Freight demand modeling : tools for public-sector decision making : summary of a conference, September 25-27, 2006, Keck Center of the National Academies, Washington, D.C

120 Pages·2008·2.23 MB·English

by  Hancock

P
CONFERENCE PROCEEDINGS 40
R
O
C
E
E
D
TRANSPORTATION RESEARCH BOARD I
N
500 Fifth Street, NW G
S
Washington, DC 20001
4
0
www.TRB.org
ADDRESS SERVICE REQUESTED
F
R
E
I
G
H
T
D
E
M
A
N
D
M
O
D
E
L
I
N
G
Freight Demand Modeling
|
T
o
o
l
s
f
o Tools for Public-Sector Decision Making
r
P
u
b
l
i
c
- SUMMARY OF A CONFERENCE
S
e
c
t
o
r
D
e
c
i
s
i
o
n
M
a
k
i
n
g
ISBN 978-0-309-11307-6

C O N F E R E N C E P R O C E E D I N G S 4 0
Freight Demand Modeling
Tools for Public-Sector Decision Making
Summary of a Conference
KATHLEEN L. HANCOCK, Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University
Rapporteur
September 25–27, 2006
Keck Center of the National Academies
Washington, D.C.
Sponsored by
Transportation Research Board
Federal Highway Administration
U. S. Army Corps of Engineers
Research and Innovative Technology Administration
Federal Railroad Administration
Washington, D.C.
2008
www.TRB.org
Transportation Research Board Conference Proceedings 40
ISSN 1073-1652
ISBN 978-0-309-11307-6
Subscriber Categories
IA planning and administration
VIII freight transportation (multimodal)
Transportation Research Board publications are available by ordering individual publications directly from
the TRB Business Office, through the Internet at www.TRB.org or national-academies.org/trb, or by annual
subscription through organizational or individual affiliation with TRB. Affiliates and library subscribers are
eligible for substantial discounts. For further information, contact the Transportation Research Board
Business Office, 500 Fifth Street, NW, Washington, DC 20001 (telephone [phone]; fax 202-334-
2519; or e-mail [email protected]).
Printed in the United States of America.
NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the National
Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the
National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the committee responsi-
ble for the project were chosen for their special competencies and with regard for appropriate balance.
This report has been reviewed by a group other than the authors according to the procedures approved
by a Report Review Committee consisting of members of the National Academy of Sciences, the National
Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine.
This project was sponsored by the Transportation Research Board, the Federal Highway Administration,
the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, the Research and Innovative Technology Administration, and the Federal
Railroad Administration.
Committee on Freight Demand Modeling: A Conference on Tools for Public-Sector Decision Making
J. Susie Lahsene, Port of Portland, Chair
William R. Black, Indiana University
David Cipra, Wisconsin Department of Transportation
James R. Gosnell, Southern California Association of Governments
John T. Gray, Union Pacific Railroad
J. Douglas Hunt, University of Calgary
Arnim H. Meyburg, Cornell University
Mark L. Schlappi, Maricopa Association of Governments
Huiwei Shen, Florida Department of Transportation
Lorant A. Tavasszy, TNO
John E. Tyworth, Pennsylvania State University
Liaison Representatives
Christina S. Casgar, Office of the Secretary, U.S. Department of Transportation
Ronald J. Duych, Research and Innovative Technology Administration
Scott Greene, Federal Railroad Administration
Bruce Lambert, U.S. Army Corps of Engineers
Rolf Schmitt, Federal Highway Administration
Tianjia Tang, Federal Highway Administration
Rapporteur
Kathleen L. Hancock, Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University
Transportation Research Board Staff
Mark Norman, Director, Technical Activities
Elaine King, Rail Transport Specialist
David Floyd, Senior Program Associate
TRB Publications Office
Norman Solomon, Senior Editor
Jennifer J. Weeks, Editorial Services Specialist
Mary McLaughlin, Proofreader
Juanita Green, Production Manager
Cover design by Beth Schlenoff, Beth Schlenoff Design.
Typesetting by Carol Levie, Grammarians.
The National Academy of Sciencesis a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society of distinguished
scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance of science and
technology and to their use for the general welfare. On the authority of the charter granted to it by
the Congress in 1863, the Academy has a mandate that requires it to advise the federal government
on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Ralph J. Cicerone is president of the National Academy of
Sciences.
The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter of the National
Academy of Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding engineers. It is autonomous in its
administration and in the selection of its members, sharing with the National Academy of Sciences
the responsibility for advising the federal government. The National Academy of Engineering also
sponsors engineering programs aimed at meeting national needs, encourages education and research,
and recognizes the superior achievements of engineers. Dr. Charles M. Vest is president of the
National Academy of Engineering.
The Institute of Medicinewas established in 1970 by the National Academy of Sciences to secure the
services of eminent members of appropriate professions in the examination of policy matters per-
taining to the health of the public. The Institute acts under the responsibility given to the National
Academy of Sciences by its congressional charter to be an adviser to the federal government and, on
its own initiative, to identify issues of medical care, research, and education. Dr. Harvey V. Fineberg
is president of the Institute of Medicine.
The National Research Councilwas organized by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to asso-
ciate the broad community of science and technology with the Academy’s purposes of furthering
knowledge and advising the federal government. Functioning in accordance with general policies
determined by the Academy, the Council has become the principal operating agency of both the
National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in providing services to the
government, the public, and the scientific and engineering communities. The Council is administered
jointly by both the Academies and the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Ralph J. Cicerone and Dr. Charles
M. Vest are chair and vice chair, respectively, of the National Research Council.
The Transportation Research Boardis one of six major divisions of the National Research Council.
The mission of the Transportation Research Board is to provide leadership in transportation innova-
tion and progress through research and information exchange, conducted within a setting that is
objective, interdisciplinary, and multimodal. The Board’s varied activities annually engage about
7,000 engineers, scientists, and other transportation researchers and practitioners from the public
and private sectors and academia, all of whom contribute their expertise in the public interest. The
program is supported by state transportation departments, federal agencies including the component
administrations of the U.S. Department of Transportation, and other organizations and individuals
interested in the development of transportation. www.TRB.org
www.national-academies.org

Contents
Preface.....................................................................................................................................................vii
Acronyms.................................................................................................................................................ix
PLENARY SESSION
Introduction, Policy Direction, and Megatrends........................................................................................3
J. Susie Lahsene, Tony Furst, and Paul Bingham
Characteristics of Effective Freight Models*...........................................................................................11
Mark A. Turnquist
The Importance of Understanding Freight..............................................................................................17
J. Richard Capka
CURRENT PRACTICE
Freight Modeling: State of the Practice ...................................................................................................21
Bruce Spear, Greg Giaimo, T. Randall Curlee, and Kevin Neels
Evaluation of Practice Today..................................................................................................................27
Rick Donnelly, Arnim H. Meyburg, Huiwei Shen, and Rob Leachman
Town Hall Discussion: Gaps and Shortcomings in Current Practice.......................................................36
John T. Gray
State of the Practice: Breakout Session....................................................................................................38
J. Douglas Hunt
EMERGING DEVELOPMENTS AND FUTURE NEEDS
Defining Future Needs............................................................................................................................41
Frank Southworth, Michael D. Meyer, and Michael Bronzini
Freight Modeling: An Overview of International Experiences*...............................................................47
Lorant Tavasszy
Discussion, Inge Vierth......................................................................................................................54
Oregon Generation 1 Land Use–Transport Economic Model Treatment of
Commercial Movements: Case Example*...............................................................................................56
J. Douglas Hunt and B. J. Gregor
Tour-Based Microsimulation of Urban Commercial Vehicle Movements in
Calgary, Alberta, Canada: Case Example*..............................................................................................61
J. Douglas Hunt
Discussion, Scott Drumm..................................................................................................................70
Ontario Commercial Vehicle Survey: Use of Geographic Information Systems for Data Collection,
Processing, Analysis, and Dissemination*...............................................................................................72
Selva Sureshan
State of the Art—What’s Needed? Breakout Session...............................................................................75
Michael D. Meyer
WHERE ARE WE GOING?
Industry Perspectives...............................................................................................................................81
Jim McClellan, Bob Costello, and Bob James
Next Steps in the Public Sector...............................................................................................................88
Rolf Schmitt, Jane Bachner, and Bruce Lambert
CLOSING COMMENTS
Key Observations and Suggested Areas for Research..............................................................................97
Michael D. Meyer
APPENDIX: FREIGHT MODEL USE MATRIX.................................................................................101
Participants...........................................................................................................................................104
* Peer-reviewed paper.
Preface
On September 25–27, 2006, the Transportation In planning the program and conducting the confer-
Research Board (TRB) convened the conference ence, the committee developed a matrix laying out
on Freight Demand Modeling: Tools for Public- important questions related to the types of public-sector
Sector Decision Making in Washington, D.C. The decisions that would (or already) benefit from an under-
conference—sponsored jointly by TRB, the Federal standing of freight demand and thus from the use of
Highway Administration, the U.S. Army Corps of some type of freight modeling. The purpose of the
Engineers, the Research and Innovative Technology matrix was to organize discussion about evaluation of
Administration, and the Federal Railroad Admini- currently used models and identification of needed
stration—brought together approximately 120 individ- improvements for these models. The committee used the
uals from across the freight transportation matrix to focus the program content and provided it to
communities, at national, state, regional, and local lev- the breakout groups to help guide their discussions. The
els and from the public and private sectors and acade- conference program covered the importance of under-
mia. The conference benefited from the contributions of standing freight, a summary of the state of the practice,
international speakers and participants from Canada, an evaluation of the practice today, a definition of future
the Netherlands, Sweden, Finland, Australia, and Chile. needs, emerging techniques in development and in the
The conference was designed to complement the Fed- state of the art, and perspectives on future trends in
eral Highway Administration’s work on the Freight freight demand and on where the discipline is going.
Model Improvement Program and focused on modeling The matrix, as it evolved throughout the conference, is
methodologies, applications of existing models at the provided in the Appendix.
national and local levels (including international exam- This conference summary report is based on the con-
ples), and related data needed to support modeling ference agenda and was prepared by Kathleen Hancock
efforts. The objectives were to engage members of the of Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University.
freight transportation community in examining current The presentations made in each session are summarized
modeling practice and identifying areas where improve- in the respective sections and summaries of the breakout
ment may be needed. To plan the conference and orga- sessions are provided. The following five papers pre-
nize and develop the conference program, TRB pared in connection with the conference that were peer
assembled a committee, appointed by the National reviewed by the committee are included:
Research Council. The conference committee was
chaired by J. Susie Lahsene, Manager, Transportation • Characteristics of Effective Freight Models, by
and Land Use Policy, Port of Portland, Oregon. The pro- Mark A. Turnquist;
gram was designed to maximize the exchange of infor- • Freight Modeling:An Overview of International
mation and perspectives among participants. Experiences, by Lorant Tavasszy;
vii
viii FREIGHT DEMAND MODELING: TOOLS FOR PUBLIC-SECTOR DECISION MAKING
• Oregon Generation 1 Land Use–Transport Eco- ments and draft manuscript remain confidential to pro-
nomic Model Treatment of Commercial Movements: tect the integrity of the deliberative process. TRB thanks
Case Example, by J. Douglas Hunt and B. J. Gregor; the following individuals for their review of this report:
• Tour-Based Microsimulation of Urban Commer- Michael S. Bronzini, George Mason University; John T.
cial Vehicle Movements in Calgary, Alberta, Canada: Gray, Union Pacific Railroad Company; Lorant A.
Case Example, by J. Douglas Hunt; and Tavasszy, TNO, the Netherlands; and Richard E.
• Ontario Commercial Vehicle Survey:Use of Geo- Walker, Portland Metro, Oregon.
graphic Information Systems for Data Collection, Pro- Although the reviewers listed above provided many
cessing, Analysis, and Dissemination, by Selva constructive comments and suggestions, they did not see
Sureshan. the final draft of the report before its release. The review
of this report was overseen by C. Michael Walton, Uni-
A list of conference attendees is also provided. versity of Texas at Austin. Appointed by the National
This report has been reviewed in draft form by indi- Research Council, he was responsible for making cer-
viduals chosen for their diverse perspectives and techni- tain that an independent examination of the report was
cal expertise, in accordance with procedures approved carried out in accordance with institutional procedures
by the National Research Council’s Report Review and that all review comments were carefully considered.
Committee. The purposes of this independent review
are to provide candid and critical comments that will Note:Many of the photographs and figures in this pub-
assist the institution in making the published report as lication have been converted from color to grayscale for
sound as possible and to ensure that the report meets printing. The electronic file, posted on the web at
institutional standards for objectivity, evidence, and onlinepubs.trb.org/onlinepubs/conf/CP40.pdf, retains
responsiveness to the project charge. The review com- the color versions of photographs and figures.