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First published in Singapore in 2019 by
ISEAS Publishing
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Singapore 119614
E-mail: [email protected]
Website: http://bookshop.iseas.edu.sg
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ISEAS Library Cataloguing-in-Publication Data
From Aquino II to Duterte (2010–2018) : Change, Continuity—and Rupture /
edited by Imelda Deinla & Björn Dressel.
1. Philippines—Politics and government—1986–
2. Philippines—Economic conditions—21st century.
3. Peace-building—Philippines.
4. Philippines—Foreign relations.
I. Deinla, Imelda, editor.
II. Dressel, Björn, editor
III. Title: Change, Continuity—and Rupture
DS686.614 F931 2019
ISBN 978-981-4843-28-7 (soft cover)
ISBN 978-981-4843-29-4 (ebook, PDF)
Cover photo: Photo entry by Mylene Tiondo, for the 2018 IslamNotPhobia Photo
Exhibit Project by Team Pakigsandurot of MSU-IIT.
Typeset by Superskill Graphics Pte Ltd
Printed in Singapore by Mainland Press Pte Ltd
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Contents
List of Tables vii
List of Figures viii
Acknowledgements xi
Acronyms and Glossary xiii
Contributors xxv
Introduction: From Aquino II to Duterte (2010–2018):
Change, Continuity—and Rupture 1
Imelda Deinla and Björn Dressel
PART I: POLITICS AND GOVERNANCE
1. The Rise of Illiberal Democracy in the Philippines:
Duterte’s Early Presidency 39
Mark R. Thompson
2. Finding Federalism in the Philippines: Federalism—
“The Centerpiece of My Campaign” 62
Steven Rood
3. On Crooked Ways and Straight Paths:
Assessing Anticorruption Governance of the Arroyo
and Aquino Governments 99
Kidjie Saguin
PART II: ECONOMIC GOVERNANCE
4. How Has the Economy Fared under the Duterte
Administration So Far? 127
Maria Socorro Gochoco-Bautista
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vi Contents
5. The Philippine Economy: Renewed Dynamism,
Old Challenges 145
Christopher Cabuay and Hal Hill
6. Competition Law and Policy in the Philippines:
A Role in Sustained and Inclusive Economic Growth 186
Rachel Burgess
PART III: PEACE PROCESS IN MINDANAO
7. Prospects for Lasting Peace in Mindanao:
Peacemaking and Peacebuilding under the Aquino and
Duterte Administrations 207
Matthew Stephens
8. Prospects for the Normalization Process in the Southern
Philippines: An Architecture of Uncertainty? 239
Georgi Engelbrecht
PART IV: INTERNATIONAL ENVIRONMENT
9. The Philippines and the South China Sea/West Philippine Sea
Conflict: Challenges and Prospects for Peace, Diplomacy and
External Defence Capability 265
Noel M. Morada
10. Fall from Grace, Descent from Power? Civil Society after
Philippine Democracy’s Lost Decade 285
Aries A. Arugay
Index 309
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List of Tables
I.1 Percentage Distribution of Families and Incomes,
by Modified Socioeconomic Class, 2009 17
2.1 Constitutional Provisions That Need Amending 69
2.2 Agreement on Federating the Regional Governments,
17 May–3 June 2002 69
2.3 Agreement on Changing to Federalism as Soon as Possible,
by Area, January 2004 70
2.4 Post-Election Party Switching in the House of
Representatives 76
2.5 Opinion Polls on Amending the Philippine Constitution
in 2014 and 2016 77
2.6 Opinion Polls on Federalism in 2009 and 2016 78
3.1 Critical Capacities for Corruption Control 104
5.1 Philippine Regional GDP, at Constant 2000 Prices in PhP 168
5.2 Top and Bottom Income Shares, the Philippines and
Neighbours 171
5.3 Education Enrolment and Survival Rates, the Philippines
and Neighbours 174
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List of Figures
I.1 Net Satisfaction Ratings, Presidents since 1984 14
I.2 Net Satisfaction Ratings for Rodrigo Duterte by Age:
September 2016–June 2018 19
I.3 Net Satisfaction Ratings for Rodrigo Duterte by Class:
September 2016–June 2018 20
I.4 Net Satisfaction Ratings for Rodrigo Duterte by Education:
September 2016–June 2018 21
2.1 The Anti-Charter Change Rally in 1997 66
2.2 Economic Density in the Philippines, 2007 81
2.3 Peace and Development Roadmap of the Duterte
Administration 87
5.1 Economic Growth, the Philippines and Neighbours, 2000–16 148
5.2 Agricultural Growth, the Philippines and Neighbours,
2000–16 149
5.3 Industrial Growth, the Philippines and Neighbours, 2000–16 150
5.4 Services Growth, the Philippines and Neighbours, 2000–16 151
5.5 Inflation, the Philippines and Neighbours, 2000–17 154
5.6 Exchange Rates, the Philippines and Neighbours, 2000–17 156
5.7 Stock Market Indices, the Philippines and Neighbours,
2013–17 157
5.8 Current Account Balances, the Philippines and Neighbours,
2000–16 159
5.9 Government Revenue, the Philippines and Neighbours,
2000–16 161
5.10 Fiscal Balances, the Philippines and Neighbours, 2000–16 162
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List of Figures ix
5.11 Remittances and BPO Revenues, 2000–17 163
5.12 Poverty Incidence, the Philippines and Neighbours,
1985–2016 170
5.13 Unemployed Rates, the Philippines and Neighbours,
2000–17 173
5.14 Ease of Doing Business, the Philippines and Neighbours,
2004–17 177
5.15 Logistics Performance Index, the Philippines and
Neighbours, 2007–16 179
5.16 Corruption Perception Index, the Philippines and
Neighbours, 2000–16 180
7.1 MILF Vertical and Horizontal Conflict Incidents, 2011–16 212
7.2 Annual Budget for PAMANA 214
7.3 Private Sector Investments in ARMM, 2012–16 218
7.4 Poverty Incidents among Population in ARMM, 2006–15 219
7.5 Violent Conflict Incidents and Deaths in the Proposed
Bangsamoro Territory, 2011–16 222
8.1 MILF Decommissioning in Context 258
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