Table Of ContentGAME THEORY, EXPERIENCE, RATIONALITY
FOUNDA TIONS OF SOCIAL SCIENCES, ECONOMICS AND ETHICS
IN HONOR OF JOHN C. HARSANYI
VIENNA CIRCLE INSTITUTE YEARBOOK [1997]
5
VIENNA CIRCLE INSTITUTE YEARBOOK [1997]
5
Institut 'Wiener Kreis'
SOCIETY FOR THE ADVANCEMENT OF THE SCIENTIFIC WORLD
CONCEPTION
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The titles published in this series are listed at the end oft his volume.
GAME THEORY, EXPERIENCE,
RATIONALITY
FOUNDATIONS OF SOCIAL SCIENCES,
ECONOMICS AND ETHICS
In Honor ofJ ohn C. Harsanyi
Edited by
WERNER LEINFELLNER
University ofN ebraska and University ofGraz
and
ECKEHART KOHLER
Institute Vienna Circle. Vienna and
University of Vienna
SPRINGER-SClENCE+BUSINESS MEDIA, B.V.
A C.I.P. Catalogue record for this book is available from the Library of Congress.
ISBN 978-90-481-4992-6 ISBN 978-94-017-1654-3 (eBook)
DOI 10.1007/978-94-017-1654-3
Series ISSN 0929-6328
Gedruckt mit Forderung des Osterreichischen Bundesministeriums flir
Wissenschaft, Verkehr und Kunst
Austria and Bank Austria
02-0799-200 ts
Printed on acid-free paper
All Rights Reserved
©
1998 Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht
Originally published by Kluwer Academic Publishers in 1998
No part of the material protected by this copyright notice may be reproduced or
utilized in any form or by any means, electronic or mechanical,
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TABLE OF CONTENTS
EDITORIAL ...... . IX
WERNER LEINFELLNER, Introduction
Articles
GAME THEORY, EXPERIENCE, RATIONALITY
FOUNDATIONS OF SOCIAL SCIENCES, ECONOMICS AND ETHICS
IN HONOR OF JOHN C. HARSANYI
Keynote Lecture
REINHARD SEL TEN, Game Theory, Experience, Rationality . . . . . . . . .. 9
I. Rationality and the Foundations of the Social Sciences
ANATOL RAPOPORT, Counterproductive Rationality ... . ... 35
THOMAS C. SCHELLING, Rationally Coping With Lapses
From Rationality ................ . .49
JOHN D. HEY, Do Rational People Make Mistakes? . 55
DANIEL M. HAUSMAN, Rationality and Knavery .. .67
JULIAN NIDA-ROMELIN, Structural Rationality in Game Theory . 81
ROBIN POPE, Attractions to and Repulsions From Chance . . . . .95
MATTHIAS HILD/RICHARD JEFFREY IMAT HIAS RISSE, Agreeing to
Disagree: Harsanyi and Aumann ..................... 109
II. Cooperation and Rationality
EDWARD F. MCCLENNEN, Rethinking Rational Cooperation . . . . . . . . 117
VI
KARL SIGMUND/MAARTEN BOERLIJST/MARTIN A. NOWAK, Automata
and Inner States for Repeated Games .................. 131
III. Rationality and Economics
LUTZ BEINSEN/ULRIKE LEOPOLD-WILDBURGER, Towards Bounded
Rationality within Rational Expectations - Some Comments
from an Economic Point of View ............. . ... 141
THOMAS RUSSELL, Macroeconomics and Behavioral Finance
A Tale of Two Disciplines ........................ 153
IV. Bayesian Theory and Rationality
BRIAN SKYRMS, Bayesian Subjunctive Conditionals
for Games and Decisions ......... . ............ 161
ISAAC LEVI, Prediction, Bayesian Deliberation
and Correlated Equilibrium . . . . . . . . . . .... 173
PETER J. HAMMOND, Consequential ism and Bayesian Rationality
in Normal Form Games .......................... 187
V. Evolutionary Game Theory and Game Dynamics
WERNER LEINFELLNER, Game Theory, Sociodynamics,
and Cultural Evolution . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ..... . . . 197
DIRK HELBING, Microscopic Foundation of Stochastic Game
Dynamical Equations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 211
IMMANUEL M. BOMZE, Uniform Barriers
and Evolutionarily Stable Sets .... 225
JOSEF HOFBAUER, Equilibrium Selection via Travelling Waves 245
ANDREAS FLACHE/RAINER HEGSELMANN, Rational vs. Adaptive Egoism
in Support Networks: How Different Micro Foundations
Shape Different Macro Hypotheses ................... 261
VII
VI. Ethics and Game Theory
KEN BINMORE, Evolutionary Ethics .......... . . ..... 277
JOHN C. HARSANYI, A Preference-Based Theory of Well-Being
and a Rule-Utilitarian Theory of Morality ............... 285
VII. Applications of Game Theory
ANTONIO CAMACHO, Variability, Uncertainty,
and the Emergence of Firms and Markets .......... 301
JAAKKO HINTIKKA, A Game Theory of Logic - A Logic
of Game Theory. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 315
DEAN P. FOSTER/H. PEYTON YOUNG, Learning with Hazy Beliefs 325
LUCIAN KERN, A Game-Theoretic Model of the War in Chechnya 337
DENNIS C. MUELLER, Information and Uncertainty:
Power, Profits and Morality ....................... 349
Report - Documentation
ARNE NAESS, The Spirit of the Vienna Circle Devoted
to Questions of Lebens- and Weltauffassung . . . . . . . . . . . 359
CHRISTOPH HOFINGER/OLlVER HOLLE/
MARKUS KNELL, "Sicher ist sicher" .................. 369
Review Essay
GERHARD BENETKA, Scientific Emigration. . . . . . . . . . . . . . 379
KARL H. MULLER, Reflections on the Austrian Knowledge Bases 387
VIII
Reviews
Hans Hahn, Collected Works, Volume 2 and 3, edited by
Leopold Schmetterer and Karl Sigmund (Thomas Mormann) 398
Kurt GOdel, Collected Works, vol.3 (Ulrich FeIgner) ............ 403
John W. Dawson, Jr., Logical Dilemmas. The Life and Work
of Kurt GOdel. (Helmuth Veith) ..................... 406
Bruno de Finetti, Filosofia della probabilita (Maria Carla Galavotti) . . . 408
Friedrich Stadler, Studien zum Wiener Kreis (Hans Sluga) 411
Paolo Parrini, Conoscenza e Realta. Saggio di filosofia
positiva (Michael Stoltzner) ........................ 415
Michael Heidelberger, Die innere Seite der Natur.
Gustav Theodor Fechners Wissenschaftlich-philosophische
Weltauffassung (Veronika Hofer) .................... 420
Martin Carrier, The Completeness of Scientific Theories
(Thomas Breuer) .............................. 424
Jan Faye, Niels Bohr: His Heritage and Legacy
Jan Faye, Henry J. Folse (eds.), Niels Bohr and Contemporary
Philosophy (Anton Zeilinger) ....................... 429
Christian Thiel, Philosophie und Mathematik (Hans-Christian Reichel) .. 432
Jesus Padilla Galvez (ed.), El Circulo de Viena,
Reconsiderado (Camilla R. Nielsen) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 435
Kurt Blaukopf, Pioniere empiristischer Musiliforschung
(K. Peter Etzkorn) ............................. 437
Kurt Blaukopf (Ed.), Philosophie, Literatur und Musik
im Orchester der Wissenschaften (K. Peter Etzkorn) . . . . . . . . . 439
Hans Sluga/David G. Stern (Eds.), The Cambridge Companion
to Wittgenstein (Gabriele Mras) ..................... 442
Activities of the Institute Vienna Circle
SURVEY 1997 ..................................... 449
PREVIEW 1998 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 451
INDEX OF NAMES .................................. 453
EDITORIAL
About 50 years ago, Oskar Morgenstern's article, "Logistik und die
Sozialwissenschaften" , was published in the journal Zeitschrift jUr
Nationa16konomie. Here he directed attention to the rich potential of the "new
logic" (Karl Menger and Kurt GOdel) or "logistics" (Russell and Whitehead) as
a pure formal discipline. For economics Morgenstern explicitly endorsed the
theory of types (Bertrand Russell), axiomatics (David Hilbert) as well as the use
of an exact scientific language, of a so-called "scientific logic" in Rudolf
Camap's sense. He concluded his article by referring to the relevance of these
methods for the social sciences as well, including theoretical economics and
political economics. To this end, he summed up the main ideas of Karl Menger's
book Morality, Decision and Social Organization. Toward a Logic of Ethics
(1934, transl. 1974).
It should be noted that John von Neumann attended a Vienna Circle congress
(Konigsberg 1930) and Menger's famous "Mathematical Colloquium" in the
twenties and thirties.
It would be a misleading exaggeration to claim that the Vienna Circle was the
main source of ideas for today's decision and game theories. It was, however,
one of the principal contributors, inter alia, through Menger's work. I would
only like to recall the intellectual setting on which the modem theory of science
in the natural and social sciences is based. What I am addressing here also has
more to do with a general approach, namely, the attempt to formulate solutions
in clear language with precise formal methods and by recourse to empirical
methods. Still today this approach is relevant in that it provides principles of
research. In the final analysis, this approach is also characteristic of Harsanyi's
work on economics, and has a bearing on social theory as well as ethics.
Moreover, issues such as 'experience' and 'rationality', 'chance' and
'determinism' and their relation were already very seriously discussed issues for
Logical Empiricism.
The evolutionary view of science can be traced from the work of Mach and
Boltzmann to today's evolutionary game theory. Since the seventies, the dynamic
perspective has spread from biology to the rest of science (e.g., mathematization
of Darwinian evolutionary theory). What is at stake here is apparently an all
embracing game of nature and society!
I would like to express my thanks to the following participants of our "game"
who helped make the symposium "Game Theory, Experience, Rationality", held
on June 12 to 15, 1996 in Vienna, possible, which herewith is documented in
this Yearbook:
• the Bundesmisterium fur Wissenschajt, Verkehr und Kunst (Federal Ministry
for Science, Transportation and Art) for funding this conference
