Table Of ContentCopyright ОАО «ЦКБ «БИБКОМ» & ООО «Aгентство Kнига-Cервис»
Copyright ОАО «ЦКБ «БИБКОМ» & ООО «Aгентство Kнига-Cервис»
Global
Perestroika
“ ”
Copyright ОАО «ЦКБ «БИБКОМ» & ООО «Aгентство Kнига-Cервис»
Copyright ОАО «ЦКБ «БИБКОМ» & ООО «Aгентство Kнига-Cервис»
INSTITUTE OF WORLD ECONOMY
AND INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS
(IMEMO)
Global
Perestroika
“ ”
TRANSFORMATIONS
OF THE WORLD ORDER
Edited by Alexander A. Dynkin,
Natalya I. Ivanova
Moscow
VES MIR Publishers
2015
Copyright ОАО «ЦКБ «БИБКОМ» & ООО «Aгентство Kнига-Cервис»
UDK 327
BBK 60.5 + 65.5 +66.4
G52
Contributors:
S.A. Afontsev, A.G. Arbatov, N.K. Arbatova, V.G. Baranovsky, G.I. Chufrin,
I.V. Danilin, V.Z. Dvorkin, A.A. Dynkin, T.U. Farnasova, V.G. Gelbras,
Ye.Sh. Gontmakher, N.I. Ivanova, N.I. Kalinina, A.N. Kalyadin, E.V. Kirichenko,
V.B. Kondratiev, N.I. Kozyrev, A.V. Kuznetsov, V.V. Lapkin, D.B. Malysheva,
V.V. Mikheyev, Ya.M. Mirkin, S.K. Oznobishchev,V.I. Pantin, O.B. Reznikova,
A.V. Ryabov, E.S. Sadovaya, V.A. Sautkina, I.S. Semenenko, I.A. Seyfulmulyukov,
P.V. Topychkanov, I.P. Tsapenko, G.I. Vaynshteyn, F.G. Voitolovsky, A.G. Volodin,
N,V. Zagladin, A.V. Zagorsky, S.V. Zhukov
Editors of sections:
V.G. Baranovsky (Section III Politics and Security), Ye.Sh. Gontmakher (Section II
Socio-Political Processes), N.I. Ivanova (Section I Economy)
Editors of the book:
A.A. Dynkin, N.I. Ivanova
Peer reviewers:
Member-correspondent of the RAS O.N. Bykov, Dr. of economics S.K. Dubinin,
Dr. of history V.Ya. Belokrenitsky, Dr. of philosophy Yu.A. Krasin
The book was originally published in Russian under the title:
Globalnaya perestroika / A.A. Dynkin and N.I. Ivanova. Moscow, VES MIR, 2014.
ISBN 978-5-7777-0589-1
English language edition is the updated version of the Russian language publication.
Translated from Russian by Margret Sutterwaite, Andrei Nikolaev and
Interdialect+ Ltd.
All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in
retrieval system, or transmitted, in any form or by any means without prior
written permission of the Institute of World Economy and International Relations
(IMEMO), Russian Academy of Sciences and VES MIR Publishers
Cover design by Anna Arenstein
Editors gratefully acknowledge the fi nancial support of the BP company
for this English version publication
Printed in the Russian Federation
ISBN 978-5-7777-0595-2 © IMEMO, 2015
© VES MIR Publishers, translation, 2015
Copyright ОАО «ЦКБ «БИБКОМ» & ООО «Aгентство Kнига-Cервис»
CONTENTS
Foreword (A.A. Dynkin). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7
Postbipolar Polycentric World in the Context
of the Ukrainian Crisis (A.A. Dynkin, N.K. Arbatova) . . . . . . . . . . 10
Section I. ECONOMY . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 43
Introduction (N.I. Ivanova). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 45
Chapter 1. Global Economy in the Search
for a New Growth Model (S.A. Afontsev) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 49
Chapter 2. Innovation (N.I. Ivanova, I.V. Danilin) . . . . . . . . . . 64
Chapter 3. The Corporate World Map (A.V. Kuznetsov) . . . . 83
Chapter 4. Regulation of the Global Financial Sector
(Ya.M. Mirkin) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 100
Chapter 5. USA: A Potential for a Qualitatively New Phase
of Socio-Economic Development (E.V. Kirichenko). . . . . 121
Chapter 6. State Companies and Development Banks in
the Contemporary Economy (V.B. Kondratiev). . . . . . . . . 145
Chapter 7. “Non-Conventional Hydrocarbon Revolution”:
Impact on Oil and Natural Gas Markets (S.V. Zhukov,
O.B. Reznikova) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 174
Section II. Socio-Political Processes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 205
Introduction (Ye.Sh. Gontmakher) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 207
Chapter 8. A New Periphery. Challenges of Post-Communist
Development (V. V. Lapkin, V. I. Pantin, A. V. Ryabov) . . . 210
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6 Contents
Chapter 9. Democracy and Challenges of a Changing
World (G. I. Vaynshteyn, N.V. Zagladin, A.V. Ryabov). . . 232
Chapter 10. Transcultural Migration and the Future of
Multiculturalism (I.P. Tsapenko, I.S. Semenenko). . . . . . . 248
Chapter 11. Social Imbalances (E.S. Sadovaya,
V.A. Sautkina) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 272
Chapter 12. 21st Century Individual: In Search of
a New Identity (I.S. Semenenko, V.V. Lapkin) . . . . . . . . . . 296
Section III. Politics and Security . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 311
Introduction (V.G. Baranovsky). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 313
Chapter 13. System of International Relations:
The Emergence of New Realities (V.G. Baranovsky) . . . . 319
Chapter 14. Crisis as Catalyst of European Integration
(N.K. Arbatova) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 363
Chapter 15. New Trends and Controversies of Transatlantic
Relations (F.G. Voitolovsky). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 387
Chapter 16. Dialectic of the US–China Relations
(V.V. Mikheyev, F.G. Voitolovsky). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 424
Chapter 17. AFPAK Zone as a Source of Instability
in the Region and of Threats to International Security
(G.I. Chufrin, V.G. Gelbras, A.G. Volodin, N.I. Kozyrev,
D.B. Malysheva). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 441
Chapter 18. Armed Confl icts in the Middle East in
XXIst Century (D.B. Malysheva). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 476
Chapter 19. International Security: Paradygm Shift
(A.G. Arbatov, V.Z. Dvorkin, A.V. Zagorsky,
N.I. Kalinina, A.N. Kalyadin, S.K. Oznobishchev,
P.V. Topychkhanov,
T.U. Farnasova). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 495
Contributors . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 537
Copyright ОАО «ЦКБ «БИБКОМ» & ООО «Aгентство Kнига-Cервис»
FOREWORD
… any genuinely new trend is a knight’s
move, a change of shadows, a shift that dis-
places the mirror.
V. Nabokov. The Gift
This book is an attempt to make sense of a changing world around us.
Stationary state and evolution are interrelated variables of historical pro-
cess. At times, however, evolution speeds up, ceases to be gradual and
turns into a revolution (social, technological or scientifi c). The global
economic crisis of 2007–2009, also referred to as “The Great Recession”,
has brought the need for change into foreground.
The global world order is amid sweeping changes. A single genera-
tion saw a bipolar world of the Cold War fall apart and the illusions and
excesses of a unipolar world shatter. Now, according to one view, we
are witnessing the emergence of a hierarchical polycentricity or, in an-
other view, a world without poles or a dominant model. Are these views
re levant? A new multi-factor tandem of the USA and China is arising.
Will their relations stabilize or destabilize global development?
What new conceptual economic models will replace Keynesianism
and a tight Chicago-style monetary policy that dominated the pre-glo-
balization world of the 20th century? When will it be safe to say the cri-
sis is a thing of the past, especially in the European Union? Evidently,
welfare market eco nomy in its traditional incarnation has ground to
a halt, due to, in particular, demographic trends. What comes next:
an individual responsibility society? What shape will a new social com-
promise take?
The twentieth century saw a vigorous leap to democracy through
the yawning tragedies of authoritarian and totalitarian experiments
with their expansionism and aggression. Can one assume that market
economies will become, over a foreseeable span of the 21st century,
a universal goal and vehicle of development all around the globe?
The “Arab Spring” is a hasty label coined by journalists. What sea-
sons are yet to come in the vast confl ict-torn region of the Middle East
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8 Foreword
and Northern Africa? Will new failed states – a source of instability
and terrorism – spring up on the region’s map? Can the Sunni and the
Shia be reconciled, how will the Syrian regional “Cold War”, at times
breaking out into a hot phase, end? What will be the outcome of the
struggle for leadership between Iran and Saudi Arabia?
What hazards lurk in the atomization and dispersion of contem-
porary developed world societies? An identity crisis and a crisis of
multiculturalism against the background of mass migration, terrorism,
closed foreign-culture communities: can these challenges be addressed
by legal adjustments of tolerance under a “safe tolerance” policy with-
out spinning into xenophobia and intolerance?
Economic turbulence and a stalemate of negotiations within the
World Trade Organization (WTO) have accelerated the formation of
new regional economic areas in the Northern hemisphere: the Trans-
Atlantic trade and investment partnership, the Trans-Pacifi c partner-
ship. These partnerships envisage not only the abolition of trade duties
and investment barriers, but also unifi cation of standards for goods and
services, uniform government procurement bidding rules, etc. Stimu-
lation of economic growth and competition is expected to be driven
by de-bureaucratization and non-tariff constraints, as well as harmoni-
zation of legislation. Can these help achieve a Trans-Atlantic “renais-
sance” and curb the expansion of Chinese manufacturers?
Finally, the currently subsiding economic crisis brought forth, as
many times before, a new wave of innovations, primarily in the pro-
duction of hydrocarbons and information technologies (IT) In energy
industry this is exemplifi ed by the production of shale gas by horizon-
tal drilling and formation fracturing, as well as the production of shale
oil and bituminous sand oil. Energy innovations already have a strong
impact on the regionalization of energy markets, altering the directions
of goods fl ows and shifting the positions of key global players, both
producers and consumers of hydrocarbons.
In IT, a surge of innovation is represented by a new generation of
mobile devices, tablet computers, cloud programming and databases,
social networks. IT innovations have an even more profound impact,
includ ing changes in lifestyle, localization or global integration of busi-
ness. The dynamics of IT innovation has far-reaching implications for
education, medicine, society, politics, international and military-stra-
tegy, including new equipment for intelligence and warfare operations.
It is highly likely that whole professional areas will transform, many
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Foreword 9
mass professions disappear, and a high and stable structural unemploy-
ment arise, melting the middle class down and, consequently, driving
income polarization. How will these breakthrough innovations change
the hierarchy of key global players? What challenges do they pose for
national political systems and the nature of international relations?
Evidently, issues on the agenda are numerous. Researchers and
politicians of the leading countries are engaged in an active search for
answers to these questions, which dominate global professional, pub-
lic and political debates. Making sense of a new reality and a search
for a post-crisis “new normal” state is the theme that inspired this book,
created by a team of authors from the Institute of Global Economy
and International Relations. What makes this book special is its inter-
disciplinary span, multi-factor angle, and an ensemble of economic,
sociological and political science approaches. This, I hope, will help
give more dimensions to a picture of the contemporary world outlined
in the book.
Academician
Alexander A. DYNKIN
