Future Impacts of Biotechnology on Agriculture, Food Production and Food Processing: A Delphi Survey

425 Pages·1999·25.7 MB·English

by  Dr. Klaus Menrad

TECHNOLOGY, INNOVATION and POLICY
Series of the Fraunhofer Institute
for Systems and Innovation Research (lSI)
Klaus Menrad · Demosthenes Agrafiotis
Christien M. Enzing · Louis Lemkow
Fabio Terragni
A Delphi Survey
Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg GmbH
TECHNOLOGY, INNOVATION and POLICY 10
Series of the Fraunhofer Institute
for Systems and Innovation Research (ISD
The following scientists have also participated in the project:
Jan Benedictus, StB TNO, Delft
Johanna Caceres, UAB, Barcelona
Monique de Leeuw, StB TNO, Delft
Bep Essenstam, StB TNO, Delft
Stefanie Giessler, FhG lSI, Karlsruhe
Dr. Barbel Hiising, FhG lSI, Karlsruhe
Christa Knorr, FhG lSI, Karlsruhe
Prof. Dr. Maria Angeles Liz6n, UAB, Barcelona
Anna Maina, NSPH, Athens
Panagoula Paschall, NSPH, Athens
Elena Recchia, CERISS, Milan
Elke Strauss, FhG lSI, Karlsruhe
Despina Vagianou-Angelaki, NSPH, Athens
K. Menrad ·D. Agrafiotis · C.M. Enzing
L. Lemkow · F. Terragni
Future Impacts
of Biotechnology
on Agriculture,
Food Production
and Food Processing
A Delphi Survey
Final report to the Commission of the European Union,
DGXII
With 49 Figures
and 139 Tables
Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg GmbH
Dr. K.laus Menrad
Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and
Innovation Research (ISI)
Breslauer StraBe 48
D-76139 Karlsruhe, Germany
Prof. Dr. Demosthenes Agrafiotis
National School of Public Health
Department of Sociology
196 Alexandras Avenue
GR-11521 Athens, Greece
Dr. Christien M. Enzing
TNO-STB
Schoemaker Straat 97
NL-2600 JA Delft, The Netherlands
Prof. Dr. Louis Lemkow
Universidad Autonoma de Barcelona
Editiei A
E-08193 Bellaterra, Spain
Prof. Dr. Fabio Terragni
CERISS
Via Andegari 18
I-20121 Milan, Italy
ISBN 978-3-7908-1215-2
Die Deutsche Bibliothek - CIP-Einheitsaufnahme
Future impacts of biotechnology on agriculture, food production and food processing: a Delphi sur
vey; final report to the Commission of the European Union. DG XII; with 139 tab1es 1 K. Menrad
(Technology, innovation and policy; 10)
ISBN 978-3-7908-1215-2 ISBN 978-3-642-52474-5 (eBook)
DOI 10.1007/978-3-642-52474-5
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Originallypublished by Physica-Verlag Heidelberg in 1999
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Table of contents page
List of tables ............................................................................................................. IX
List of figures ...................................................................................................... XVll
1. Introduction ........................................................................................................ 1
2. Concept and realization ..................................................................................... 5
2.1 Objectives .......................................................................................... 5
2.2 Description of the Delphi methodology ............................................ 5
2.3 Structure of the questionnaire ........................................................... 7
2.4 Development of the questionnaire .................................................. 12
2.5 Selection of experts ......................................................................... 18
2. 6 Realization of the survey ................................................................. 22
2.7 Returned questionnaires/response rate ............................................ 24
2.8 Statistical analysis ........................................................................... 29
3. Results in different countries .......................................................................... 31
3.1 Germany .......................................................................................... 31
3.2 Greece .............................................................................................. 55
3.3 Italy .................................................................................................. 64
3.4 The Netherlands .............................................................................. 85
3.5 Spain .............................................................................................. 113
4. Comparative analysis ..................................................................................... 133
4.1 Differences between countries ...................................................... 133
4.1.1 Degree of knowledge .................................................................... 133
4.1.2 Personal attitude ............................................................................ 134
4.1.3 Time of realization ........................................................................ 139
VI
4.1.4 Influential factors .......................................................................... 146
4.1.5 Importance ..................................................................................... 152
4.2 Differences between the expert groups ......................................... 159
5. Future impacts of biotechnology in the Agro-Food sector ......................... 163
5.1 Acceptance ofbiotechnology ........................................................ 163
5.1.1 Introduction ................................................................................... 163
5.1.2 Analysis of the statements in the domain "acceptance" ................ 164
5.1.3 General overview of the results .................................................... 172
5 .1.4 General trends and findings .......................................................... 181
5.2 Legal framework conditions ......................................................... 195
5.2.1 Introduction ................................................................................... 195
5.2.2 General overview of the results .................................................... 196
5.2.3 Expertise and attitudes towards norms and standards .................. 200
5.2.4 Controls on marketing of gene food products .............................. 203
5 .2. 5 Labelling, public participation and economic impacts ................. 212
5.2.6 Summary ........................................................................................ 216
5.3 Economic implications .................................................................. 218
5. 3.1 Introduction ................................................................................... 218
5.3.2 Relevance of the economic issues ................................................. 218
5.3.3 Marketaspects ............................................................................... 222
5.3.4 Price and cost effects of genetically engineered products ............ 236
5.3.5 Employment in the Agro-Food sector. .......................................... 237
5.3.6 Small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) ............................... 240
5.3.7 Branch-specific impacts of biotechnology ................................... 241
5.4 Environmental impacts .................................................................. 245
5.4.1 Biotechnological approaches to reduce environmental
problems in animal husbandry, plant production and food
industry .......................................................................................... 246
5.4.2 Scientific developments in plant production ................................ 252
5.4.3 Potential negative environmental impacts .................................... 258
5.4.4 Controversially discussed specific topics ..................................... 260
VII
5.4.5 Framework conditions ................................................................... 265
5.5 Health ............................................................................................ 272
5.5.1 Introduction ................................................................................... 272
5.5.2 Methodology, analysis design ....................................................... 273
5.5.3 Promoting health by nutrition ...................................................... ,279
5.5.4 Adverse health effects ................................................................... 281
5.5.5 Information on health effects of food ........................................... 284
5.6 Scientific and technological development .................................... 286
5 .6.1 Introduction ................................................................................... 286
5.6.2 Enzymes ........................................................................................ 287
5.6.3 Genetic engineering of polygenic traits in plants ......................... 295
5.6.4 Reproduction techniques and genetic engineering in farm
animals ........................................................................................... 303
5.6.5 Diagnostics and analytical methods .............................................. 313
5.6.6 Summary and conclusions ............................................................. 323
6. Conclusions and recommendations .............................................................. 327
6.1 Which scientific and technical developments can be
expected in future? ........................................................................ 327
6.2 Impacts on health of consumers and the environment .................. 331
6.3 Future acceptance of Agro-Food biotechnology .......................... 334
6.4 Regulatory issues ........................................................................... 336
6.5 Economic implications of Agro-Food biotechnology .................. 338
6.6 Suitability of the Delphi methodology .......................................... 340
6.7 Recommendations ......................................................................... 342
7. Summary ......................................................................................................... 349
8. Literature ........................................................................................................ 363
Annex: Questionnaire ofthe second round for Germany ................................. 379
List of tables page
Table 1.1: Co-operation in production of the final report ........................... .4
Table 2.1: Definition of the sub-categories of "degree of
knowledge" ................................................................................. 10
Table 2.2: Definition of the sub-categories of "personal attitude" ............. 10
Table 2.3: Definition of the sub-categories of "influential factors" ........... 11
Table 2.4: Definition of the sub-category "importance of the
statement" ................................................................................... 12
Table 2.5: Members of the national expert committee in Germany ........... 14
Table 2.6: Members of the national expert committee in Greece ............... 14
Table 2.7: Members of the national expert committee in Italy ................... 15
Table 2.8: Members of the national expert committee in the
Netherlands ................................................................................ 16
Table 2.9: Members of the national expert committee in Spain ................. 16
Table 2.10: Final structure of the expert panels in the involved
countries ..................................................................................... 21
Table 2.11: Response rates in the involved countries ................................... 24
Table 2.12: Structure of the expert panels in the five countries (after
the second round) ....................................................................... 27
Table 3.1: Overall degree of knowledge of all expert groups in
Germany ..................................................................................... 32
Table 3.2: List of "top 10" statements for "positive attitude" in
Germany ..................................................................................... 33
Table 3.3: List of "top 5" statements for "negative attitude" in
Germany ..................................................................................... 34
Table 3.4: Statements with no significant differences between the
expert groups in Germany .......................................................... 36
Table 3.5: Statements assessed (to a high proportion) as being "not
realized" in Germany ................................................................. 41
Table 3.6: Statements with significantly different time estimations
of consumers and critics in Germany ........................................ 42