Table Of ContentGROUNDWATER CONTAMINATION:
USE OF MODELS IN DECISION-MAKING
ACKNOWLEDGEMENT
The editors gratefully acknowledge the sponsorship of the following organizations:
*
The Ministry of Housing, Physical Planning and Environment (VROM),
Leidschendam, The Netherlands.
*
The Ministry of Transport and Public Works,
The Hague, The Netherlands.
*
The United Nations Educational Scientific and Cultural Organization
(UNESCO).
Groundwater
Contamination:
Use of Models
in Decision-Making
Proceedings of the International Conference on Groundwater Contamination:
Use of Models in Decision-Making,
Amsterdam, The Netherlands, 26-29 October 1987, Organized by the
International Ground Water Modeling Center (IGWMC), Indianapolis -Delft
edited by
G.Jousma
International Ground Water Modeling Center,
Delft, The Netherlands
J. Bear
Technion, Israel Institute of Technology,
Haifa, Israel
Y. Y. Haimes
University of Virginia,
Charlottesville, Virginia, U.S.A.
F. Walter
TNO Institute of Applied Geoscience,
Delft, The Netherlands
KLUWER ACADEMIC PUBLISHERS
DORDRECHT / BOSTON / LONDON
Library of Congress Cataloging in Publication Data
ISBN-13: 978-94-010-7533-6 e-ISBN-13:978-94-009-2301-0
001: 10.1007/978-94-009-2301-0
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PREFACE
The protection of groundwater resources has emerged in recent years as a high
priority topic on the agenda of many countries. In responding to the growing
concern over deteriorating groundwater quality, many countries are developing a
comprehensive regulatory framework for the management of subsurface water
resources with management referring to both quantity and quality aspects. Within
this framework, groundwater models are rapidly coming to playa central role in
the development of protection and rehabilitation strategies. These models provide
forecasts of the future state of the groundwater aquifer systems and/or the
unsaturated zone in response to proposed management initiatives. For example,
models will predict the effects of implementing a proposed management scheme on
water levels and on the transport and fate of pollutants. The models are now used in
the formulation of policies and regulations, the issuing of permits, design of
monitoring and data collection systems, and the development of enforcement actions.
The growth in the use of these sophisticated tools has led to many unforeseen
problems in groundwater management. Lingering issues include reliability of
codes, quality assurance in model development and applications, efficient utiliza
tion of human and material resources, technology transfer and training. Some issues
have legal ramifications, as in cases where the applications of models have been
contested in courts.
Many parties interact in this modelling and decision-making process, including
decision-makers at the political level, managers and professionals dealing with the
planning, development, and protection of water resources, and engineers involved
in remedial actions and clean-up operations. These groups may belong to national or
regional water authorities, research organizations, industry, consulting firms, or
universities. The major objective of the conference was to bring all these groups
together and to provide a platform for discussing the role and function of models in
groundwater management.
Many conferences focus on either the management or the scientific aspects of
modelling. In line with its main mission, the International Ground Water Modeling
Center organized this conference to address the interaction between modellers and
decision-makers. The conference's theme of concern over groundwater contamina
tion was harmonious with the European Commission's decision to call 1987 the
'European Year of the Environment'. This conference addressed the following
questions:
• What role do models play in the management and decision-making process,
and do models supply the necessary information?
• What is the state-of -the-art of modelling for management, especially in the
area of preventing and mitigating groundwater contamination?
• Do modellers have enough understanding and knowledge of the processes
taking place in the subsurface to construct realistic models, and do these
models provide reliable information for planners?
v
VI
• What kind of field information is needed for model calibration such that the
model will provide the information required for decision-making? Are the
levels of data collection and data management in line with model develop
ment needs?
• What are the key problems in the management of modelling groundwater
systems and what can be done to resolve them? How can the quality of the
modelling effort be ensured?
Several important conclusions emerged during the conference, including the
need for:
• More scientific work associated with the modelling of groundwater systems.
Expanding the scientific base would improve our understanding of the
complex causal relationships among the various interacting components of the
groundwater system.
• A proper balance in the accuracy and precision among the different sets of
data used as inputs to groundwater models. In particular, the level of uncer
tainty in socio-economic data varies significantly from the level of
uncertainty in hydrologic data. The same discrepancy exists between data on
sources of contamination and data on geophysical parameters. A fundamental
question arises as to whether we are allocating our resources for data collec
tion purposes wisely and cost-effectively.
• More awareness of the uncertainties associated with groundwater systems, and
thus the incorporation of risk analysis in groundwater management models.
Furthermore, the fact that often the data base is sparse, scarce, and inade
quate should lead to increased efforts in the development and use of
risk-based models in decision-making.
• The development of more groundwater management models and especially
those that incorporate multiple objectives, since most groundwater systems are
characterized by multiple non-commensurate, conflicting, and competing
objectives. In particular, when risks, costs, and other non-monetary benefits
are considered, the single-objective management models become inadequate
and may lead to fallacious results.
• More appreciation of human factors in groundwater management models.
Human errors are prevalent in almost all modelling stages: model conception,
development, verification, validation, use, and interpretation. And, most
importantly, human errors are prevalent in the control and implementation
of decisions and policies.
• More involvement of decision-makers (DMs) in the modelling process; they
must participate in defining the problem and become part of its solution.
There is an urgent need for supporting the modelling effort from 'above'.
This, however, can be achieved only when the DMs develop trust and confi-
vii
dence in the modeller and the modelling process as a whole. It is worth
noting that the generic term DMs connotes decision-makers of different
types and levels: appointed, elected, commissioned; power brokers, special
interest groups, stakeholders; etc.
• More appreciation on the part of the modellers of the limitations of models.
Although models aimed at management problems attempt to capture the
essence and needs of the problem in the most effective way, they often fail to
do so. The fact that only limited aspects can be modelled means that model
results represent a partial picture: a skewed view of the real world.
Therefore, what might seem logical to the modeller with one vision can be
perceived as illogical to the DMs with broader perspectives.
In view of the many uncertainties inherent in the use of models (e.g. those
related to the way the models describe real world processes and those related to the
data used for deriving model coefficients) the role of models should be expanded
beyond merely a tool for providing predicted numerical values as input for
management models. Through sensitivity analysis and parametric runs, models will
lead to a better understanding of the considered groundwater system, provide
information on trends and directions of development and thus improve management
decisions.
Yacov Y. Haimes, Jacob Bear,
Chairman Co-chairman
Scientific Programme Committee Scientific Programme Committee
CONTENTS
v
PREFACE
ORGANIZATION
Scientific Programme Committee XI
Organizing Committee XU
xm
Session Chairmen
Invited Speakers XIV
Panel Members XV
CONTRIBUTIONS
Opening and Introduction 1
International Standpoints 17
Topic 1: Risk Assessment and Management 39
Topic 2: Models in Regulation and Legislation 73
Topic 3: Quality Assurance in Modelling 109
Topic 4: Parameter Estimation and Stochastic Modelling 149
Topic 5: Modelling Heat and Contaminant Transport 229
Topic 6: Geo-chemical and Bio-chemical Modelling 353
Topic 7: Modelling of Fractured Rock Aquifers 433
Topic 8: Regional Groundwater Contamination Studies 477
Topic 9: Solid and Hazardous Waste Management Studies 553
Panel I: The Role of Data in Modelling 637
Panel 2: Models in Regulation 651
ORGANIZATION
SCIENTIFIC PROGRAMME COMMITTEE
Y.Y. Haimes University of Virginia,
(chairman) Charlottesville, Virginia, USA
J. Bear Technion, Israel Institute of Technology,
( co-chairman) Haifa, Israel
G. Gambolati Institute of Applied Mathematics,
Padua, Italy
S.M. Gorelick U.S. Geological Survey,
Menlo Park, California, USA
P.K.M. van der Heijde International Ground Water Modeling
Center, Indianapolis, Indiana, USA
J. Kindler Warsaw Technical University,
Warsaw, Poland
M.R. Llamas Universidad Complutense de Madrid,
Madrid, Spain
G. de Marsily Ecole Nationale Superieure des Mines
de Paris, Fontainebleau, France
J.W. Mercer GeoTrans, Inc.,
Reston, Virginia, USA
E.J. Plate University of Karlsruhe,
Karlsruhe, FRG
A.P. Vernimmen Water Authority of North-Holland,
Haarlem, The Netherlands
C. Young Water Research Centre,
Marlow, UK
xi
ORGANIZING COMMITTEE
F. Walter TNO Institute of Applied Geoscience,
(chairman) Delft, The Netherlands
G. Jousma International Ground Water Modeling
(scientific secretary) Center, Delft, The Netherlands
Ms. S. van de Graaf TNO Corporate Communication Department,
(organizing secretary) The Hague, The Netherlands
P. Bourdeau CEC, Directorate General for Science,
Research and Development (DG-Xll),
Brussels, Belgium
J.D. Bredehoeft U.s. Geological Survey,
Menlo Park, California, USA
W. Cramer National Institute of Public Health and
Environmental Protection,
Bilthoven, The Netherlands
S. Dumitrescu UNESCO, Division Water Sciences,
Paris, France
J.J. Fried President European Institute for Water,
Varese, Italy
O.L. Loucks Holcomb Research Institute,
Indianapolis, Indiana, USA
W.J.c. Melgert TNO Corporate Communication Department,
The Hague, The Netherlands
E. Romijn International Secretary-General of the
International Association of Hydrogeologists,
Arnhem, The Netherlands
xii
