Table Of ContentFive Insights for Avoiding
Global Collapse
Five Insights for Avoiding
Global Collapse
What a 50-Year-Old Model of the World
Taught Me About a Way Forward for Us Today
Gaya Herrington
Basel•Beijing•Wuhan•Barcelona•Belgrade•NoviSad•Cluj•Manchester
Author
GayaHerrington
Vice-PresidentESGResearch,
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WashingtonDC,USA
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Forcitationpurposes,citeasindicatedbelow:
Herrington,Gaya.2022.FiveInsightsforAvoidingGlobalCollapse:Whata50-Year-OldModeloftheWorld
TaughtMeAboutaWayForwardforUsToday. Basel: MDPI,PageRange.
ISBN978-3-0365-3722-1(Hbk)
ISBN978-3-0365-3721-4(PDF)
doi: 10.3390/books978-3-0365-3721-4
© 2022 by the authors. Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland. This Book is Open Access and
distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution NonCommercial
NoDerivatives(CCBY-NC-ND)license(https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/).
Dedication
To environmental and social activists around the world. I have been thanked for my courage
and persistence in my work on The Limits to Growth. I am grateful for these praises, but I do
not deserve them. Although research and writing are excruciating and always thrice the amount
of effort I thought they would be, doing so never made me feel unsafe. Environmental and
human rights activists make enormous sacrifices protecting those with little or no voice. Each
week, an average of four activists pay for this with their life, a third of which are indigenous
people. Thenumberofmurdershasbeenincreasingforalmosttwodecades. Thisisahumblesalute
tothebraveryofalltheseenvironmentalandsocialdefenders.Youaretheunsungheroesofourtime.
GayaHerrington
Foreword
It is my pleasure to congratulate Gaya Herrington on her excellent research. Since last year,
Gaya’sworkhasoftenbeencharacterizedinthemediaasavalidationofTheLimitstoGrowth. More
than anything, I personally find her research a testimony of what happens when scientists let their
curiosityguidetheirwork. Inthissituation,manyfindmeaninginservitudetotheworld,likewhen
myfriendsandIwroteTheLimitstoGrowth.
Over the past five decades, I have witnessed the waves of debate that The Limits to Growth has
stirred. Thevoicesofsupportandthechoirsofcriticism. Gayahasbroughtsomeordertothisdebate
by doing the only thing that is scientifically rigorous when one wants to assess the scenarios in The
Limits to Growth books for their validity, and most importantly, for their usefulness in informing us
aboutpossibleactualdevelopmentsovertheensuingdecades. ShedidherresearchonTheLimitsto
Growth,soastounderstandthemodelingtechniqueandtobeabletointerpretitsoutputsandthen
comparedthescenariosagainstreal-worlddata.
After Gaya’s research was published, she continued to follow her curiosity and delved deeper
intowhatherconclusionsmeanforourcommonquestforhigherglobalwell-being.Because,asGaya
highlights in her work, the fact that there has not yet been a global collapse due to environmental
reasonsdoesnotmeanthatthefutureisrosy.Wearestartingtoseeastagnationinhumanwell-being.
My expectation is that this stagnation will turn into a decline unless there is truly extraordinary
collectiveactiontobreakfrombusinessasusual,aswellasdecisionmakingasusual.
My intense wish is that Gaya’s study is used to accelerate what needs to be done: bring down
the human footprint, notably by reducing the climate footprint in the world of the rich, where
the minority of the 1.5 billion people out of the 8 billion global population cause the majority of
the greenhouse gas emissions. This reduction in our footprint, although unachievable without the
rich nations sharply reducing their material consumption, does not need to be a reduction in our
well-being. As Gaya beautifully describes in this book, it is in fact an opportunity for humanity to
achievegreaterwell-being,inawaythatcanlast. Toletgoofanunsatisfyingandultimatelydoomed
pursuitofcontinuousgrowthatallcostsandfindtruepurposeinhelpingpeopleandallotherparts
ofnaturethrive. We’llwanttolistentohermessage.
JørgenRanders
ProfessorEmeritusofclimatestrategyattheBINorwegianBusinessSchool
andco-authorofTheLimitstoGrowth
Praise for Five Insights for Avoiding Global Collapse
This book by a young courageous thinker is a call to action to her peers to shift from the
competitive, conflict-ridden, and unsustainable overconsumption culture, towards collaborative
mutually enriching relational culture that aligns to what it means to be human. The future of our
planetdependsontheabilityofeachofustoembraceourinterdependenceononeanotherwithinthe
weboflifewithinwhichweareinextricablylinked. Thisbookisamust-readforallthosesearching
forhowtopromoteafuturewecanbeproudtobequeathtoourChildren’sChildren.
MamphelaRamphele
Ph.D.Co-PresidentoftheClubofRome
This clear-eyed, scientifically based yet extremely readable book is essential reading. Read it
to learn in careful and systematic detail why the relentless pursuit of growth of monetary incomes,
without considering its patterns and ignoring its inequalities, is leading humanity headlong into
disaster. Butreaditalsoforhope: tolearnthatchangingcourseispossible. Therearefeasibleways
tofulfillhumanneedsequitably,withrespectfornatureandtheplanet,whichwouldsavetheplanet,
transformsocieties,andenrichallofus.
JayatiGhosh
Ph.D.ProfessorofEconomicsattheUniversityofMassachusettsAmherst,andmemberofthe
UnitedNationsSecretary-General’sHigh-LevelAdvisoryBoardofEffectiveMultilateralism
Researchersoverthelast50yearshaveputtremendouseffortintofindingexcusesfornottaking
planetary constraints seriously. Gaya Herrington discusses their common misconceptions, but also
providesguidanceonhowtowrestlewiththerealityoflivingonamateriallyconstrainedplanned.
She shows that there is only upside in embracing this reality: it helps you navigate future rapids
moreeffectively. StudyGaya’scontributionbecauseitmayrescueyoufromtheplanetaryblindness
yourprofessionaleducationmostlikelyfedyou,oratleastcondoned.
MathisWackernagel
Ph.D.FounderandPresidentoftheGlobalFootprintNetwork
Gaya Herrington’s research shows in hard numbers what many have felt intuitively: that we
are experiencing a hinge point in human history, and the hour is late to take action. With a call for
humanitytoembraceresponsibility,Gayaisaskingformuch. Butsheisleadingbyexample.
HunterLovins
J.D.PresidentofNaturalCapitalismSolutions
This book is for anyone longing to understand how the personal connects with the big-picture
systemsthathavebroughtustothisperilouspointinourhumanstory. Inavoicethatisengaging,
honest, and often moving, Gaya Herrington weaves together science with insights and anecdotes
that bring her potent conclusions to life. She describes what is at stake, but also what we stand to
gainbygoingbeyondgrowthandtransformingantiquatedsystems: aworldwewanttolivein.
JuliaKim
Ph.D.ProgramDirector,GrossNationalHappinessCentreBhutan
