GEnERAtion AdEQUACY REPoRt

136 Pages·2011·9.99 MB·English

2011 Edition
GEnERAtion
AdEQUACY REPoRt
on the electricity supply – demand
balance in France
RTE EDF Transport SA shall not be liable for damages of any nature, direct or indirect, arising from the use of data and information contained in this document, including any
operational, financial or commercial losses.
GEnERAtion
AdEQUACY REPoRt
on the electricity supply-demand
balance in France
2011 Edition
CONTENTS
EXECUtiVE SUMMARY ...................................................................................................................................... 6
1 intRodUCtion ................................................................................................................................................ 15
1.1 RegulatoRy fRamewoRk of the geneRation adequacy RepoRt ..................................................................................16
1.2 objective and method ..........................................................................................................................................16
1.2.1 Objective ........................................................................................................................................................16
1.2.2 Limitations .....................................................................................................................................................16
1.2.3 Method .........................................................................................................................................................17
1.2.4 New features ...................................................................................................................................................17
1.3 disclaimeR ...........................................................................................................................................................18
1.3.1 Validity of hypotheses .......................................................................................................................................18
1.3.2 Confidentiality ................................................................................................................................................18
2 EnERGY dEMAnd ............................................................................................................................................ 19
2.1 past tRends ........................................................................................................................................................ 20
2.1.1 Underlying trend: Demand growth slowing ............................................................................................................20
2.1.2 Impact of the 2008 crisis and signs of recovery .......................................................................................................22
2.2 foRecast context ................................................................................................................................................25
2.2.1 Changes in energy policy since the 2009 Generation Adequacy Report ..............................................................................25
2.2.2 The post-crisis macroeconomic situation ..............................................................................................................27
2.3 constRucting scenaRios .....................................................................................................................................28
2.3.1 Drivers of demand ...........................................................................................................................................28
2.3.2 Scenarios used ...............................................................................................................................................30
2.3.3 Main assumptions used in “Baseline” scenario ........................................................................................................30
2.3.4 Other scenarios ..............................................................................................................................................31
2.4 oveRall eneRgy demand foRecasts .......................................................................................................................32
2.4.1 Forecasts for individual sectors ...........................................................................................................................32
2.4.2 Overall forecasts for France ...............................................................................................................................35
2.5 impact of demand-side management .....................................................................................................................35
2.6 compaRison with 2009 geneRation adequacy RepoRt ..............................................................................................37
2.6.1 Industrial demand forecasts lowered ...................................................................................................................37
2.6.2 Development of new end-uses in the tertiary sector .................................................................................................38
2.6.3 Forecasts for residential sector shaded down slightly ...............................................................................................38
2.6.4 Estimates for transport sector carried over from 2009 Generation Adequacy Report .......................................................38
2.6.5 Summary .......................................................................................................................................................38
2.7 compaRison of geneRation adequacy RepoRt with alteRnative scenaRios ...............................................................39
2.7.1 Approaches ....................................................................................................................................................39
2.7.2 Data consistency issues ....................................................................................................................................39
2.7.3 Comparison example .......................................................................................................................................40
2.8 compaRison with otheR euRopean countRies ........................................................................................................41
3 PowER dEMAnd foRECAStS .......................................................................................................................... 43
3.1 vaRiations in electRicity demand oveR time ...........................................................................................................44
3.1.1 Structural variations .........................................................................................................................................44
3.1.2 Sensitivity to outdoor temperatures .....................................................................................................................45
3.2 demand Response ................................................................................................................................................47
3.2.1 Tariff options .................................................................................................................................................48
3.2.2 Balancing Mechanism and distributed load shedding ...............................................................................................49
3.2.3 Outlook ........................................................................................................................................................50
3.3 evolution of the load cuRve ...............................................................................................................................50
3.3.1 Ban on incandescent lighting, already begun ..........................................................................................................51
3.3.2 Heating and heat pumps ...................................................................................................................................52
3.3.3 Electric vehicle charging ....................................................................................................................................52
3.3.4 Sanitary hot water production ............................................................................................................................53
3.3.5 Trends in total load curve ..................................................................................................................................54
3.4 peak loads ..........................................................................................................................................................55
3.4.1 Historical trends ..............................................................................................................................................55
3.4.2 Peak load forecasts ..........................................................................................................................................56
4 GEnERAtion foRECAStS ................................................................................................................................ 59
4.1 oveRview of existing geneRation facilities ............................................................................................................60
4.2 nucleaR theRmal geneRation ..............................................................................................................................60
4.2.1 Existing fleet and planned developments  ..............................................................................................................60
4.2.2 Operating lifespan of plants ...............................................................................................................................61
4
geneRation adequacy RepoRt on the electRicity supply-demand balance in fRance
2011 Edition
4.3 laRge fossil-fiRed geneRation ..............................................................................................................................62
4.3.1 The existing fleet..............................................................................................................................................62
4.3.2 Plant operation ..............................................................................................................................................62
4.3.3 Environmental regulations ................................................................................................................................64
4.3.4 The future of existing units ................................................................................................................................65
4.3.5 New generation development projects ..................................................................................................................66
4.4 embedded theRmal geneRation ............................................................................................................................67
4.4.1 Overview .......................................................................................................................................................67
4.4.2 Combined heat and power (CHP) installations .......................................................................................................67
4.4.3 RES facilities .................................................................................................................................................68
4.5 hydRoelectRic geneRation ...................................................................................................................................68
4.5.1 The existing fleet  .............................................................................................................................................68
4.5.2 The regulatory context ......................................................................................................................................69
4.5.3 Outlook .........................................................................................................................................................69
4.6 wind geneRation ..................................................................................................................................................70
4.6.1 The existing fleet .............................................................................................................................................70
4.6.2 Context and development outlook .......................................................................................................................70
4.7 photovoltaic geneRation ....................................................................................................................................72
4.7.1 The existing fleet ..............................................................................................................................................72
4.7.2 Context and development outlook .......................................................................................................................72
4.8 “baseline” geneRation scenaRio foR the medium teRm ............................................................................................73
5 MEdiUM-tERM EVolUtion of thE SUPPlY-dEMAnd bAlAnCE .................................................................... 75
5.1 objective and method ..........................................................................................................................................76
5.1.1 A probabilistic approach ....................................................................................................................................76
5.1.2 Method and shortfall risk assessment criteria .........................................................................................................76
5.2 “baseline” supply-demand scenaRio ......................................................................................................................78
5.2.1 Evaluation of shortfall risk .................................................................................................................................79
5.2.2 Energy balances ............................................................................................................................................. 80
5.3 supply and demand vaRiants ................................................................................................................................82
5.3.1 Sensitivity to stronger demand growth ..................................................................................................................82
5.3.2 Sensitivity to weaker demand growth ...................................................................................................................82
5.3.3 Sensitivity to lower supply .................................................................................................................................83
5.4 analysis of shoRtfall with zeRo exchange balance in peak peRiods ........................................................................84
6 MEdiUM-tERM REGionAl SECtionS ............................................................................................................... 85
6.1 the pRovence - alps - côte d’azuR Region (paca) ......................................................................................................87
6.1.1 Electricity demand in the PACA region today ..........................................................................................................87
6.1.2 Electricity generation in the PACA region today ..................................................................................................... 88
6.1.3 Network prior to 2010: significant risk exposure......................................................................................................89
6.1.4 2010: First phase of work on the grid to reduce the risk of outages ...............................................................................90
6.1.5 2015: the safety net ..........................................................................................................................................91
6.1.6 Close cooperation with regional players ................................................................................................................92
6.1.7 Outlook for Eastern PACA through 2030 ...............................................................................................................92
6.1.8 Sensitivity to cold weather .................................................................................................................................94
6.1.9 Conclusion .....................................................................................................................................................94
6.2 bRittany ..............................................................................................................................................................95
Foreword ...............................................................................................................................................................95
6.2.1 Demand ........................................................................................................................................................95
6.2.2 Generation .....................................................................................................................................................97
6.2.3 The current power transmission system and security of supply ...................................................................................99
6.2.4 Safety net for Brittany .....................................................................................................................................101
6.2.5 Conclusion ...................................................................................................................................................102
7 lonG-tERM SUPPlY-dEMAnd bAlAnCE oUtlook .......................................................................................103
7.1 puRpose of long-teRm analyses ..........................................................................................................................104
7.2 method of long-teRm analyses...........................................................................................................................104
7.3 “baseline” outlook – long-teRm outlook ...........................................................................................................105
7.4 vaRiants – sensitivity to supply and demand .......................................................................................................108
7.4.1 Variants considered ........................................................................................................................................108
7.4.2 Results ........................................................................................................................................................109
7.5 the need to adapt the netwoRk oveR the long teRm ............................................................................................114
APPEndiX ......................................................................................................................................................115
a1 analysis of eneRgy demand by sectoR and effects of eneRgy efficiency measuRes ..................................................116
a2 supply-demand balance simulation methodology ...............................................................................................132
5
ExECuTivE Summary
executive summaRy
Working under the aegis of public authorities, RTE periodically prepares and
makes public a multi-annual forecast of the electricity supply-demand balance
in France, as required by law.
The purpose of this report is to evaluate the ability of the French power
system, in interaction with neighbouring systems, to properly satisfy demand,
based on the likeliest scenarios for trends in demand, demand response and
generation.
StRUCtURAl And EConoMiC ASPECtS
TWh
of thE EnERGY ContEXt
190
1810. Energy demand growth remains 0.6% out to 2030, which corresponds to 3.2 TWh a year.
moderate This means that demand would reach 523 TWh in 2020
170 and 554 TWh in 2030.
Based on trends observed in recent years and taking into
16a0ccount the eff ects of the economic crisis that began The trends implied by the “Baseline” scenario are shown
late in 2008, notably on the industrial sector, the “Base- in the chart below, along with contrasting scenarios also
150
line” scenario calls for average annual demand growth of considered in the Generation adequacy report.
140
130 Annual demand in france
TWh
120
2005 620 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
600
“High” demand scenario
580 “Baseline” scenario
560 “Stronger dSm” scenario
540 “Low” demand scenario
adjusted historical demand
520
500
480
460
440
420
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
6
geneRation adequacy RepoRt on the electRicity supply-demand balance in fRance
2011 Edition
45,0 %
40,0 %
35,0 %
An analysis of trends by sector shows that demand will be strongest in France’s residential and tertiary sectors.
30,0 %
25,0 %
trends in demand by sector
20,0 %
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
35 % industry
Tertiary
residential
30 %
25 %
20 %
2001 2002 2003 2004TWh 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
190
Industrial demand bottomed out in the fi rst half of 2009, of 0.8% through 2015 and then by 0.3%. The decline in
with a decline of 14 TWh forT tWhhe year. Taking into accou18n0t average annual growth post 2015 refl ects the increasing
the growth drivers of the sho1r6t0 and medium terms, as well impact of energy effi ciency measures, notably on motors
asT tWrhends in the various segments of the industrial sec1t7o0r, and industrial processes, as well as the emergence of
dem160and is expected to grow15 0at an average annual rate innovative technologies.
160
150 140
150
Annual industrial demand
140 130
140
TWh
130 140 120
130
135
120 110
130 120
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
110 125 100
120 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
100
115
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
110
“High” demand scenario “Stronger dSm” scenario adjusted historical
demand
105 “Baseline” scenario “Low” demand scenario
100
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Residential demand is seen continuing to rise in spite of slow from 2015 due to stricter energy regulations for
the crisis, insofar as the latter will not aff ect the main dri- buildings and equipment, this despite the development
vers of growth, i.e. demographics and the expanding stock of end-uses such as electric cooking, multimedia devices
of electric household appliances. Growth is expected to and electric heating with heat pumps. It is assumed that
7
ExECuTivE Summary
average annual growth will be 1.3% through 2015 and as energy effi ciency on lighting and equipment. Average
then 0.3% thereafter. annual growth is kept at 1.3% through 2015 and then
slows to 0.6% thereafter.
demand in the tertiary sector continues to rise on the
back of new data centres and communication techno- 2. Peak demand continues to increase
logies. Similarly to the residential sector, growth in the at a rapid pace
tertiary sector is seen slowing from 2015, due to stron-
ger insulation and building renovation measures, as well Trends in peak demand are shaped by the development
of seasonal and temperature-sensitive end-uses. It is esti-
mated that a 1°C drop in outdoor temperatures in winter
daily demand – temperature
can drive demand up by 2,300 MW at certain times of the
GWh/d 2200 day. The evolution of this temperature gradient is dictated
chiefl y by the development of electric heating.
2000
1800
A drop in demand in heavy industry, where the demand
1600 profi le is steady, combined with the increase in residential
1400 demand, tends to steepen the demand curve a bit more.
1200
Peak load forecasts for one-in-ten-year cold conditions
1000
-5 0 5 10 15 20 25°C (excluding demand response) are shown below.
2013 2015 2020 2030
Gw
Peak load with reference temperatures 86.2 87.9 90.8 95.9
“one-in-ten” peak 101.3 103.6 107.3 113.2
Closer analysis of winter peak periods shows that in addi- charging, similar to those that exist today for water heaters,
tion to magnitude, the duration of these peaks must be or with smart boxes that allow users to time battery char-
taken into account. For instance, of the 200 hours during ging based on power system loads and their own needs.
which demand was highest in the winter of 2010/2011, along the same lines, the smart grid demonstration pro-
just 25% corresponded to the evening peak period jects under way, in which RTE is playing an active role, must
between 6pm and 8pm. take into account the need to ease peak demand.
this rise in peak demand makes it even more impor- 3. Renewable energies still gathering
tant to encourage demand management initiatives, momentum
of which the capacity obligation included in the nome
act will be one. this mechanism aims to make sup- At 1 January 2011, cumulative wind power capacity in
pliers more accountable by assuring that they have continental France was close to 5.8 GW, and output
the generation or load-shifting capacity to satisfy their reached 9.7 TWh in 2010. Over the medium term, wind
customers’ demand. capacity is seen continuing to expand by 1 GW a year,
lifting the total installed base to 8 GW in 2013 and then
at the same time, eff orts must be made to ensure that 11 GW in 2016. To support the development of off shore
new end-uses do not drive peak demand higher. For wind farms along the French coast, a fi rst call for tenders
example, the development of electric vehicles (EV) and was launched in the summer of 2011, for 3 GW. Winning
plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEv) must go hand-in- bids should be selected in April 2012, with the new capa-
hand with adapted tariff signals that encourage off -peak city coming on stream by 2016 at the earliest.
8
MW MW
50 000 50 000 geneRation adequacy RepoRt on the electRicity supply-demand balance in fRance
2011 Edition
40 000 40 000
30 000 30 000
20 000 20 000
10 000 10 000
wind power capacity scenarios Photovoltaic capacity scenarios
0 0
2010 MW2015 2020 2025 2030 2010 MW2015 2020 2025 2030
50 000 30 000
“Baseline”: Cumulative capacity “Baseline”: Cumulative capacity
25 000
40 000 “High RES”: Cumulative capacity “High RES”: Cumulative capacity
20 000
30 000
15 000
20 000
10 000
10 000
5 000
0 0
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
The “High RES” scenario factors in even faster growth in other countries can be leveraged to meet a portion of
wind power capacity from 2012, with target capacity of domestic demand through imports. However, if imports
25 GW being met in 2020. are to be relied on to avoid a shortfall situation in France,
two conditions must be met:
Photovoltaic power capacity also continues to expand. • First, generation capacity in other countries must be
At end-2010, connections represented 800 MW. The available when needs arise in France
new mechanism introduced in March 2011 to support • Second, there must be suffi cient network capacity to
the technology should result in the addition of 500 MW a carry the quantity of power required.
year, taking installed capacity to 3 GW in 2013 and 4 GW
in 2015. Bearing this in mind, the announcements made recently
by the German government must be considered from
The contribution from hydroelectricity, the leading rene- two angles:
wable energy source, is not seen increasing signi fi cantly • a sudden drop in available generation capacity in Ger-
between now and 2016. many, and consequently a decline in potential imports
from that country, must be counterbalanced during
4. Changes in Germany’s nuclear peak demand periods by imports from other neighbou-
power capacity will affect the structure ring countries
of electricity fl ows between Germany,  • in addition to upsetting the supply-demand balance,
Switzerland and Eastern France, and this change in electricity fl ows over Germany’s domestic
must therefore be factored into the and interconnected network gives rise to congestion.
analysis of security of supply in France
The fact is that for a given power system, generation
simulations used in the 2011 generation adequacy sources must be evenly spread out to ensure compatibility
Report take into account potential exchanges (imports with the structure of the network, and thus with the energy
and exports) with neighbouring systems in order to that can be safely carried over the network. If a neighbou-
make the assessment of the future operation of the ring country has to manage very signifi cant fl ows over long
power system realistic. distances, potentially creating network congestion, then
the French network must also be expanded to ensure that
Insofar as the French power system is extensively inter- cross-border transmission capacity is adequate, without
connected to that of the rest of Europe, it is assumed prejudice to new transmission infrastructure built by
that opportunities aff orded by generation capacity in France’s other European neighbours.
9
ExECuTivE Summary
Average annual demand growth between 2011 and 2020, source: EntSo-E
>2,7%
≥1,3% (ENTSO-E average) ≤2,7%
<1,3%
5. The 2011 Generation Adequacy There were eight combined-cycle gas turbine (CCGT)
Report looks beyond 2015 and plants connected to the network as of 1 January 2011,
the decommissioning of the most and over the medium term, only fi ve more, with cumu-
polluting thermal units. lative capacity of 2.2 GW, are planned. They should
come on stream between now and 2014. A call for ten-
2015 is the deadline set by the EU directives on “Large ders launched on 25 June 2011 calls for a sixth CCGT
Combustion Plants” (LCP) and “industrial Emissions” plant to be built in Brittany to enhance security of supply
(iEd). Based on announcements made by generators, in that region, where demand largely exceeds supply.
3.6 GW of coal-fired capacity will be decommissioned
by end-2015 and 4.6 GW of oil-fi red capacity may no
longer be available after that year.
10