Table Of ContentLibrary of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data
Global security concerns: anticipating the twenty-first century / Karl P. Magyar.
p. cm.
Includes bibliographical references.
1. War-Forecasting. 2. Security International. 3. Twenty-first century-
Forecasts. I. Magyar, K. P. (Karl P.)
U21.2.G53 1996
355.02/0905-dc 20 96-12651
CIP
ISBN 1-58566-006-X
First Printing April 1999
Second Printing July 2000
Third Printing September 2001
Digitize January 2003 from 2001 Third Printing NOTE: Pagination changed
Disclaimer
This publication was produced in the Department of Defense school environment in the
interest of academic freedom and the advancement of national defense-related concepts.
The views expressed in this publication are those of the authors and do not reflect the
official policy or position of the Department of Defense or the United States government.
This publication has been reviewed by security and policy review authorities and is
cleared for public release.
ii
Dedicated to the students of the Air Command and
Staff College, many of whom will soon make vital
security-related decisions concerning our future.
iii
Contents
Page
DISCLAIMER....................................................................................................................ii
PREFACE..........................................................................................................................vi
HISTORY, CULTURE, AND CHANGE: FOUNDATIONS OF CONFLICTS
AND WARS..................................................................................................................1
RELIGION-A BANNER FOR TWENTY-FIRST CENTURY CONFLICT...................19
NATIONAL FRAGMENTATION, ETHNICITY, AND THE NEW WORLD
ORDER........................................................................................................................32
POPULATION PRESSURES, MIGRATION, AND REFUGEES...................................46
TRANSNATIONAL CRIME ITS EFFECT AND IMPLICATIONS FOR
INTERNATIONAL STABILITY...............................................................................58
HUMAN RIGHTS AND HUMANITARIAN CONCERNS............................................70
ANTICIPATING THE TWENTY-FIRST CENTURY ECONOMIC SOURCES
OF CONFLICTS..........................................................................................................82
THE THIRD WORLD’S NONVIABLE STATES A MAJOR SOURCE OF
CONFLICT IN THE TWENTY-FIRST CENTURY.................................................96
Table 2.......................................................................................................................101
WHEN THE WATER RUNS OUT.................................................................................111
TRANSNATIONAL AIR, WATER, AND LAND DEGRADATION
PROBLEMS..............................................................................................................124
NUCLEAR CONFLICT AND NONPROLIFERATION ISSUES IN THE
TWENTY-FIRST CENTURY...................................................................................134
THE OTHER WEAPONS OF MASS DESTRUCTION CHEMICAL AND
BIOLOGICAL...........................................................................................................145
CONVENTIONAL ARMAMENTS MAPPING WARFARE IN THE TWENTY-
FIRST CENTURY.....................................................................................................161
REGIONAL IMPACTS OF CIVIL WARS....................................................................176
THREATS FROM THIRD WORLD REGIONAL HEGEMONS..................................186
INTERNATIONAL TERRORISM IN THE TWENTY-FIRST CENTURY.................198
THE TRANSMILLENNIAL WORLD FROM AN AMERICAN PERSPECTIVE......210
v
PREFACE
One of the most important and intellectually fascinating areas of investigation for the
student of political affairs concerns the attempt to understand why man makes war. This
ancient field of inquiry may be addressed at such various levels as the philosophical and
psychological or the institutional and structural contexts of human behavior. For
example, did the recent wars in Somalia, Rwanda, and Haiti result from clashing
ideologies, tribalism, poverty and class warfare, the cold war, or distant ramifications of
colonial history, or, as has been postulated, the trees of these countries having been cut
down? These plausible sources of conflict offer insight into various dimensions of
explanations for wars; however, the analysts in this volume focus on just one aspect of
the inquiry. They were charged with the task of anticipating which specific contentious
issues likely will propel large, organized political units to choose violent means of
acquiring their sociopolitical objectives rather than attaining them peacefully. The units
on which we focus have been traditionally identified as states, but we recognize that a
host of new sub- and suprastate actors also will play major roles in such wars; hence, we
also will allude to them.
The specific issues identified in the text are by no means completely new sources of
contention. Indeed, we may easily argue that throughout history men have fought over
the same objects and values-only the weapons, strategies, and tactics in their acquisition
have changed. We concentrate on those issues that we believe will be prominent sources
of contention at the dawn of the twenty-first century. We knowingly omitted some of the
most pervasive and such well-articulated causes of wars as power-balancing initiatives or
the quest for such natural resources as oil or strategic minerals. These causes no doubt
will prevail as sources of violent conflict, but they will not likely assume new forms as
will those issues which ' comprise our chapter topics.
Nor do we rank in order of importance a list of issues likely to lead to wars. We
make no assumptions about the feasibility of such rankings as too many undetermined
variables would enter into such an equation. We do offer a brief background on each
topic; we attempt to assess the magnitude of them; we speculate on who the antagonists
may be; and we attempt to project the disruptive potential of each topic under
consideration and speculate on how it might impact the interests of the United States.
We also are sensitive to assumptions that the potential disputes we portray must lead
to war. In our analyses we offer balance by exploring the prospect that our contentious
issues also may be resolved peacefully. Currently, numerous avail- able and prominent
analyses caution us not to be overly sanguine about the end of war, and as analysts
associated with the nation's military effort, we maintain a healthy respect for anticipating
early the emerging challenges which counsel the timely formulation of appropriate
responses.
vi
We do not proffer the emergence of startling new world paradigms and, we avoid the
"gloom-and-doom" approach in drawing attention to our investigations. In fact, most of
the sources of instability identified in this volume have manifested themselves in modem-
day conflicts, but we anticipate a larger role for them in the future. For example, it may
seem innovative to identify international criminal activity as a future cause of armed
hostilities between states, but we need only to recall our military operations in Panama
and Haiti, which were motivated in part by our attempt to diminish the flow of narcotics
into the United States. The US also has offered military support to the governments of
several South American countries so they might curtail illicit drug production- ultimately
headed for the US.
We may be struck by several observations in the following chapters. Foremost, in
addressing prospective disruptive challenges emanating from the sources we identify,
there will be little utility for addressing the challenges with nuclear weapons.
Conventional military means, which address the issues while longer lasting political
solutions are formulated, may address the host of conflicts having social and economic
sources better than nuclear weapons. Another readily identifiable characteristic of many
of the sources of conflict is the pervasiveness of economic bases. It may be the most
overt reason on occasion, but many times economic foundations play an underlying role
in support of other noneconomic causes. This requires that we analyze more than only the
immediate, overt sources of instability but also the long-term perspective which may
dictate a nonmilitary strategy for the ultimate resolution of those conflicts.
Not surprising, most, if not virtually all, armed conflicts in the near term will be
experienced in the third world, although they will engage the interests-and involvement-
of the developed world. While resource and ecological problems will underlie many
conflicts as the third world attempts to come to term with its population growth in a
constrained international environment, the developed world will not escape altogether
these same concerns. That armed force has been implemented in recent years by several
developed states to ensure access to food resources, namely in pursuit of established
fishing rights and practices, has surprised many. Others have noted that in some regions
of the world in the future water might be worth more than oil. And, a final suggestion
cautions the reader to accept the complexity of causes of wars. Wars are rarely the
product of a clearly defined object of contention between two rivals; instead, antagonists,
as well as allied participants, pursue a combination of goals when the war allows them
the opportunity to do so. What we present in these analyses are major, or precipitating,
causes of potential conflicts. We do not present the myriad of underlying causes which
ultimately will shape the passion and the final outcome of the wars.
The analysts have been requested to make only brief comments about the
implications of their respective analyses for the interests of the United States. An
elaboration of this subject will be a valuable addition to the text, but it goes beyond our
modest undertaking in this present effort. There will emerge from our presentations
several implications for adjusting the structure, capabilities, and mission of our military if
we are to prevail. However, as noted, the defense capability of our country will realize
inherent limitations in many of our projected conflicts, and often the defense
establishment will have to augment sociopolitical initiatives, which will bear the brunt of
conflict resolution. We offer no counsel on how to prepare our armed forces of the future;
instead, our contribution identifies the sources of emerging security problems.
vii
Finally, we must emphasize that we imposed no requirement on the authors, to
present a common view of the impact of future security instability. We encouraged each
analyst to exercise personal judgment and the preferred analytic approach. Also, we all
write in our private analytic capacities, and our views do not represent the official
positions of the US Department of Defense nor of any US government agency.
As editor, I wish to thank Col John A. Warden III, USAF, Retired, who as
commandant, Air Command and Staff College, was supportive of this undertaking. I am
also grateful to Lt Col Bradley S. Davis for providing valuable, energetic, and competent
service as editorial assistant. Ms Yuna Braswell offered excellent computer work for us-
and I thank her. And, I am very pleased that my good friend, Dr Richard Bailey, with
whom I have had the privilege of working on several earlier projects, was appointed by
Air University Press to serve as our editor. Thank you all for a job well done.
Karl P. Magyar, PhD Editor
viii
PART I
INTRODUCTION
Anticipating the Sources of Future Conflicts
