Flood Risk Change: A Complexity Perspective

316 Pages·2022·6.469 MB·English

by  Andreas Paul Zischg

Flood Risk Change
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Flood Risk Change
A Complexity Perspective
Andreas Paul Zischg
University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
Elsevier
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To my family, Heike, Jule, and Linus
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Contents
Preface xi
1. Introduction 1
References 7
2. Key drivers of flood risk change 9
Principlesoffloodriskanalysis 11
Environmental changes 17
Environmental changesintheupstreamcatchment 17
Dams,reservoirs,andregulatedlakes 17
Landusechangesatcatchmentscale 19
Changes intheglacialandperiglacialenvironment 20
Naturalclimatevariability 20
Environmental changesinthefloodplain 21
Changes inrivermorphologyatreachscale 21
Climate changes 24
Socioeconomic changes 25
Coevolution ofkeydriversofchange 26
References 30
3. Disentangling drivers of change 37
Analysisandmodelingframework 38
Simulationsdrivenbyglobalandregionalclimatemodels 41
Sensitivityanalysisandscenario-neutralapproaches 43
Thestorylineapproach 44
Theretromodelexperimentapproach 46
Quantifyingtheisolated effectsofdriversofchange
withmodelexperiments 47
TheKanderriverdeviationof1714AD anditseffectson
hydrologicalchange 47
Analyzingthecumulative effectsofrivertrainingmeasures
onfloodimpacts 75
Assessing changestofloodhazardmapsduetoclimaticchanges 104
Changes insedimentsupplyfortorrential floods 108
vii
viii Contents
Analyzingspatiotemporaldynamicsoffluvialerosionand
riverbedaggradation 112
Analyzingchangesinfloodexposure 119
Analyzingtheeffectsoflanduseplanningonfloodexposure 125
Modelingtheeffectsofchangingvulnerabilityonfloodriskchange 128
Analyzingtheeffectsoffeedbackandtimelagsonflood
riskchange 134
Feedbackeffectsoffluvialerosionandriverbedaggradationon
floodriskchange 134
Feedbackeffectsoflandscapeshapingfloodeventson
hydrologicalchange 141
Feedbackeffectsoffloodeventsontheinitiationofflood
protectionprojects 146
Thesocietalmemoryeffectonhouseconstructionactivitiesin
flood-proneareas 148
Timelagsinthe implementationoffloodrisk management
measures 151
Otheraspectsthatarecontributingtothecomplexityofflood
riskmanagement 153
Acknowledgments 155
References 155
4. Rivers and floodplains as complex adaptive systems? 167
Characteristicsofcomplexsystems 167
Numerosityanddiversity 168
Orderanddisorder 169
Nestedstructure,modularity,andmultiplescales 169
Feedback 170
Nonlinearity 171
Nonequilibrium,fluctuations,episodicalchanges 172
Emergence,self-organization,self-regulation 172
Historyandmemory,pathdependency 173
Robustness 173
Adaptive behavior 174
Uncertainty 175
Long-term evolutionoffloodplainsseen fromacomplexsystems
perspective 175
Complexityoffloodriskchange 177
Trajectoriesandpathwaysoffloodriskevolution 178
Sensitivitytoclimaticchangesdshort-termfuture pathways 179
References 184
5. Modeling spatiotemporal dynamics of flood
risk change 187
Examplesoffloodriskchangeanalysis 188
Thetool“Floodmemory” 189
Contents ix
Thetool“Flooddamagepotential” 190
Thetool“Flooddamagesimulator” 198
Thetool“Floodriskdynamics”dfloodrisk changeatcentennial
scale 214
Thetool“Flooddynamics”dfloodimpactvariabilityathourly
scales 225
Decision-makingleadstotheemergenceofspatialpatternsof
floodriskchange 242
Monitoringfloodrisk change 247
Modeling frameworkforconsideringcomplexityinthe
analysisoffloodriskchange 247
Developmentofcoupledcomponentmodels 251
Modelcoupler 251
Developmentofmodelcomponents 255
Datasources 258
Perspectives ofcoupledcomponent modelsinhydrology 263
Context forhydrology 263
Hydrologyasa context 263
Feedbacks:unifyingtop-downandbottom-upmodelingapproaches 264
Acknowledgments 264
References 264
6. Confronting complexity in flood risk management 273
A newperspectiveonfloodrisks 273
LessonslearntfromtheKanderriverdeviation 279
Leversforcontrolling floodriskinthelongterm 283
Implicationsforfloodriskresearchandmanagement 286
References 292
Index 297