Geohazards: Natural and man-made

227 Pages·1992·21.627 MB·English

by  G. J. H. McCall (auth.), G. J. H. McCall, D. J. C. Laming, S. C. Scott (eds.)

Geohazards
ASSOCIATION OF GEOSCIENTISTS FOR INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT
AGID Report Series
THE GEOSCIENCES IN INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT
Other Titles in the Series
1. Geoscientists and the Third World: a Collective Critique of Existing Aid Programs, edited by A.R.
Berger and published as Paper 74-5e by the Geological Survey of Canada, 1975,32 pages.
2. Hidden Waters in Arid Lands: Report of a Workshop on Groundwater Research Needs in Arid and Semi
arid Zones, Paris, 1974, edited by L.A. Heindl and published by International Development
Research Centre, Ottawa, Canada (IDRC-057e), 1975, 19 pages.
3. New Directions in Mineral Development Policies: Report ofthe AGID Bagauda International
Workshop, Nigeria, edited by D.l.C. Laming and D.E. Ajakaiye, AGID, 1977,224 pages.
4. Preliminary Bibliography on Groundwater in Developing Countries, 1970 to 1976, edited by
D.A.V. Stow, 1. Skidmore and A.R. Berger, AGID, 1976,305 pages.
5. Geoscience Education in Developing Countries, edited by P.G. Cooray, AGID, 1977, 56 pages.
6. Mineral Resource Management in Developing Countries: State Participation, Private Enterprise, or
Both? Proceedings of an International Symposium held at Sydney, Australia, 1976, edited by
M.E. Woakes, 1978,28 pages.
7. Hidden Wealth: Mineral Exploration Techniques in Tropical Forest Areas. Proceedings of an
international symposium held in Caracas, Venezuela, 1977, edited by D.l.C. Laming and A.
Gibbs, 1977,221 pages.
8. Strategies for Small-Scale Mining and Mineral Industries: Report of a regional workshop held at
Mombasa, Kenya, 1980, edited by 1.M. Neilson, 1980,200 pages.
9. Geochemistry in Zambia: Report ofthe AGID Geochemical Workshop held in Zambia, with case histories,
1977, edited by D.C. Turner, 1977, 94 pages.
10. AGID Guide to Mineral Resources Development, edited by M.E. Woakes and 1.S. Carman,
1983,504 pages.
11. Geosciences for Development-the Australian Role: Proceedings of the AGID-ILP Workshop
held at Sydney, Australia, 1984: edited by M.B. Katz and E.l. Langevad, 1985, 374 pages.
12. Landplan II: Role of Geology in Planning and Development of Urban Centres in Southeast Asia.
Proceedings of the Symposium held at Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, 1984: edited by B.K. Tan and
1.L. Rau, 1986,92 pages.
13. Environmental Geology and Natural Hazards ofthe Andean Region, edited by M. Hermelin (in
press).
14. Geosciences in Development. Proceedings of an International Conference on the Application of
the Geosciences in Developing Countries, 1988, edited by D.A.V. Stow and D.l.C. Laming,
AGID/Balkema Publishers, 1980,322 pages.
Geohazards
Natural and man-made
Edited by
G.J.H. McCall
Consultant and Fellow, Liverpool University
D.J.C. Laming
Consultant, Herrington Geoscience, Exeter
and
s.C. Scott
Co-ordinator, Geological Hazards Assessment, Mitigation and Information Unit,
Polytechnic South West, Plymouth.
CHAPMAN &. HALL
London . New York . Tokyo· Melbourne· Madras
Published by Chapman & Hall, 2-6 Boundary Row, London SEt 8HN
Chapman & Hall, 2-6 Boundary Row, London SE18HN, UK
Chapman & Hall, 29 West 35th Street, New York NY10001, USA
Chapman & Hall Japan, Thomson Publishing Japan, Hirakawacho Nemoto
Building, 6F, 1-7-11 Hirakawa-cho, Chiyoda-ku, Tokyo 102, Japan
Chapman & Hall Australia, Thomas Nelson Australia, 102 Dodds Street,
South Melbourne, Victoria 3205, Australia
Chapman & Hall India, R. Seshadri, 32 Second Main Road, CIT East,
Madras 600 035, India
First edition 1992
© 1992 G.J.H. McCall, D.J.C. Laming and S.C. Scott
Typeset by Herrington Geoscience and Exe Valley Dataset Ltd
ISBN 0 412 43920 4 (HB) 0412439301 (PB)
Apart from any fair dealing for the purposes of research or private study, or
criticism or review, as permitted under the UK Copyright Designs and
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appropriate Reproduction Rights Organization outside the UK. Enquiries
concerning reproduction outside the terms stated here should be sent to the
publishers at the London address printed on this page.
The publisher makes no representation, express or implied, with regard to
the accuracy of the information contained in this book and cannot accept
any legal responsibility or liability for any errors or omissions that may be
made.
A catalogue record for this book is available from the British Library
Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication data available
Contents
Contributors Vll
Preface ix
1. Natural and man-made hazards: their increasing importance in the end-20th
century world 1
G.J.H. McCall
PART ONE Volcanic Hazards 5
2. Volcano risk mitigation through training 7
f.L. Anderson and R. W. Decker
3. Volunteer Observers Program: a tool for monitoring volcanic and seismic
events in the Philippines 13
Perla 1. Delos Reyes
4. Monitoring and warning of volcanic eruptions by remote sensing 25
D.A. Rothery
5. Volcanic hazards in Colombia and Indonesia: lahars and related phenomena 33
H. Th. Verstappen
6. The 1985 Nevado del Ruiz eruption: scientific, social and governmental
response and interaction before the event 43
M.L. Hall
7. Lahars of Cotopaxi Volcano, Ecuador: hazard and risk evaluation 53
Patricia A. Mothes
8. Seismic monitoring of Lake Nyos, Cameroon, following the gas release disaster
of August, 1986 65
Alice B. Walker, D. W. Redmayne and C. W.A. Browitt
PART TWO Earthquake Hazards 81
9. Long-term seismic hazard in the Eastern Mediterranean region 83
N.N. Ambraseys
10. The ROA Earthquake Hazard Atlas project: recent work from the Middle East 93
M.R. Degg
11. Some implications of the 1985 Mexican earthquake for hazard assessment 105
M.R. Degg
PART THREE Landslide Hazards 115
12. Lanslide hazard assessment in the context of development 117
D.K.C. fones
13. The identification and mitigation of glacier-related hazards: examples from the
Cordillera Blanca, Peru 143
f. M. Reynolds
PART FOUR The 'Quiet' Hazards 159
14. Sea-level changes in China - past and future: their impact and countermeasures 161
Wang Sijing and Zhao Xitao
15. Rising groundwater: a problem of development in some urban areas of the
Middle East 171
D.l. George
16. Factors affecting losses of soil and agricultural land in tropical countries 183
S. Nortcliff and P.l. Gregory
17. Reduction of biodiversity - the ultimate disaster? 191
W.S. Fyfe
PART FIVE What Can Be Done? 195
18. Policy in response to geohazards: lessons from the developed world? 197
D. Brook
19. Some perspectives on geological hazards 209
R.l. Blong
20. The International Decade for Natural Disaster Reduction and the Geohazards
Unit at Polytechnic South West, Plymouth, UK 217
S.c. Scott
Subject index 223
Place name index 226
Contributors
N.N. Ambraseys Department of Civil Engineering, Imperial College, London, UK.
J.L. Anderson Center for the Study of Active Volcanoes, University of Hawaii at Hilo,
Hilo, Hawaii.
R.J. Blong School of Earth Sciences, Macquarie University, Australia.
D. Brook Land Stability Branch, Minerals and Land Reclamation Division, Department
of the Environment, London, UK.
C. W.A. Browitt British Geological Survey, Edinburgh, Scotland, UK.
R. W. Decker Center for the Study of Activ~ Volcanoes, University of Hawaii at Hilo,
Hilo, Hawaii.
M.R. Degg Department of Geography, Chester College, Chester, UK.
Perla J. Delos Reyes Department of Science and Technology, Philippine Institute of
Volcanology and Seismology, Hizon Building, Quezon City, The Philippines.
W.S. Fyfe Faculty of Science, University of Western Ontario, London, Canada.
D.J. George Dames & Moore International, Booth House, Church Street, Twickenham,
UK.
P.J. Gregory Department of Soil Science, University of Reading, Reading, UK.
M.L. Hall Instituto Geofisico, Escuela Politecnica Nacional, Quito, Ecuador.
D.K.C. Jones Department of Geography, London School of Economics, London, UK.
G.J.H. McCall Consultant and Fellow of Liverpool University, Liverpool, UK.
Patricia A. Mothes Instituto Geofisico, Escuela Politecnica Nacional, Quito, Ecuador.
S. Nortcliff Department of Soil Science, University of Reading, Reading, UK.
D. W. Redmayne British Geological Survey, Edinburgh, Scotland, UK.
J.M. Reynolds Department of Geological Sciences, Polytechnic South West, Plymouth,
UK.
S. C. Scott Geological Hazards Assessment, Mitigation and Information Unit, Depart-
ment of Geological Sciences, Polytechnic South West, Plymouth, UK.
D.A. V. Stow Department of Geology, The University, Southampton, UK.
Wang Sijing Institute of Geology, Academia Sinica, Beijing, China.
H. Th. Verstappen International Institute for Aerospace Survey and Earth Sciences (lTC),
Enschede, The Netherlands.
Alice B. Walker British Geological Survey, Edinburgh, Scotland, UK.
Zhao Xitao Institute of Geology, Academia Sinica, Beijing, China.
Acknowledgements
The editors would like to express their sincere thanks to all who helped in the production of
this book, especially Kit Patrick of Herrington Geoscience, Mick Lear of M.J.L. Graphics,
and all the reviewers of the individual contributions.
Preface
Dorrik A. V. Stow
Editor in Chief, Association of Geoscientists for International Development ( AGID)
AGIO is particularly pleased to see published this latest hurricanes, floods-that are wreaking havoc, destroying
report in its Geosciences in International Development livelihood and lives in some corner of the globe.
Series, as a significant contribution to the onset of the UN As geoscientists there are perhaps three concerns that
Decade of National Disaster Reduction, and as a mark of should be uppermost in our minds as we join an inter
AGIO's growing concern over the potential and actual national effort to combat the adverse effects of natural
effects of geohazards throughout the developing world. hazards. The first must be to improve our scientific
The problem of geohazards is increasing, not because understanding of the nature and causes of such hazards
the rate of earth processes is accelerating, nor because the and to work towards more reliable prediction of their
voice of the media appears to be paying more and more occurrence and magnitude.
attention to natural drama and disaster, but primarily The second is to communicate this knowledge in an
because the burgeoning world population requires the effective and timely manner to politicians, planners and
cultivation of land more prone to hazard. More people decision makers who are involved in the instigation of
and property are thus exposed to the risk of catastrophic policies and programmes to mitigate against disaster,
disaster than ever before, and the death toll inevitably as well as in the issuing of public warnings and the
nses. implementation of evacuation procedures. If the existing
As we go to press, reports of major volcanic eruptions communication gap between scientists and politicians is
in the Philippines and in SW Japan are flashing across allowed to persist then the application of the results of
our television screens. One persistent problem, perceived geohazards research by many thousands of scientists the
by several authors in this volume, is the question of world over will be severely impaired.
warning time: if the authorities issue an alarm and The third concern and another important theme in the
evacuate people too early, the credibility of the warning papers in this volume is involvement of local people. This
is lost; fearful of looting or other damage, they return to is vital for effective disaster mitigation, whether in a
protect their homes-who would not do the same? But, developing or a developed country; whether arranging
it was exactly this scenario that led to the awful disaster for a tree nursery to be established in Ethiopia or an
of Armero in Colombia where 25,000 people perished in earthquake-resistant building code in Algeria, a solution
a sea of mud; many of those lives could have been saved imposed from above has less chance of being effective
if proper warning procedures had been adopted. than one that takes hold at the level of ordinary people.
Also as we go to press, the terrible results of the Programmes of public education about natural hazards,
cyclone in Bangladesh are being revealed. The people participation in disaster preparedness and early warning
and the Government of that country are only too well schemes, and learning to live as safely as possible in a
aware of the ever-present threat from severe climatic disaster-prone region, are all areas where good communi
conditions and river flooding. But, a poor country with cation between scientists and the public is essential.
over 100 million people has many priorities demanding AGIO is a network of geoscientists throughout the
attention and finance, and it is wrong to criticise the world concerned with the application of the geosciences
inadequate level of preparedness for a disaster that has a to grassroots development. AGIO has taken a particular
10 or 20 year return period; but it is right to ask whether interest in Natural Hazards in recent years; the appli
climatic change is exacerbating the cyclonic effects, and cation of geoscientific knowledge in this field can signifi
that some moral and financial support should be given cantly improve the quality of life in many parts of the
by the developed world towards helping countries such developing world. The collection of papers in this volume
as Bangladesh to tackle the problems of disasters. illustrate clearly this role and, we hope, will provide both
Almost certainly as this volume is read, there will data and ideas from which further advances can be made.
be other disasters-earthquakes, volcanoes, landslides, Dorrik A. V. Stow