Table Of ContentFuture Science Opportunities in Antarctica and the Southern Ocean
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Future Science Opportunities in
Antarctica and the Southern Ocean
Committee on Future Science Opportunities in
Antarctica and the Southern Ocean
Polar Research Board
Division on Earth and Life Studies
This prepublication version of Future Science Opportunities in Antarctica and the
Southern Ocean has been provided to the public to facilitate timely access to the report.
Although the substance of the report is final, editorial changes may be made throughout
the text and citations will be checked prior to publication. The final report will be
available through the National Academies Press by winter 2011.
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Future Science Opportunities in Antarctica and the Southern Ocean
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Future Science Opportunities in Antarctica and the Southern Ocean
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Future Science Opportunities in Antarctica and the Southern Ocean
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Future Science Opportunities in Antarctica and the Southern Ocean
COMMITTEE ON FUTURE SCIENCE OPPORTUNITIES IN THE ANTARCTIC AND
SOUTHERN OCEAN
WARREN M. ZAPOL (Chair), Harvard Medical School and Massachusetts General Hospital,
Boston
ROBIN E. BELL, Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Palisades, New York
DAVID H. BROMWICH, Ohio State University, Columbus
THOMAS F. BUDINGER, University of California, Berkeley
JOHN E. CARLSTROM, University of Chicago, Illinois
RITA R. COLWELL, University of Maryland, College Park
SARAH B. DAS, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Massachusetts
HUGH W. DUCKLOW, Marine Biological Laboratory, Woods Hole, Massachusetts
PETER HUYBERS, Harvard University, Cambridge, Massachusetts
JOHN LESLIE KING, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor
RAMON E. LOPEZ, University of Texas, Arlington
OLAV ORHEIM, Research Council of Norway, Oslo
STANLEY B. PRUSINER, University of California, San Francisco
MARILYN RAPHAEL, University of California, Los Angeles
PETER SCHLOSSER, Columbia University, Palisades, New York
LYNNE D. TALLEY, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, La Jolla, California
DIANA H. WALL, Colorado State University, Fort Collins
NRC Staff
EDWARD DUNLEA, Study Director
LAUREN BROWN, Research Associate
AMANDA PURCELL, Senior Program Assistant
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Future Science Opportunities in Antarctica and the Southern Ocean
POLAR RESEARCH BOARD
JAMES W. C. WHITE (Chair), University of Colorado, Boulder
SRIDHAR ANANDAKRISHNAN, Pennsylvania State University, University Park
JULIE BRIGHAM-GRETTE, University of Massachusetts, Amherst
DAVID H. BROMWICH, Ohio State University, Columbus
JENNIFER A. FRANCIS, Rutgers University, New Brunswick, New Jersey
EILEEN E. HOFMANN, Old Dominion University, Norfolk, Virginia
BERNICE M. JOSEPH, University of Alaska, Fairbanks
AMY LAUREN LOVECRAFT, University of Alaska, Fairbanks
MOLLY E. MCCAMMON, Alaska Ocean Observing System, Anchorage
ELLEN S. MOSLEY-THOMPSON, Ohio State University, Columbus
GEORGE B. NEWTON, QinetiQ North America, Marstons Mills, Massachusetts
CARYN REA, ConocoPhillips, Anchorage, Alaska
VLADIMIR E. ROMANOVSKY, University of Alaska, Fairbanks
GAIUS R. SHAVER, Marine Biological Laboratory, Woods Hole, Massachusetts
ALLAN T. WEATHERWAX, Siena College, Loudonville, New York
Ex-Officio Members:
JACQUELINE M. GREBMEIER, University of Maryland, Solomons
MAHLON C. KENNICUTT II, Texas A&M University, College Station
TERRY WILSON, Ohio State University, Columbus
NRC Staff
CHRIS ELFRING, Board Director
LAURIE GELLER, Senior Program Officer
EDWARD DUNLEA, Senior Program Officer
LAUREN BROWN, Research Associate
AMANDA PURCELL, Senior Program Assistant
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Future Science Opportunities in Antarctica and the Southern Ocean
Preface
The purpose of science, in the broadest sense, is to expand the frontier of human
understanding. Antarctica and the Southern Ocean have always been, and remain, a
frontier – both an unexplored place and an untapped library of knowledge. In the past 50
years, scientists have made tremendous progress in Antarctic and Southern Ocean
science. But there are still many frontiers to explore in the coming decades.
Scientific inquiry in Antarctica and the Southern Ocean is helping to answer
questions that are important to understanding the planet: its history, its processes, and
how it is changing. The gas inside of a tiny bubble of air trapped in the Antarctic ice
miles below the surface can help us understand how the climate of the whole planet is
changing. A temperature sensor strapped to a seal swimming deep in the ocean under sea
ice in the Southern Ocean can ultimately help us understand how sea levels might rise in
Washington, DC. There are also mysteries to be solved about how the world and the
Universe work. Light from earliest seconds of the formation of the Universe that is
collected at telescopes at the South Pole can help unlock the mysteries of dark matter.
In this report, the Committee on Future Science Opportunities in Antarctica and
the Southern Ocean was asked to identify the important questions that will drive
scientific research in Antarctica and the Southern Ocean over the next two decades. This
report is intended to inform the work of the National Science Foundation’s Office of
Polar Programs and in particular a Blue Ribbon Panel that is reviewing the logistical
support of NSF’s U.S. Antarctic Program. In doing its work, the Committee has tried to
highlight important areas of research by encapsulating each in an overarching question.
The questions fall into two themes –observing and understanding global change and
fundamental discovery. Research support in the South requires considerable resources, so
the Committee has also attempted to identify key opportunities to be leveraged in the
effort to enhance scientific research in the Antarctic region. In looking forward, the
Committee has identified a need for new initiatives to further develop an observing
network and improve scientific modeling capabilities.
Through the process of gathering information for this report, the Committee heard
from many people in the Antarctic and Southern Ocean science community and we thank
everyone for their thoughts (see Acknowledgments section). The Committee relied upon
a large number of reports from the community, and we would like to thank the
community at large for all of their work in these efforts over the years. In addition, we
want to thank the Office of Polar Programs for providing information as we needed it,
and for being open to receiving advice. Finally, this report would not have been possible
without the dedication and contributions of the NRC staff: Edward Dunlea, Lauren
Brown, Amanda Purcell, and Chris Elfring.
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Future Science Opportunities in Antarctica and the Southern Ocean
viii Future Science Opportunities in Antarctica and the Southern Ocean
The Office of Polar Programs has a big job to do in supporting and enhancing scientific
research in Antarctica and the Southern Ocean, and it is very important for understanding
our world. We hope that this report offers advice to guide their efforts in the coming
decades.
Sincerely,
Warren M. Zapol
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Future Science Opportunities in Antarctica and the Southern Ocean
Acknowledgments
This report has been reviewed in draft form by individuals chosen for their diverse perspectives
and technical expertise, in accordance with procedures approved by the National Research
Council’s (NRC’s) Report Review Committee. The purpose of this independent review is to
provide candid and critical comments that will assist the institution in making its published report
as sound as possible and to ensure that the report meets institutional standards for objectivity,
evidence, and responsiveness to the study charge. The review comments and draft manuscript
remain confidential to protect the integrity of the deliberative process. We wish to thank the
following individuals for their review of this report:
Sridhar Anandakrishnan, Pennsylvania State University
Gerald T. Garvey, Los Alamos National Laboratory
Thom J. Hodgson, North Carolina State University
Gretchen E. Hofmann, University of California, Santa Barbara
Barbara Methe, The Institute for Genomic Research
Ellen S. Mosley-Thompson, Ohio State University
Claire L. Parkinson, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center
Steve Rintoul, CSIRO
Colin P. Summerhayes, University of Cambridge
Although the reviewers listed above have provided constructive comments and suggestions, they
were not asked to endorse the views of the workshop participants, nor did they see the final draft
of the report before its release. The review of this report was overseen by David Karl, University
of Hawaii, and Martha Haynes, Cornell University, appointed by the Division on Earth and Life
Studies and the Report Review Committee, who were responsible for making certain that an
independent examination of this report was carried out in accordance with institutional
procedures and that all review comments were carefully considered. Responsibility for the final
content of this report rests entirely with the authoring panel and the institution.
In addition, the Committee would like to thank in particular for their contributions during the
study process: Karl Erb, Scott Borg, Brian Stone, Kate Moran, Joel Parriott, John Calder, Waleed
Abdalati, Tom Wagner, Jerry Mullins, Larry Hothem, LCDR Michael Krause, Mahlon (Chuck)
Kennicutt, Meredith Hooper, John Goodge, Helen Fricker, Eric Rignot, Sarah Gille, Jim Bishop,
Donal Manahan, Alton Romig, Scott Doney, Allan Weatherwax, Lawson Brigham, and
Alexandra Isern. The Committee would also like to thank all of the online questionnaire
respondents who provided their thoughts on the future of science in Antarctica and the Southern
Ocean.
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