Table Of ContentOUPCORRECTEDPROOF–FINAL,28/7/2015,SPi
Global Energy
OUPCORRECTEDPROOF–FINAL,28/7/2015,SPi
OUPCORRECTEDPROOF–FINAL,28/7/2015,SPi
Global Energy
Issues, Potentials, and
Policy Implications
Edited by
Paul Ekins, Michael Bradshaw,
and Jim Watson
1
OUPCORRECTEDPROOF–FINAL,28/7/2015,SPi
3
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OUPCORRECTEDPROOF–FINAL,28/7/2015,SPi
n FOREWORD AND ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
This book is one of the major outputs of the last five years’ work of the UK Energy
ResearchCentre(UKERC).Thegreatmajorityof thechaptersaretheresultof UKERC
projects or special collaborations between UKERC researchers. The book seeks to
respondtoUKERC’smainremitofadopting,exploring,andexplaininga‘wholesystem
approach’ to the complex issues raised by the supply and demand of energy globally in
the twenty-first century.
Our first acknowledgement, therefore, must be to Research Councils UK (RCUK),
which funds the interdisciplinary research of UKERC through its Energy Programme,
and thereby enabled this book to be produced.
Oursecondacknowledgementistoourauthorsandpeerreviewers.Eachchapterwas
peerreviewedbytwootherauthorsexpertinthefield,therebycontributingsignificantly
to the quality of this work.
Finally we would like to acknowledge the support staff, Katherine Welch, Alison
Parker, Aimee Walker, and Kiran Dhillon at University College London’s Institute for
Sustainable Resources, and the editorial team at Oxford University Press (OUP), for
ensuringthatthebookcameinmoreorlessontimeandwasproducedwithOUP’susual
efficiency and excellence.
This is notthe firstbook onglobalenergy issues in thiscentury, butit isshorterand
we hope, therefore, more accessible than some other notable publications, such as the
Global Energy Assessment of 2012 or the annual World Energy Outlook of the Inter-
nationalEnergyAgency.Whileitinevitablygoesintolessdetailthanthesemuchlonger
publications, its coverage of the issues is comparable, and it includes one or two new
topics,suchasthematerialuseofenergysystemsandtheimpactsofenergytechnologies
on ecosystems and ecosystem services. We very much hope that this book will help the
present and next generation of teachers, students, policy makers, and citizens with an
interest in energy issues to develop a clearer understanding of the ‘whole system
approach’totheseissues,sothattheymaybebetterabletocontributetotheresolution
of the urgent, complex and interacting energy system problems which now face
humanity.
Paul Ekins, Deputy Director, UKERC, and University College London
Michael Bradshaw, Warwick Business School
Jim Watson, Research Director, UKERC
OUPCORRECTEDPROOF–FINAL,28/7/2015,SPi
OUPCORRECTEDPROOF–FINAL,28/7/2015,SPi
n CONTENTS
LISTOFFIGURES ix
LISTOFTABLES xv
LISTOFCONTRIBUTORS xvii
Introduction 1
PARTI GLOBALENERGY:CONTEXTANDIMPLICATIONS 7
1 Theglobalenergycontext 9
JimSkea
2 Energysystemsandinnovation 34
JimWatson,XinxinWang,andFlorianKern
3 Deepeningglobalization:economies,trade,andenergysystems 52
GavinBridgeandMichaelBradshaw
4 Theglobalclimatechangeregime 73
JoannaDepledge
5 Theimplicationsofindirectemissionsforclimateandenergypolicy 92
KatyRoelich,JohnBarrett,andAnneOwen
6 Energyproductionandecosystemservices 112
RobertHolland,KateScott,TinaBlaber-Wegg,NicolaBeaumont,
EleniPapathanasopoulou,andPeteSmith
7 Technical,economic,social,andculturalperspectivesonenergydemand 125
CharlieWilson,KathrynB.Janda,FrançoiseBartiaux,andMithraMoezzi
8 Energyaccessanddevelopmentinthetwenty-firstcentury 148
XavierLemaire
PARTII GLOBALENERGY:OPTIONSANDCHOICES 161
9 Improvingefficiencyinbuildings:conventionalandalternativeapproaches 163
KathrynB.Janda,CharlieWilson,MithraMoezzi,andFrançoiseBartiaux
10 Challengesandoptionsforsustainabletravel:mobility,motorization,and
vehicletechnologies 189
HannahDaly,PaulE.Dodds,andWillMcDowall
11 Shippingandaviation 209
AntonyEvansandTristanSmith
OUPCORRECTEDPROOF–FINAL,28/7/2015,SPi
viii CONTENTS
12 Carboncaptureandstorage 229
JimWatsonandCameronJones
13 Fossilfuels:reserves,costcurves,production,andconsumption 244
MichaelBradshaw,AntonyFroggatt,ChristopheMcGlade,andJamieSpeirs
14 Unconventionalfossilfuelsandtechnologicalchange 268
MichaelBradshaw,MurtalaChindo,JosephDutton,andKärgKama
15 Thegeopoliticaleconomyofaglobalizinggasmarket 291
MichaelBradshaw,JosephDutton,andGavinBridge
16 NuclearpowerafterFukushima:prospectsandimplications 306
MarkkuLehtonenandMariMartiskainen
17 Bioenergyresources 331
RaphaelSladeandAusilioBauen
18 Solarenergy:anuntappedgrowingpotential? 354
ChiaraCandelise
19 Water:oceanenergyandhydro 377
LauraFinlay,HenryJeffrey,AndyMacGillivray,andGeorgeAggidis
20 Globalwindpowerdevelopmentsandprospects 404
WillMcDowallandAndrewZPSmith
21 Networkinfrastructureandenergystorageforlow-carbonenergysystems 426
PaulE.DoddsandBirgitFais
22 Metalsforthelow-carbonenergysystem 452
JamieSpeirsandKatyRoelich
23 Electricitymarketsandtheirregulatorysystemsforasustainablefuture 476
CatherineMitchell
PARTIII GLOBALENERGYFUTURES 497
24 Globalscenariosofgreenhousegasemissionsreduction 499
ChristopheMcGlade,OlivierDessens,GabrialAnandarajah,andPaulEkins
25 Energyandecosystemserviceimpacts 525
EleniPapathanasopoulou,RobertHolland,TrudieDockerty,KateScott,
TinaBlaber-Wegg,NicolaBeaumont,GailTaylor,GillaSünnenberg,
AndrewLovett,PeteSmith,andMelanieAusten
26 Policiesandconclusions 538
PaulEkins
AUTHORINDEX 569
GENERALINDEX 577
OUPCORRECTEDPROOF–FINAL,28/7/2015,SPi
n LIST OF FIGURES
1.1 Globalprimaryenergydemandbyregion 12
1.2 EvolutionofenergyuseandGDPpercapita1971–2011 13
1.3 Globalprimaryenergydemandbyfuel 15
1.4 EnergydemandbysectorinOECDandnon-OECDcountries 16
1.5 Proportionoffinalenergydemandmetbyelectricity 17
1.6 Marketsforoilproducts 18
1.7 Supplycostsofliquidfuels 20
1.8 ProjectedUSnaturalgasproduction 21
1.9 Regionalimportsofcrudeoil 22
1.10 Regionalimportsofnaturalgas 23
1.11 Regionalexportsofcoal 23
1.12 Oilandcoalprices1971–2012 24
1.13 Regionalgasprices1971–2012 25
1.14 GlobalenergyrelatedCO emissions 26
2
1.15 Primaryenergydemandindifferentglobalenergyscenarios/projectionsfor2040 29
2.1 TotalgovernmentspendingbyIEAmembercountries(1974–2012) 40
2.2 GovernmentR&DspendingbytheEU,USA,andJapan(1991–2010) 41
2.3 GovernmentenergyR&Dspendinginthe‘BRICS’countries,Mexico,andtheUSA 42
2.4 EnergytechnologypatentapplicationsfiledunderthePatentCo-operationTreaty 43
2.5 Globalnewinvestmentincleanenergybysector2004–13($bn) 45
3.1 Labourproductivityandenergyuse 54
3.2 Internationalconvergenceinenergyintensity 65
5.1 Consumption,production,andterritorialgreenhousegasemissionsfortheUK 95
5.2 UncertaintyassociatedwithUKconsumption-basedCO Emissions(as
2
calculatedusingEE-MRIOanalysis) 97
5.3 FutureGHGemissionsshowingdomestic(productionminusexports)and
indirect(thoseassociatedwiththeproductionofgoodsimportedtotheUK)
emissionsfortheUK 99
5.4 LifecycleGHGemissionsofelectricitygenerationtechnologies 100
5.5 Contributionofdomestic(UKproductionminusexports)andindirect
(thoseassociatedwiththeproductionofgoodsimportedtotheUK)emissions
bysectorfortheUK2010 102
5.6 Decompositionofnetexportsofindirectemissionsforselectedcountries(2009) 104
