Global opportunities for airborne wind

174 Pages·2014·13.73 MB·English

Global opportunities
for airborne wind
Master of Science Thesis
A combination of the conjunctive screening method
with multi-criteria decision making to assess the
most suitable nations for airborne wind energy
Master of Science Thesis
December 9, 2014 Ir. J. Wijnja
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Ir. J. Wijnja
October 8, 2014
Faculty of Technology, Policy and Management Delft University of Technology
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Global opportunities for airborne wind
A combination of the conjunctive screening method with
multi-criteria decision making to assess the most suitable
nations for airborne wind energy
Master of Science Thesis
For obtaining the degree of Master of Science in Management of
Technology at Delft University of Technology
Ir. J. Wijnja
December 9, 2014
Faculty of Technology, Policy and Management Delft University of Technology
·
Copyright c Ir. J. Wijnja
(cid:13)
All rights reserved.
Delft University Of Technology
Department Of
Economics of Technology and Innovation
The undersigned hereby certify that they have read and recommend to the Faculty
of Technology, Policy and Management for acceptance a thesis entitled “Global
opportunities for airborne wind” by Ir. J. Wijnja in partial fulfillment of the
requirements for the degree of Master of Science.
Dated: December 9, 2014
Head of department:
Prof.dr. R.W. Kunneke
First supervisor:
Dr. D.J. Scholten
Second supervisor:
Dr.ir. E.J.L Chappin
External supervisor:
Dr. J.R. Ortt
Daily supervisor:
Dr.ir. M. Dignum
Supervisor Google[x] Makani Power:
A. Woodrow

Abstract
It is the objective of this graduation research to determine the nations with the
highest deployment opportunity for airborne wind energy (AWE) generation systems.
Compared to conventional, ground based, wind energy systems, the flying structure
of the airborne wind turbine substitutes the rotor blades and a tether substitutes
the tower. These systems have the potential to harvest electricity against much
lower cost, will soon become commercially available, and could take a significant
share of the growing wind energy market.
A unique top down approach is applied by analyzing all 193 United Nations member
states with a combination of the conjunctive screening method with PROMETHEE-
AHP multi criteria decision making. First, a set of conjunctive screening rules
will determine if the basic conditions for wind energy are present. Nations which
satisfy these rules are subject to a detailed multi criteria analysis. The unique
set of relevant criteria in this analysis are determined from a combination of the
renewable energy planning, and international business literature in combination
with the view of airborne wind energy experts. The relative importance of these
criteria is determined with an expert survey, based on the Analytical Hierarchy
Process (AHP), at which 26 experts participated from various background. A novel
extension to the classical AHP weight factor calculation methodology is proposed,
verified and applied to verify the breakdown of criteria into sub criteria.
The results of this study are compared with the current activity in airborne and
conventional wind energy. This study was able to select the nations with (airborne)
wind energy activity. However this study also showed that many nations with high
opportunities in airborne wind have no current activity in this field. Additionally it
was found that nations, which are characterized by the highest installed capacity do
not necessarily have a highest opportunity for airborne wind and vice versa. Hence
many airborne wind resources in nations with high opportunity for airborne wind
are still untapped and offer a great potential for future energy harvesting. Due to
many similarities of the technologies, the conventional wind energy industry can
also benefit from the results of this study.
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Acknowledgements
This master thesis emerged as a first collaboration project between the faculty
technology, policy and management of Delft University of Technology and Google[x]
Makani Power. From both parties many people inspired, advised and helped to
advance the research challenges I faced.
From the faculty of technology, policy and management I would like to gratefully
´
thank my supervisors Dr. Daniel J. Scholten, Dr.ir. Emile J.L Chappin and Dr.
Roland Ortt for their guidance and valuable discussions, which greatly improved
the quality of this research. I want to especially thank my daily supervisor Dr.ir.
Marloes Dignum for her continuous guidance, help and patience during the entire
project. My appreciation goes to Prof.dr. Rolf W. Kunneke for this involvement
throughout the project and for being the head of the graduation committee.
From Google[x] Makani Power my gratitude goes to the business team lead Alden
Woodrow for many inspirational discussions and the set up of a very interesting and
challenging research project.
My last words go to my parents, friends, family and especially my girlfriend who
supported me throughout the project and who had to continuously compete for
quality time during the Master thesis. When finished, I’ll make up for the lack of
quality time. I promise!
Delft, The Netherlands Ir. J. Wijnja
December 9, 2014
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