thedataonwindfallcompletions
frompreviouslydevelopedsitesprovidesarelativelymodestand(partlybecauseofthis)arobustbasis
from which to begin to forecast future windfall delivery. Furthermore, they are the type of windfall site
that it is most desirable to take account of in the future land supply.
1.4 Urban vs. Rural and villages
3.12 TheNPPFhighlightsatpara48thatthewindfallcaseshouldbecompellingandrealistic.Whilst
windfalls have occurred across the whole Borough, the majority have been concentrated in the main
urban areas of the main urban area, which have provided some 74.3% of the total.
3.13 Acrosstherestoftheboroughtheyhavecomefromthesmallersettlementsandvillagestogether
withareasoutsidethelimitstobuiltdevelopment.Thedatafortheseisarguablylessstatisticallysignificant
and therefore, less reliable for projections. They are also spread over a diversity of typologies.
3.14 For the purposes of this report, this component of windfall has been discounted from further
analysis. The data set out in Table 3 and subsequent analysis therefore relates to Royal Tunbridge
Wells,RusthallandSouthborough(themainurbanarea)only.Appendix2setsoutananalysisforthese
rural and village areas and reasons for not including the data. It should however be borne in mind that
this part of the borough could still deliver a windfall rate in the order of 23 dwellings per year.
3.15 Thepurposeofstages1.4to1.6belowistoscrutinisethehistoricdatainmoredetailtoidentify
anytrendsthatmighthelptomakefuturewindfallprojectionsmoreaccurate.Thisisalsomorefullyset
out in the Outcomes section of the supporting document at Appendix 1.
1.4 Source/formeruses of windfallsites
3.16 In existing urban areas, the opportunities for windfall development to take place on previously
developed sites come from three main sources:
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