Global Catastrophic Risks

580 Pages·2008·12.8 MB·English

by  Nick Bostrom

GlobCaalt astroRpihsikcs

GlobaCla tastrophic
Risks
Editbeyd
NicBko strom
MilMa.nC irkovic
OXFORD
UNIVERSTIYP RESS
OXFORD
UNIVERSITPYR ESS
GreaCtl aerndoSnt reOextf,o rOdX 26 DP
Oxford UnivPerressiisst dyae partmoefnt th eU niverosfiOt xyof rd.
Itfu rthetrhseU niversoibtjye'cst oifev xec elleinnrc ees earscchh,o larship,
ande ducatbiyop nu blishing woirnl dwide
OxforNde wY ork
AucklaCnad pTeo wnD areSsa laaHmo ngK ongK arachi
KualLau mpurM adrid MelbMoeuxrinceCo i tNy airobi
NewD elhSih anghTaaii peTio ronto
Witho fficeisn
ArgentiAnuas trBiraa zCihli lCez ecRhe publFirca ncGer eece
GuatemaHluan garIyat lyj apaPno lanPdo rtugSailn gapore
SoutKho rea SwitzTehralialnadTn udr keUyk rainVei etnam
Oxforids rae gistterraeddme a rko fO xforUdn iverPsrietys s
int heU K andi nc ertaoitnh ecro untries
Publisihnet dh eU niteSdt ates
byO xforUdn iverPsriteysI sn cN.e,w Y ork
© OxofrdU niverPsriteys2 s0 08
Them orarli ghotfts h e authhaovrbese eans serted
Databarsieg hOtx forUdn iverPsirteys( sm aker)
Firpsutb lis2h0e0d8
Alrl ighrtess ervNeodp .a rotft hipsu blicamtaiyob ner eproduced,
storienda r etriseyvsatle omr,t ransmititnae ndyf, or m orb ya nym eans,
withotuhtep ripoerr missiinwo rni tionfOg x forUdn iversPirteys s,
ora se xprespselrym itbtyel da wo,r u ndetre rmasg reewdit thh ea ppropriate
reprograrpihgihcotsrs g anizaEtniqouni.r cioensc ernrienpgr oduction
outsitdhees copoeft hea bovseh oubleds enttot heR ighDtesp artment,
OxforUdn iversPirteysa stt, h ea ddreasbso ve
Youm ustn otc ircutlhaitbseo oki na nyo thebri ndionrgc o ver
andy oum usti mposteh es amec onditoino na ancyq uirer
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Dataav ailable
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Dataav ailable
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ISBN97 8-01-9-96006-54( Pbk)
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13579108642
Acknowledgements
Iitso uprl eastuoar cek nowltehmdeag nepy e oplei nasntdi twuhtohi aovnes
ino nwea yo ra notchoenrt ritbotu htceeo dm pleotfti hobinos o Oku.rh ome
inisttut-ihotenF su tuorfHe um aniItnyis ttuitnte h Oex ofrMda rtSinc hool
atO xofrUdn iveirtasyn tdh Aes tronoOmbiescravlao tfoBr elyg ra-dhea ve
offereedn vironcmoenndtustc oi vcoeru orsi ssc-idplinaryM iulnadne rtaking.
wisheasc ktnoo wtlheOedxg oferC do llHegosepsi tSaclhietamyne td h Oep en
ScoieFtoyu ndaotfBi elognr aford ep al eatsiamnietnO xofrbda cikn2 004
during twhhbiiosco phkr ojweaccsto nceNiivcekd .w tiots hhaeenssk p ecially
JamMeastr iann Ldo Sul akifnrodt heviirs iosnuaprpyo rt.
Physiacnipdso tl ymathR .CS ohsamlai zaine ngtadivrreae of ftt h beo ok
ac lose, aenridum dmietnesh eellyp fulr ecardiWitenio gcw.ae lg rae daetb t
ofg ratittoAu ldiesJ oonn Jeess,s Cihcuar chamnaDdne wJia ckosfOo xnof rd
UnivietPryrs ewshsot, o oskom ucihn teirnteh spetr ojaenhcdet l psehde pherd
ita croasr sa nogfet imsec alWees .a rea paplrsteoic voiefat hsec ientific
assstianbcyPe e tTeary laonrd aRealHfail lerbarnadfnro da dmirnaitsitve
suppboyrR ta chWeolo dcoMcikr,iW aomo d aAnrdm iJtoa ge.
We thJaonhLkne sfloris et imuloauitrni tnegir nee xsttr reimmseak n yye ars
agWoe. thank GMaavtehrJeiuwcl kSi,vaa unl eSstceuRv,ae y nIerre,Dn iak lic,
SloboPdoapno Tvaincj,a KBeenDr .Oi lcu,mI t,sv aAnr ansyiMo,a xTe gmark,
VesMnial oseviTco-bZOydr jdAe,nl daeSrr,as nb derBgi,Jl olMy a,j Bau latovic,
AlaRno bertJsaomnHe,us g hReosb,e JrB.tar dbuZroyr,Za inv koMviicch,a el
VassZeorr,Ka nne zeIvviacDn,ra a gicaenvSdiu csR,ao ng efrorps l eaasnadn t
usuelfd iscusosfii sosnursee lse tvoat nhtbi so oDke.s paiorfpi rnogd ucing
ane xhausatcikvneo wledogfee vmeeonnu trm osdti reacntdi mmediate
intelldeecbt-tuwsah li cehx tebnedy osncdi einnctteoh h eu maniatnide s
evemnu sic, laintader r-taw tehu urmeb,al pyo lotgoai lzwleh omw eh ave
egreginoeugslleyc ted.
Finallealtlyt l,h f eua latnssd h ortcoomfti hnsigtssu bdeya ni mpeftoru s
othetord sob ettWeer .t hianan dkv ancew htoth aokusepet his challenge.

Foreword
In1 90H3.G,. W ellgsa vae l ectauttr hee RIosnytailt uitnLi oonnd on,
highlitghhreti iosnfgkg l odbiasla 'sIititesmr p:o sspirbolcel'at,ihy meoe udn g
Well'sts,oh owwh yc erttahiinns ghso unlodut t tedrelsyt arnodey n dt he
humarna caen sdt owrhyyn; i gshhto unlodpt r esecnotmldeyo wn maankde
all dorueraa mnsed ff ortvsa. in.. s.o methforimns gp acoerp, e stiloern ce,
somger edaits eoafts heae t mospshoemrteer ,a icloimnegtp aoriyss oonm,e
greeamta natoifvo anp ofuorrmt hien teorfti hoer eoarnr etwah n,i mtaol s
preoynu so,rs omder uogrw reckmiandgn eisnts h mei nodf nm.aW'e lls'
pessimdiesepme innhe idls a tyeera hresl ;i ved lontgol eeanarobnuo guth
HiroshainmNdaa gaksiaa nddi eidn1 496.
Inth yaeta sro,mp eh ysiactCi hsitcssa tgaora jt oeudr cnaaltllh eBedu llofe tin
AtoSmciice anitmiaesptdtr osm,o atrimncsgo ntTrho'el l.o ognto h'Be u lilne'ts
covieasrc lotchkce,l oseonfwe hsoshs aen tdomsi dniignhdti ctahetede oisrt 's
jdugemeonnt h porwe catrhiweoo urssl idt uiatsEi.vo efnre yyw e atrhmsei nute
hands hitisef edi,t fhroewra rodrbs a ckwards.
Througthhodeue tc aodfet shC eo lWda rt,h een tWierset eWronr lwda s
atg rehaatz aTrhdes. u perpowehrasvs etc uomubltldoe wda Arrdmsa geddon
thromuugdhd alnedm isaclculaWteai roneno .vt e rrya tiionna asls essing
relartiisvIkens. o mceo ntewxeat sra,eb surrdilsyk -aWveef rersta eb.o ut
statisttiinrcyia slklsy; ciarnfcoo idan,o o ngee-nisn -ac-hmainolcfle i boeni ng
kililnte rda cirna sahnesdso f, ro tBhu.t moofs wtue sr' ei n denitahle' about
frag reateorfd eraiitsnahkn uclceaatra strophe.
In1 899t,h Beu ltlienc'lsowc aks bpaucttkos evenmtieneuntt ome isd night.
Theiresn owf ral ecshsa nctee noosftf h uosanodfbs o mbdse vastoautri ng
civiliBzuattth ieiorasneg . r owriinosgfak f egw oionfgif na l ocalized conflict.
Wea rceo rnofntbeypd r oelriaftoifno unc lweeaarp oanmso nmgo rnea ti-ons
anpde rheavpestn hr ei skth oeifr b ytu esrer gorroiuspts .
Moerovetrh,te h reoafgt l obnaulc lceaatra stcrooupblhedme e rely in
temporary Daubreiytnahgnle ca ecs.et n ttuhrSey vo ieUtn iorno saen d
flelt;h ere were wtawroIs .ntw honere lxdt huynedarrgesed,o political
realigncmoeubnletdj s u asstd raslteiacd,ti oann gu clsetaarn fdb -eotfween
news uperpowwheircmshi, g bheth andlleeasdds e p(tollrye l susc kily) than
thCeu bcar iasnitdsh ,oe t hteern msoem enotfts h Ceo lWda re rTah.ne u clear
Foreword
Vlll
thrweiaaltll w abyews i tuhs- iitbs a soenfd un damen(tanadl psucbileinct)i fic
idetahsda att forem t h1e9 03s.
Desptihtheea zartdhesar,re te o,d asyo,mg ee nugirnoeu nfordb se ian g
techno-oFpotri mmiosstt.i nmp oesontpa ltneis ot,h ehraens e vbeere an
betttiemrte ob ea liTvheei. n novatthiaotn dsrw iievlcelo noamdivca -nce
inofrmattieocnh noblioogtye,c hannondl aongoyt ech-ncoalbnoo gotysh te
develoapswi enlaglst hdee velwooprelTddw .e ntyc-efnitrtusertcy h nologies
couolffdrel eisftytlheaasrte e n vironmbeennti-agilnnlvyo llvoiwndeger m a­
ndosn e nerogrry e soutrhcatenhs o dseem anbdyew dh awtec onsaig doeord
leit fodAanydw. e c ould rraeiatsdhfeieun l dy-s werteh etrhepe o liwtii­lclal
tol itfhtwe o lrdt'wsbo i llmioosnt -depperoipfvolremedt heeixrt rpeomvee rty.
But, wailtothnh geh soep etsw,e ntyc-efnitrtusertcy h nowlioclgolyrn ofnt
usw ith gnleowtb harle -asttse mmfiornmgb ioc-y,b aenre-dn vironmental­
scieanscw ee,la lsf o rmp hys-itchsca otu bleda sg raavste h beo mbT.h e
Bullectlionic'skns o wc losteom ri dniagghatiT nh.e steh remaatys not
trigger wosruldddwceiandt ea st-rtohpdeho eo mscdlaoyic snk o stu cah
good me-tbauptthh oery ianar geg,r edgiastqeu,ia entcdih nagl leTnhgei ng.
tensbieotnwsbe eenni agnndd a magsipnigfn s-fo romfn ewt echnosla,on gdi e
thteh reatsb ytp hoPesr eodm etphoewaesnrc ieanrcdeei ,s quierteianlg.l y
Wellsp'e ssimmiigsehmvt e n dheaevpee fnuretdhw eerrh eew riting today.
Ontey poeft hrceoamtef orsm h umanictoyl'lsea ccttiiwvoeean rsee;r oding
naturreaslo ucrhcaensg,ti hncegl imraatvea,g ing thaen ddbr iiovsipnhge re
mansyp ectioee xst ionnc.t i
Climcahtaen lgoeo mst hatesw entyc-efnitrusnrtuy m'bse re-novnier ­
onmencthaall lTehnemg oes.vt u lnepreaobpl-elfo rei nstainnAc frei,oc ra
Bangla-daertseh hlee aasbtlt oea daBpetc.a oufts hebe u rnoiffnos gs fiuelsl ,
thCe0 2c oncentirnta htaeit omno spihsae lrree haidgyht ehrai nt ehvaesr
beeinnt hlea hsatml ifl lyieoa-nra sn idt r iissei vnefgsar t eTrh.eh ighCe02r
ristehse, grewaatremri -ntaghn ed , immoproer sttaintlthlg e,r e awtielrl
bet hceh anocfte r iggseormientggh rianavgne id r reverrissiibnlge :s ea levels
duet ot hmee ltoifnG gr eenliacnedca'anspsd of ortThh.e g lowbaalr ming
indubcyet dhf eos sfiuell wse b urtnh ciesn tcuoruyll edat dos elae vreils es
thcaotn tifnoru meai llenonrmi ourme .
Thes cieonfcc lei mcahtaeni gisen triBcuiatitt ss e i.m pcloem patrote hde
econoamnipdco liticalo frc ehsaplolntedoini tgTn.heg e m arkfeiatl utrhea t
leatdogs l owbaarlm ipnogsa eu sn iqcuhea llferotn wgroee asFoinrsus.nt l,i ke
thceo nsequoefmn ocrfeemas i lkiianrod fps o llutthieefof enic,dts i ffsuet:h e
C02e missfioromtn hsUe K h avneom oreeffe ct thheatrnhe ed yoi nA ustralia,
anvdi vcee rTshaa.mt e antsh aantcy r edfiarbmleew ofrormk i tighaattsio o n
be brionatdelryn aSteicootnnhadmel,a . i dno wnsairdneeo sit m medibautt e
liaec entourmr oyr ient hfeut urien:t er-genesrtaictcoiemo einsna tplol ajyu;
howd ow er atthere i gahntidsn teoreffus ttusrge e neractoimopnastro oe udr
own?