Handbook of climate change and agroecosystems : the agricultural model intercomparison and improvement project integrated crop and economic assessments

1159 Pages·2015·304.14 MB·English

by  Daniel Hillel

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HANDBOOK OF
CLIMATE CHANGE
AND AGROECOSYSTEMS
The Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project
Integrated Crop and Economic Assessments, Part 1
Joint Publication with American Society of Agronomy, Crop Science
Society of America, and Soil Science Society of America
P970V1_9781783265664_tp.indd 1 19/1/15 9:00 am
ICP Series on Climate Change Impacts, Adaptation,
and Mitigation
Editors-in-Chief:Daniel Hillel and Cynthia Rosenzweig
(Columbia Univ. and Goddard Institute for Space Studies, USA)
Vol. 1: Handbook of Climate Change and Agroecosystems:
Impacts, Adaptation, and Mitigation
edited by Daniel Hillel and Cynthia Rosenzweig
Vol. 2: Handbook of Climate Change and Agroecosystems:
Global and Regional Aspects and Implications —
Joint Publication with the American Society of Agronomy,
Crop Science Society of America, and Soil Science Society
of America
edited by Daniel Hillel and Cynthia Rosenzweig
Vol. 3: Handbook of Climate Change and Agroecosystems:
The Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project
(AgMIP) Integrated Crop and Economic Assessments — Joint
Publication with the American Society of America, and Soil Science
Society of America
(In 2 Parts)
edited by Daniel Hillel and Cynthia Rosenzweig
ICP Series on Climate Change Impacts, Adaptation, and Mitigation – Vol. 3
HANDBOOK OF
CLIMATE CHANGE
AND AGROECOSYSTEMS
The Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project
Integrated Crop and Economic Assessments, Part 1
editors
Cynthia Rosenzweig
Daniel Hillel
Columbia University, Center for Climate Systems Research, USA
Joint Publication with American Society of Agronomy, Crop Science
Society of America, and Soil Science Society of America
Imperial College Press
ICP
P970V1_9781783265664_tp.indd 2 19/1/15 9:00 am
Published by
Imperial College Press
57 Shelton Street
Covent Garden
London WC2H 9HE
Distributed by
World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd.
5 Toh Tuck Link, Singapore 596224
USA office: 27 Warren Street, Suite 401-402, Hackensack, NJ 07601
UK office: 57 Shelton Street, Covent Garden, London WC2H 9HE
British Library Cataloguing-in-Publication Data
A catalogue record for this book is available from the British Library.
ICP Series on Climate Change Impacts, Adaptation, and Mitigation — Vol. 3
HANDBOOK OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND AGROECOSYSTEMS
The Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP)
Integrated Crop and Economic Assessments — Joint Publication with the American Society of
Agronomy, Crop Science Society of America, and Soil Science Society of America
(In 2 Parts)
Copyright © 2015 by Imperial College Press
All rights reserved. This book, or parts thereof, may not be reproduced in any form or by any means, electronic or
mechanical, including photocopying, recording or any information storage and retrieval system now known or to
be invented, without written permission from the Publisher.
For photocopying of material in this volume, please pay a copying fee through the Copyright Clearance Center,
Inc., 222 Rosewood Drive, Danvers, MA 01923, USA. In this case permission to photocopy is not required from
the publisher.
ISBN 978-1-78326-563-3 (Set)
ISBN 978-1-78326-566-4 (Part 1)
ISBN 978-1-78326-567-1 (Part 2)
Typeset by Stallion Press
Email: [email protected]
Printed in Singapore
January19,2015 17:51 HandbookofClimateChangeandAgroecosystems 9.75inx6.5in b2010-v1-fm pagev
InmemoryofDr.NadineBrisson
(1963–2011)
Dr.BrissonwastheleaderoftheAgMIPMaizePilotStudyandanauthorityindevel-
oping tools to analyze the vulnerability of agricultural systems to climate change.
Sheisrememberedaroundtheworldforherexpertiseincropmodelingaswellasfor
herenergy,enthusiasm,andcommitmenttotheadvancementofagriculturalknowl-
edgeandunderstandingforresearchers,practitioners,policymakers,andeducators.
Herbrilliantmindandshiningspiritaremissedbyusall.
v
July25,2013 17:28 WSPC-ProceedingsTrimSize:9.75inx6.5in icmp12-master
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January19,2015 17:51 HandbookofClimateChangeandAgroecosystems 9.75inx6.5in b2010-v1-fm pagevii
Foreword
ThoughpastresearchhasstudiedtemperatureandCO effectsoncropproduction,
2
mostofithasbeendoneatthedisciplinarylevel,andhasnotfullyutilizedaninte-
gratedmulti-disciplinaryapproach,withexpertsincropandsoilsciences,together
withagronomists,computermodelers,economists,climatologists,andotherswork-
inginconjunction.ThisistheuniqueresearchprogramthatAgMIP(theAgricultural
ModelIntercomparisonandImprovementProject)hasdeveloped,seekingavolun-
tary from-the-ground-up approach to advance the field of agriculture as already
impacted,andtobefurtherimpacted,byclimatechange.
Animperativetaskofourtimeistodevelopandimplementagriculturalpractices
that can provide the food needed for the anticipated rise in the world’s population
toaround9billioninthecomingdecades,andtodososustainablywithoutdisrupt-
ing the remaining natural environment, its ecosystems, and its biota. Much of the
debate on meeting future food production goals focuses on expansion of the land
areaforagricultureand/orintensifiedcropproductiononexistingagriculturallands.
Whereasthereisnodoubtthatconcernwillfocusontheavailabilityoflandsuitable
foragricultureandonimprovedsoil,crop,andwatermanagementpractices,uncer-
tainty remains concerning the impacts of climate change on crop production.This
includes the impacts of rising temperature and atmospheric CO concentration, as
2
wellaspotentialincreasesinthefrequencyandintensityofdroughtsandfloods.
TheAmerican Society ofAgronomy (ASA), Crop Science Society ofAmerica
(CSSA),andSoilScienceSocietyofAmerica(SSSA)haveservedasthescientific
organizations to host the AgMIP scientists at their 2013 Tampa Annual Meeting,
andtobepartofthisjointpublicationwithImperialCollegePress(ICP)onClimate
Impacts,Adaptation,andMitigation.Weareespeciallyproudofthisvolumebeing
dedicated to developing, less-productive regions of Sub-SaharanAfrica and South
Asia, which are especially affected, and yet have the least information available
regardingtheportendingeffectsontheirmajorcrops.
Relateddiscussionisfocusedonconceptsof“climate-smartagriculture”.These
conceptsarecalledthe“triple-win”approach,consistingofincreasingcropproduc-
tion with improved agronomic practices, while adapting to changing climate and
reducing greenhouse gas emissions. There is not likely to be a single solution for
climate-smart agriculture, as management practices will be regionally determined
vii
January19,2015 17:51 HandbookofClimateChangeandAgroecosystems 9.75inx6.5in b2010-v1-fm pageviii
viii Foreword
toaccomplishthistriplewin,whilesustainingsoilhealthandproductivity.Thisis
clear from the global and regional assessments presented in this volume.AgMIP
is a prime example of developing an integrated approach involving scientists and
stakeholders to achieve food security, respond to climate changes, and reduce the
scourgesofpovertyandhunger.
Toachievethetriplewinwithinthecontextofclimatechangewillrequiremuch-
neededinnovativeandintegratedresearchsuchasdevelopedbyAgMIP.Wecongrat-
ulateitsfounders,editors,andcontributingscientistsonthisuniqueassessmentof
climatechangeimpactsandthereportingofongoingregionalactivities.Thereisno
doubtthattheseongoingactivitieswillhaveamajorinfluenceonthemanagement
offutureagriculturalsystemsunderclimatechange.
JanW.Hopmans
President,SoilScienceSocietyofAmerica
DavidB.Mengel
President,AgronomySocietyofAmerica
DavidBaltensperger
President,CropScienceSocietyofAmerica
Madison,Wisconsin,2014