Table Of ContentGlobal Power Shift
Astrid Boening
Jan-Frederik Kremer
Aukje van Loon Editors
Global Power
Europe - Vol. 2
Policies, Actions and Infl uence
of the EU's External Relations
Global Power Shift
Comparative Analysis and Perspectives
Series Editor:
Xuewu Gu
Center forGlobalStudies, Universityof Bonn,Germany
Managing Editor:
Enrico Fels
Center forGlobalStudies, Universityof Bonn,Germany
International Advisory Board:
LuisFernandes, Pontificia UniversidadeCatolica doRio de Janeiro, Brazil
G.JohnIkenberry,Princeton University, USA
Canrong Jin, RenminUniversityof Beijing, China
Srikanth Kondapalli,Jawaharlal Nehru University, India
Dingli Shen,FudanUniversity, China
Kazuhiko Togo,KyotoSanyoUniversity, Japan
RobertoZoboli, CatholicUniversity ofMilan,Italy
Ample empirical evidence points to recent power shifts in multiple areas of
internationalrelationstakingplacebetweenindustrializedcountriesandemerging
powers,andbetweenstatesandnon-stateactors.Yetthereisadearthoftheoretical
interpretation and synthesis of these findings, and a growing need for coherent
approachestounderstandandmeasurethetransformation. Thisedited seriesaims
to bring together scholars from all major world regions as well as different
disciplines in order to discuss and possibly blend their different approaches and
provide new frameworks for the understanding of global affairs and the
governance of global power shifts.
For furthervolumes:
http://www.springer.com/series/10201
.
Astrid Boening (cid:129) Jan-Frederik Kremer (cid:129)
Aukje van Loon
Editors
Global Power Europe - Vol. 2
Policies, Actions and Influence of the EU’s
External Relations
Editors
AstridBoening Jan-FrederikKremer
EuropeanUnionCenter CenterforGlobalStudies
UniversityofMiami BonnUniversity
CoralGables Bonn
Florida Germany
USA
AukjevanLoon
ChairofInternationalPolitics
RuhrUniversityBochum
Bochum
Germany
ISBN978-3-642-32415-4 ISBN978-3-642-32416-1(eBook)
DOI10.1007/978-3-642-32416-1
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Foreword: The EU is Not Over
“GlobalPowerEurope”isanimportantcontributiontooneofmostvitalquestions
of our times: what will be the future of the international order? The answer will
differgreatlydependingonwhethertheEUwillbeabletocontributesignificantly
tobuildinganeffectivemultilateralorder.Theanswerisnotandcouldnotbeclear-
cut. The EU represents both enormous potential, based on its experience with
building multilevel governance, and significant apprehension, due to the
expectationsgapthathasgrownalongwithit.
Thisvolume,editedbyAstridB.Boening,Jan-FrederikKremerandAukjevan
Loon,showsthescopeofthestudiesontheroleoftheEUasaglobalactor.Italso
showstheinterestthatscholars,onbothsidesoftheAtlantic,maintaininthetopic
despitegrowingskepticismoftheroleoftheEUontheinternationalscene,ofthe
futureoftheEurozoneandinsomecasesofthefutureoftheEUitself.Thevolume
also highlights the diversity of theories used to analyze the nature of the EU as a
foreignpolicyactor.Theauthorscovermanyoftheareasofinternationalactionof
theEU,showingthatitistoosoontoruleouttheemergenceoftheEUasamajor
globalactor,butalsounderliningthetremendouschallengesitfacesinachanging
internationalorder.
Of the challenges identified in this volume, three are of especially critical
importancetothefutureroleoftheEUasaglobalactor:
Thechallengeofglobalpowerpolitics.Ofthemajortrendsthataredefiningthe
future of the international order, increasing polycentrism will likely be one of the
trends which the EU will find it difficult to cope. We are moving towards a post-
WesternworldaspowershiftstoAsia,andnosingleactorwillbeinahegemonic
position.TheeraofUSunipolarityisover,andnonewbipolaritywillreplaceitin
theforeseeablefuture.Inthiscontext,therelativedeclineoftheUSAandtheEU
is inevitable. This means that the Western alliance is no longer a decisive force
on the international scene, but that other actors need to be included to pursue an
effective multilateral agenda. For the EU, this will come rather naturally, since
thepursuitofeffectivemultilateralismiscentraltoEUforeignpolicy,withtheEU
integrationprocessitselfbasedoninclusivenessandcooperation.Yet,theeffective
adaptation to increasing polycentrism by the EU is not a foregone outcome for
v
vi Foreword:TheEUisNotOver
threereasons: First,theEUhasbecomeusedtostrategicdependenceoftheUSA.
Second, the “power politics” conception of international relations that is pursued
byalargenumberofnewglobalplayerswilllimitinternationalrecognitionofthe
EU as a strategic international actor. Third, and most troubling, is the fact that
ina post-hegemonic world, middle powersare bound to play a major role.In this
context,EUmiddlepowerstateslikeGermanyandFrancecanbetemptedtoplaya
more autonomous international role, undermining the ability of the EU to define
common polices. This is already the case with energy management issues and on
security issues in general, as seen during the 2011 Libya crisis, when Germany
assumedapositionclosertothatoftheBRICScountries.
The Challenge of Coherence Involving EU Institutions
and Member States
TheLisbonTreatydidnotsolvetheproblemsofunityandcoherenceinEUexternal
action.BymultiplyingthenumberofEuropeanUnionactors,theTreatyincreased
theneedfor morecomplexnegotiations,notonlybetweenmemberstatesandEU
institutions, but among the institutions themselves. The complexity of the Lisbon
systemmakestheprocessofshapingexternalpolicy, weakeningthe coherence of
external action by the Union more difficult. The coherence of EU foreign policy
can’t bemerelythe result ofinstitutional cooperation,butneeds tobeenlargedto
includethememberstateswhowillremainthemostimportantactorsinEuropean
foreign policy. With the Lisbon Treaty, the member states have gained greater
powerinthedecisionmakingprocessoftheUnionashighlightedbySelinO¨zog˘uz-
Bolgi in her chapter: “In the end, the retention of national sovereignty won over
supra-nationality.”
ThisshiftcanbeseeninthediminishingroleoftheEUCommissioninexternal
actioninfavoroftheintergovernmentalprocess.Agoodexamplecanbefoundin
the shaping of EU Mediterranean policy, where the transformation led to the
weakening of the communitarian normative approach that over the years allowed
theCommission,throughtheBarcelonaProcess,tosupportcivilsocietyinitiatives
inthefieldsofhumanrightsanddemocracy.ThedifficultiesoftheEUtodefinea
coherent policy to support the democratic transitions in the Arab world are a
consequence of such state of affairs. The normative nature of EU external action
means that acting with consistency regarding the values of the Union is a pre-
condition for its credibility. However, the post-Western nature of the Arab
revolutions makes the imposition of EU conditionality upon that region a weaker
proposition. The integration of the southern Mediterranean in a common space of
rulesandnormsisnowmoredifficultandthemostlikelyscenarioisnotthatofEU
“imperial”stretchbutoftheemergingofcirclesofautonomousregionalcoopera-
tioninademocraticArabworld.
Foreword:TheEUisNotOver vii
The Challenge of Adding Hard Power Capacities to Make the
“Civilian” EU into a True Global Power
Thisissueisnotnew.ThelaunchingoftheEuropeanSecurityandDefencePolicy
(ESDP) in 1999 was a consequence of the lessons learned in Bosnia and Kosovo,
andtheconvictionthatwithoutamilitarycomponenttheEUwouldnotbeableto
play a relevant role in promoting effective multilateral action. In recent years,
however, we have seen a weaker commitment to defense policy and a lack of
ambitioninthisfield.This,asseveralchaptersinthesetwovolumesaddress,isthe
resultofseveralfactors:Themainreasonwouldbetheeconomiccrises,andthefact
that member states are substantially cutting defense expenditure. Eighteen Euro-
pean countries cut military spending by more than 10 % between 2008 and 2011,
while the largest EU military powers, the UK, France and Germany, have made
modest cuts of 0.6 %, 4 % and 1.6 % respectively. The UK plans to cut a further
7.5 % up to 2014/15 and Germany another 10 % to 2015.1 The impact of the
economic crises should hence not be underestimated. Economic constraints will
imply a further deterioration of member state military capacities, military
industries, investment in technological research and willingness to contribute to
militaryoperations.
Despitetheselimitations,thecombinedmilitarycapacitiesofthememberstates
remainsecondonlytothoseoftheUSA,thoughlikelytobesurpassedbyChinain
thenextdecade.Thusifthememberstatespooledandsharedtheircapacities,they
wouldbeabletomaintaintheirglobalmilitarystandingforadecade,butthiswould
require the definition of a common ambition for European defense and a clear
understanding of common strategic goals. Increasing global interdependence is
creatingtheconditionsforeffectivecooperationamongdifferentactors.
EffectivemultilateralsolutionscanbestbepursuedusingtheUNframeworkas
an indispensable source of legitimacy. The anti-piracy operations off the coast of
SomaliaareagoodexampleoftheimportanceofincludingChina,Indiaandother
global powers in inclusive multilateral actions to global challenges. It has been
argued that there is a need to revise the 2003 EU Security Strategy to take into
considerationtheshifttowardapost-Westernworld.AsNatividadFerna´ndezSola
stresses, however, a new security strategy would not solve the current chaos by
itself, “but would perhaps force member states to discuss at greater length the
European shared security interests.” The conclusion could be, as in the 2008
revision of the security strategy debate that building a consensus of all twenty-
seven member states will be very difficult. Yet even limited consensus achieved
throughopenandvigorousdebatecanopenthewaytoamoreeffectiveapproachto
theinternationalactionoftheEU.
MorecriticalthanadiscussionoftheEUsecuritystrategywouldbeadiscussion
oftheimplicationsfortheEU,internallyandexternally,oftheongoingtransitionto
1SeeSIPRI—http://www.sipri.org/research/armaments/milex/resultoutput/trends
viii Foreword:TheEUisNotOver
a polycentric and interconnected world.2 This discussion would help Europeans
understand the consequences of their relative international decline and to define
policythatcanhelpEuropeavoidabsolutedecline.ItcouldalsospurEuropeansto
considernewpossibilitiesinshapingtheirroleasaglobalactor,withoutrelyingon
unrealisticdreamsofaEuropeansuperpower.Inthesecurityfield,theEUislikely
tobecomeamoreregionalactorthanaglobalone.Duetothedifficultnatureofthe
security challenges in Eastern Europe, the Caucasus, and the Middle East, an EU
which is able to play a major role in these areas would certainly contribute
significantlytointernationalpeace.ButfortheEUtobeinfluential,itneedstodo
more than enhance its hard power. The EU also needs to maintain its soft power.
For that it must, first and foremost, remain a space of integration based on unity
withindiversity.AsCristinaPacestresses,“TheEuropeanCharterofFundamental
Rights was therefore adopted into the framework of a specific strategy aimed at
developing a European political identity through the recognition of a set of rights
and common values.” In this perspective, the protection of human rights in EU
memberstatesisessentialtopromotetheEU’scredibilityandpoweronbothalocal
and global scale. In contrast, the rise of populism and anti-immigration policies
underminestheEU’sattractiveness,legitimacyandinfluence.
Differentiated Integration
In conclusion, as many of the studies of this book show, there is a gap of
expectations between what the EU is supposed to deliver and the present state of
affairsofEUforeignandsecuritypolicy.Thisgapneedstobeovercomeinorderto
allowtheEUbettertodefendtheinterestofitscitizensinapeacefulinternational
order.
ThreepossiblescenarioscanbeforeseenforthefutureoftheEU:disintegration,
thecreationofafederalsuperstate,ordifferentiatedintegration.Boththedisinte-
gration and federal super state scenarios are highly unlikely. The most likely
scenario for the future of the EU, highlighted by the differing impacts of, and
responsesto,thepresentEurocrisis,seemstobethatofdifferentiatedintegration.
ThiswouldinvolveengaginginaninternalreorganizationoftheEUtoadapttothe
renationalizationofsomepolicyareasbylargerEUmemberstates.Thisrenationa-
lisationlimitstheabilityoftheEUtodevelopcommonpolicies,sodifferentiation
between EU states would deepen on the basis of varying levels of economic or
militarypower.
2See the ESPAS Report ‘Global Trends 2030—Citizens in an Interconnected and Polycentric
World’, edited by A´lvaro Vasconcelos. This Report assesses the long-term, international and
domestic,politicalandeconomicenvironmentfacingtheEuropeanUnionoverthenext20years
http://www.espas.europa.eu/
Foreword:TheEUisNotOver ix
TopreservetheEuropeanproject,aUnionshapedaccordingtoaccommodation
of diverse member state perspectives may be needed. This scenario may entail
memberstates,orcoalitionsofthem,drivingEUforeignpolicyonselectedpriority
issues, depending on respective national agendas. This approach could generate
constructive cooperation between the EU and the national level in specific cases.
TheprovisionsoftheLisbontreatythatfacilitateflexibilityandenhancedcoopera-
tioncan,asthisbookpointsout,accommodatethistrend,butforadifferentUnion
thanthatofasingleuniquevoiceininternationalaffairs.
SuchaUnioncouldstillmakeasubstantialcontributiontoamultilateralglobal
orderbyworkingmorecloselywithotherglobalplayers,includingstates,interna-
tionalinstitutionsandnongovernmentalorganizations.
The EU has an opportunity to lead in the creation of multilateral governance
initiativestoaddressthemajorglobalchallengesthatcitizenswillbefacinginthe
decades to come, such as climate change and human security. If the EU fails, no
otherinternationalactor,includingtheUSA,islikelytotakeonthatimportantrole,
withworrisomeconsequencesforthefutureoftheworld.
Paris,France AlvarodeVasconcelos
