Table Of Content.
Global Tsunami Science:
Past and Future,
Volume I
Edited by
Eric L. Geist
Hermann M. Fritz
Alexander B. Rabinovich
Yuichiro Tanioka
Previously published in Pure and Applied Geophysics
(PAGEOPH), Volume 173, No. 12, 2016
Editors
Eric L. Geist Alexander B. Rabinovich
U.S. Geological Survey Russian Academy of Sciences
MS 999 P.P. Shirshov Institute of Oceanology
Middlefi eld Rd 345 Nakhimovski Prospect 36
94025 Menlo Park 117997 Moscow
CA, USA Russia
Hermann M. Fritz Yuichiro Tanioka
Georgia Institute of Technology Hokkado University
School of Civil and Environmental N10W8, Kita-ku
Engineering 060-0810 Sapporo
790 Atlantic Drive, Atlanta Japan
30332 Georgia
USA
ISBN 978-3-319-55479-2 ISBN 978-3-319-55480-8 (eBook)
DOI 10.1007/978-3-319-55480-8
Library of Congress Control Number: 2017934654
Mathematics Subject Classifi cation (2010): 86-XX, 60-XX, 62-XX, 65-XX, 76-XX
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(photo: September 21, 2015, © Hermann M. Fritz)
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Contents
1 Introduction to “Global Tsunami Science: Past and Future, Volume I”
E.L. Geist · H.M. Fritz · A.B. Rabinovich · Y. Tanioka
TSUNAMI PROBABILITY AND UNCERTAINTY ANALYSIS
9 Generating Random Earthquake Events for Probabilistic Tsunami
Hazard Assessment
R.J. LeVeque · K. Waagan · F.I. González · D. Rim · G. Lin
31 The Effects on Tsunami Hazard Assessment in Chile of Assuming
Earthquake Scenarios with Spatially Uniform Slip
M. Carvajal · A. Gubler
41 Reconstruction of Far-Field Tsunami Amplitude Distributions
from Earthquake Sources
E.L. Geist · T. Parsons
57 Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Assessment for a Site in Eastern Canada
V. Kulkarni · M.E.M. Arcos · T. Alcinov · A. Lavine · R. Youngs · P. Roussel ·
D. Mullin
95 Probabilistic Hazard of Tsunamis Generated by Submarine Landslides
in the Cook Strait Canyon (New Zealand)
E.M. Lane · J.J. Mountjoy · W.L. Power · C. Mueller
113 Developing an Event-Tree Probabilistic Tsunami Inundation Model
for NE Atlantic Coasts: Application to a Case Study
R. Omira · L. Matias · M.A. Baptista
DETERMINISTIC HAZARD AND RISK ASSESSMENT
133 Application and Comparison of Tsunami Vulnerability and Damage
Models for the Town of Siracusa, Sicily, Italy
G. Pagnoni · S. Tinti
161 Possible Worst-Case Tsunami Scenarios Around the Marmara Sea
from Combined Earthquake and Landslide Sources
P. Latcharote · A. Suppasri · F. Imamura · B. Aytore · A.C. Yalciner
185 Impact of Hellenic Arc Tsunamis on Corsica (France)
A. Gailler · F. Schindelé · H. Hébert
TSUNAMI WARNING AND DETECTION
201 Consistent Estimates of Tsunami Energy Show Promise for Improved
Early Warning
V. Titov · Y.T. Song · L. Tang · E.N. Bernard · Y. Bar-Sever · Y. Wei
219 Very Fast Characterization of Focal Mechanism Parameters Through
W-Phase Centroid Inversion in the Context of Tsunami Warning
J. Roch · P. Duperray · F. Schindelé
233 Tsunami Detection by High-Frequency Radar Beyond the Continental
Shelf · I: Algorithms and Validation on Idealized Case Studies
S.T. Grilli · S. Grosdidier · C.-A. Guérin
273 Time–Frequency Characteristics of Tsunami Magnetic Signals from Four
Pacifi c Ocean Events
N.R. Schnepf · C. Manoj · C. An · H. Sugioka · H. Toh
293 A Pilot Tsunami Inundation Forecast System for Australia
S.C.R. Allen · D.J.M. Greenslade
TSUNAMI HYDRODYNAMICS AND MODELING
311 Comparison and Computational Performance of Tsunami-HySEA and MOST
Models for LANTEX 2013 Scenario: Impact Assessment on Puerto Rico Coasts
J. Macías · A. Mercado · J.M. González-Vida · S. Ortega · M.J. Castro
337 Tsunami Hazard Assessment in the Hudson River Estuary Based
on Dynamic Tsunami–Tide Simulations
M. Shelby · S.T. Grilli · A.R. Grilli
377 Tsunami Bores in Kitakami River
E. Tolkova · H. Tanaka
393 Adjoint Methods for Guiding Adaptive Mesh Refi nement in Tsunami Modeling
B.N. Davis · R.J. LeVeque
413 Benchmarking an Unstructured-Grid Model for Tsunami Current Modeling
Y.J. Zhang · G. Priest · J. Allan · L. Stimely
427 The New Method of Tsunami Source Reconstruction With r-Solution
Inversion Method
T.A. Voronina · A.A. Romanenko
LANDSLIDE AND METEOROLOGICAL TSUNAMIS
439 Source Characterization and Tsunami Modeling of Submarine Landslides
Along the Yucatán Shelf/Campeche Escarpment, Southern Gulf of Mexico
J.D. Chaytor · E.L. Geist · C.K. Paull · D.W. Caress · R. Gwiazda ·
J.U. Fucugauchi · M.R. Vieyra
455 Multi-Meteotsunami Event in the Adriatic Sea Generated by Atmospheric
Disturbances of 25–26 June 2014
J. Šepic´ · I. Med-ugorac · I. Janekovic´ · N. Dunic´ · I. Vilibic´
CASE STUDIES
477 A Comparative Analysis of Coastal and Open-Ocean Records of the Great
Chilean Tsunamis of 2010, 2014 and 2015 off the Coast of Mexico
O. Zaytsev · A.B. Rabinovich · R.E. Thomson
517 Rupture Process of the 1969 and 1975 Kurile Earthquakes Estimated
from Tsunami Waveform Analyses
K. Ioki · Y. Tanioka
527 A Possible Source Mechanism of the 1946 Unimak Alaska Far-Field
Tsunami: Uplift of the Mid-Slope Terrace Above a Splay Fault Zone
R. von Huene · J.J. Miller · D. Klaeschen · P. Dartnell
PureAppl.Geophys.173(2016),3663–3669
(cid:2)2016SpringerInternationalPublishing(outsidetheUSA)
Pure and Applied Geophysics
DOI10.1007/s00024-016-1427-4
Introduction to ‘‘Global Tsunami Science: Past and Future, Volume I’’
ERIC L. GEIST,1 HERMANN M. FRITZ,2 ALEXANDER B. RABINOVICH,3,4 and YUICHIRO TANIOKA5
Abstract—Twenty-five papers on the study of tsunamis are March 2011 Tohoku (Great East Japan) tsunami that
included in Volume I of the PAGEOPH topical issue ‘‘Global
killed almost 20,000 people and destroyed the
Tsunami Science: Past and Future’’. Six papers examine various
FukushimaDaiichinuclearpowerplant(Satakeetal.
aspects of tsunamiprobability and uncertainty analysis relatedto
hazardassessment.Threepapersrelatetodeterministichazardand 2013a).Therehavealsobeenmanyotherdevastating
riskassessment.Fivemorepaperspresentnewmethodsfortsunami tsunamis over the past decade that have guided tsu-
warning and detection. Six papers describe new methods for
namiscience,includingthe2006Java,2007Solomon
modeling tsunami hydrodynamics. Two papers investigate tsuna-
mis generated by non-seismic sources: landslides and Islands, 2009 Samoa, 2010, 2014, and 2015 Chile,
meteorological disturbances. The final three papers describe 2010 Mentawai (Indonesia), 2012 Haida Gwaii, and
importantcasestudiesofrecentandhistoricalevents.Collectively,
2013 Santa Cruz Islands events. Not only from
this volume highlights contemporary trends in global tsunami
research,bothfundamentalandappliedtowardhazardassessment countriesaffectedbytheseevents,butscientistsfrom
andmitigation. around the world have come together to engage in
tsunami research. The global community of
Keywords: Tsunami investigation, Tsunami Warning Sys-
researchershasalsoexpandedbydiscipline,adapting
tem, Tsunami detection, Tsunami records, Tsunami modeling,
Pacific Ocean, Spectral analysis, Tsunami probability, Landslide advances in other sciences to study all aspects of
tsunami,Meteotsunami. tsunami hydrodynamics, detection, generation, and
probability of occurrence.
One of the most important outcomes of this
research is advancement of tsunami hazard assess-
1. Introduction
mentandmitigation.Tsunamiwarningsystemsareat
the forefront of this effort. When tsunami warning
Tsunami science has evolved significantly since
systemswerefirstdeveloped,onlythearrivaltimeof
twoofthemostdestructivenaturaldisastersthathave
the first wave (often not the wave with the largest
occurred in this century: the 26 December 2004 tsu-
amplitude)couldbeaccuratelyforecasted.Now,pre-
nami that killed about 230,000 people along the
computed tsunami models enable refined real-time
coastsof14countriesintheIndianOceanandthe11
forecasts of tsunami runup and inundation for cities
and communities at risk from tsunamis. Tsunami
hazard assessments continue to improve as well, by
1 U.S. Geological Survey, 345 Middlefield Rd., MS 999, analyzing currents during inundation (an important
MenloPark,CA94025,USA.E-mail:[email protected] tsunami factor that relates to severe damage in ports
2 School of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Georgia
and harbors), dynamic interactions with tides and
Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA 30332, USA. E-mail:
rivers, incorporating landslide and meteorological
[email protected]
3 Department of Fisheries and Oceans, Institute of Ocean tsunami generation, and the development of the tsu-
Sciences,9860WestSaanichRd.,Sidney,BCV8L4B2,Canada. nami hazard curve that yields probability of wave
E-mail: [email protected];
height exceedance. In the future, tsunamis will
[email protected]
4 P.P.ShirshovInstituteofOceanology,RussianAcademyof remain a major threat to coastal infrastructure and
Sciences,36NakhimovskyPr.,Moscow117997,Russia. human life; so it is of utmost importance to advance
5 Institute of Seismology and Volcanology, Hokkaido
our understanding of all aspects of tsunami research
University, N10W8 Kita-ku, Sapporo 060-0810, Japan. E-mail:
[email protected] and apply our knowledge so that early tsunami
1 Reprinted fromthejournal
E.L.Geistetal. PureAppl.Geophys.
warning, hazard assessment and mitigation tools assessment in recent years. Six papers in this vol-
continue to be developed and refined. ume related to this analysis represent significant
The Joint Tsunami Commission, part of the Inter- advances and refinements in PTHA methodology.
national Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG), One of the principal earthquake source parameters
conceived the present volume. The Joint Tsunami controlling tsunami generation is slip and its vari-
Commission was established followingthe 1960Chile ability within the rupture zone. LeVeque et al.
tsunami, which was generated by the largest (M 9.5) (2016) present a new method to stochastically
w
instrumentally recorded earthquake, propagated simulate earthquake slip for general fault geome-
throughouttheentirePacificOcean,andaffectedmany tries as part of calculating tsunami hazard curves
countriesthroughouttheoceanbasin.Itbecameobvious from numerical models. They demonstrate how this
thattsunamiinvestigationandeffectivetsunamiwarning new method incorporates aleatory uncertainty (i.e.,
is impossible without intensive international coopera- natural randomness) associated with rupture com-
tion. Since 1960, the Joint Tsunami Commission has plexity into computational PTHA for earthquakes
held biannual International Tsunami Symposia and along the Cascadia subduction zone. Carvajal and
published special volumes of selected papers. Several Gubler (2016) indicate the importance of slip
suchvolumeshavebeenpublishedinPAGEOPHduring variation on tsunami hazard assessment by directly
ten years following the 2004Sumatratsunami, includ- comparing tsunami results using traditional uni-
ing,Satakeetal.(2007,2011a,b,2013a,b),Cummins form-slip ruptures to results from different bell-
etal.(2008,2009),andRabinovichetal.(2015a,b).Two shaped slip patterns.
recent catastrophic tsunamis, the 2010 Chile and 2011 A different and lesser-known type of PTHA, in
Tohoku,aswellasothereventswhichoccurredaround contrast to the computational approach, is empirical
this time, attracted so much attention and brought so PTHA where hazard curves are constructed from
much new information and data, that an extra, inter- tide-gaugedatadirectly,withouttheuseofnumerical
session volume was collected and published (Rabi- hydrodynamicmodels.EmpiricalPTHAoftensuffers
novich et al. 2014). From this point of view, these from short catalog durations and saturation of tsu-
volumescanbeconsideredasthefrontiersofthetsunami nami wave amplitudes for large events. Geist and
scienceandresearch,aswellasarecordofcontinuous Parsons(2016)developamethodtobolsterempirical
progressintsunamiwarningandhazardmitigation. PTHA by transforming earthquake catalogue magni-
Thecurrentvolumeismainlybasedonpaperspre- tudes to tsunami amplitudes, using station-specific
sented at the 27th International Tsunami Symposium scaling functions.
sponsoredbytheJointTsunamiCommission,aspartof ThreepapersshowhowPTHAisputintopractice
the26thIUGGGeneralAssemblyheldfrom22Juneto2 in developing tsunami hazard curves for specific
July2015inPrague,CzechRepublic.Altogether,about regions. Two papers are among the first to incorpo-
100 presentations comprised the symposium. At the rate landslide tsunami sources into PTHA. Kulkarni
businessmeetingoftheJointTsunamiCommission,it et al. (2016) calculate hazard curves for a site on the
wasdecidedtopublishselectedpaperspresentedatthis Bay of Fundy, Canada, considering both local and
symposium, as well as other papers on related topics. regionalearthquakeandlandslidesources.Laneetal.
Volume I comprises the first contribution, 25 papers, (2016) calculate tsunami hazard curves for Welling-
whichbecamereadyforpublicationbyDecember2016. ton, New Zealand specific to tsunamis produced by
Approximately,thesamenumberofpapersisplanned locallandslidesinthenearbyCookStraitCanyon.In
fortheforthcomingVolumeIIin2017. past PTHA applications, aleatory uncertainty is
integrated directly into computation of the hazard
curve. As an alternative, Omira et al. (2016) present
2. Tsunami Probability and Uncertainty Analysis an event-tree method for incorporating aleatory
uncertainty into the hazard calculation and use this
Probabilistic tsunami hazard analysis (PTHA) procedureforasiteonthenortheastAtlanticcoastof
has become an important tool for hazard Portugal.
Reprinted fromthejournal 2
Introductionto‘‘GlobalTsunamiScience:PastandFuture,VolumeI’’
3. Deterministic Hazard and Risk Assessment globallyexpandingGPSnetworkimmediatelyaftera
largeearthquakefornear-fieldtsunamiearlywarning,
An important complement to PTHA is determin- and then that estimate is refined using data from
istic tsunami hazard assessment. Deterministic nearby DART stations to improve forecast accuracy
assessments are directly amenable to risk analysis as and provide near real-time updates. The combination
inthe caseofthepaperbyPagnoniandTinti (2016). ofthesetworeal-timenetworksprovidesapromising
The authors considered several inundation scenarios method to further improve tsunami warning systems.
to examine tsunami vulnerability for the area of Rapid estimation of earthquake magnitude is also a
Siracusa on the eastern coast of Sicily and evaluated criticalcomponentintsunamiwarningsystems,aided
possible damage to buildings for various events. by the development of W-phase moment magnitude
Latcharote et al. (2016) evaluate tsunami hazards in estimates (Kanamori and Rivera 2008). In this vol-
the Marmara Sea from possible worst-case tsunami ume, Roch et al. (2016) detail W-phase centroid
scenarios originating from submarine earthquakes inversion that rapidly estimates other fault parame-
and landslides. The confinement of the Marmara Sea ters, in addition to earthquake magnitude, that are
alongtheNorthAnatolianFaulthasproduceddeadly criticaltowardestimatingtsunamiseverity:faulttype
historical tsunamis. The tsunami hazards are evalu- (reverse, normal, strike-slip) and focal depth.
ated from both individual and combined cases of One of the problems of existing tsunami warning
submarine earthquakes and landslides through systems, however, is providing an early alarm for
numerical tsunami simulations for the entire Mar- non-seismic events, in particular, meteotsunamis and
mara Sea region. Historical observations from the landslide-generated tsunamis. The tsunami propaga-
1509 and 1894 earthquakes are used to validate tsu- tion time to the affected coast for these events is too
nami modeling results with a particular focus on the small to effectively use open-ocean or shallow-water
tsunami heights at Istanbul. recorders.Grillietal.(2016)forthispurposesuggest
The development and improvement of modern theusehigh-frequency(HF)radarremotesensingand
tsunami warning systems strongly depend on the introduce new algorithms allowing detection of tsu-
exact knowledgeofthepotentialrisktocoastal areas nami waves ranging from nearshore regions to deep
from local and distant tsunamis generated in major water beyond the shelf.
seismically active fault zones. Gailler et al. (2016) Although it has been theoretically known that
examined possible impacts of Hellenic Arc tsunamis tsunamis may induce fluctuations in the Earth’s
on the coast of Corsica, France. The main result of electromagneticfield,ithasonlybeensincethe2010
their study is the establishment of magnitude Chile and the 2011 Japan tsunamis that scientists
thresholdsthatdeterminethethreatoftsunamiwaves have convincingly established that these fluctuations
for Corsica. are measurable. Schnepf et al. (2016) use recordings
from highly sensitive seafloor magnetometers to
determine the time–frequency characteristics of tsu-
4. Tsunami Warning and Detection nami signals and to develop methods to isolate
tsunami signals from background noise. As more
An important application of global tsunami sci- real-time seismic and tsunami data become available
ence is improvement in tsunami warning. Rapid and and as numerical tsunami models continue to
accurate estimates of tsunami energy are critical for improve, it becomes possible to provide tsunami
tsunamiwarning.Titovetal.(2016)developedanew inundation forecasts as part of a tsunami warning
method by combining two independent estimates of system.AllenandGreenslade(2016)demonstratethe
tsunami energy from the land-based coastal global feasibility of a pilot tsunami inundation forecast
positioning system (GPS) and the Deep-ocean system for a site in southeast Australia, and evaluate
Assessment and Reporting for Tsunamis (DART). thesystembasedonbothaccuracyandcomputational
First, the tsunami energy is estimated from the speed.
3 Reprinted fromthejournal
E.L.Geistetal. PureAppl.Geophys.
5. Tsunami Hydrodynamics and Modeling Zhang et al. (2016) present model results derived
fromatsunamicurrentbenchmarking workshop held
Atthecoreoftsunamihazardassessmentmethods by the U.S. National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation
and modern tsunami warning systems is an accurate Program (NTHMP) in 2015. Modeling was under-
understanding of tsunami hydrodynamics and mod- taken with a 3D unstructured-grid model that has
eling. For example, the Tsunami-HySEA model is been previouslycertified by the NTHMP for tsunami
used by Macias et al. (2016) to simulate tsunamis inundation. Results are presented for two benchmark
during the Caribbean Large AtlaNtic Tsunami tests including a vortex structure in the wake of a
EXercise (LANTEX 2013) with a special emphasis submergedshoalandtheimpactoftsunamiwaveson
onthecoastalareasofPuertoRico.Theresultsofthe Hilo Harbour from the 2011 Tohoku event. The
Tsunami-HySEAmodelwerecomparedwiththoseof modeled current velocities are compared with avail-
the MOST model. The domain decomposition tech- able lab and field data. Voroninna and Romanenko
niques used in Tsunami-HySEA allowed high- (2016) develop a new tsunami inversion method that
resolution inundation modeling and decreased com- uses a least-square inversion with a truncated Sin-
putational times. gular Value Decomposition method to find the best
Tsunami propagation and inundation modeling in solutionforthesource.Theyapplythismethodtothe
riverine and estuarine environments present difficult 2013Solomontsunamiandvalidatethe usefulnessof
challenges, especially with regard to dynamic inter- their method.
actionbetweentidesandtsunamiwaves.Shelbyetal.
(2016) examine the combined effects of tides and
tsunamis in the Hudson River Estuary, by linearly 6. Landslide and Meteorological Tsunamis
superimposingthetwotypesofwaves indeepwater,
and propagating them into the estuary using a non- Tsunami hazard assessments have increasingly
linear, dispersive long-wave model (FUNWAVE- included non-seismic sources in recent years. Land-
TVD). They indicate that detailed, high-resolution slide-generated tsunamis are relatively infrequent,
simulations (down to a 39-m grid spacing in their comparedtoearthquaketsunamis,butcanpotentially
study) are critical when tidal forcing is significant. generate extreme run-ups. Although much of the
When a tsunami enters a river, it propagates a long NorthAmericancontinentalmarginseafloorhasbeen
distance as a tsunami bore. The flow velocity esti- mapped in detail, one area where little had been
mation of the bore is important for hazard mitigation knownwithregardtopastsubmarinelandslidesisthe
of various infrastructures along the river. Tolkova Yucata´n Shelf and Campeche Escarpment, offshore
and Tanaka (2016) successfully model the flow Mexico. Chaytor et al. (2016) presents newly
velocity of the tsunami bore observed at several sta- acquired, high-resolution bathymetric data from this
tions along the Kitakami River during the 2011 margin and indicates that several large submarine
Tohoku Tsunami using shock theory. landslides have occurred along this margin in the
Davis and LeVeque (2016) develop numerical past. Results from preliminary tsunami modeling
methods for tsunami modeling that contain solutions comparedeep-wateramplitudedistributionsfromthe
with time-varying regions where much higher reso- different landslides and indicate complex basin-wide
lution is required than elsewhere in the domain. propagation patterns caused by the near-source sea-
Solving the time-dependent adjoint equation and floor physiography.
using a suitable inner product with the forward One type of tsunami that has begun to attract
solution allows more precise refinement of the rele- much attention is the ‘meteorological tsunami’
vant waves. This adjoint method has been integrated (or ‘meteotsunami’), i.e. tsunami-like waves that
into the adaptive mesh refinement strategy of the have approximately the same temporal and spatial
open source GeoClaw software maintaining the scales as ordinary tsunami waves, but are generated
accuracy of the solution, while the computational above the ocean surface by atmospheric gravity
time required is significantly reduced. wavesorairpressurejumps,ratherthanbysubmarine
Reprinted fromthejournal 4
