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Future Wave and Wind Projections for United States and United States-Affiliated Pacific Islands Open-File Report 2015–1001 U.S. Department of the Interior U.S. Geological Survey Cover image: Aerial photograph of waves breaking on the fringing reef off Ennuebing Island, Kwajalein Atoll, Republic of the Marshall Islands Future Wave and Wind Projections for United States and United States-Affiliated Pacific Islands By Curt D. Storlazzi, James B. Shope, Li H. Erikson, Christie A. Hegermiller, and Patrick L. Barnard Open-File Report 2015-1001 U.S. Department of the Interior U.S. Geological Survey U.S. Department of the Interior SALLY JEWELL, Secretary U.S. Geological Survey Suzette M. Kimball, Acting Director U.S. Geological Survey, Reston, Virginia: 2015 For more information on the USGS—the Federal source for science about the Earth, its natural and living resources, natural hazards, and the environment—visit http://www.usgs.gov or call 1–888–ASK–USGS (1-888-275-8747) For an overview of USGS information products, including maps, imagery, and publications, visit http://www.usgs.gov/pubprod To order this and other USGS information products, visit http://store.usgs.gov Any use of trade, firm, or product names is for descriptive purposes only and does not imply endorsement by the U.S. Government. Although this information product, for the most part, is in the public domain, it also may contain copyrighted materials as noted in the text. Permission to reproduce copyrighted items must be secured from the copyright owner. Suggested citation: Storlazzi, C.D., Shope, J.B., Erikson, L.H., Hegermiller, C.A., and Barnard, P.L., 2015, Future wave and wind projections for United States and United States-affiliated Pacific Islands: U.S. Geological Survey Open-File Report 2015–1001, 426 p., http://dx.doi.org/10.3133/ofr20151001. ISSN 2331–1258 (online) Contents Abstract ........................................................................................................................................................................................... 1 Introduction...................................................................................................................................................................................... 2 Project Objectives ....................................................................................................................................................................... 3 Study Area................................................................................................................................................................................... 4 Methods........................................................................................................................................................................................... 4 Global Climate Model Input Data ................................................................................................................................................ 4 WAVEWATCH-III Wave Modeling ............................................................................................................................................... 5 Wave Parameter Statistics .......................................................................................................................................................... 6 Model Skill ................................................................................................................................................................................... 7 Results ............................................................................................................................................................................................ 8 Model Skill ................................................................................................................................................................................... 8 Regional Results ....................................................................................................................................................................... 10 Wave Climate Parameter Changes ....................................................................................................................................... 10 The Western Region ......................................................................................................................................................... 10 Mid-Century: 2026–2045 ............................................................................................................................................... 10 End-Century: 2081–2100 .............................................................................................................................................. 12 Marianas Region ............................................................................................................................................................... 13 Mid-Century: 2026–2045 ............................................................................................................................................... 13 End-Century: 2081–2100 .............................................................................................................................................. 15 Central Region .................................................................................................................................................................. 16 Mid-Century: 2026–2045 ............................................................................................................................................... 16 End-Century: 2081–2100 .............................................................................................................................................. 18 Northeast Region .............................................................................................................................................................. 20 Mid-Century: 2026–2045 ............................................................................................................................................... 20 End-Century: 2081–2100 .............................................................................................................................................. 22 Eastern Equatorial Region ................................................................................................................................................ 24 Mid-Century: 2026–2045 ............................................................................................................................................... 24 End-Century: 2081–2100 .............................................................................................................................................. 26 Southern Region ............................................................................................................................................................... 27 Mid-Century: 2026–2045 ............................................................................................................................................... 27 End-Century: 2081–2100 .............................................................................................................................................. 29 Wind Climate Parameter Changes ........................................................................................................................................ 30 Western Region ................................................................................................................................................................. 30 Mid-Century: 2026–2045 ............................................................................................................................................... 30 End-Century: 2081–2100 .............................................................................................................................................. 31 Marianas Region ............................................................................................................................................................... 32 Mid-Century: 2026–2045 ............................................................................................................................................... 32 End-Century: 2081–2100 .............................................................................................................................................. 34 Central Region .................................................................................................................................................................. 35 Mid-Century: 2026–2045 ............................................................................................................................................... 35 End-Century: 2081–2100 .............................................................................................................................................. 37 iii Northeast Region .............................................................................................................................................................. 39 Mid-Century: 2026–2045 ............................................................................................................................................... 39 End-Century: 2081–2100 .............................................................................................................................................. 40 Eastern Equatorial Region ................................................................................................................................................ 42 Mid-Century: 2026–2045 ............................................................................................................................................... 42 End-Century: 2081–2100 .............................................................................................................................................. 43 Southern Region ............................................................................................................................................................... 44 Mid-Century: 2026–2045 ............................................................................................................................................... 44 End-Century: 2081–2100 .............................................................................................................................................. 45 Discussion ..................................................................................................................................................................................... 46 Spatial and Temporal H and U Trends.................................................................................................................................... 47 s a Significant Wave Heights ...................................................................................................................................................... 47 Mid-Century: 2026–2045 ................................................................................................................................................... 47 End-Century: 2081–2100 .................................................................................................................................................. 47 Mean Wind Speeds ............................................................................................................................................................... 48 Mid-Century: 2026–2045 ................................................................................................................................................... 48 End-century: 2081–2100 ................................................................................................................................................... 48 Spatial and Temporal T , D , and U Trends ............................................................................................................................. 49 p p θ Peak Wave Periods ............................................................................................................................................................... 49 Mid-Century: 2026–2045 ................................................................................................................................................... 49 End Century: 2081–2100 .................................................................................................................................................. 49 Mean Wave Directions .......................................................................................................................................................... 49 Mid-Century: 2026–2045 ................................................................................................................................................... 49 End-Century: 2081–2100 .................................................................................................................................................. 50 Mean Wind Directions ........................................................................................................................................................... 51 Mid-Century: 2026–2045 ................................................................................................................................................... 51 End-Century: 2081–2100 .................................................................................................................................................. 51 Implications ............................................................................................................................................................................... 51 Conclusions ................................................................................................................................................................................... 53 Acknowledgments ......................................................................................................................................................................... 54 Additional Digital Information ......................................................................................................................................................... 54 Direct Contact Information ............................................................................................................................................................. 54 References Cited ........................................................................................................................................................................... 55 Appendix A. Wave Height, Wave Period, and Wave Direction Statistics .................................................................................... 227 Appendix B. Wind Speed and Wind Direction Statistics .............................................................................................................. 277 Appendix C. Monthly Trends in Wave Height .............................................................................................................................. 327 Appendix D. Monthly Trends in Wind Speeds ............................................................................................................................. 377 iv Tables 1. Table of names and locations of WAVEWATCH III model points within the mid-to-western tropical Pacific Ocean .......................................................................................................................................................................57 2. List of Global Climate Models used, wave model used, and the model resolutions .....................................................57 3. Table showing comparisons between hindcast significant wave height data, in meters, at the Molokai point and historical significant wave height data from selected NDBC stations throughout the Hawaiian Islands by months .................................................................................................................................................................57 4. Table showing comparisons between hindcast significant wave height data, in meters, at the Big Island of Hawaii point and historical significant wave height data from selected NDBC stations throughout the Hawaiian Islands by months. ....................................................................................................................................59 5. Table showing comparisons between hindcast significant wave height data, in meters, at the Kauai point and historical significant wave height data from selected NDBC stations throughout the Hawaiian Islands by months. ................................................................................................................................................................59 6. Table showing comparisons between hindcast top 5 percent of significant wave height data, in meters, at the Molokai point and historical significant wave height data from selected NDBC stations throughout the Hawaiian Islands by months. ....................................................................................................................................60 7. Table showing comparisons between hindcast top 5 percent of significant wave height data, in meters, at the Big Island of Hawaii point and historical significant wave height data from selected NDBC stations throughout the Hawaiian Islands by months. ............................................................................................................60 8. Table showing comparisons between hindcast top 5 percent of significant wave height data, in meters, at the Kauai point and historical significant wave height data from selected NDBC stations throughout the Hawaiian Islands by months. ....................................................................................................................................61 Figures 1. Map showing the locations of the 25 modeled points within the tropical Pacific Ocean used in this study. ................62 2. Map showing the locations of selected National Data Buoy Center stations, in purple, and modeled points, in red, within in the Hawaiian Island Chain. ..............................................................................................................63 3. Plots showing comparisons of the empirical cumulative density functions of hindcasted (1986-2005) Molokai point significant wave heights (H) in meters, from each GCM-driven WW3 model run with the s observed historical cumulative density function at each NDBC station.. ...................................................................64 4. Plots showing comparisons of the empirical cumulative density functions of hindcasted (1986-2005) Big Island of Hawaii point significant wave heights (H) in meters from each GCM-driven WW3 model run s with the observed historical cumulative density function at each NDBC station. ......................................................65 5. Plots showing comparisons of the empirical cumulative density functions of hindcasted (1986-2005) Kauai point significant wave heights (H) in meters from each GCM-driven WW3 model run with the observed s historical cumulative density function at each NDBC station. ...................................................................................66 6. Map showing forecasted differences in mean significant wave height and variance in significant wave height for the years 2026–2045 from hindcasted values during the December-February season under the RCP4.5 future climatic scenario. ...............................................................................................................................67 7. Map showing forecasted differences in mean significant wave height and variance in significant wave height for the years 2026–2045 from hindcasted values during the March-May season under the RCP4.5 future climatic scenario. ............................................................................................................................................68 v 8. Map showing forecasted differences in mean significant wave height and variance in significant wave height for the years 2026–2045 from hindcasted values during the June-August season under the RCP4.5 future climatic scenario. ...............................................................................................................................69 9. Map showing forecasted differences in mean significant wave height and variance in significant wave height for the years 2026–2045 from hindcasted values during the September-November season under the RCP4.5 future climatic scenario. .........................................................................................................................70 10. Map showing forecasted differences in the mean of the top 5 percent of significant wave heights and variance in the top 5 percent of significant wave heights for the years 2026–2045 from hindcasted values during the December-February season under the RCP4.5 future climatic scenario.. ...............................................71 11. Map showing forecasted differences in the mean of the top 5 percent of significant wave heights and variance in the top 5 percent of significant wave heights for the years 2026–2045 from hindcasted values during the March-May season under the RCP4.5 future climatic scenario. ..............................................................72 12. Map showing forecasted differences in the mean of the top 5 percent of significant wave heights and variance in the top 5 percent of significant wave heights for the years 2026–2045 from hindcasted values during the June-August season under the RCP4.5 future climatic scenario. ............................................................73 13. Map showing forecasted differences in the mean of the top 5 percent of significant wave heights and variance in the top 5 percent of significant wave heights for the years 2026–2045 from hindcasted values during the September-November season under the RCP4.5 future climatic scenario. .............................................74 14. Map showing forecasted differences in mean significant wave height and variance in significant wave height for the years 2026–2045 from hindcasted values during the December-February season under the RCP8.5 future climatic scenario. ...............................................................................................................................75 15. Map showing forecasted differences in mean significant wave height and variance in significant wave height for the years 2026–2045 from hindcasted values during the March-May season under the RCP8.5 future climatic scenario. ............................................................................................................................................76 16. Map showing forecasted differences in mean significant wave height and variance in significant wave height for the years 2026–2045 from hindcasted values during the June-August season under the RCP8.5 future climatic scenario. ...............................................................................................................................77 17. Map showing forecasted differences in mean significant wave height and variance in significant wave height for the years 2026–2045 from hindcasted values during the September-November season under the RCP8.5 future climatic scenario. .........................................................................................................................78 18. Map showing forecasted differences in the mean of the top 5 percent of significant wave heights and variance in the top 5 percent of significant wave heights for the years 2026–2045 from hindcasted values during the December-February season under the RCP8.5 future climatic scenario.. ...............................................79 19. Map showing forecasted differences in the mean of the top 5 percent of significant wave heights and variance in the top 5 percent of significant wave heights for the years 2026–2045 from hindcasted values during the March-May season under the RCP8.5 future climatic scenario. ..............................................................80 20. Map showing forecasted differences in the mean of the top 5 percent of significant wave heights and variance in the top 5 percent of significant wave heights for the years 2026–2045 from hindcasted values during the June-August season under the RCP8.5 future climatic scenario. ............................................................81 21. Map showing forecasted differences in the mean of the top 5 percent of significant wave heights and variance in the top 5 percent of significant wave heights for the years 2026–2045 from hindcasted values during the September-November season under the RCP8.5 future climatic scenario. .............................................82 22. Map showing forecasted differences in mean significant wave height and variance in significant wave height for the years 2081–2100 from hindcasted values during the December-February season under the RCP4.5 future climatic scenario. ...............................................................................................................................83 vi 23. Map showing forecasted differences in mean significant wave height and variance in significant wave height for the years 2081–2100 from hindcasted values during the March-May season under the RCP4.5 future climatic scenario. ............................................................................................................................................84 24. Map showing forecasted differences in mean significant wave height and variance in significant wave height for the years 2081–2100 from hindcasted values during the June-August season under the RCP4.5 future climatic scenario. ...............................................................................................................................85 25. Map showing forecasted differences in mean significant wave height and variance in significant wave height for the years 2081–2100 from hindcasted values during the September-November season under the RCP4.5 future climatic scenario. .........................................................................................................................86 26. Map showing forecasted differences in the mean of the top 5 percent of significant wave heights and variance in the top 5 percent of significant wave heights for the years 2081–2100 from hindcasted values during the December-February season under the RCP4.5 future climatic scenario. ................................................87 27. Map showing forecasted differences in the mean of the top 5 percent of significant wave heights and variance in the top 5 percent of significant wave heights for the years 2081–2100 from hindcasted values during the March-May season under the RCP4.5 future climatic scenario. ..............................................................88 28. Map showing forecasted differences in the mean of the top 5 percent of significant wave heights and variance in the top 5 percent of significant wave heights for the years 2081–2100 from hindcasted values during the June-August season under the RCP4.5 future climatic scenario. ............................................................89 29. Map showing forecasted differences in the mean of the top 5 percent of significant wave heights and variance in the top 5 percent of significant wave heights for the years 2081–2100 from hindcasted values during the September-November season under the RCP4.5 future climatic scenario. .............................................90 30. Map showing forecasted differences in mean significant wave height and variance in significant wave height for the years 2081–2100 from hindcasted values during the December-February season under the RCP8.5 future climatic scenario. ...............................................................................................................................91 31. Map showing forecasted differences in mean significant wave height and variance in significant wave height for the years 2081–2100 from hindcasted values during the March-May season under the RCP8.5 future climatic scenario. ............................................................................................................................................92 32. Map showing forecasted differences in mean significant wave height and variance in significant wave height for the years 2081–2100 from hindcasted values during the June-August season under the RCP8.5 future climatic scenario. The colors correspond to the magnitude of change in modeled mean significant wave heights during 2081–2100 from those hindcasted for 1976–2005. The shapes correspond to the magnitude of change in modeled variance in significant wave height during 2081–2100 from those hindcasted for 1976–2005. Units are in meters. .....................................................................................93 33. Map showing forecasted differences in mean significant wave height and variance in significant wave height for the years 2081–2100 from hindcasted values during the September-November season under the RCP8.5 future climatic scenario. .........................................................................................................................94 34. Map showing forecasted differences in the mean of the top 5 percent of significant wave heights and variance in the top 5 percent of significant wave heights for the years 2081–2100 from hindcasted values during the December-February season under the RCP8.5 future climatic scenario. ................................................95 35. Map showing forecasted differences in the mean of the top 5 percent of significant wave heights and variance in the top 5 percent of significant wave heights for the years 2081–2100 from hindcasted values during the March-May season under the RCP8.5 future climatic scenario. ..............................................................96 36. Map showing forecasted differences in the mean of the top 5 percent of significant wave heights and variance in the top 5 percent of significant wave heights for the years 2081–2100 from hindcasted values during the June-August season under the RCP8.5 future climatic scenario. ............................................................97 vii 37. Map showing forecasted differences in the mean of the top 5 percent of significant wave heights and variance in the top 5 percent of significant wave heights for the years 2081–2100 from hindcasted values during the September-November season under the RCP8.5 future climatic scenario. .............................................98 38. Map showing forecasted differences in mean peak wave period and variance in peak wave period for the years 2026–2045 from hindcasted values during the December-February season under the RCP4.5 future climatic scenario. ............................................................................................................................................99 39. Map showing forecasted differences in mean peak wave period and variance in peak wave period for the years 2026–2045 from hindcasted values during the March-May season under the RCP4.5 future climatic scenario. ................................................................................................................................................................. 100 40. Map showing forecasted differences in mean peak wave period and variance in peak wave period for the years 2026–2045 from hindcasted values during the June-August season under the RCP4.5 future climatic scenario. .................................................................................................................................................... 101 41. Map showing forecasted differences in mean peak wave period and variance in peak wave period for the years 2026–2045 from hindcasted values during the September-November season under the RCP4.5 future climatic scenario. .......................................................................................................................................... 102 42. Map showing forecasted differences in the mean peak wave period of the top 5 percent of significant wave heights and variance in the peak wave period of top 5 percent of significant wave heights for the years 2026–2045 from hindcasted values during the December-February season under the RCP4.5 future climatic scenario. .......................................................................................................................................... 103 43. Map showing forecasted differences in the mean peak wave period of the top 5 percent of significant wave heights and variance in the peak wave period of top 5 percent of significant wave heights for the years 2026–2045 from hindcasted values during the March-May season under the RCP4.5 future climatic scenario. ................................................................................................................................................................. 104 44. Map showing forecasted differences in the mean peak wave period of the top 5 percent of significant wave heights and variance in the peak wave period of top 5 percent of significant wave heights for the years 2026–2045 from hindcasted values during the June-August season under the RCP4.5 future climatic scenario. .................................................................................................................................................... 105 45. Map showing forecasted differences in the mean peak wave period of the top 5 percent of significant wave heights and variance in the peak wave period of top 5 percent of significant wave heights for the years 2026–2045 from hindcasted values during the September-November season under the RCP4.5 future climatic scenario. .......................................................................................................................................... 106 46. Map showing forecasted differences in mean peak wave period and variance in peak wave period for the years 2026–2045 from hindcasted values during the December-February season under the RCP8.5 future climatic scenario. .......................................................................................................................................... 107 47. Map showing forecasted differences in mean peak wave period and variance in peak wave period for the years 2026–2045 from hindcasted values during the March-May season under the RCP8.5 future climatic scenario. ................................................................................................................................................................. 108 48. Map showing forecasted differences in mean peak wave period and variance in peak wave period for the years 2026–2045 from hindcasted values during the June-August season under the RCP8.5 future climatic scenario. .................................................................................................................................................... 109 49. Map showing forecasted differences in mean peak wave period and variance in peak wave period for the years 2026–2045 from hindcasted values during the September-November season under the RCP8.5 future climatic scenario. .......................................................................................................................................... 110 50. Map showing forecasted differences in the mean peak wave period of the top 5 percent of significant wave heights and variance in the peak wave period of top 5 percent of significant wave heights for the years 2026–2045 from hindcasted values during the December-February season under the RCP8.5 future climatic scenario. .......................................................................................................................................... 111 viii

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For an overview of USGS information products, including maps, imagery, and wind projections for United States and United States-affiliated Pacific and historical significant wave height data from selected NDBC stations

Future Wave and Wind Projections for United States and United States-Affiliated Pacific Islands PDF

455 Pages·2015·31.77 MB·English

by Susan A. Cochran

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