Table Of Content.
Valery A. Menshikov Anatoly N. Perminov
l
Yuri M. Urlichich
Global Aerospace
Monitoring and Disaster
Management
SpringerWienNewYork
ValeryA.Menshikov AnatolyN.Perminov
A.A.MaksimovSpaceSystems JSC“RussianSpaceSystems”
ResearchInstitute AviamotornayaStr.53
M.K.TichonravovaStr.27 111250Moscow
141092YubileynyyCity Russia
Russia
[email protected]
YuriM.Urlichich
JSC“RussianSpaceSystems”
AviamotornayaStr.53
111250Moscow
Russia
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Preface
Thispublicationisdevotedtotheprospectsofusingaerospacemonitoringpotential
fornewapproachtodisastermanagementmatter:earlywarningaboutcataclasmic
natural events and man-made catastrophes. The International Global Monitoring
AerospaceSystem(IGMASS)isactivelypromotedontheinternationallevelwithin
recent 3 years initiative of Russian scientific and public organizations to create
a system for early warning of the world society about global threats, including
those of space origin. On base of the Project, implemented under the auspices of
the International Academy of Astronautics, there is the conception of so-called
disaster precursors, manifested as geosphere anomalies, identification with the
useofspecialequipmentofspace,airandgroundbase,andforecastingofgeologi-
calormeteorologicalcharactercatastrophicphenomenaonthisbase.Furthermore,
among the prospect IGMASS issues there are early warning about near-Earth
objects (meteor and asteroid threats), as well as dangerous situations in the near-
Earthspace,causedby“spacedebris”phenomenon.Finally,IGMASSwillbeable
toprovideasolution ofawiderange of humanitarian issues of mankind,such as:
protection and preservation of cultural values, eradication of illiteracy (distance
learning) and disease control (telemedicine), providing conditions for gradual
formationofglobalcommon“informationsecurityfield”.
Theauthorsanalyzethenatureofdisastersandman-madeemergencies,oppor-
tunities for their effective forecasting with the use of aerospace monitoring, the
key trends of the up-to-date space technologies, which will be able to reduce
global risks and threats to the world society, ensuring sustainable development of
civilization.
The book is intended to introduce the IGMASS concept to the wider scientific
community and popularize it as an advanced Russian initiative to integrate the
effortsoftheinternationalcommunityonthepeacefulusingofouterspaceforthe
benefitandprosperityofallpeopleontheGlobe.
ValeryA.Menshikov
AnatolyN.Perminov
YuriM.Urlichich
v
.
Contents
1 NaturalCalamitiesandTheirForecasting ............................... 1
1.1 NaturalCalamitiesofGeologicalOrigin ............................... 4
1.1.1 Earthquakes ....................................................... 4
1.1.2 VolcanicEruptions ............................................... 7
1.1.3 Tsunami ......................................................... 12
1.2 MeteorologicalNaturalCalamities .................................... 17
1.2.1 Cyclones,Tornados,Squalls,Typhoons,andHurricanes ...... 17
1.2.2 Floods ........................................................... 19
1.2.3 DroughtsandFires .............................................. 21
1.3 TheAftermathofaNaturalCalamity ................................. 24
1.3.1 KilledandInjured .............................................. 25
1.3.2 EconomicDamage .............................................. 29
1.4 AerospacePredictionsofGeologicalNaturalCalamities ............. 31
1.4.1 EarthquakePrecursorsandTheirDetection .................... 35
1.4.2 VolcanicEruptionPrecursorsandTheirDetection ............ 55
1.4.3 DetectingGeologicalCalamityPrecursorsfromSpace ........ 61
1.4.4 ProblemsinPracticalPredictionofSeismic
ActivityandTheirSolutions ................................... 66
References ................................................................. 74
FurtherReading ............................................................ 81
2 TechnogenicEmergencies:CanTheyBeReliablyPredicted? ........ 83
2.1 TechnogenicDisastersintheModernWorld:Classification,
Facts,Consequences,andTendencies ................................. 84
2.2 Man-MadeDisastersandEmergenciesinRussia:
CausesandConsequences ............................................. 92
2.3 HarbingersofTechnogenicEmergencies
andWaystoForecastThem .......................................... 105
2.4 Geodynamics,SeismicLocation,andProspectsforForecasting
TechnogenicEmergencies ............................................ 109
vii
viii Contents
2.5 ForecastingofMan-MadeDisastersandtheRole
ofSpaceSystemsinitsPracticalImplementation ................... 119
References ................................................................ 124
FurtherReading ........................................................... 125
3 GlobalRisksandThreatstoHumanityfromOuterSpace:
ProspectsofWarningandParrying .................................... 127
3.1 TheRiskandThreatfromAsteroidsandComets:AreThey
ReallyDangerous? .................................................... 128
3.1.1 HistoricalBackgroundoftheHazardsofNear-Earth
Objects:SomeEstimatesofCollisionRisks .................. 136
3.1.2 NEODetection,ImpactPredictions,and
Early-WarningEfforts ......................................... 140
3.2 ContemporaryNEOCollisionAvoidanceStrategies ................ 157
3.2.1 CommonApproachestoParryingtheThreatofNEOs ....... 157
3.2.2 PlanetaryDefenseConcept .................................... 176
3.2.3 SomePrinciplesConcerningtheAdaptationofSpace
RocketryFacilitiesforAsteroidandCometThreat
MitigationMissions(RussianApproach) ..................... 182
3.3 OtherGlobalRisksandThreatsinSpaceandfromOuterSpace .... 190
3.3.1 RisksandThreatsfromSolarActivity
andSolarCycleVariations .................................... 190
3.3.2 RisksandThreatsfromSpaceJunk(Debris) ................. 199
3.3.3 RisksandThreatstoHumanityConnected
withAbnormalEvents ......................................... 214
References ................................................................ 225
FurtherReading ........................................................... 232
4 TheConceptionoftheInternationalGlobalMonitoring
AerospaceSystem(IGMASS) ........................................... 233
4.1 AnalysisoftheDevelopmentoftheEmergency
MonitoringSpaceFacilities .......................................... 237
4.2 PurposeoftheCreationofIGMASSandItsMissions ............... 241
4.3 TheMainPrinciplesoftheCreationofIGMASS
andGeneralRequirementsfortheSystem ........................... 243
4.4 StructureandFormationofIGMASS ................................ 245
4.5 OrganizationalandTechnicalBackgroundofIGMASS
ProjectImplementation ............................................... 250
4.6 StagesofIGMASSProjectRealization .............................. 253
4.7 SomeCostEstimatesofIGMASSProjectImplementation .......... 259
References ................................................................ 261
FurtherReading ........................................................... 261
Contents ix
5 SpaceExplorationandFormationofthe“InformationFieldofGlobal
Security”:ANewParadigmofSustainableDevelopment ............ 263
5.1 SpaceFacilitiesandtheFormationoftheInformationSociety
oftheTwenty-FirstCentury .......................................... 264
5.2 HumanitarianAspectsofIGMASSProjectImplementation ......... 273
5.2.1 DistanceLearningandDistributionofSpaceEducation ..... 273
5.2.2 TelemedicineandEmergencyMedicine ...................... 299
5.3 TheIGMASSProjectasaPotentialToolforEvolvingthe
“PlanetarySecurityInformationField” .............................. 305
References ................................................................ 311
Conclusion .................................................................... 313
Glossary ....................................................................... 325
Description:In this book, space systems are situated in the global processes of the 21st century’s information society and the role that space information systems could play in risk management is determined; methods of detecting and forecasting of both natural disasters and technogenic catastrophes and existi
