Great Powers and Geopolitics: International Affairs in a Rebalancing World

271 Pages·2015·3.34 MB·English

by  Aharon Klieman (eds.)

Global Power Shift
Aharon Klieman Editor
Great Powers
and Geopolitics
International Aff airs in a Rebalancing
World
Global Power Shift
Comparative Analysis and Perspectives
SeriesEditor:
XuewuGu
CenterforGlobalStudies,UniversityofBonn,Germany
ManagingEditor:
EnricoFels
CenterforGlobalStudies,UniversityofBonn,Germany
InternationalAdvisoryBoard:
LuisFernandes,PontificiaUniversidadeCatolicadoRiodeJaneiro,Brazil
G.JohnIkenberry,PrincetonUniversity,USA
CanrongJin,RenminUniversityofBeijing,China
SrikanthKondapalli,JawaharlalNehruUniversity,India
DingliShen,FudanUniversity,China
KazuhikoTogo,KyotoSanyoUniversity,Japan
RobertoZoboli,CatholicUniversityofMilan,Italy
Ample empirical evidence points to recent power shifts in multiple areas of
internationalrelationstakingplacebetweenindustrializedcountriesandemerging
powers,andbetweenstatesandnon-stateactors.Yetthereisadearthoftheoretical
interpretation and synthesis of these findings, and a growing need for coherent
approachestounderstandandmeasurethetransformation. Thisedited seriesaims
to bring together scholars from all major world regions as well as different
disciplines in order to discuss and possibly blend their different approaches and
providenewframeworksfortheunderstandingofglobalaffairsandthegovernance
ofglobalpowershifts.
More information about this series at
http://www.springer.com/series/10201
Aharon Klieman
Editor
Great Powers and Geopolitics
International Affairs in a Rebalancing World
Editor
AharonKlieman
Tel-AvivUniversity,DepartmentofPoliticalScience
Ramat-Aviv
Israel
ISSN2198-7343 ISSN2198-7351 (electronic)
GlobalPowerShift
ISBN978-3-319-16288-1 ISBN978-3-319-16289-8 (eBook)
DOI10.1007/978-3-319-16289-8
LibraryofCongressControlNumber:2015937358
SpringerChamHeidelbergNewYorkDordrechtLondon
©SpringerInternationalPublishingSwitzerland2015
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Preface
The malcontents of this world—the militants, the jihadists, the marginalized, and
the anti-status quo revisionists—are once again on the march. From the Crimea
across the Middle East’s Arab heartland, and from Libya to Nigeria and Somalia
through the interior and Horn of Africa all the way eastward to the South China
Seas, global power is shifting in ways that are at once dramatic and disquieting,
madethemoresoforhavingbeenlargelyunanticipated.
Thrust back on the defensive is an entire post-Cold War international order,
including the very foundational principles upon which it rests. Only yesterday, in
enteringthisseconddecadeofthetwenty-firstcentury,twoalternativefuturesvied
for acceptance. The first predicted a “Great Convergence” of mankind, generated
by unprecedented economic and technological globalization, whereas the second
foresaw an emerging “G-Zero” leaderless yet admirably egalitarian planet Earth
madepossiblebytheincrementalandessentiallynonviolentreshufflingofgeopolitical
power,prestige,andinfluence.
Politicalrealitiesnowsuggestanaltogetherdifferentparadigm.Afundamental
reordering,tobesure,butmorerevolutionarythanevolutionary;moresavagethan
civil;andspearheadednotsomuchbytheacknowledgedgreatpowersasbyleaders
ofdefiantweakerstates,pivotalregionalcountries,andaggressivenon-stateactors;
and, most disconcerting, by fanatical religious movements unbound by any
acceptedinternationalrules,Westernnorms,legalstandards,orsocialconventions.
Howfarandhowfasthaveweretreatedfromthoseearlierconfidentreassurances
ofa“democraticpeace”,orofa“longpeace”undertheaegisofabenevolent“Pax
Americana.”WhenacivilianMalaysianairlinercanbeshotdownwithimpunity,and
when peacekeepers functioning in southern Syria under a United Nations flag and
mandate are fired upon and detained by al-Qaida affiliates, the evidence is all too
patently and painfully clear that international society is under siege. Just as the
international system itself and its stability and credibility are sorely tested should
Russia’screepingarmedinvasionoftheUkraineproceedunchecked.
Unless these destabilizing assaults on the global order are promptly and effec-
tivelyrepulsed,then“Cry‘Havoc!’,andletslipthedogsofwar.”Hence,eveninthe
v
vi Preface
midstofrapidlyunfoldingeventsworldwide,studentsofinternationalaffairsmust
acceptthetwofoldimperativeofgrapplingwiththemoreseriousandmostimme-
diate threats, while recommending serviceable tools of the statesman’s trade for
guaranteeingifnottheidealofaKantianperpetualpeacethenatleastatolerable,
functioningworldorder.
Responding to the challenge, the scholars and specialists contributing to this
collectionoftimelyessaysaddresshead-onthecurrenttransformationalmomentin
world history and politics. In doing so, they tackle their respective assignments
guidedbythefollowingquestions:
• What constitute today the real sinews of national power? And what is the best
mix of hard, soft, and smart power needed to cope with current as well as
unanticipatedfuturechallenges?
• Who are the resurgent and rising great powers? The prospective leading state
andnon-stateactors?
• Even in the throes of its own multiple crises at home, does the United States
continuetobeindispensableoverseas?Canitbecountedupontoleadfromthe
front?
• Areweabletoidentifybothmechanismsandcoalitionsforconstructinganew,
more stable equilibrium, preferably short of all-out war? An equilibrium accu-
ratelyreflectingtherealdistributionofpowerandinfluenceworldwide,byfirst
recognizing and then accommodating the ascendancy of pivotal leaders and
countriesineachoftheirrespectiveregionalsubsystems.
Usingthenotionofadynamic,ongoingbalancingofpowerprocessasaunifying
theme, these essays serve to highlight those regional rivals and rivalries most
criticalforinternationalstability.
Surveying the scene in mid-summer 2014, one astute observer was led to
conclude, “It is all gray and it is all grim.1” All gray, yes! All grim, definitely
not! Great Powers and Geopolitics represents a serious attempt at providing a
durable compass—the concept and the process of rebalancing power—for
weathering the current storm and in offering authoritative guidance through the
perplexitiesofaworldinflux.
Throughtheirindividualcasestudiesandcollectiveeffort,theeditorandauthors
hope to satisfy the increasingly urgent need for understanding shared by
policymakersandacademicsalike.Aswellasbystudentsandcitizensaroundthe
globe who share with us both a fascination with foreign affairs and a deepening
concernatthestateoftheworld.
Ramat-Aviv,Israel AharonKlieman
1LeonWieseltier,“Obamawaswrong:Theeraofhumanitarianinterventionisnotover,”New
republic,27August2014.
Acknowledgments
The origins of this book trace back to a 3-day academic workshop convened in
JerusaleminNovember2013,whichbroughttogether17scholarsfrom9countries
representingarangeofcultures,disciplines,andperspectives.Althoughneitherthe
organizers nor the participants could possibly have anticipated whatcourse world
politics were about to take—where better than Jerusalem for cautioning against
practicingthepropheticprofession?—thesingleconsiderationbringingustogether
surelyhadtohavebeenasharedsensethat,quotingBobDylan,“thetimestheyare
a-changin’.”
AlreadyayearearliertheConferenceAnnouncementandInitialCallforPapers
invitedwould-beparticipantstoconsiderastheirworkingpremisethatinternational
affairs were poised on the threshold of a new era––a new era marked by a major
realignment in the hierarchy and distribution of both political power and global
influence.
Nor were indicators lacking of deep systemic change about to take place well
before Malaysian Airlines flight MH17, before the Crimean and Ukrainian crises,
before the Gaza Strip, and before the meteoric rise of the ad-Dawla Islamiyya
(IslamicState)movementinadisorderlyandpossiblydisintegratingMiddleEast.
Eventhen,oursensorswere picking upstrongsignalsofaworld-wearyandwary
America, increasingly exasperated by unappreciative friends and undisciplined
foes, while from the other direction former supporting actors waited impatiently
inthewingsforanopportunitytogaincenterstage.
Both the preliminary Jerusalem Workshop and now this book represent an
attempt at getting in front of events. Not in the sense of predicting their exact
course but, rather, in framing on a larger canvas the dynamics of how and why
power is in fact shifting on a global scale, as well as who are the prime movers
behindthisrealignment.
Publication of these selected Workshop papers—revised and updated for this
volume—offers a perfect opportunity to express thanks to the several individuals
and agencies without whose encouragement and material assistance this project
couldnotandwouldnothaveprogressedfromstarttofinish.Firstandforemost,the
vii
viii Acknowledgments
International Political Science Association (IPSA), for sponsoring the Jerusalem
Workshop and for enabling several young scholars to participate through IPSA
travel grants. One of the privileges in chairing IPSA’s Research Committee on
GeopoliticsistheopportunitytoconcerteffortswithclosecolleaguesSharylCross
in the United States, Igor Okunev in Russia, Ziv Rubinovitz in Israel, and Pere
VilanovainSpain.
That the Workshop sessions proved singularly successful—in the sense of
serious questioning and earnest debate that led to a unique intellectual bonding—
owes in no small measure to the spectacular setting offered on The Hebrew
University’s Mount Scopus campus overlooking the Old City and Holy Basin,
whose ancient ruins and sacred sites bear strong witness to the ebb and flow of
history, to the wages of religious zealotry, and to the rise and fall of great and
would-begreatpowers.
Equallyconducive were the physical facilities provided by the management of
TheBeitMaiersdorfcomplexwhereourguestsweregraciouslyandamplyhosted
byTheLeonardDavisInstituteforInternationalRelations.Aspecialdebtofthanks
is expressed, therefore, to Professor Piki Ish-Shalom, head of the Institute, for
endorsing the Workshop idea and for his personal participation in one panel and
to Chanoch Wolpe for converting that idea into a memorable reality by micro-
managingthethree-dayeventwithaplombandgoodhumor.
As Great Powers and Geopolitics enters into print, making it accessible to a
wideraudience,sincerethanksarereadilyoffered,lastbutcertainlynotleast,tothe
team of professionals at Springer, headed by Barbara Fess and Johannes Glaeser,
andtoEnricoFels,whoservedintheindispensableroleof“honestbroker.”
Contents
Introduction. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1
AharonKlieman
PushingBack:TheBalanceandBalancingofPower. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11
AharonKlieman
TheRiseoftheOthers:CantheU.S.StayonTop?. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 31
ZivRubinovitz
Interdependence,BalancingandConflictinRussian–Turkish
Relations. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 65
TolgaDemiryol
CongruousorConflicting?GreatPowerConfigurationsinthe
Balkans. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 87
MarinkoBobic´
CompetingHegemons:EUandRussianPowerProjectionintheSouth
Caucasus. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 113
ScottNicholasRomaniuk
RussianPerspectivesonUS–ChinaRelationsandthe
Twenty-First-CenturyGlobalSystem. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 139
IgorZevelev
IsRussiaaGreatPowerinAsia?. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 161
StephenBlank
EurasianGreatPowerTriangle. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 183
ArtyomLukin
PullingTheirPunches:BRICForeignPoliciesintheMiddleEast. . . . . 207
GuyBurton
ix