Global Warming Understanding the Forecast

208 Pages·2006·2.67 MB·English

by  David Archer

Global Warming
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Dedication
ToGeorgeLockwood
andthespiritofcuriosity
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Global Warming
Understanding the forecast
DavidArcher
University of Chicago
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©2007byBlackwellPublishingLtd
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LibraryofCongressCataloging-in-PublicationData
Archer,David,1960-
Globalwarming:understandingtheforecast/DavidArcher.
p.cm.
Includesbibliographicalreferencesandindex.
ISBN-13:978-1-4051-4039-9(pbk.:acid-freepaper)
ISBN-10:1-4051-4039-9(pbk.:acid-freepaper)
1.Globalwarming.2.Globaltemperaturechanges.3.Greenhouseeffect,Atmospheric.
4.Globalwarming–Politicalaspects.5.Globalwarming–Economicaspects.
I.Title
QC981.8.G56A732007
551.6–dc22
2006009415
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Contents
Onlinemodels vi
Preface vii
1 Humankindandclimate 1
Part I Thegreenhouseeffect 7
2 Blackbodyradiation 9
3 Thelayermodel 19
4 Greenhousegases 29
5 Thetemperaturestructureoftheatmosphere 41
6 Heat,winds,andcurrents 54
7 Feedbacks 69
Part II Thecarboncycle 83
8 CarbononEarth 85
9 Fossilfuelsandenergy 99
10 Theperturbedcarboncycle 113
Part III Theforecast 127
11 Isitreliable? 129
12 Theforecast 146
13 Decisions,decisions 169
Glossary 187
Index 193
Colorplatesappearbetweenpages168and169
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Dedication
ToGeorgeLockwood
andthespiritofcuriosity
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Online models
Amodelofinfraredradiationintheatmosphere
http://understandingtheforecast.org/Projects/infrared_spectrum.html
Amodelofvisible+infraredradiationinthe
atmospherehttp://understandingtheforecast.org/Projects/full_spectrum.html
Amodelofthegeologicalcarboncycle
http://understandingtheforecast.org/Projects/geocarb.html
ISAMIntegratedassessmentmodelforfutureclimatechange
http://understandingtheforecast.org/Projects/isam.html
AHubbert’sPeakcalculator
http://understandingtheforecast.org/Projects/hubbert.html
TheKayaIdentitymodelforthegrowthofthehumanfootprint
http://understandingtheforecast.org/Projects/kaya.html
Browsingtheresultsofacoupledclimatemodel
http://understandingtheforecast.org/Projects/bala.html
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Preface
GlobalWarming:Understandingtheforecastisbasedonclasslecturesforundergraduate
nonsciencemajorsattheUniversityofChicago,developedbyRayPierrehumbertand
myself.Theclassservesaspartialfulfillmentofourgeneraleducationor“core”science
requirements. We teach the class, and I have written this textbook, in a mechanistic
way. We aim to achieve an intuitive understanding of the ropes and pulleys of the
natural world, a fundamental scientific foundation that will serve the student longer
thanwouldastraightpresentationofthelatestpredictions.
Thetextaimsatasingleproblem–assessingtheriskofanthropogenicclimatechange.
The story ranges from science to economics to policy, through physics, chemistry,
biology, geology, and of course atmospheric science. We see the distant past and the
distantfuture.Inmyopinion,bylookingataproblemfrommanyangles,thestudent
getsaprettydecentviewofhowaworkingscientistreallythinks.Thisisasopposedto,
say,takingasurveytourofsomescientificdiscipline.
Thetextissuitableforstudentsofallbackgrounds.Wedomakesomeuseofalgebra,
mostly in the form of what are known as (gasp) story problems. The student will be
exposedtobitsandpiecesofchemistry,physics,biology,geology,atmosphericscience,
and economics, but no prior knowledge of any of these topics is required. One can
learnsomethingofwhateachfieldisaboutbylearningwhatitisgoodfor,withinthe
contextofthecommonunifyingproblemofglobalwarming.
Ihaveprovidedaprojectassociatedwitheachchapterafterthefirst,eitheracomputer
lab or a paper-and-pencil exercise, suitable to do in lab sessions or as homework.
The first three are paper-and-pencil exercises, aimed at building a foundation for
understandingthecomputerlabexercisesthatfollow.Themodelsrunonourcomputers
attheUniversityofChicago,whichcanbeaccessedthroughwebpages.Nospecialsetup
ofthecomputerisrequiredandstudentscanworkjustasequallywellinacomputer
labasinStarbucks(actually,itwouldbeinterestingtoseeifthat’strue).
This book has benefited through thoughtful reviews by Andy Ridgwell,
StefanRahmstorf,GavinSchmidt,andafourthanonymousreviewer.Thewebinterface
to the models benefited from inputs by Jeremy Archer. The visible/infrared radiation
modelwasconstructedbyRayPierrehumbertandRodrigoCaballero.TheISAMcarbon
cyclemodelwasprovidedbyAtulJain.Thebackcoverphotooftheglacierwastaken
byLonnieThompson.TheprojectinChapters11and12makesuseofmodeloutput
providedbyG.Bala,andwasplottedusingferret,developedattheNOAAPMEL.
Instructors may request a CD with solutions and artwork from the book via this
emailaddress:[email protected]
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