Table Of ContentInternational Series in Operations Research
& Management Science
Volume 183
SeriesEditor
FrederickS.Hillier
StanfordUniversity,CA,USA
SpecialEditorialConsultant
CamilleC.Price
StephenF.AustinStateUniversity,TX,USA
For furthervolumes:
http://www.springer.com/series/6161
Jeffrey W. Herrmann
Editor
Handbook of Operations
Research for Homeland
Security
Editor
JeffreyW.Herrmann
A.JamesClarkSchoolofEngineering
UniversityofMaryland
CollegePark,Maryland,USA
ISSN0884-8289
ISBN978-1-4614-5277-5 ISBN978-1-4614-5278-2(eBook)
DOI10.1007/978-1-4614-5278-2
SpringerNewYorkHeidelbergDordrechtLondon
LibraryofCongressControlNumber:2012948967
#SpringerScience+BusinessMediaNewYork2013
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This book is dedicated to my family, whose
love and encouragement are the most
wonderful of the many blessings that God
has given to me.
Preface
Thepurposeofthisbookistoenlightenpolicymakersanddecisionmakersabout
thepowerofoperationsresearch(OR)tohelporganizationsplanforandrespondto
terroristattacks,naturaldisasters,andpublichealthemergencies.
The intended audience includes (1) policy makers and decision makers in
federal, state, and local government agencies related to homeland security,
emergency management, and public health preparedness; (2) nongovernment
organizationswithsimilarmissions;and(3)operationsresearchworkers,students,
andscholars.
This book begins with a general overview of how operations research can be
used and then provides specific examples of operations research techniques and
theirapplicationtohomelandsecurityproblems.
Chapter 1, “Using Operations Research Methods for Homeland Security
Problems,” describes OR techniques and highlights their use to solve homeland
security problems. This is intended to give policy makers and decision makers
insightintowhatORcandoandhowitisrelevanttotheirparticularconcernsand
problems. After discussing how to use OR, the chapter reviews four areas: (1)
understandingwhathashappened;(2)consideringwhatcouldhappen;(3)deciding
whattodo;and(4)findingthebestsolution.
Chapter 2, “Operations Research and Homeland Security: Overview and Case
StudyofPandemicInfluenza,”providesadditionalcontextbydescribingtheorigins
of operations research (OR) at the beginning of World War II and reviewing OR
tools and techniques that can be used for three types of decisions: long range
(strategic), medium range (tactical), and real time (operational). It then discusses
theresultsofastudyoftheprocessofmanufacturing,delivering,andadministering
thefluvaccineduringthe2009influenzapandemic.
Chapter3,“DeployedSecurityGamesforPatrolPlanning,”presentsmodelsthat
can help security forces generate randomized security policies that are more
difficult for adversaries to predict and exploit. The chapter describes a generic
mathematical formulation of these models, presents some of the results that have
allowed these systems to be deployed in practice, and outlines remaining future
challenges.Thechapterdiscussesthedeploymentofthesesystemsintwohomeland
vii
viii Preface
security applications: (1) the police at the Los Angeles International Airport use
these models to randomize the placement of checkpoints on roads entering the
airport and the routes of canine unit patrols within the airport terminals and
(2)theFederalAirMarshalServiceusesthesemodelstorandomizetheschedules
ofairmarshalsoninternationalflights.
Chapter 4, “Interdiction Models and Applications,” describes an approach for
assessingthevulnerabilitiesofoperationalsystems.Interdictionmodelscanbeused
to answer the following questions: How is the system operated? What are the
vulnerabilities of that system? How can we invest to make the system more
resilient?Thischapterdiscussestheapplicationofthesemodelstofourproblems:
(1) delaying an enemy’s development of a nuclear weapon; (2) understanding the
vulnerabilities of an electric power system; (3) locating sensors that can rapidly
detect the contamination of a municipal water system; and (4) locating radiation
sensors to detect nuclear smugglers. The chapter also discusses practical
implicationsandinsightsobtainedfromthemodelsintheseapplications.
Chapter5,“TimeDiscrepantShipmentsinManifestData,”presentsaninnova-
tive data mining technique for identifying suspicious activity by identifying and
recordingunusualpatternsthathavehighactivity.Thechapterfocusesoncontainer
shipments to US ports. By analyzing the origin–destination pairs, container
contents,andshipmentdates,theprocedurecreatesavarietyofgraphstovisualize
theshipmentactivity,measuresthediscrepancyofshipmentpatterns,anddistillsa
datafossilthataggregatesthesepatternsovertime.
Chapter 6, “Achieving Realistic Levels of Defensive Hedging Based on
Non-Monotonic and Multi-Attribute Terrorist Utility Functions,” addresses the
problem of allocating limited resources to defend a set of targets. When there is
uncertainty about which targets the terrorists are most likely to attack, decision
makers are likely to insist on some degree of “hedging” (defending targets with
onlymoderatevalue).Theworkdiscussedinthischapterusesgametheorytofind
the optimal strategy for the defender and shows that non-monotonic attacker
objectivefunctionsdotypicallyyieldgreaterhedging.
Chapter 7, “Mitigating the Risk of an Anthrax Attack with Medical
Countermeasures,” presents a simulation model that can be used to prepare for a
bioterrorismattackthatreleasesanthraxsporesandexposesthousandsofpersonsto
this deadly disease. The model predicts the expected number of deaths using
information about the sizeof the population, the number exposed,the progress of
thedisease,theresourcesavailablefordistributingmedicationandtreatingtheill,
and the size of local medication stockpiles. The chapter also presents a risk
management approach for allocating a limited medication stockpile to multiple
citiestominimizetheexpectednumberofdeaths.Theresultsshowthattheoptimal
allocationcanbequitedifferentfromallocationsthatareproportionaltopopulation
size.
Chapter 8, “Service Networks for Public Health and Medical Preparedness:
Medical Countermeasures Dispensing and Large-scale Disaster Relief Efforts,”
discussestheresultsofcollaborationsbetweenORexperts,theCentersforDisease
ControlandPrevention,andotherpublichealthagenciestodevelopusefultoolsfor
Preface ix
planningeffortstorespondtopublichealthemergencies.Suchemergenciesinclude
bioterrorismattacks,naturallyoccurringpandemics,andseveremeteorologicaland
geological events. In paricular, the chapter describes OR models for optimizing
massdispensingoperations.
Chapter 9, “Disaster Response Planning in the Private Sector and the Role of
Operations Research,” discusses how organizations in the private sector can be
effective first responders in the aftermath of disasters. The chapter describes the
disaster response planning process implemented by The Home Depot, discusses
the role of OR methods to assist decision making, and presents an optimization
modeltoimproveadvancepurchasingandinventoryallocation.
This book is the result of a team effort. The authors who contributed their
valuabletimetoproducetheinformativechaptersthatcomprisethisvolumemust
bethankedfirst.Iappreciatetheirefforttodevelop,write,andrevisetheirchapters
andcompletethenecessarysupportingtasks.
IwouldliketothankFredHillierforinvitingmetoeditthishandbook,foritisan
honor to be a part of this distinguished series. My thanks also go to Matthew
Amboy,whoguidedtheprocessoftransformingourchaptersandideasintoabook.
In addition to caring for our family, my wife Laury provided useful editorial
assistance, and I appreciate the time and effort that she spent helping me on this
project.
Finally, I am indebted to my generous family and the wonderful friends,
colleagues, teachers, and students who have shared their wisdom, energy, and
talentswithme.
Maryland,USA JeffreyW.Herrmann
