Table Of ContentFLOOD HYDROLOGY
FLOOD
HYDROLOGY
Proceedings of the International Symposium
on Flood Frequency and Risk Analyses,
14-17 May 1986, Louisiana State University, Baton Rouge, U.S.A.
Edited by
WAY P. SINGH
Department of Civil Engineering,
Louisiana State University, Baton Rouge, U.S.A.
t,
D. REIDEL PUBLISHING COMPANY
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Library 01 Congress CataIogiog in Publitation Data
International Symposium on Hood Frequency and Risk Analyses (1986:
Louisiana State University, Baton Rouge)
Hood hydrology.
Includes indexes.
1. Hoods-Congresses. I. Singh, V. P. (Vijay P.) II. Title.
GB1399.I58 1986a 551.48'9 87-20620
ISBN-13: 978-94-010-8255-6 e-ISBN-13: 978-94-009-3957-8
DOl: 10.1007/978-94-009-3957-8
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PREFACE
Floods constitute a persistent and serious problem throughout
the United States and many other parts of the world. They are
responsible for losses amounting to billions of dollars and scores of
deaths annually. Virtually all parts of the nation--coastal, moun
tainous and rural--are affected by them. Two aspects of the problem
of flooding that have long been topics of scientific inquiry are
flood frequency and risk analyses. Many new, even improved, tech
niques have recently been developed for performing these analyses.
Nevertheless, actual experience points out that the frequency of say
a 100-year flood, in lieu of being encountered on the average once in
one hundred years, may be as little as once in 25 years. It is
therefore appropriate to pause and ask where we are, where we are
going and where we ought to be going with regard to the technology of
flood frequency and risk analyses. One way to address these ques
tions is to provide a forum where people from all quarters of the
world can assemble, discuss and share their experience and expertise
pertaining to flood frequency and risk analyses. This is what con
stituted the motivation for organizing the International Symposium on
Flood Frequency and Risk Analyses held May 14-17, 1986, at Louisiana
State University, Baton Rouge, Louisiana.
The objectives of this symposium were therefore (1) to assess
the current state of the art of flood frequency and risk analyses,
(2) to demonstrate applicability of flood frequency and risk models,
(3) to establish complementary aspects of seemingly different models,
(4) to enhance interdisciplinary interaction, (5) to discuss practice
of flood frequency and risk analyses technology by federal agencies
in the U.S., (6) to discuss research needs in frequency and risk
analyses, and (7) to determine directions for further research.
We received an overwhelming response to our call for papers. It
was indeed a difficult task to select amongst the many excellent
papers that were submitted, and we regret that we could not include
all of them. The sole criterion for selection of a paper was its
merit in relation to Symposium objectives. The subject matter of the
Symposium was divided into 20 major topics encompassing virtually all
facets of flood frequency and risk analyses. Each topic comprised of
an invited state-of-the-art paper and a number of contributed papers.
These contributions blended naturally to evolve a synthesized body of
knowledge on that topic. Extended abstracts of all the invited and
contributed papers were assembled in a pre-Symposium proceedings
volume. This helped stimulate discussion and exchange of ideas
during the Symposium.
The papers presented at the Symposium were refereed in a manner
similar to that employed for publishing a journal article. As a
result, many papers did not pass the review and were therefore elimi
nated from inclusion in the final proceedings. The papers contained
in this book, FLOOD HYDROLOGY, represent one part of the Symposium
v
PREFACE
contributions. The other parts are embodied in three separate books,
HYDROLOGIC FREQUENCY MODELING, REGIONAL FLOOD FREQUENCY ANALYSIS, and
APPLICATION OF FREQUENCY AND RISK IN WATER RESOURCES, which are being
published simultaneously. Arrangement of these books under four dif
ferent titles was a natural consequence of the diversity of technical
material discussed in the papers. These books can be treated almost
independently, although some overlap does exist between them.
This book contains seven sections encompassing major hydrologic
aspects of flood control and protection. Each section starts usually
with an invited state-of-the-art paper, followed by contributed
papers. Beginning with an assessment of hydrologic modeling and
limitations, and a future flood research agenda for the United
States, the papers go on to discuss hydrology of floods, urban and
coastal flooding, streamflow simulation and forecasting, flood
control and protection, and flood control programs.
The book will of of interest to researchers as well as those
engaged in practice of Civil Engineering, Agricultural Engineering,
Hydrology, Water Resources, Earth Resources, Forestry and Environ
mental Sciences. The graduate students as well as those wishing to
conduct research in flood hydrology will find this book to be of
particular value.
I wish to take this opportunity to express my sincere apprecia
tion to all the members of the Organizing and Advisory Committees,
and the Louisiana State University administration for their generous
and timely help in the organization of the Symposium. A lack of
space does not allow me to list all of them by name here. Numerous
other people contributed to the Symposium in one way or another. The
authors, including the invited keynote speakers, contributed to the
Symposium technically and this book is a result of their efforts.
The session chairmen administered the sessions in a positive and
professional manner. The referees took time out from their busy
schedules and reviewed the papers. Graduate students assisted in
smooth conduct of the sessions. lowe my sincere gratitude to all of
these individuals.
If the success of a Symposium is measured in terms of the
quality of participants and presentations then most people would
agree that this was a very successful Symposium. A very large number
of internationally well-known people, who have long been recognized
for their contributions and have long been at the forefront of
hydrologic research, came to participate in the Symposium. More than
35 countries, covering the five continents and most of the countries
of the world active in hydrologic research, were represented. It is
hoped that long and productive personal associations will develop as
a result of this Symposium.
March 1987 Vijay P. Singh
Baton Rouge, Louisiana Symposium Director
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
The International Symposium on Flood Frequency and Risk Analyses
was sponsored and co-sponsored by a number of organizations. The
sponsors provided financial support without which the Symposium might
not have come to fruition. Their financial support is gratefully
acknowledged. The co-sponsors extended their help in announcing the
Symposium through their journals, transactions, newsletters or
magazines. This publicity helped with attendance at the Symposium,
and is gratefully acknowledged. The following is a list of Symposium
sponsors and co-sponsors.
SYMPOSIUM SPONSORS
Louisiana State University
Department of Civil Engineering
Louisiana Water Resources Research Institute
National Science Foundation
U.S. Army Research Office
U.S. Geological Survey, Louisiana District, Baton Rouge
Woodward-Clyde Consultants, Baton Rouge
SYMPOSIUM CO-SPONSORS
American Geographical Society
American Geophysical Union
American Meteorological Society
American Statistical Association
American Society of Agricultural Engineers
American Society of Civil Engineers
American Water Resources Association
Association of American Geographers
Association of State Floodplain Managers
International Association for Hydraulic Research
International Association of Hydrological Sciences
International Association of Theoretical and Applied Limnology
International Commission on Irrigation and Drainage
International Geographical Union
International Water Resources Association
National Wildlife Federation
North American Lake Management Society
Pan American Institute of Geography
Society for Risk Analysis
Soil Conservation Society of America
vii
TABLE OF CONTENTS
PREFACE v
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS vii
SECTION 1 HYDROLOGY OF FLOODS
Current State of Hydrologic Modeling and its
Limitations
by A. Prakash • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • •
A Future Flood Research Agenda for the United
States
by S. A. Changnon, Jr •••••••• 17
The UK Flood Studies Report: Continuing
Responsibilities and Research Needs
by M. Beran •• • • • • • • • • 27
More Frequent Flooding in Louisiana: Climatic
Variability?
by R. A. Muller and J. D. McLaughlin 41
Floods of March 1982, Fort Wayne, Indiana
by D. R. Glatfelter and E. H. Chin • 57
SECTION 2 DETERMINISTIC STREAMFLOW SIMULATION
Flood Estimation for an Ungaged Floodplain
by J. S. Wei, F. C. Wang and J. A. Amft 69
Diffusive Flood Waves in Large Rivers
by W. H. Hager and J. J. Droux • 81
A Rainfall-Runoff Model for Agricultural Drainage
in the Experimental Station of the Three-River
Plain in Heilongjiang Province
by Y. Peishu and L. Yubang • • • • • • • • • • • •• 97
Applications of Geomorphologic Theory
to Ungauged Uatersheds in Sinai
by M. N. Allam ••••••••• 107
Statistical Methods of Determining Typical
Winter and Summer Hydrographs for Ungauged
Watersheds
by A. Ciepielowski • • • 117
x TABLE OF CONfENfS
Aspects of Flood Level Computations
by H. J. M. Ogink, J. G. Grijsen and
J. H. A. Wijbenga ••••• 125
SECTION 3 STOCHASTIC STREAMFLOW SIMULATION
A Shot-noise aodel of Streamflow
by P. Todorovic and D. A. Woolhiser 143
Response Characteristics of Two Tropical River
Basins
by M. Hasebe and M. Hino • • • • • • 165
Synthetic Flow Generation with Stochastic
Models
by L. H. Wijayaratne and P. C. Chan 175
SECTION 4 STREAMFLOW FORECASTING
Reduction of Uncertainties in the Flood
Estimation in the Czechoslovak Section
of Danube River
by B. Minarik and K. Martinka 187
Real-Time Flood Forecasting in the River
Section with Ungaged Tributaries
by B. Minarik • • • • • 197
Flood Forecasting Model for Citanduy
River Basin
by K. N. lIutreja, Y. Au-Yeung and Ir. l1artono • • •• 211
SECTION 5 COASTAL AND URBAN FLOODING
Uncertainty and Confidence in Estimating
Flood Frequencies from Hurricanes and
Northeasters at Ungaged Coast Locations -
A New Methodology
by S. Dendrou and B. Dendrou .•• 221
Stage-Frequency Curves for Flooding Due
to Wave Overtopping of Seawalls
by T. A. Hardy •••••.•••• 231
Spatial and Temporal Factors Controlling
Overtopping of Coastal Ridges
by W. F. Tanner •..••••••• 241
TABLE OF CONTENTS xi
Statistical Analysis of Storm Tide
Elevations for New England Coastal
Communities
by Y. J. Tsai 249
Errors Due to Linearization in Tidal
Propagation
by P. D. Scarlatos and V. P. Singh 257
SECTION 6 FLOOD MANAGEMENT
Flood Management in the Netherlands from the
Middle Ages to the Space Era
by J. W. van der Made 271
Optimizing Flood Protection for Cypress Creek,
Harris County, Texas
by P. C. Wilson, Jr., and R. Pudlewski 281
Effect of Embanking on River and Sea Floods
by A. Volker • • • • • • • • • • • • •• 289
A Model for the Operation of Spillway Gates
in Pluvial Floods
by L. Arrau • • • • • •• 299
Flood Control with the Use of an
Irrigation Storage Reservoir
by E. Kaliski and L. Arrau • 309
St. Helens Blast Related Sedimentation
Modeling and Planning Realities in the
Toutle/Cowlitz/Columbia River System
by W. A. Rabiega • • • • • • • 325
Cost-Benefit Analysis of a Proposed
Storm Surge Barrier on the River
ScheIdt (Belgium)
by J. Berlamont, M. Sas and P. Van Rompuy 333
SECTION 7 FLOOD CONTROL PROGRAMS
Flood Plain Management - The NZ Experience
by J. H. Lawrence and P. Koutsos 347
A Study for Real Time Operation of Four
Flood Reservoirs
by A. Van Der Beken, G. L. Vandewiele,
J. Marien, I. Terrens and G. De Schrijver 369
xii TABLE OF CONTENTS
A Multi-purpose Flood Control and Irrigation
Reservoir on a Tributary of the Adige River
(Italy)
by P. Mazzalai and L. Eccher •• 379
A Catastrophic Flood and its Control in
August 1963 on Haihe River Basin of
China
by H. M. Bao and L. D. Ke 389
Centrifuge Modeling of River Bank Failures
Due to Seepage Flow
by O. Kusakabe, Y. Okumura and A. Nakase 399
The Brazilian Electric Sector Experience
in Flood Control
by A. M. Vieira, P. R. H. Sales and
L. A. L. Barretto 409
SUBJECT INDEX 419
AUTHOR INDEX • 423
