Handbook of Climate Change Mitigation and Adaptation

3313 Pages·2017·102.63 MB·English

by  Wei-Yin Chen

Wei-Yin Chen
Toshio Suzuki
Maximilian Lackner
Editors
Handbook of
Climate Change
Mitigation
and Adaptation
Second Edition
Handbook of Climate Change Mitigation and
Adaptation
(cid:129)
Wei-Yin Chen Toshio Suzuki
Maximilian Lackner
Editors
Handbook of Climate
Change Mitigation and
Adaptation
Second Edition
With1108Figuresand352Tables
Editors
Wei-YinChen ToshioSuzuki
DepartmentofChemicalEngineering NationalInstituteofAdvancedIndustrial
UniversityofMississippi ScienceandTechnology(AIST)
Oxford,MS,USA Nagoya,Japan
MaximilianLackner
InstituteofAdvancedEngineering
Technologies
UniversityofAppliedSciencesFH
TechnikumWien
Vienna,Austria
ISBN978-3-319-14408-5 ISBN978-3-319-14409-2(eBook)
ISBN978-3-319-14410-8(printandelectronicbundle)
DOI10.1007/978-3-319-14409-2
LibraryofCongressControlNumber:2016946080
1stedition:#SpringerScience+BusinessMedia,LLC2012
#SpringerInternationalPublishingSwitzerland2017
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Foreword
Scientific evidence is mounting that human activities have begun to change global
climate. As a consequence, attention is increasingly turning in the public, private,
and nonprofit sectors to the options available for dealing with that change. As we
graduallybegintorealize,actuallyonlythreeoptionsareavailabletous:mitigation,
adaptation,andsuffering.Mitigatingclimatechangemeanscuttingandsequestering
emissions of greenhouse gases to prevent further increases in their atmospheric
concentrations and perhaps even reducing concentrations to levels deemed less
unsafethantheonestowhichtheyhavebeendrivensincethestartoftheindustrial
revolution. Adaptation means finding ways that can help reduce the impacts of
climate change on society, the various sectors of its economy, and the places in
which we live – be those small rural villages or the cities and towns that by now
housethemajorityofthehumanpopulation,thataccountforthebulkofinfrastruc-
ture investments, and that contribute most to energy consumption and carbon
emissions.Totheextentthatmitigationandadaptationeffortsaretootimid,suffer-
ingwillinevitablyresult.
What are safe concentrations of greenhouse gases is a topic of vigorous debate
becausewedonotyetfullyunderstandthecoupledearthsystemandhumansystem
dynamicsthatwillplaythemselvesoutinaworldofunprecedentedgreenhousegas
concentrations.Howhighistoohighwillbeknownwellafterthepointofnoreturn
has been reached, that is when developments in the global biogeochemical system
arekickedofftomoveinadirectionandratethatcannotbeundone.Icesheetsmay
meltandfreethemethaneandcarbondioxidelonglockedupinthesoilsunderneath,
thusfurtheracceleratingclimatechange.Majoroceancurrents,whichmovewaters
and nutrients to support the biological activity in the seas, may abruptly change
direction or entirely cease. The established precipitation and temperature patterns,
whicharesocentraltoagriculture,maybealteredinwaysthatfurtherchallengeour
abilities to feed a growing human population. And so, the extent to which we
embracemitigation,inpart,reflectsouraversion–ordesire–totakerisksinmatters
pertainingnotjusttothestabilityofglobalclimateconditionsbuttheglobalhuman
conditionandthatofotherspeciesmorebroadly.
It is against this backdrop that this volume illuminates humanity’s mitigation
options.Fromitscoverageitisquiteobviousthatthereisnomagicknifewithwhich
tocutemissions,becausethesourcesofemissionsarevariedandintricatelywoven
v
vi Foreword
into the very fabric of our society and economy. Movement from oil, coal, and
natural gas, for example, to biological feedstocks for the production of fuels and
chemicalsisanessentialstrategytodecarbonizeoureconomies,buttheeffectofthis
strategy hinges on the extent to which production of biomass can decouple itself
from fossil-based generation of fertilizers and pesticides, minimize land conversa-
tion, and prevent the associated release of carbon from soils and impacts on
biodiversity. Other, at least equally daunting, challenges surround the conversion
ofsyngastofuel;thedeploymentofgeothermal, solar,andfusiontechnology;and
the various means to sequester greenhouse gases. Policy and investment decision
makers who wish to navigate and shape the resultant dynamics are further chal-
lengedintheirabilitiestounderstandandprojectresourceandemissionstrendsinto
thefuturebecause oftherapid changesintechnologies andmarkets,aswellasthe
emergenceofnew,majorplayersinthegame,suchashashappenedinrecentyears
withtheproliferationofshaleoilandshalegasdevelopments.
Even if the production of new sources of energy and materials can occur with
loweremissions,theendusetechnologiesandinfrastructuresneedtobeinplaceto
take full advantage of these improvements. This will require changes in our built
environment – from houses to transportation networks to energy storage to power
grids and beyond. These changes, in turn, will, at least for the foreseeable future,
requirecontinueduseofexistinginfrastructuresthathavedevelopedaroundtheuse
ofconventionalfuelsandlandusepractices.
Decarbonizationattheprocesslevel,evenwhencombinedwiththemostaggres-
siveefficiencyimprovementsintheendusesofmaterialsandenergy,howeveronly
translatestonetreductionsinemissionsif“otherinfluences”donotoverwhelmthe
rates at which these improvements are realized. Among these other influences are
economic growth that comes from generating ever larger production of output,
population growth that leads to ever more demand for goods and services, and
climatechangeitselfthatistriggeringaneedforsurplusproductiontobuiltupour
safetynets–frompersonalinsurancetolarge-scalefloodcontrolsystems–thatcan
helpusweatheradverseclimateconditions.
Inthefinalanalysis,itistheinterplayoftechnologychange,behavioralchange,
institutionalchange,andenvironmentalchangethatmustbemanagedformitigation
tobecomeeffective.Howwellthatinterplayisorchestratedwillinlargepartdepend
on our ability to provide the right incentives for climate mitigation – be it through
international agreements or through unilateral action, through market-based
approaches, direct government intervention, or a mix of them all. Our success will
beindicativenotjustofthetechnologicalprowessofourage,butalsoofthevalues
andinstitutionsthatguideouractions.
Despite all efforts to stabilize and perhaps even reduce, in the long run, atmo-
sphericgreenhousegasconcentrations,humanshavealreadycommittedthemselves
todecadesoftemperaturechangesandcenturiesofsealevelrise.And,toworsenthe
outlook, rising global temperatures and sea levels will be accompanied by many
other changes in our biophysical and socioeconomic environment. Since the heat
budgetoftheglobewillbedisturbed,thefrequencyandseverityofextremeweather
eventswilllikelyincrease.Disruptionsinbiophysicalconditionswilltrigger,andbe
Foreword vii
triggered by, changes in ecosystems – including changes in the productivity of
managed forests and croplands, as well as changes in the distribution of pests and
diseases.Theassociatedtighteningofresourceconstraintswillunderminetheliveli-
hoodsofpeople,displacepopulations,andinflictpainanddeath.
There are unlikely to be long-term winners from climate change. None of the
placesalreadysufferingfromshortagesinwaterandfood,forexample,orflooding
andcrumblinginfrastructureswill,inthelongrun,bebetteroffbecauseofclimate
change.Eveniftheydofeellike“winners”temporarily–perhapsbecausethelength
of growing seasons increases with rising temperatures or a melting of sea ice
improves shipping and boosts their economy – those benefits are fleeting. Climate
will not stop changing once optimal conditions are reached, and benefits in one
sectormayalreadybeoverwhelmedbycostsimposedonotherpartsoftheeconomy
andsociety.Clearly,someformofadaptationwillneedtotakeplace.
Ideally,adaptationstrategiesareimplementednotjustasclimatechangeunfolds,
but in anticipation of any further climate change so that people, economic sectors,
cities and their infrastructures, as well as natural systems such as wetlands and
forests,arebetterpreparedfor,andperhapsevenprotectedfrom,furtherdisruptions.
But even if there were no further climate change, there already is considerable
variability in the weather conditions with which people, economic sectors, cities,
and natural systems must cope. Maintaining vital wetlands well before flooding
events will help provide natural buffers for coastal communities. Creating redun-
danciesinlifelineinfrastructures,suchasthedifferentwaysofpoweringbusinesses
andhomesfromcentralizedpowerplantsandsmall-scalegenerators,willallowfor
switching across electricity sources during extreme weather events, for example.
Andpromotingmoreefficientenergyuseinthefirstplacewillreducetherelianceon
some of that energy. To the extent that adaptation helps reduce already existing
inefficiencies, it can make good social, economic, and environmental sense
irrespectiveofthedetailswithwhichfutureclimateconditionsmanifestthemselves.
The conclusion one may draw that “less mitigation today can be balanced by
more adaptation in the future,” however, is misleading. It suggests that the two
strategiesare,atsomeabstractlevel,substitutable.Inreality,though,lessmitigation
todaymeansnotjustaneedformoreadaptationinthefuture.Rather,lessmitigation
today means more adaptation over more of our future, because even reduced
emissions continue to add to atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations, and
becausethedamagesthatresultwillbecumulativeinnature–heatwaves,droughts,
and flooding events, for example, will continuously undermine our wealth and
welfare and require ever larger diversion of resources to address the causes and
effects of climate change. Understanding the role of mitigation and choosing the
proper mitigation strategies is, therefore, an essential forebear to anything else we
may be doing about climate change. Recognizing the urgency for preparedness,
given the extent to which humanity has already committed itself to a changing
climate,iscentraltomotivatinginvestmentinnewtechnologies,changesinbehav-
iors,anddeploymentofinfrastructuresthatcanbetterwithstandthevagariesofthe
climate.
viii Foreword
A worldview that is consistent with this understanding sees mitigation and
adaptation as complements, offers them as strategies to address persistent and
nascent inefficiencies, and treats them as a package that substitutes for the only
other option available, namely suffering. It is in this sense that this Handbook of
Climate Change Mitigation and Adaptation provides valuable insights into the
preconditionsforaprosperousfuture.
SchoolofPublicPolicyandUrbanAffairs MatthiasRuth
NortheasternUniversity DirectorandProfessor
Boston,MA,USA
Contents
Volume 1
PartI ScientificEvidencesofClimateChangeand
SocietalIssues ............................................ 1
IntroductiontoClimateChangeMitigation ...................... 3
MaximilianLackner,Wei-YinChen,andToshioSuzuki
LossandDamageAssociatedwithClimateChangeImpacts ........ 17
LintaM.MathewandSoniaAkter
PaleoclimateChangesandSignificanceofPresentGlobal
Warming ................................................. 47
AsadullahKazi
LifeCycleAssessmentofGreenhouseGasEmissions .............. 61
L.Reijnders
SomeEconomicsofInternationalClimatePolicy ................. 93
KarenPittel,DirkR€ubbelke,MartinAltemeyer-Bartscher,and
SebastianOtte
EthicsandEnvironmentalPolicy .............................. 127
DavidJ.RutherfordandEricThomasWeber
MassMediaRolesinClimateChangeMitigation ................. 167
KristenAlleySwain
EconomicsforaSustainablePlanet ............................ 221
ArifS.Malik
EmissionsTrading ......................................... 257
RogerRaufer,PaulaCoussy,CarlaFreeman,andSudhaIyer
ix
x Contents
CarbonMarkets:LinkingtheInternationalEmissionTradingUnder
theUnitedNationsFrameworkConventiononClimateChange
(UNFCCC)andtheEuropeanUnionEmissionTradingScheme
(EUETS) ................................................ 313
ItziarMartínezdeAlegría,GonzaloMolina,andBeléndelRío
EuropeanUnion(EU)StrategytoFacetheClimateChange
ChallengeintheFrameworkoftheInternationalCommitments ..... 341
ItziarMartínezdeAlegría,María-AzucenaVicente-Molina,and
CristianMoore
ImplicationsofClimateChangeforthePetrochemicalIndustry:
MitigationMeasuresandFeedstockTransitions .................. 383
SimonJ.BennettandHollyA.Page
VentureCapitalInvestmentandTrendinCleanTechnologies ....... 427
JohnC.P.Huang
AnalysisoftheCo-benefitsofClimateChangeMitigation .......... 477
DouglasCrawford-Brown
TheRoleofAviationinClimateChangeMitigation ............... 489
KatsuyaHihara
PartII ImpactofClimateChangeandAdaptation ............. 525
CarbonLiability ........................................... 527
YoshihiroFujii
ClimateChangeandCarbonSequestrationinForestEcosystems .... 555
DafengHui,QiDeng,HanqinTian,andYiqiLuo
ImpactofClimateChangeonBiodiversity ...................... 595
DavidH.Reed
Sea-LevelRiseandHazardousStorms:ImpactAssessmentonCoasts
andEstuaries ............................................. 621
YanDing
ProjectedImpactsofClimaticChangesonCiscoOxythermalHabitat
inMinnesotaLakesandManagementStrategies .................. 657
XingFang,HeinzG.Stefan,LipingJiang,PeterC.Jacobson,and
DonaldL.Pereira
ImpactofClimateChangeonCropProduction .................. 723
GamalElAfandi