Germany, Afghanistan, and the Process of Decision Making in German

284 Pages·2011·1.04 MB·English

ABSTRACT

Title of Document: GERMANY, AFGHANISTAN, AND THE
PROCESS OF DECISION MAKING IN
GERMAN FOREIGN POLICY:
CONSTRUCTING A FRAMEWORK FOR
ANALYSIS

Karin L. Johnston, Doctor of Philosophy, 2011

Directed By: Professor George Quester, Department of
Government and Politics

Germany’s emerging role as a supplier of security by contributing troops to
out-of-area operations is a significant change in post-unification German foreign and
security policy, and yet few studies have sought to explain how the process of
decision making also has changed in order to accommodate the external and domestic
factors that shape policy preferences and outcomes. The dissertation addresses these
theoretical gaps in foreign policy analysis and in German foreign and security policy
studies by examining the decision-making process in the case of Afghanistan from
2001–2008, emphasizing the importance of institutional structures that enable and
constrain decision-makers and then gathering the empirical evidence to construct a
framework for analyzing German foreign policy decision making.
The dynamics of decision-making at the state level are examined by
hypothesizing about the role of the chancellor in the decision-making process—
whether there has been an expansion of chancellorial power relative to other actors—
and about the role of coalition politics and the relative influence of the junior
coalition partner in coalition governments. Results indicate that there are few signs
that federal chancellors dominate or otherwise control decision-making outcomes,
and that coalition politics remain a strong explanatory factor in the process that
shapes the parameters of policy choices.
The dissertation highlights the central role of the Bundestag, the German
parliament. The German armed forces are indeed “a parliamentary army,” and the
decision-making process in the Afghanistan case shows how operational parameters
can be affected by parliamentary involvement. The framework for analysis of German
foreign policy decision making outlines the formal aspects while emphasizing the
importance of the informal process of decision making that is characterized by
political bargaining and consensus building among major actors, particularly between
the government and the parliamentary party fractions. Thus any examination of
German out-of-area missions must take into account the co-determinative nature of
decision making between the executive and legislative actors in shaping German
foreign policy regarding its military engagements around the world.
GERMANY, AFGHANISTAN, AND THE PROCESS OF DECISION MAKING IN
GERMAN FOREIGN POLICY: CONSTRUCTING A FRAMEWORK FOR
ANALYSIS

By

Karin Lynn Johnston

Dissertation submitted to the Faculty of the Graduate School of the
University of Maryland, College Park, in partial fulfillment
of the requirements for the degree of
Doctor of Philosophy
2011

Advisory Committee:
Professor George Quester, Chair
Professor I. M. Destler
Professor Virginia Haufler
Professor Bartlomiej Kaminski
Professor Miranda Schreurs
© Copyright by
Karin Lynn Johnston
2011
Dedication

To Clay Ramsay and in memory of Edeltraud Tarsikes, née Tscharke.
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Acknowledgments

There are a great many people to whom I am indebted. In particular, I am
deeply grateful to those individuals who so kindly agreed to be interviewed and who
provided such invaluable information on the basis of anonymity. I am indebted to
them for sharing their insights and knowledge, particularly those in the Chancellery,
Foreign Office, Ministry of Defense, members of the Bundestag and their staff, and
officials of various parties and party foundations.
I am indebted to many other individuals who took time out of their busy
schedule to speak with me, in Washington D.C. and Berlin: Pia Bungarten, Director
of the Washington DC office of the Friedrich Ebert Stiftung; Helga Haftendorn,
Professor Emeritus, Freie Universität Berlin; Klaus Linsenmeier, Executive Director
Heinrich Böll Foundation North America; Hanns W. Maull, Professor, Universität
Trier; Ingo Peters, Professor, Freie Universität Berlin; Thomas Risse, Professor, Freie
Universität Berlin; Dr. Eberhard Sandschneider, Director, German Council on
Foreign Relations, Berlin; Benjamin Schreer, Deputy Director, Aspen Institute,
Berlin; Constanze Stelzenmüller, Director, German Marshall Fund, Berlin; Markus
Kaim, Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik, Berlin. In addition, I have benefited from
the intellectual stimulus and discussions with friends, former colleagues and others in
Washington D.C., including: Stephen Szabo, Cathleen Fisher, Jackson Janes, Daniel
Hamilton, Dieter Dettke, Gale Mattox, Bowman Miller, Stephan Wallace, and Lily
Gardner-Feldman.
The administrative process of finishing the dissertation was made
immeasurably easier by the staff in the Government and Politics Department at the
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University of Maryland and particularly Ann Marie Clark, whose patience and
guidance were particularly welcome. I am especially indebted to the members of my
committee, whose sage advice, encouragement, and generosity of spirit are deeply
appreciated.
Debts that can never be adequately repaid go to the friends and family who
wittingly or unwittingly have shared the dissertation experience, some of whom,
however, must be acknowledged: Inge and Lotar Martin, and Dagmar Pruin and
Björn Budick, whose deep generosity and friendship have sustained me over the
years—ich hab’ noch einen Koffer in Berlin, thanks to them; Ilonka Oszvald, who so
kindly agreed to give of her professional talents in editing the dissertation; Clare and
Baxter Hill; Ginny, Sam, and Maddy; and Fran Burwell, a friend in countless ways
who never fails to give good advice and Belgian chocolates as added incentive; and,
finally, to my family—especially my “local” family of Johnstons (Frank, Theresa,
and Isabelle) and Spanos (Steve and Tanya). I must also acknowledge my mother,
Edeltraud Tarsikes, who passed on her love of her home and of Berlin, the city she
grew up in; it is a bond that has not faltered. However, my deepest debt of all is to
Clay Ramsay, whose patience, humor, encouragement, and unending support and
steady supply of cups of coffee sustained me and kept me going. As with so many
other publications, this dissertation reflects the comments, advice, and assistance of
these and other individuals over the years, although any oversights and errors are my
responsibility alone.
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Table of Contents

Dedication ..................................................................................................................... ii
Acknowledgments........................................................................................................ iii
Table of Contents .......................................................................................................... v
List of Tables ............................................................................................................. viii
List of Figures .............................................................................................................. ix
Chapter 1: Introduction ................................................................................................. 1
Background ............................................................................................................... 1
Statement of the Problem .......................................................................................... 3
Research Question .................................................................................................... 7
Hypotheses .............................................................................................................. 10
Methodology ........................................................................................................... 12
Organization of the Dissertation ............................................................................. 13
Chapter 2: Early Experiences and Emerging Practices: German Out-Of-Area
Missions Prior to Afghanistan .................................................................................... 17
Introduction ............................................................................................................. 17
The Context for Change: Postwar German Foreign Policy (1945–1990) ............... 18
1969–1990: Limited Humanitarian Assistance ................................................... 21
Post-Unification German Foreign Policy (1990–) .................................................. 23
1990–1995: Bosnia and the Constitutionality Issue............................................ 23
1995–2000: The Kosovo War ............................................................................ 36
Summary ................................................................................................................. 43
Chapter 3: The Theoretical Debate: Analyzing German Foreign Policy .................... 45
Introduction ............................................................................................................. 45
Realism and Structural Explanations of German Foreign Policy ........................... 46
Constructivism and Cultural Explanations of German Foreign Policy .................. 48
Domestic Politics and Foreign Policy Analysis ...................................................... 59
Summary ................................................................................................................. 66
Chapter 4: Agency and Structure in German Foreign Policy: Executive Power and
Political Parties in the Decision-Making Process ....................................................... 68
Introduction ............................................................................................................. 68
Agency: Foreign Policy Actors ............................................................................... 69
Chancellor and Chancellor’s Office.................................................................... 71
Federal Ministries: Major Foreign Policy Actors ............................................... 80
German Bundestag .............................................................................................. 88
Judiciary .............................................................................................................. 90
Other Actors ........................................................................................................ 91
Hypothesis 1: Chancellor Dominance or Chancellor Constraint? .......................... 91
Presidentialization Thesis ................................................................................... 94
Structure: Political Parties and Coalition Politics ................................................... 97
Party System ....................................................................................................... 98
Parliamentary Parties ........................................................................................ 102
Hypothesis 2: Coalition Politics............................................................................ 107
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Summary ............................................................................................................... 112
Chapter 5: German Foreign Policy Decision Making: Constructing a Framework for
Analysis..................................................................................................................... 113
Introduction ........................................................................................................... 113
Foreign Policy and Decision-Making Models ...................................................... 113
Core Elements of Decision-Making Framework .................................................. 116
Framework for Analysis: German Foreign Policy Decision Making ................... 117
General Structure of German Decision-Making Framework ................................ 120
Formal Process .................................................................................................. 122
Informal Process ............................................................................................... 126
Summary ............................................................................................................... 130
Chapter 6: The Case of Afghanistan ........................................................................ 132
Introduction ........................................................................................................... 132
OEF Vote November 2001: Fighting Terrorism ................................................... 135
Macedonia Mission ........................................................................................... 139
Afghanistan Vote .............................................................................................. 141
ISAF Vote December 2001: Civil Reconstruction ............................................... 146
2002: Pressures to Expand Mission ...................................................................... 148
2003: Further Constraints ..................................................................................... 151
2004: Growing Skepticism ................................................................................... 158
2005: A New Coalition Government .................................................................... 160
2006: External Pressure Mounts ........................................................................... 165
2007: Political Battles ........................................................................................... 167
2008: Abandoning OEF ........................................................................................ 172
Vote Distribution 2001–2008 ............................................................................... 175
Summary ............................................................................................................... 180
Chapter 7: Findings and Discussion ......................................................................... 183
Introduction ........................................................................................................... 183
Hypothesis 1: Chancellorial Power ....................................................................... 186
Findings................................................................................................................. 186
Variable 1: Structural Changes ......................................................................... 188
Variable 2: Executive-Legislative Relations .................................................... 194
Discussion: Hypothesis 1 ...................................................................................... 198
Hypothesis 2: Coalition Politics........................................................................... 201
Findings................................................................................................................. 201
Discussion: Hypothesis 2 ...................................................................................... 205
Discussion: Constructing a Framework for Analysis ........................................... 209
Phase One: External Pressures and Executive Action ...................................... 211
Phase Two: Parliamentary Deliberation and Party Action ............................... 216
Summary ............................................................................................................... 223
Limitations of Study ............................................................................................. 224
Significance of Study ............................................................................................ 225
Chapter 8: Conclusion............................................................................................... 227
Future Research .................................................................................................... 233
Appendix A: ISAF and OEF-related Mandates 2001–2008 ..................................... 236
Appendix B: Chronology of Events in Afghanistan 2001–2008 .............................. 238
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Appendix C: German Primary Source Documents Cited ......................................... 243
Appendix D: Secondary Source Documents Cited ................................................... 248
Bibliography ............................................................................................................. 252

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