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1
FORETELLING WEATHER nn
BEINGADESCRIPTIONOFA NEWLY-DISCOVERED
LUNAR WEATHER-SYSTEM
S. M. SAXBY, E.N.
PBINCIPAL INSTBUCTOB OP NAVAL ENGINEERS, H.M. STBAM BESEBVE
LATE OP GONVILLB AND CAIUS COLLEGE, CAMBRIDGE
AUTHOB OP "CALCULATION AND PROJECTION OP THE SPHEKE""THE STUDYOPSTBIX
AND THE MARINE ENGINE" ETC.ETC.
LONDON
LONGMAN, GREEN, LONGMAN, AND ROBERTS
1862
In v . t r I
LONDON
PHIKTBD BY SPOTT1SWOODE AMD CO.
KEW-STREBT SQUARE
SAXBY'S WEATHER SYSTEM.
The untoward seasons of 1859 and 1860 originated specu
lations on the weather, which received additional attention
from the endeavours of the Board of Trade to turn them
to public benefit. The tempestuous period referred to,
resulting in losses upon the coast of so many of our sea
men, and a large amount of property, affected also the agri
cultural interests so widely (in the destruction of crops and
the hopes and expectations of the farmer), that "weather"
hasbecomeaninexhaiistibletopicwiththewholecommunity.
Even yet as we dash by rail through the festive valleys of
our fruitful island, the weatherforms the staple burden ofre
marks, and continued speculations on its probable changes or
continuance have proverbial sway over the movements ofthe
multitude; indeed, to consult the meteorological reportsand
" predictions" ofthe"Times"newspaperhasbecomeahabitas
prevalent as the prying into the state of the funds waswith
our forefathers. Nor can we touch upon the popular subject
ofthe day, such as the success ofthe ""Warrior," the welfare
ofthe " Great Eastern," or the building ofthePalace for the
coming Great Exhibition of 1862, without drifting quickly
into a commentuponthe seasonand its probable weather, and
the reliance to be placed on this or that "prognosticator."
Thus in our travels, the very commonplaceness ofthe subject
is a source ofmuch apparently innocent loquacity.
Such thenisthesubject ofweathertoEnglishmeningeneral,
A 2
butthere is also a large portion ofthe community who have a
deeper interest in the question, whose very livesareplaced in
jeopardy by such speculations, and the happiness ofwhose
whole families duringtheir entire earthly career, is involved
in thisapparently commonplace topic ofweather. It is true
there exist societies ofgood men ready, as farashumanmeans
and sympathies can soothe, to helpthe widow and orphans of
thosevictims who areyearly sacrificed on the altar ofpreju
dice on thesubjectofweather. Itisprejudicewhichexhausts
the resources of the National Lifeboat Institution, and the
funds of the charitable and excellent Shipwrecked Mariner's
Society; and itspeculiarnature is such that aremedy hasin
each succeeding yearbeen sought for with increasedanxiety
but in vain.
A still largerclassofpeople, whether they be merely plea
sure-seekers, or those in pursuit oftheir out-door avocations,
or those whose misfortune it is to be invalids, have also a
strong claim on men of sciencewho profess to be learned in
meteorology.
With all respect for the illustrious men whose wisdom in
other subjects has immortalised their names, their prejudices
on the subject ofweather seem to have been bequeathedby
them to posterity, and are even yet being upheld by living
philosophers on whose shoulders certain mantleshavefallen.
Their decreehasgone forth that the moon does not affect the
weather. To this we may attribute the strong prejudices
whichwould still hold ourjudgments in bondage. Butsurely
it is time to free ourselves from every trammel of false phi
losophy, and look the question in the face, boldly and with
independence; provideda sufficientbase is available on which
to found a more consistent theorem. Why should it be al
lowed for one moment that Science bars the door against
increase of knowledge respecting atmospheric disturbances,
while she opens itwidely with a welcometothose who search
into any other subject?
Hitherto the public thirst to possess a knowledge ofcoming
weather has tempted many an impostor to vend his spurious
"prognostics," the constant failures ofwhich still further pre
judice the whole question; hence the difficulty ofobtaining a
hearingforanysuggestionsfoundedonreallyhonestdeductions.
The weight ofopinionsdeliveredby men ofhighest calibre in
science may well have daunted the attempts and suppressed
the convictions of many a casual enquirer. Perhaps I am
among the first who,claiming tobe allowed theweight oflong
experience inmathematical and physicalscience,has ventured
to throw down the gauntlet, not, however, in a hostile spirit,
but in order ifpossible to elicit the truth. Thatmy supposed
discoveries were received at first with coldnessneed not sur
prise; but recent occurrences, one ofwhich will be now ex
plained, seem to have left me once more warm and vigorous
inthedeterminedpursuitofthis truth, believing, asIfirmlydo,
that so desirable a gift to mankind as a fairly developed wea
ther system is within our grasp. The occurrence intimated
above may be thus described. Hundreds of persons, nay,
many thousands, know that I have forabout two years been
allowed by the liberalityof the Hydrographic department of
the Admiralty to state my opinions ofcoming weather in the
respected "Nautical Magazine"(whichisalways open to sug
gestions for improvement in the condition ofsailors and nau
ticalscience). I hadaccordingly in Septemberlast announced,
among other predictions, that November 2nd to 5th instant
wouldprobablybeaperiodofunusualatmosphericdisturbance,
and in October I sentprinted billsalong the coast, especially
warningallagainst 14thNovember instantas aperiodatwhich
a violentCyclone(or hurricane)wouldmostprobablypassover
Great Britain fromthe southward and westward. Long willbe
remembered the heavy gale ofthe 2nd November. Happen
ing to be in London on the day before the 14th, and being
desirous ofoffering a public proofofthe sincerity ofmy con
victions,I, onthe13th,purposelyenteredtheunderwritingroom.
A 3
