Household and Living Arrangement Projections: The Extended Cohort-Component Method and Applications to the U.S. and China

376 Pages·2014·6.77 MB·English

by  Yi Zeng

The Springer Series on Demographic Methods
and Population Analysis 36
Yi Zeng · Kenneth C. Land
Danan Gu · Zhenglian Wang
Household
and Living
Arrangement
Projections
The Extended Cohort-Component
Method and Applications to the
U.S. and China
Household and Living Arrangement Projections
THE SPRINGER SERIES ON
DEMOGRAPHIC METHODS AND
POPULATION ANALYSIS
Series Editor
KENNETH C. LAND
Duke University
Inrecentdecades,therehasbeenarapiddevelopmentofdemographicmodelsandmethods
and an explosive growth in the range of applications of population analysis. This series
seekstoprovideapublicationoutletbothforhigh-qualitytextualandexpositorybookson
modern techniques of demographic analysis and for works that present exemplary
applications of suchtechniques tovarious aspectsof populationanalysis.
Topicsappropriate fortheseries include:
(cid:129) General demographic methods
(cid:129) Techniques of standardization
(cid:129) Life table modelsand methods
(cid:129) Multistate and multiregional lifetables, analyses andprojections
(cid:129) Demographic aspects ofbiostatistics and epidemiology
(cid:129) Stable populationtheory and its extensions
(cid:129) Methods ofindirect estimation
(cid:129) Stochastic population models
(cid:129) Event historyanalysis, duration analysis,and hazard regressionmodels
(cid:129) Demographic projection methods andpopulation forecasts
(cid:129) Techniquesofapplieddemographicanalysis,regionalandlocalpopulationestimatesand
projections
(cid:129) Methods ofestimation and projectionforbusiness andhealth care applications
(cid:129) Methods andestimates forunique populationssuch asschoolsand students
Volumes in the series are of interest to researchers, professionals, and students in
demography,sociology,economics,statistics,geographyandregionalscience,publichealth
and health care management, epidemiology, biostatistics, actuarial science, business, and
related fields.
For furthervolumes:
http://www.springer.com/series/6449
Yi Zeng (cid:129) Kenneth C. Land (cid:129) Danan Gu
Zhenglian Wang
Household and Living
Arrangement Projections
The Extended Cohort-Component Method
and Applications to the U.S. and China
YiZeng KennethC.Land
CenterforStudyofAgingandHuman DepartmentofSociologyand
DevelopmentMedicalSchool CenterforPopulationHealthandAging
DukeUniversity PopulationResearchInstitute
Durham,NC,USA DukeUniversity
Durham,NC,USA
NationalSchoolofDevelopment
CenterforHealthyAgingand
ZhenglianWang
DevelopmentStudies
CenterforPopulationHealthandAging
PekingUniversity
PopulationResearchInstitute
Beijing,China
DukeUniversity
Durham,NC,USA
DananGu
PopulationDivision HouseholdandConsumptionForecasting,Inc.
UnitedNations ChapelHill,NC,USA
NewYork,NY,USA
ISSN1389-6784
ISBN978-90-481-8905-2 ISBN978-90-481-8906-9(eBook)
DOI10.1007/978-90-481-8906-9
SpringerDordrechtHeidelbergNewYorkLondon
LibraryofCongressControlNumber:2013954374
©SpringerScience+BusinessMediaDordrecht2014
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Preface
This book presents an innovative demographic toolkit known as the ProFamy
extended cohort-component method for the projection of household structures
andlivingarrangementswithempiricalapplicationstotheUnitedStates,thelargest
developed country, and China, the largest developing country. The ProFamy
methodusesdemographicratesasinputstoprojectdetaileddistributionsofhouse-
holdtypesandsizes,livingarrangementsofallhouseholdmembers,andpopulation
by age, sex, race/ethnicity, and urban/rural residence at national, sub-national, or
smallarealevels.Itcanalsoprojectelderlycareneedsandcosts,pensiondeficits,
andhouseholdconsumption.Thebookconsistsoffourparts.Thefirstpartpresents
themethodology,data,estimationissues,andempiricalassessments.Thenexttwo
parts present applications in the United States (Part II) and China (Part III),
concerningdemographic,social,economic,andbusinessresearch;policyanalysis,
including forecasting future trends of household type/size, elderly living
arrangements,disability,andhome-basedcarecosts;andhouseholdconsumptions,
including housing and vehicles. The fourth part includes a user’s guide for the
ProFamy software to project households, living arrangements, and home-based
consumptions.
TheveryinitialideaoftheresearchpresentedinthisbookbeganwhenIwasa
Ph.D.studentatBrusselsFreeUniversityandattendedtheInternationalUnionfor
ScientificStudiesofPopulation(IUSSP)1983familydemographyseminar.Atthat
seminar, I was especially interested in a paper presented by Professor John
Bongaarts on “The projection of family composition over the life course with the
familystatuslifetable.”Withstrongsupportfrommysupervisors,ProfessorsFrans
WillekensandRonLesthaeghe,andstimulatedbyProfessorJohnBongaarts’initial
nuclearfamilystatuslifetablemodel,IconductedmyPh.D.thesisresearchatthe
Netherlands Interdisciplinary Demographic Institute (NIDI) in 1984–1986 to
develop a general family status life table modelincludingboth nuclear andthree-
generation families, with an empirical application to China. During my study at
NIDI, I learned a great deal of multistate demography from Professor Frans
Willeken, who not only supervised my Ph.D study but also helped my long-term
professionalcareerdevelopmentincludingworkonthisbook.AsaFrankNotestein
v
vi Preface
Post-doctoralFellowin1986–1987,Ifurtherstudiedthisdemographictopicatthe
Office of Population Research at Princeton University, under the supervision of
Professors Ansley Coale and Jane Menken. My research at Brussels Free Univer-
sity,NIDI,andPrincetonUniversityenabledmetowinthePopulationAssociation
of America 1987 Dorothy Thomas Award, and my paper on “Changes in Family
Structure inChina: ASimulation Study” was published inPopulation and Devel-
opment Review (Zeng 1986). I greatly appreciate what I learned from Professors
Willekens,Lesthaeghe,Coale,Menken,andBongaartsduringmyPh.D.andpost-
doctoralstudies,knowledgewhichledtothenewresearchreportedinthisbook.
After I became a faculty member at the Institute of Population Research at
PekingUniversityinAugust1987,Icontinuedmyresearchinfamilydemography
andtriedtoexpandittohealthyagingandpopulationpolicyanalysis.Iparticularly
enjoyedandlearnedalotfromlong-termproductivecollaborationswithProfessor
James Vaupel, who I first got to know and started to collaborate with at the
International Institute of Applied Systems Analysis in 1985, a summer young
scientists’programwhichwassupervisedbyProfessorsNancyKeyfitzandJames
Vaupel. Among many collaborative research projects and co-authored peer-
reviewedpublishedpaperswithJamessince1985,ourjointarticles(Zeng,Vaupel,
andWang1997,1998)aremostrelevanttothisbook.Inour1997–1998papers,we
initiallydevelopedthehouseholdandlivingarrangementprojectionmodelknown
as ProFamy, which includes two sexes and time-varying demographic rates as
input,andappliedittoChina,basedontheone-sexfamilystatuslifetablemodels
(withconstantdemographicrates)ofBongaarts(1987)andZeng(1986)mentioned
above. In a 1992 interview entitled “Talk to Demographer: Chinese demography
startstogototheworld”publishedinthejournalPopulationbyFudanUniversityin
Shanghai,Itoldtheinterviewerwhowasoneofthejournal’seditors:“Ilearneda
lotfrommycollaborator JamesVaupel;hismindislikeacomputer.WhenIvisit
him every year, we start to discuss research immediately after saying hello and
shakinghands.Sometimeshewouldbedrivingbutcontinuingtotalkwithmeabout
themathematicaldemographicformulasandcomputerprogramsofourjointpapers
(whichwasoneofthepriorresearchbasesofthisbook),andIhadtoremindhimto
becarefultoavoidacaraccident.IamsurethatmanyChinesepeopleweredeeply
impressedfromProfessorJamesVaupel’sstyleofscientificresearchbyreadingthis
publishedinterviewreport.
Sincelate1998,IhavebeenafacultymemberatDukeUniversity,whileIkeep
my faculty position at Peking University and divide my work time between these
twouniversitiesacrosstheocean.ProfessorKenLand,whoisthesecondauthorof
thisbook,pickedmeupattheairportwhenIfirstcametoDuke,anoccasionthatI
will remember for life. Since then we began to frequently discuss our work and
closely collaborate on research. Our joint work includes substantially extending
and developing the ProFamy extended cohort-component model, software, and
applications to the United States and China. Ken’s extremely broad mind and
strongmathematical, statistical,anddemographicskillshavehelpedmealot.For
example, he innovatively developed and summarized the basic procedures of the
ProFamymodelintofour“coreideas”(refertoSect.2.2ofChap.2ofthisbook),
Preface vii
which are remarkably helpful for readers to easily understand the relatively com-
plicated structure of the new method. He presented these four “core ideas” at the
American Statistical Association 2006 Annual Meeting, a presentation that was
wellreceivedbystatisticalanddemographiccolleaguesatthemeeting.Duringthe
rather long period of preparing the manuscript of this book, Ken repeatedly
reminded me that “We need to take our time to work this manuscript over and
overagain,sothatitisaproductofthehighqualitythatwewant.”Clearly,Ken’s
solidscientificresearchstyleandknowledgesignificantlycontributedtothemerit
ofthisbook.
I am of course very grateful for the outstanding contributions of the other two
co-authorsofthisbook, Dr. Danan Gu andDr. Zhenglian Wang; thisbook would
never have been produced without their hard work and close collaborations. We
would like to sincerely thank Dr. Jessica Sautter, who very carefully edited,
questioned, and commented on the entire manuscript to help us to significantly
improve the quality of this book. We also would like to thank the supports from
DukeUniversity,PekingUniversity,andtheMaxPlankInstituteforDemographic
Research,andourcolleaguesattheseinstitutionslistedintheAcknowledgments.
ProfessorofDukeUniversityand YiZeng
PekingUniversity

Acknowledgments
TheresearchreportedinthisbookwasmainlysupportedbyNIA/NIHSBIRPhaseI
and Phase II project grants, which received the best possible evaluation score
(zero percentile rank), and China National Natural Science Foundation grants
(71110107025 and 71233001). We also thank the Population Division of
U.S. Census Bureau, NIA (grant 1R03AG18647-1A1), NICHD (grant 5 R01
HD41042-03), Duke University, Peking University, and the Max Planck Institute
forDemographicResearchforsupportingrelatedbasicandappliedresearch.
Wesincerelythankourcolleagueswhocontributedtoourpreviouscollaborative
research or supported our research related to this book, including the following
researchers (listed alphabetically): John Bongaarts, H. Booth, O’Neil C. Brain,
Shuai Cao, Huaming Chai, Huashuai Chen, Lingguo Cheng, Simon Choi, Ansley
Coale, Harvey J. Cohen, Ted Chu, Paul Demeny, Zhiheng Ding, Qiushi Feng,
Changqing Gan, Ning Gao, Linda K. George, Daniel Goodkind, Todd Graham,
Zhigang Guo, Helin Huang, Angang Hu, Nicole Keilman, Nancy Keyfitz, Cheng
Jiang,LeiwenJiang,WeipingJiang,RonLee,RonLesthaeghe,ChunhuaLi,Faju
Li, Jianxin Li, Lan Li, Ling Li, Qiang Li, Shuang Liang, Zhiwu Liang, Nan Lin,
Justin Yifu Lin, Yuzhi Liu, Jiehua Lu, Wolfgang Lutz, Andrew Mason, Jane
Menken, Philip S. Morgan, Jessie Norris, Diane Parham, Xiezhi Peng, Alexia
Prskawetz, Jessica Sautter, Melania Sereny, Ke Shen, Weiheng Shi, Wenzhao
Shi,StanleyK.Smith, EricStallard,Paul Shultz,BeckyTesh, FengWang,James
W.Vaupel,FransWillekens,JohnWilmoth,DeqingWu,QiongWu,ZhenyuXiao,
YuXie,ChangliYang,AnatoliYashin,XuejunYu,ChunyuanZhang,ZhenZhang,
Zhongwei Zhao, Zhenzhen Zheng, Zhiheng Ding, Liquan Zhou, Yun Zhou, and
Hania Zlotnik. Thanks also go to many scholars who participated in the software
usability tests and provided helpful comments to make ProFamy software a user-
friendlypackage.
Notethatmostofthecontentsofthisbookarebasedonourupdated,extended,
and improved previous research related to the ProFamy extended cohort-
component method and its applications to the United States and China, published
since 1997 in Demography, Population and Development Review, Population
ResearchandPolicyReview,DemographicResearch,JournalofAgingandHealth,
ix