Handbook on Climate Change and Agriculture

532 Pages·2012·21.24 MB·English

by  Ariel Dinar

HANDBOOK ON CLIMATE CHANGE AND
AGRICULTURE
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Handbook on Climate Change and
Agriculture
Edited by
Ariel Dinar
University of California, Riverside, USA
and
Robert Mendelsohn
Yale University, USA
Edward Elgar
Cheltenham, UK • Northampton, MA, USA
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© Ariel Dinar and Robert Mendelsohn 2011
All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system or
transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical or photocopying, recording, or
otherwise without the prior permission of the publisher.
Published by
Edward Elgar Publishing Limited
The Lypiatts
15 Lansdown Road
Cheltenham
Glos GL50 2JA
UK
Edward Elgar Publishing, Inc.
William Pratt House
9 Dewey Court
Northampton
Massachusetts 01060
USA
A catalogue record for this book
is available from the British Library
Library of Congress Control Number: 2009930434
ISBN 978 1 84980 116 4 (cased)
Typeset by Servis Filmsetting Ltd, Stockport, Cheshire
Printed and bound by MPG Books Group, UK
2
0
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Contents
List of contributors vii
Acknowledgments xvi
1 Introduction 1
Ariel Dinar and Robert Mendelsohn
PART I AGRONOMIC STUDIES OF CLIMATE IMPACTS AND
ADAPTATION
2 Climate change, carbon dioxide and global crop production: food security
and uncertainty 9
Lewis H. Ziska
3 Eff ects of climate variability on domestic livestock 32
Terry L. Mader and John B. Gaughan
4 From the farmer to global food production: use of crop models for climate
change impact assessment 49
Ana Iglesias, Jeremy Schlickenrieder, David Pereira and Agustín Diz
5 Investigating the connections between climate change, drought and
agricultural production 73
Michael Hayes, Donald A. Wilhite, Mark Svoboda and Miroslav Trnka
PART II ECONOMIC STUDIES OF CLIMATE IMPACTS ON
AGRICULTURE
6 Farm- level impacts of climate change: alternative approaches for modeling
uncertainty 89
Dannele E. Peck and Richard M. Adams
7 Using panel data models to estimate the economic impacts of climate change
on agriculture 112
Olivier Deschenes and Michael Greenstone
8 The impact of climate change on US agriculture: a repeated cross- sectional
Ricardian analysis 141
Emanuele Massetti and Robert Mendelsohn
PART III AGRICULTURAL IMPACTS ON THE ECONOMY
9 Economy- wide impacts of climate change on agriculture – case study for
adaptation strategies in sub- Saharan Africa 169
Alvaro Calzadilla, Tingju Zhu, Katrin Rehdanz, Richard S.J. Tol and
Claudia Ringler
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vi Contents
10 Integrated assessment models – the interplay of climate change, agriculture
and land use in a policy tool 204
Marian Leimbach, Alexander Popp, Hermann Lotze- Campen, Nico Bauer,
Jan Philipp Dietrich and David Klein
11 The role of growth and trade in agricultural adaptation to environmental
change 230
John Reilly
PART IV AGRICULTURAL MITIGATION
12 Biofuels and climate change 271
Gal Hochman, Deepak Rajagopal and David Zilberman
13 The present and future role for agricultural projects under the Clean
Development Mechanism 292
Donald F. Larson, Ariel Dinar and J. Aapris Frisbie
PART V ADAPTATION TO AGRICULTURAL IMPACTS
14 Agricultural adaptation: needs, fi ndings and eff ects 327
Ruth A. Aisabokhae, Bruce A. McCarl and Yuquan W. Zhang
15 Hydro- economic modeling to assess climate impact and adaptation for
agriculture in California 342
Josué Medellín- Azuara, Richard E. Howitt and Jay R. Lund
16 Reducing the impact of global climate change on agriculture – the use of
endogenous irrigation and protected agriculture technology 355
Aliza Fleischer and Pradeep Kurukulasuriya
17 Climate change and technological innovation in agriculture: adaptation
through science 382
Douglas Gollin
18 Adaptation to climate change in mixed crop–livestock farming systems in
developing countries 402
Philip K. Thornton, Mario Herrero and Peter G. Jones
19 Insurance as an adaptation to climate variability in agriculture 420
Alberto Garrido, María Bielza, Dolores Rey, M. Inés Mínguez and
M. Ruiz- Ramos
20 An analysis of the choice of livestock species under global warming in
African and Latin American farms 446
S. Niggol Seo
21 Climate change, drought and agriculture: the role of eff ective institutions and
infrastructure 466
R. Maria Saleth, Ariel Dinar and J. Aapris Frisbie
22 Conclusion and future research 486
Robert Mendelsohn and Ariel Dinar
Index 499
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Contributors
Richard M. Adams is Professor Emeritus of Resource Economics at Oregon State
University, Corvallis. His research interests include resource and environmental issues,
with an emphasis on water management. He has published over 100 peer- reviewed arti-
cles and 20 books or book chapters, and also serves on numerous federal and interna-
tional advisory boards dealing with water and other environmental issues.
Ruth A. Aisabokhae is a PhD candidate and research assistant in the Department of
Agricultural Economics at Texas A&M University, College Station. She completed a
Masters in Agricultural Development Economics from the University of Reading, UK in
2005 and has been a Schlumberger Faculty for the Future Grant Recipient since 2008. Her
research interests include environmental economics, especially climate change issues, inter-
national trade and rural development. She is active in a number of professional associations
and has also convened two conferences in Africa to empower young women in the sciences.
Nico Bauer holds a PhD in Economics from Potsdam University. After working at
Fondazione ENI Enrico Mattei (Italy) in the Climate Change Modeling and Policy pro-
gramme, and Paul-S cherrer Institute (Switzerland) in the Energy Economics Modeling
group, he returned to the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research. He is engaged in
the development of modeling tools and responsible for the research group on energy System
Modeling (with Gunnar Luderer) and Macroeconomic Modeling (with Marian Leimbach).
María Bielza is Assistant Professor of Agricultural Economics at the Technical University
of Madrid (UPM), and researcher at the Research Centre for the Management of
Agricultural and Environmental Risks (CEIGRAM). She has participated in Spanish
and European projects, and has several publications on agricultural risk management,
including market risks, insurance and derivatives. During her previous working experi-
ence at the Joint Research Centre (European Commission) she has contributed to the
JRC Reference Report ‘Agricultural Insurance Schemes’, which reviewed risk man-
agement in all EU member states. She holds a PhD in Agricultural Economics from
UPM and a Diplôme d’Agronomie Approfondie in Agricultural Development from the
Institut National Agronomique Paris-Grignon.
Alvaro Calzadilla is a research economist at the Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
He holds a Masters degree in Economics from Universidad Andina Simón Bolivar,
and is currently pursuing a PhD in Economics from Hamburg University and the
International Max Planck Research School on Earth System Modeling. He specializes
in economic and econometric modeling, particularly computable general equilibrium
models applied to the analysis of climate change, agriculture, water resources, income
distribution, poverty and development.
Olivier Deschenes is Associate Professor of Economics at the University of California
Santa Barbara, where he is also affi liated with the Bren School of Environmental
Management. He is a also Research Associate at the National Bureau of Economic
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viii Contributors
Research (NBER), the co- associate director of the University of California Center for
Energy and Environmental Economics (UCE3) and holds a PhD in Economics from
Princeton University.
Jan Philipp Dietrich studied Physics at the University of Potsdam and is a PhD student at
the Potsdam Institute of Climate Impact Research. His research focuses on agricultural
land-u se modeling, the role of technological change in the agricultural sector, and the
estimation of future bioenergy potentials and their impact on the environment.
Ariel Dinar is Professor of Environmental Economics and Policy at the Department of
Environmental Sciences, and Director of the Water Science and Policy Center at the
University of California, Riverside. He earned his PhD in Agricultural and Resource
Economics from the Hebrew University of Jerusalem. His work focuses on economics of
water resources, impact of and adaptation to climate change in agriculture, and institu-
tional economics of water and natural resources.
Agustín Diz holds an MSc in Anthropology and Development from the London School
of Economics and works as a research assistant at the Department of Agricultural
Economics of the Technical University of Madrid (UPM). His current work focuses on
the areas of water policy and the socioeconomic impacts of climate change.
Aliza Fleischer is an associate professor in the Agricultural Economics Department at the
Hebrew University of Jerusalem, Israel. As an economist in the GLOWA Jordan River
project, she deals with economic impacts of climate change. She evaluated the impact of
climate change on the value of ecosystem services of range land and on the profi tability
of farm land. She also analyzed the impact of climate change on the farm sector in Israel.
Application of the model to Israel with its high- tech agriculture gave a new insight to
farmers’ adaptation mechanism to climate change.
J. Aapris Frisbie is a Master’s student in the Geological Sciences Department at the
University of California, Riverside who is currently researching soil carbon sequestra-
tion along an elevational transect in the White Mountains of eastern California. She is
interested in researching the mitigation potential of soil in regard to climate change, as
well as developing models to assess to sequestration potential of soils in California.
Alberto Garrido is a professor of Agricultural and Resource Economics at the Technical
University of Madrid (UPM). He is the Director of the Research Centre for the
Management of Agricultural and Environmental Risks (CEIGRAM), a research centre
of the UPM. He has published extensively in water and natural resource economics, risk
management and insurance in agriculture, agricultural policy and sustainability assess-
ment. He is also deputy director of the Water Observatory of the Botin Foundation and
member of the Advisory Committee of the Rosenberg International Forum on Water
Policy. He has published more than 115 papers, chapters and monographs.
John B. Gaughan is a senior lecturer at the University of Queensland. He earned a
MAgrSci and a PhD from the University of Queensland. Dr Gaughan is currently
involved in studies investigating the eff ects of climate variability, and climatic eff ects,
in particular heat stress on livestock production and welfare. Output from these studies
includes the development of risk assessment programs for feedlot beef and dairy cows.
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Contributors ix
Collaborative research is ongoing with colleagues in the USA and Australia. He is
author or co- author of over 60 scientifi c publications.
Douglas Gollin received his PhD from the University of Minnesota. He is a profes-
sor of Economics at Williams College, Williamstown, Massachusetts with interests
in agriculture, economic growth and development. He has worked in Africa and
Asia in collaboration with various international organizations. He has published in
American Economic Review, Journal of Political Economy, Science, American Journal of
Agricultural Economics and other journals. He currently serves as an associate editor for
the journals Agricultural Economics and Journal of Development Economics.
Michael Greenstone is the 3M Professor of Environmental Economics in the Department
of Economics at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, and the director of the
Hamilton Project. He is on the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) Energy
Initiative’s Energy Council and on MIT’s Environmental Research Council. In addition,
he is a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution and a research associate at the National
Bureau of Economic Research. Greenstone received a PhD in Economics from Princeton
University and a BA in Economics with High Honors from Swarthmore College.
Michael Hayes is currently the Director for the National Drought Mitigation Center
(NDMC) located within the School of Natural Resources at the University of Nebraska–
Lincoln. He became the NDMC’s director in August 2007 and has worked at the NDMC
since 1995. The NDMC now has 21 faculty and staff working on local, tribal, state,
national and international drought-, climate- and water-r elated issues. Dr Hayes’s main
interests deal with drought monitoring, planning and mitigation strategies. Over the
past ten years, Dr Hayes has been an author or co- author on 27 peer- reviewed articles
in 16 diff erent journals. He is currently a co- chair on the National Integrated Drought
Information System’s Program Implementation Team. Dr Hayes received a Bachelors
Degree in Meteorology from the University of Wisconsin–Madison, and his Masters and
Doctoral Degrees in Atmospheric Sciences from the University of Missouri–Columbia.
Mario Herrero is a senior agro- ecological systems analyst with more than 15 years
experience working in agriculture and livestock research projects in Africa, Asia, Latin
America and Europe. He works in the areas of livestock and global change, socio-
economic and environmental tradeoff s in livestock systems, climate change (impact,
adaptation and mitigation) and integrated assessment of agricultural systems at diff erent
scales (household to global). He holds a PhD in Natural Resource Management from the
University of Edinburgh and has published extensively in his areas of expertise.
Gal Hochman holds a PhD in Economics from Columbia University. He is a visit-
ing scholar at the Agricultural and Resource Economics Department, University of
California, Berkeley, and a researcher at the Energy and Bioscience Institute. His
ongoing research interests revolve around trade, energy and regulation. His current work
focuses on the impact of renewable energy on the fuel, heat and power industry, as well
as on agriculture, the environment and the fi ber sector.
Richard E. Howitt is a professor and chair in the Department of Agricultural and Resource
Economics at the University of California in Davis. His research focuses on the interface
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