Global Monitoring Report 2011: Improving the Odds of Achieving the MDGs

198 Pages·2011·10.46 MB·English

by  World Bank

Global Monitoring Report 2011
Improving the Odds
of Achieving the MDGs

Global Monitoring Report 2011
Improving the Odds of
Achieving the MDGs

Global Monitoring Report 2011
Improving the Odds of
Achieving the MDGs
Heterogeneity, Gaps, and Challenges
© 2011 The International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / The World Bank
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ISBN: 978-0-8213-8700-9
eISBN: 978-0-8213-8701-6
DOI: 10.1596/978-0-8213-8700-9
The painting on the cover, “Faces of Diversity,” is by Tola Wewe; the painting is from his ‘Beauty is
Everywhere’ series and is part of a private collection.
Tola Wewe is a member of the African Artists’ Foundation (AAF), which is a nonprofi t organization
dedicated to the promotion of African art and artists, and the promotion of relevant social issues through
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Cover design by Debra Naylor of Naylor Design
Interior photographs: All photographs are from the National Geographic Society Image Collection. Lynn
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Olson (page 124).
Contents
Foreword . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .xi
Acknowledgments . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .xiii
Acronyms and Abbreviations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . xv
Goals and Targets from the Millennium Declaration . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .xvi
Overview . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1
1 The Diversity of MDG Progress . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11
2 Economic Growth in Developing Countries . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 43
3 Linking Spending and Outcomes: Some Lessons from Impact Evaluations in
Education and Health . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 71
4 Assisting the Indigenous and Socially Excluded . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 103
5 Progress in the International Development and Trading Framework . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 125
Appendix 1: T echnical Issues in Estimating Progress on the MDGs . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 159
Appendix 2: P olicies to Reduce Biodiversity Loss and Enhance Human Development . . . 175
GLOBAL MONITORING REPORT 2011 v
vi CONTENTS GLOBAL MONITORING REPORT 2011
BOXES
1.1 Poverty data and projections . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13
1.2 Gaps and issues in measuring development outcomes beyond 2015 . . . . . . . . . . . . 18
1.3 Improving children’s health through sustainable access to food, water,
and energy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23
1.4 The impact of violence on the MDGs . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 30
1.5 Reducing inequality and poverty in Brazil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 33
2.1 The global food price surge in 2010—causes and prospects . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 46
2.2 Low-income-country exports during the exit from the crisis: early evidence . . . . . . 50
2.3 Emerging market capital infl ows: experience and challenges . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 58
2.4 Fragile states—experience and implications . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 65
3.1 Some impact evaluations have forced a rethinking of our assumptions about
HIV/AIDS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 76
3.2 Spillovers and unintended effects can be important . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 77
3.3 The DIME initiative . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 78
4.1 Who are indigenous peoples? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 104
4.2 The Roma of Europe . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 110
4.3 Vulnerable groups deserve more attention in MDG country reports . . . . . . . . . . . 112
4.4 Bilingual education in Guatemala . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 114
4.5 Examples of successful targeted programs . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 116
5.1 Aid recipients . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 127
5.2 The donor community is enhancing Africa’s trade facilitation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 140
5.3 Special reconstruction allocation for Haiti . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 146
5.4 World Development Report 2011: Confl ict, Security, and Development . . . . . . . . 147
5.5 Open data, open knowledge, and open solutions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 152
5.6 Climate change, natural disasters, and the World Bank Group . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 153
FIGURES
1 The distance to global MDGs ranges widely . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2
2 More than two-thirds of developing countries are on track or close to being
on track . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3
1.1 Current global distance to the MDGs is wide ranging . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12
1.2 Fewer low-income countries are on track to achieve the MDGs . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12
1.3 Countries on target to achieve the MDGs, by region . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15
1.4 More than two-thirds of developing countries are on track or close to being
on track . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22
1.5 MDG performance is stronger in countries with good initial conditions . . . . . . . . . 26
1.6 Subsequent economic growth and policy seem to matter more . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27
1.7 MDG performance lags in IDA and fragile countries . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 29
GLOBAL MONITORING REPORT 2011 CONTENTS vii
1.8 MDG performance is better in countries with greater export sophistication and
shipping connectivity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 31
1.9 The odds of getting on target rise substantially with faster growth and
better policy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 35
1.10 Growth and policy reforms will put many countries on track . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 36
2.1 Low-income economies’ per capita growth remained positive in 2009,
in contrast to elsewhere . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 44
2.2 Economic recovery has taken many commodity prices sharply higher . . . . . . . . . . . 45
2.3 Bond spreads and international bond issuance are virtually back to precrisis
levels in emerging and developing countries . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 47
2.4 Share prices, too, have bounced back . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 47
2.5 Emerging market bank fi nancing continues to recover . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 47
2.6 Nonperforming loans in emerging and developing countries, 2003–10 . . . . . . . . . . 48
2.7 Global current account imbalances, 2000–11 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 48
2.8 Annual changes in terms of trade, by quintile group . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 49
2.9 Reserve levels broadly kept pace with the rebound in trade. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 49
2.10 L ow-income countries’ precrisis macroeconomic policy buffers were stronger
than in earlier years . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 50
2.11 Macroeconomic policy responses to the crisis vary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 53
2.12 Monetary policy loosening . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 54
2.13 A verage year-on-year growth in money and the money gap in emerging
market economies . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 54
2.14 Fiscal defi cit, 2008–11 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 55
2.15 Low-income countries: fi scal balances and economic crises . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 55
2.16 R eal primary expenditure in low-income countries has increased in favor
of public investment and social sectors . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 55
2.17 Macroeconomic policy quality in low-income countries remained little changed. . . 56
2.18 The overall debt outlook in low-income countries seems favorable as fi scal
buffers are being rebuilt along with the recovery . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 63
2.19 L ow-income countries projected to cut real spending tend to have high defi cits
and debt . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 63
2.20 T he current account balance is projected to improve gradually in low-income
countries as exports rebound . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 64
2.21 R eserve cushions would not improve much among low-income countries with
relatively low reserves . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 64
3.1 Government and donor spending on health and education is unprecedented. . . . . . 72
3.2 The relationship between expenditure and learning outcomes is weak . . . . . . . . . . 73
3.3 There are wide differences in the share of public health spending going to the
rich and the poor . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 73
3.4 Links between public expenditure and human development outcomes . . . . . . . . . . 74
4.1 Progress is mixed in reducing the poverty of indigenous groups . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 106
4.2 Test results show how stigma can be internalized . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 108
viii CONTENTS GLOBAL MONITORING REPORT 2011
4.3 Heterogeneity has a negative effect on test scores . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 108
4.4 Both poor and rich countries show gaps in life expectancy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 110
5.1 Impact of banking crises on net disbursed aid provided by crisis-affected donors,
1977–2007 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 128
5.2 Exports have yet to recover their precrisis trend . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 132
5.3 Merchandise export volume . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 133
5.4 Trade-restrictive measures have fallen since 2008 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 134
5.5 Newly initiated trade remedy investigations have peaked . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 134
5.6 Trade-restrictive and trade-liberalizing measures, November 2009–
October 2010 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 135
5.7 Local-to-global connectivity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 142
5.8 Regional trends in aid for trade, 2002–09 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 144
A1.1 Odds of achieving the MDGs improve with growth and better policy . . . . . . . . . . 171
MAPS
1.1 The world is still on track to meet the poverty reduction target . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25
1.2 Sub-Saharan Africa and Southern Asia are home to the vast majority of
children out of school . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 37
2.1 GDP: Economic growth in 2009 and 2010 has been uneven . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 60
2.2 Fiscal balance: Countries are diverging in their responses to fi scal challenges . . . . . 61
3.1 The maternal mortality rate is declining only slowly, even though the vast
majority of deaths are avoidable . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 79
3.2 Each year of a girl’s education reduces, by as much as 10 percent, the risk of
her children dying before age fi ve . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 85
4.1 Almost nine million children still die each year before they reach their fi fth
birthday . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 109
4.2 For girls in some African countries, secondary education remains elusive . . . . . . 115
5.1 Across the world, 884 million people lack access to safe water—around 80
percent of them in rural areas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 137
5.2 With half the people in developing regions without sanitation, the 2015 target
appears to be out of reach . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 141
A2.1 A verage change in species populations, relative to the intact situation
(mean species abundance), 2000 and 2050. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 176
TABLES
1 Lagging countries are close to getting on target . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4
2 Growth and CPIA scores are higher in countries on track or close to being
on track . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5
3 Global output, 2007–14 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6
1.1 Several low-income countries are achieving the MDGs . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16
1.2 Lagging countries are close to getting on target . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19