Global crises, global solutions

711 Pages·2009·14.23 MB·English

by  edited by Bjørn Lomborg.

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Global Crises, Global Solutions
Second edition
The fi rst edition of Global Crises, Global Solutions
was nominated as one of the books of the year
by The Economist in 2004. This new edition is
entirely revised and updated but retains the format
that made the fi rst edition a bestseller and one of
the most widely discussed policy books of recent
times.
If we had more money to spend to help the
world’s poorest people, where could we spend it
most eff ectively? Using a common framework
of cost-benefi t analysis, a team of leading
economists, including fi ve Nobel Prize winners,
assess the attractiveness of a wide range of
policy options for combating ten of the world’s
biggest problems: air pollution, confl icts, diseases,
education, global warming, malnutrition and
hunger, sanitation and clean water, subsidies
and trade barriers, terrorism, women and
development. The arguments are clearly
presented and fully referenced so that readers
are encouraged to make their own evaluation of

the menu of policy options on off er. Whether
you agree or disagree with the economists’
conclusions, there is a wealth of data and ideas to
discuss and debate!
BJØRN LOMBORG is Director of the
Copenhagen Consensus Center and Adjunct
Professor in the Department of Management,
Politics and Philosophy at Copenhagen Business
School. He is the author of the controversial
bestseller, The Skeptical Environmentalist
(Cambridge, 2001), and was named as one of the
most globally infl uential people by Time magazine
in 2004.

Global Crises,
Global
Solutions
second edition
Edited by
BJØRN LOMBORG
cambridge university press
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© Cambridge University Press 2009
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permission of Cambridge University Press.
First published 2009
Reprinted 2010
Printed in the United Kingdom at the University Press, Cambridge
A catalogue record for this publication is available from the British Library
ISBN 978-0-521-57121-8 hardback
ISBN 978-0-52174122-4 paperback
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Contents
List of fi gures vii
List of tables x
List of contributors xv
Acknowledgements xxiv
List of abbreviations and acronyms xxv
Introduction 1
Bjørn Lomborg
PART I THE CHALLENGES
1 Air pollution 7
Bjørn Larsen, with Guy Hutton and Neha
Khanna
alternative perspectives
1.1 Jitendra Shah 50
2 The security challenge in confl ict-prone
countries 58
Paul Collier, Lisa Chauvet, and Håvard Hegre
alternative perspectives
2.1 Ibrahim A. Elbadawi 104
2.2 Andrew Mack 115
3 Disease control 126
Dean T. Jamison, Prabhat Jha, and David E.
Bloom
alternative perspectives
3.1 David Canning 164
3.2 Ramanan Laxminarayan 172
4 The benefi ts and costs of alternative strategies
to improve educational outcomes 180
Peter F. Orazem, Paul Glewwe, and Harry
Patrinos
alternative perspectives
4.1 Victor Lavy 215
4.2 Lant Pritchett 227
v
vi Contents
5 Climate change 236
Gary W. Yohe, Richard S.J. Tol, Richard G. Richels, and
Geoff rey J. Blanford
alternative perspectives
5.1 Chris Green 281
5.2 Anil Markandya 298
6 Hunger and malnutrition 305
Sue Horton, Harold Alderman, and Juan A. Rivera
alternative perspectives
6.1 Reynaldo Martorell 334
6.2 Anil B. Deolalikar 347
7 Water and sanitation 355
Dale Whittington, W. Michael Hanemann, Claudia Sadoff ,
and Marc Jeuland
alternative perspectives
7.1 Jennifer Davis 430
7.2 Frank R. Rijsberman and Alix Peterson Zwane 440
8 The challenge of reducing international trade and
migration barriers 451
Kym Anderson and L. Alan Winters
alternative perspectives
8.1 Alan V. Deardorff 504
8.2 Anthony J. Venables 511
9 Transnational terrorism 516
Todd Sandler, Daniel G. Arce and Walter Enders
alternative perspectives
9.1 S. Brock Blomberg 563
9.2 Michael D. Intriligator 577
10 Women and development 585
Elizabeth M. King, Stephan Klasen, and Maria Porter
alternative perspectives
10.1 Lawrence Haddad 638
10.2 Aysit Tansel 642
PART II RANKING THE OPPORTUNITIES
Expert panel ranking 657
Jagdish Bhagwati, Francois Bourgignon, Finn E. Kydland,
Robert Mundell, Douglass C. North, Thomas C. Schelling,
Vernon L. Smith and Nancy L. Stokey
Conclusion 680
Bjørn Lomborg
Figures
1.1 Annual deaths from household 3.5 Increase in tobacco-related deaths
SFU air pollution, 2002 9 as populations age 149
1.2 Household SFU prevalence rates 3.2.1 P HC infrastructure 173
and GNI per capita 10 3.2.2 P HC staffi ng 173
1.3 Deaths from SFU in relation 4.1 Returns to schooling, by high
to child mortality rates and life and low values of the Heritage
expectancy 11 Economic Freedom Index,
1.4 Demographic projections, 2005–55 12 1990–2004 183
1.5 Population weighted exposure to 4.2 Distribution of self-reported
indoor particulates (PM 10) 14 literacy by grade attainment for
1.6 S tove effi ciency and capital costs 16 youth aged 15–24, various countries 184
1.7 Household use of fuel wood, by 4.3A Proportion of male and female
children’s underweight status 23 urban population completing
1.8 B/C ratio of fuel substitution, grades 1, 5, and 9 in seventy-two
relative to ignoring nutritional status 24 developing countries 188
1.9 Estimated deaths from urban PM, 4.3B Proportion of male and female
2002 26 rural population completing
1.1.1 PM 10 levels in selected cities in grades 1, 5, and 9 in seventy-two
Asia, 2005 and 2006 51 developing countries 189
1.1.2 Ranking of measures to reduce 4.4A Proportion of male urban and
traffi c emissions in Mexico City 55 rural population completing
2.1 A rmed confl icts by intensity, grades 1, 5, and 9 in seventy-two
1946–2006 61 developing countries 190
2.2 A rmed confl icts, by region, 4.4B Proportion of female urban and
1946–2006 62 rural population completing
2.3 Number of confl icts and of new grades 1, 5, and 9 in seventy-two
confl icts, 1950–2006 62 developing countries 190
2.2.1 Average number of coups per year 5.1 Identifying the signal of
in SSA, 1946–2006 124 anthropogenic warming on
3.1 Age distribution of deaths of continental scales 238
children under fi ve in low- and 5.2A Emissions distributions over time
middle-income countries, 2001 132 across the four SRES storylines of
3.2 Changes in GDP and full income economic development 242
per capita in Kenya, 1960–2000 135 5.2B Projections of surface temperatures
3.3 Intervention costs and eff ects: a for the 2020s and 2090s 243
more general view 137 5.3 Potential changes in cereal yields,
3.4 U nder-fi ve deaths from HIV/AIDs, 2080s 247
malaria, and other causes, 1990 5.4A Geographical distribution of
and 2001, SSA 140 vulnerability, 2050 249
vii
viii List of fi gures
5.4B Geographical distribution of 6.2.2 Child nutrition rates, by per capita
vulnerability, 2100 249 expenditure quintile, 2000 349
5.5A Geographical distribution across 6.2.3 Projected decline in percent of
India of stress from climate change underweight children, 1998–2015,
and globalization 250 India 350
5.5B Climate change can be its own 6.2.4 Estimated contributions of factors
source of multiple stress 251 to reductions in developing-
5.6 Emissions for alternative policies, country child malnutrition, 1970–95 351
2000–2140 254 7.1 Infrastructure coverage as a
5.7 Increases in global mean function of household income,
temperature for alternative from Komives et al. (2003) 371
policies, 2000–2140 255 7.2 Demand curve for water as
5.8 Trajectories of global damages for a function of collection time,
the fi ve alternatives, 2000–2300 257 identifying two types of benefi ts
5.9 Trajectories of global benefi ts obtained (time-savings and
for the fi ve intervention policies, quantity-related benefi ts) 380
2000–2300 257 7.3 Network water and sanitation
5.10 Trajectories of global benefi ts services: distribution of
for the alternative approaches, benefi t–cost ratio outcomes from
2000–2300 259 Monte Carlo simulation (10,000
5.11 Trajectories of estimated market draws) with uniform parameter
damages, 2000–2300 260 distributions, assuming a) 60–90%
5.12 Trajectories of estimated non- and b) 100% eff ectiveness against
market damages, 2000–2300 261 diarrheal disease 384
5.13 Trajectories of global benefi ts 7.4 Network water and sanitation
for the four intervention policies, intervention sensitivity analyses:
2000–2100 262 eff ect of selected parameters on
5.14 Cumulative distribution of MPV BCR (90% confi dence intervals,
of mitigation only for the “when holding other parameters at base
fl exibility” benchmark 264 case values) 385
5.15 Cumulative distributions of 7.5 Network water and sanitation
benefi ts of mitigation only fo r the intervention: the eff ect of the VSL
“when fl exibility” benchmark, parameter on the BCR simulation
2050–2300 264 outcomes 386
5.1.1 Impact of technology on global 7.6 Borehole with public hand pump:
carbon emissions, 2000–2100 284 distribution of BCR outcomes
5.2.1 Range of damage estimates in from Monte Carlo simulation
diff erent studies 299 (10,000 draws) with uniform
5.2.2 Range of studies on climate parameter distributions 394
impacts 300 7.7 Comparison of cumulative
6.1.1 Prevalence of stunting, distribution of BCR outcomes
underweight, wasting, and obesity for borehole and public hand
in children <fi ve years in Bolivia 336 pump given assumptions about
6.1.2 M ean Z-scores for height-for-age parameter distributions (uniform
relative to WHO standards in or normal) 394
national data for Peru, 2000 337 7.8 Deep borehole with public hand
6.2.1 The world’s child malnutrition pump – sensitivity analyses: eff ect
problem: South Asia and SSA 348 of selected parameters on BCR