Future Stresses for Energy Resources: Energy Abundance: Myth or Reality?

249 Pages·1986·5.28 MB·English

by  Jean-Romain Frisch (auth.)

FUTURE STRESSES
FOR ENERGY RESOURCES
ENERGY ABUNDANCE: MYTH OR REALITY?
WORLD ENERGY CONFERENCE
Conservation Commission
FUTURE STRESSES
FOR ENERGY
RESOURCES
ENERGY ABUNDANCE: MYTH OR REALITY?
Jean-Romain Frisch
Assistant to the General Manager of
Electricite de France
Director of the F.U.S.E.R. Project
Graham &1 Trotman
A Member of the Kluwer Academic Publishers Group
First published in 1986 by:
Graham & Trotman Ltd Graham & Trotman Inc.
Sterling House 13 Park Avenue
66 Wilton Road Gaithersburg
London SWI V IDE MO 20877
UK USA
© World Energy Conference, 1986
Softcover reprint ofthc hardcover 1st edition 1986
Britiah Library Cataloguing in PublicatioD Oata
Friseh, Jean-Romain
Future stresses for energy resources:
energy abundance: myth or reality?
1. Power resources
I. Title II. World Energy Conference
Corurervaiwn Commisswn
333.79'12 TJI63.2
ISBN-13: 978-94-010-8368-3 e·ISBN·13: 978·94·009·4209·7
DOl: 10.1007/978·94-009-4209·7
LCCCN 86-081643
All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrievalayatem,
or transmitted, in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or
otherwise, without the prior permission of the publishers.
Typeset in Great Britain by Acorn Bookwork, Salisbury, Wiltshire
Printed and bound in Greal Britain at ThE:' Alden Press Ltd. Oxford
CONTENTS
Foreword Ix
Acknowledgements xi
Abbreviations xii
OVERVIEW OF THE STUDY xiii
1. The Parable of the Foolish Virgins xv
2. Specificity of the Project xvi
3. Terms of reference xviii
4. Organization of the Project xix
5. Technical procedure xxii
5.1 Regional breakdown xxii
5.2 Demand xxii
5.2.1 Reference base xxii
5.2.2 Projections 2040-2060 xxiv
5.3 Reserves xxv
5.3.1 Reference base xxv
5.3.2 Classification of reserves xxvi
5.3.3 Nuclear variants xxvii
5.4 Comparison of demand and reserves xxvii
5.4.1 Axes of analysis xxvii
5.4.2 Evolution of stresses xxix
6. Scope of the study xxxi
PART I: RESULTS
1. Consumption projections 3
1.1 Total energy consumption 3
1.1.1 World demand 3
1. 1.2 North/South axis 6
1.1.3 Contrasts of South 9
1.2 Supply structure 11
1.2.1 World 11
1.2.2 North 16
1.2.3 South 18
1.3 Accumulated consumptions 20
v
vi CONTENTS
2. Energy resources 23
2.1 Regional outlook 23
2.1.1 World 23
2.1.2 North/South 23
2.2 Analysis by energy source 25
2.2.1 Solid mineral fuels 25
2.2.2 Oil 25
2.2.3 Natural gas 25
2.2.4 Uranium 26
2.2.5 Total non-renewable energies 26
3. General table of demand/resource stresses 29
4. Stresses in time 33
4.1 Short term: 1985-2000 33
4.2 Medium term: 2000-2020 34
4.3 Long term: 2020-2040 36
4.4 Very long term: 2020-2060 37
5. Stresses in space 41
5.1 Level 3: the 6 basic regions 41
5.1.1 North 1 41
5.1.2 North 2 41
5.1.3 South 1 42
5.1.4 South 2 42
5.1.5 Centrally Planned Asia 42
5.1.6 Third world with market economy 43
5.2 Level 2: The Global regions 43
5.2.1 North 43
5.2.2 South 44
5.2.3 Market Economy Zone 44
5.2.4 Centrally Planned Zone 44
5.3 Level 1: The world 45
6. Stresses by energy source 47
6.1 Solid mineral fuels 47
6.2 Oil 47
6.3 Natural gas 49
6.4 Uranium 49
6.5 Sensitivity variants 50
6.5.1 Fuelwood constrained variant 51
6.5.2 Nuclear variants 51
a. Breeder reactors 51
b. Nuclear moratorium 53
6.5.3 Fossil fuel constrained variant 54
PART II: CONCLUSIONS
7. Conclusions 59
7.1 Slight stresses 60
7.2 Limited stresses 60
7.3 Serious stresses 60
7.4 Acute stresses 61
7.5 Energy abundance? 63
CONTENTS vii
PART III: TECHNICAL ANNEXES
Annex 1: Composition and maps of the regions 67
Annex 2: Composition of the review panels 72
Annex 3: Units - equivalences 74
Annex 4: Demographic projections 1960-2060 75
ENERGY CONSUMPTIONS
Annex 5: Reference base 1960-1980 (1984) 77
Annex 6: Projections 2000-2020 85
Annex 7: Projections 2040-2060 94
Annex 8: Accumulated consumptions 1985-2060 105
Annex 9: Sensitivity variants 123
ENERGY RESOURCES
Annex 10: Solid mineral fuels 136
Annex 11: Oil 140
Annex 12: Natural gas 143
Annex 13: Uranium 144
Annex 14: Non-renewable energies 157
Annex 15: Graphs for accumulated consumptions/resources 162
Annex 16: Evaluation of stresses on resources 208
Annex 17: Main statistical sources 221
List of tables 222
List of figures 225
FOREWORD
From its very beginnings, the Conservation Commission has devoted a large
part of its research to long-term energy analyses. Following the first oil
shock, it undertook its earliest work on the world demand-supply equilib
rium for the period 2000-2020, the results of which were presented to the
10th Congress of the Conference at Istanbul in 1977. Since then, its analyses
have become ever deeper, ever more various. In 1980, the stress was on the
future for the Third World, while in 1983, its forecasts set out a new
panorama for the world and for the main regions in the period 2000-2020.
Therefore, what was more natural than that the Conservation Commission
should bring its interest to bear on one of the major aspects of energy
strategy: the comparison of future needs not merely with the fluctuations of
supply but also with stocks of reserves. The problem, of course, had not been
entirely ignored, but the field tended to be one in which intuitions and
sketchy proofs were more readily available than systematic and comprehen
sive analysis.
Thus it was that, following the New Delhi Congress, the decision was
made to seek a better understanding of the problem, and the 'FUSER'
project was born. The objective was to produce a dynamic comparison,
bringing together long-term demand forecasts with the levels of reserves for
different energy sources in order to pick out, in time and space, those areas
of tension which might affect the balance of the world system. It was to look
beyond the vicissitudes of the short-term and 'impressions' of the future to
find a better answer to the fundamental question: will abundant energy
remain forever a myth, or is there a chance that it might become a reality?
Though conceived initially as a simple statistical review, as its work
developed, the project grew in terms both of data and hypotheses, yet
without ever losing its methodological simplicity. This voluminous report
sets out the principles used for calculation and the results obtained.
Inevitably, in breaking new ground beyond classical approaches and the
well-trodden paths ofthe short-term, there are lacunae, approximations and
a certain measure of the schematic and the arbitrary. Nevertheless, the
FUSER project has borne fruit. To a considerable extent, the earlier
analyses of the Commission have been confirmed. Though the majority of
consumers may today be experiencing a tangible and welcome relaxation on
the energy front, they should be under no illusions.
The study shows clearly that the physical limits remain and that, while
crises may have been deferred, they have by no means disappeared. We
cannot expect to escape periods of scarcity and tension. By the turn of the
century, certain vulnerable regions, in particular the industrialized ones,
will come under threat as certain sources, notably the hydrocarbons, begin
to run out. Furthermore, while the future for coal seems secure, the same
cannot be said for uranium. Even with nuclear programmes being reduced,
the need for breeder reactors is matched only by their lack of market
penetration. All this gives us food for thought.
ix
x FOREWORD
As it stands, the FUSER project provides grounds both for vigilance and
hope:
Vigilance so that we are not lulled into a false sense of security by present
conditions. The Commission has rung the alarm bells more than once. Its
finger remains on the button.
Hope exists if the courageous and opportune decisions taken at the struc
turallevel which have directed the world energy system to a less precarious
balance are now persevered with so that the future of the sector is planned
with care and more effectively mastered rather than left to the vagaries of
the economic situation.
Marcel Boiteux
Chairman of the Conservation Commission
of the World Energy Conference
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
I first wish to thank Mr Marcel Boiteux, Chairman of Electricite de France
and of the Conservation Commission, who promoted the project from its very
beginning and supervised it with his usual vigilance and availability.
Thanks, too, to the General Management of Electricite de France which
allowed me to devote most of my time during the last three years to this
study.
Many thanks to Mr Eric Ruttley, Secretary General of the World Energy
Conference, who carefully monitored the evolution of the project and sup
ported the English translation.
Acknowledgements are also due to the members of the Conservation
Commission, to the experts of the Review Panels who took pains in re
assessing our estimates, to the Steering Committee of the Survey of Energy
Resources and especially to Mr Michael Schomberg who constantly helped
us in mastering the data on resources.
Within Electricite de France, many thanks are due to the Bureau
d'Etudes of the Research and Studies Direction in Chatou which patiently
computerized the graphs of Annex 15; and especially to Isabelle Leullieux
who did more than necessary in reshaping the work, making it more
valuable through her clear and attractive presentation.
Thanks to my wife Catherine and to my children who closely sustained me
through their prayer and patiently bore the inconveniences of this work.
Thanks also to my brothers of the Emmanuel Community who prayed so
often for me.
Above all, thanks be given to the Holy Spirit who unceasingly guided my
task, gave me peace during its most difficult phases, and helped me in
discovering solutions to all the problems I met in the course of the study; and
without losing sight of what is essential: a future of hope is still open to men
and women of tomorrow.
J-R. Frisch Paris
June 1986
xi
ABBREVIATIONS
AR additional resources NRE non-renewable energies
BF balance factor NS new energy sources
C projection 'C' NU nuclear
o
Con consumption oil
cal calorie OP oil products
CEC commercial energy P petroleum
consumption PEC primary energy
CPA Centrally Planned Asian consumption
Countries PP petroleum products
CO conventional oil PR proven reserves
CPZ Centrally Planned Zone Q quantities
D demand R Resources
FW fuelwood RE renewable energies
G giga or billion (= 109) I accumulated sum
GNP gross national product S supply
H projection 'H' SER Survey of Energy
HV heat value Resources
HY hydropower SMF solid mineral fuels
inhb inhabitant S-CPA South-Centrally Planned
J joule Asian Countries
JANZ Japan-Australia-New SR speculative resources
Zealand ST short term
LT long term T ton
M mega or million (= 106) TCE ton of coal equivalent
MEZ Market Economy Zone TFF total fossil fuels
MT medium term Th thorium
NCE non-commercial energy TOE ton of oil equivalent
NCEC non-commercial energy TPP total petroleum products
consumption U,UR uranium
NCO non-conventional oil YAW vegetable and animal
NG natural gas wastes
NGL natural gas liquids VLT very long term
WEC World Energy Conference