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FUTURE DIMENSIONS OF
WORLD FOOD
AND
POPULATION
A Winrock International Study
Future Dimensions of
World Food and Population
edited by Richard G. Woods
Is it possible to feed those who now are hungry in
the world in addition to the billions of people who
will be born by the end of the century? Or are we
headed for an inevitable Malthusian catastrophe because
the task is impossible? What can developing countries
do to increase agricultural self-reliance? What popu-
lation dynamics accompany the transition from high birth
and death rates in developing countries to low birth and
death rates? What research can aid the struggle to
provide food to the world's masses?
These and other questions are explored by an array
of experts who participated in the Congressional
Roundtable on World Food and Population during 1979-80.
They offer this collection of papers in the spirit of
optimism about the future and about the U.S. role in
international development.
Richard G. Woods is a graduate of the University
of Tulsa and the University of Minnesota, where he
served on the faculty and as codirector of the Office
for Applied Social Science and the Future. He also
served on active duty with the U.S. Air Force as a man-
power management specialist and has held staff positions
with General Mills, Incorporated, and Whirlpool Corpora-
tion. Most recently he has been a legislative aide in
the U.S. Senate, specializing in such areas as science
and technology, nutrition, and world food and
population.
Published in cooperation with
Winrock International
FUTURE DIMENSIONS OF
WORLD FOOD
AND
POPULATION
edited by Richard G. Woods
i~ ~~o~;;~n:~~~up
LONDON AND NEW YORK
First published 1981 by Westview Press
Published 2018 by Routledge
52 Vanderbilt Avenue, New York, NY 10017
2 Park Square, Milton Park, Abingdon, Oxon OX14 4RN
Routledge is an imprint of the Taylor & Francis Group, an informa business
Copyright © 1981 by Taylor & Francis
All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reprinted or reproduced or utilised in
any form or by any electronic, mechanical, or other means, now known or hereafter
invented, including photocopying and recording, or in any information storage or
retrieval system, without permission in writing from the publishers.
Notice:
Product or corporate names may be trademarks or registered trademarks, and are used
only for identification and explanation without intent to infringe.
Library of Congress Catalog Card Number: 80-54240
ISBN 13: 978-0-367-01919-8 (hbk)
CONTENTS
Foreword -- Henry Bellman and Paul Simon ix
About the Authors .• xiii
Section 1. THE GLOBAL PROBLEM OF BALANCING
POPULATION AND FOOD
Introduction • • • • • • • 3
1. The Nature of the World Food and Population
Problem -- Maurice J. Williams 5
2. Recent Trends in World Food and Population
w. David Hopper • • • • • • • • • 35
3. The Worldwide Loss of Cropland
Lester R. Brown • • • • • 57
Section 2. THE POTENTIAL SOURCES OF FOOD
Introduction 99
4. Using Plants to Meet World Food Needs --
Norman E. Borlaug • • • • • • • 101
5. The Contribution of Livestock to the World
Protein Supply -- John A. Pino and
Andres Martinez • • • • • • • • • • • • • 183
vii
viii
6. Aquatic Animal Protein Food Resources
Actual and Potential
Carl J. Sindermann .•••••• 239
Section 3. THE PROCESS OF AGRICULTURAL DEVELOPMENT
Introduction • • 259
7. Agriculture in Transition Sayed A. Marei. 261
8. Conditions for More Rapid Agricultural
Development -- D. Gale Johnson • 281
9. Strategies for Rapid Agricultural Growth
A. T. Mosher • • . • • • • • • • • 299
Section 4. THE INFLUENCE OF TRADE AND INVESTMENT
Introduction • • • • • • • • • • • • 321
10. International Trade and Investment Policies
That Influence Agricultural and Economic
Development -- Ray A. Goldberg • • • • • 323
11. Implications of the Multilateral Trade
Negotiations for Agricultural Trade
Alonzo L. McDonald • • • • • . • • • 359
Section 5. THE CONSEQUENCES FOR AME:RICA
Introduction • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • 369
12. The Impact of International Development
on American Agriculture --·
Morton I. Sosland • • • • • •• 371
13. Meeting Energy Requirements in the Food
System -- Emery N. Castle • • 389
14. World Food and American Nationa.1 Security --
Steven Muller •••.•••••••••• 405
FOREWORD
The circumstances of human life around the world
have been changing so rapidly during recent years that
all of us, even those who make it their business to
keep informed, have difficulty in getting a secure
grasp on a reasonably accurate description of the
status guo, to say nothing of the more difficult and
more important vision of a likely, or even possible,
future. We have more information than ever before, but
our perceptions of problems, and therefore our needs
for information, are dynamic. This situation makes the
job of the public policymaker a frustrating one. No
one likes to make decisions which will affect the
future well-being of the country, and perhaps of the
world, without a solid understanding of what is being
accomplished. Legislators, among other decisionmakers,
often have learned how to decide under conditions of
uncertainty, but they privately wish for the time and
opportunity to make thoughtful decisions in the expec-
tation that they would be better decisions.
The Congress of the United States has talented
persons to help in gathering information and providing
analyses. The Congressional Research Service of the
Library of Congress provides a cadre of thoroughly
professional men and women who can function under time
pressure to provide specialized information to Senators
and Congressmen. A steady stream of evaluations of
existing legislation and programs is supplied by the
General Accounting Office in an effort to assist the
Congress in its deliberations. The Office of Techno-
logy Assessment offers special studies requested by
congressional committees with a particular emphasis
upon the long-term consequences of various policy
choices. Special studies of the fiscal impacts of
alternative decisions can be obtained from the Con-
gressional Budget Office. Yet all these dedicated
staff persons can but assist the Congress; they cannot
ix
