High Penetration of Renewable Energy

33 Pages·2014·3.26 MB·English

by  Trieu Mai

High Penetration of Renewable Energy:
Possible Scenarios, Implications, and Best
Practices from International Experience
John Reilly
MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy
of Global Change
Renewable Electricity Futures Study (2012). Hand, M.M.; Baldwin, S.; DeMeo, E.; Reilly, J.M.; Mai, T.; Arent,
D.; Porro, G.; Meshek, M.; Sandor, D., editors. Lead authors include Mai, T.; Sandor, D.; Wiser, R.; Heath, G.;
Augustine, C.; Bain, R.; Chapman, J.; Denholm, P.; Drury, E.; Hall, D.; Lantz, E.; Margolis, R.; Thresher, R.;
Hostick, D.; Belzer, D.; Hadley, S.; Markel, T.; Marnay, C.; Milligan, M.; Ela, E.; Hein, J.; Schneider, T.
NREL is a national laboratory of the U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy, operated bythe Alliance for Sustainable Energy, LLC.
Renewable Electricity Futures Motivation
RE Capacity Growth 2000-2010
Source: RE Data Book (DOE 2011)
• To what extent can renewable energy technologies
commercially available today meet the U.S. electricity
demand over the next several decades?
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Challenges for Intermittent Renewables
• Wind and solar are not “dispatchable”
• Is intermittency well-timed with demand?
o Seasonally
o Daily
• Is supply predictable?
o Weekly
o Hourly
o Minutes to seconds
• Is supply where you need it?
• Large area footprint—objections to siting.
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U.S. Wind Resource and Intermittency
An Inconvenient Coincidence?
Median Wind Power Density W/M2 Degree of Anti-Coincidence
Results for 80 meter Hub height and data coverage: 1979-2009
Areas of largest central tendency of wind power resource are also areas that
experience the strongest and most expansive coincident intermittency.
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The effects of correlated wind at different locations on ramping
requirements
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Regional Supply…and Demand Centers
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Regional Differences in the US
Fraction of Grid Points in Midwest with Power (1979)
Degree of Anti-Coincidence
Less than 40% of the Midwest area is typically able to produce wind power. There’s a high variability in the
winter and low coverage in the summer (sometimes zero).
East/West Coast benefit from anti-coincidence and significant offshore resources with high power density.
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U.S. Availability and Wind Episode Length
Availability Median Episode Length
(Hours)
Wind “Episode” defined as continuous period that
“Availability” =
power density > 200 W/M2
Generally speaking, where wind power is “available” corresponds to where continuous episodes are
prolonged.
Largest availability and episode length is in offshore resources.
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Daily load and intermittency—sometimes it works, and
sometimes it doesn’t.
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Solar, more predictable/regular, except for clouds
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