Futures research and environmental sustainability: theory and method

162 Pages·2017·2.42 MB·English

by  Lein, James K

Futures Research
and Environmental
Sustainability
Theory and Method

Futures Research
and Environmental
Sustainability
Theory and Method
James K. Lein
CRC Press
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Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data
Names: Lein, James K., author.
Title: Futures research and environmental sustainability : theory and method
/ James K. Lein.
Description: Boca Raton, FL : Taylor & Francis Group, 2016.
Identifiers: LCCN 2016025913| ISBN 9781498716604 (hardback : alk. paper) |
ISBN 9781498716628 (ebook)
Subjects: LCSH: Sustainability. | Environmental protection. |
Forecasting--Research.
Classification: LCC GE196 .L45 2016 | DDC 338.9/27--dc23
LC record available at https://lccn.loc.gov/2016025913
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To Christine … here’s to the future!

Contents
List of Figures .........................................................................................................ix
List of Tables ...........................................................................................................xi
Preface ...................................................................................................................xiii
Author .....................................................................................................................xv
Introduction ........................................................................................................xvii
1. Environmental Sustainability: The Art and Science ..............................1
1.1 Defining the Challenge ........................................................................1
1.2 Sustainability Theory ...........................................................................5
1.3 The Definition Problem ........................................................................7
1.4 Sustainability Models .........................................................................10
1.5 Weak versus Strong Sustainability ...................................................13
1.6 Embracing the Environmental ..........................................................14
1.7 Summary ..............................................................................................17
References .......................................................................................................17
2. Assessing Environmental Sustainability: The Challenge ...................21
2.1 The Assessment Question ..................................................................21
2.2 Environmental Impact Analysis .......................................................25
2.3 Strategic Environmental Assessment...............................................30
2.4 Environmental Sustainability Assessment .....................................33
2.5 Assessment Indicators ........................................................................33
2.6 Sustainability Indicators ....................................................................36
2.7 Summary ..............................................................................................41
References .......................................................................................................41
3. Prediction, Uncertainty, and Environmental Sustainability ...............45
3.1 Uncertainty and Time ........................................................................45
3.2 Precaution and Environmental Sustainability ...............................49
3.3 Prediction as Process ..........................................................................50
3.4 Event Tree Analysis ............................................................................52
3.5 Summary ..............................................................................................56
References .......................................................................................................57
4. Introducing the Future ................................................................................59
4.1 The Science of the Future ...................................................................59
4.2 Forecasting Preliminaries ..................................................................61
4.3 Considering the Long Term ...............................................................63
4.4 Prospective Analysis ..........................................................................66
vii
viii Contents
4.5 Visioning the Future ...........................................................................68
4.6 Summary ..............................................................................................69
References .......................................................................................................70
5. Methodological Approaches ......................................................................73
5.1 Exploring Sustainable Futures ..........................................................73
5.2 A Typology of Method .......................................................................75
5.2.1 Qualitative Forecasting Methods ........................................76
5.2.2 Quantitative Forecasting Methods ......................................82
5.3 Summary ..............................................................................................88
References .......................................................................................................89
6. Geospatial Solutions ....................................................................................91
6.1 Technique and Technology ................................................................91
6.2 Constructing Spatial Models .............................................................96
6.3 Decision Analytics ..............................................................................98
6.3.1 Multicriteria Decision Analysis .........................................100
6.4 Crafting the Geospatial Solution ....................................................104
6.5 Summary ............................................................................................105
References .....................................................................................................106
7. Scenarios and Uncertainty ........................................................................109
7.1 The Scenario Concept .......................................................................109
7.2 Scenario Development ......................................................................114
7.3 Uncertainty Revisited .......................................................................118
7.4 Scenario Planning and Visioning ...................................................120
7.5 Summary ............................................................................................123
References .....................................................................................................123
8. Sustainability Strategies ...........................................................................125
8.1 The Challenge of Change .................................................................125
8.2 Resilience Planning ..........................................................................128
8.3 Policies and Prescriptions ................................................................131
8.4 Examples from the Field ..................................................................135
8.5 Monitoring Sustainability ................................................................138
8.6 Summary ............................................................................................140
References .....................................................................................................141
Index .....................................................................................................................143
List of Figures
Figure 1.1 Natural and human-induced impact/modification cycle. ..........3
Figure 1.2 The coupled system of environmental process and
ecosystem support services. ............................................................8
Figure 1.3 Examples of (a) the three pillars concept of sustainability
and (b) the three-legged conceptual model. ...............................11
Figure 1.4 Integrative models of sustainability identifying
(a) overlapping elements and (b) nested elements
of the concept. ..................................................................................12
Figure 1.5 The environmental base supporting the sustainability
pyramid. ...........................................................................................15
Figure 1.6 S ustainability balanced by societal motivations and
environmental risk..........................................................................17
Figure 2.1 Linking strategies with processes to frame
assessment activities. ......................................................................22
Figure 2.2 The sustainability assessment process. .......................................25
Figure 2.3 Generalized stages of environmental assessment. ....................29
Figure 2.4 Generalized stages of SEA. ............................................................31
Figure 3.1 The dimensions of uncertainty .....................................................46
Figure 3.2 Steps involved in the management of environmental
uncertainty. ......................................................................................48
Figure 3.3 Stages of predicative inferences. ...................................................52
Figure 3.4 Generalized example of an event tree diagram. ........................54
Figure 3.5 I llustrative example of an event tree tracing hypothetical
wind energy siting decision. .........................................................55
Figure 4.1 The general stages of the forecasting process. ............................63
Figure 4.2 A typology of futures research methods. ...................................67
Figure 5.1 An example of a cross-impact matrix. .........................................75
Figure 5.2 The general process of modeling and simulation. .....................83
Figure 5.3 Geospatial analysis transforming data to information. ............86
ix
x List of Figures
Figure 6.1 An example of cartographic (map) modeling workflow. ..........92
Figure 6.2 The general GIS layer cake model. ...............................................95
Figure 6.3 The logic-driven process of spatial reasoning. ...........................96
Figure 6.4 A typology of decision problems..................................................98
Figure 6.5 Three categories of decision-making situations. ........................99
Figure 7.1 Elements of the scenario concept. ...............................................111
Figure 7.2 Eight-stage approach to scenario construction. ........................116
Figure 7.3 The scenario planning approach. ...............................................121
Figure 8.1 Characterizing the elements of change......................................128
Figure 8.2 Features of the sustainability planning method. .....................131
Figure 8.3 Generic elements common to sustainability plans. .................136
Figure 8.4 Features of an environmental sustainability monitoring
program. .........................................................................................139