Fighting for reliable evidence

594 Pages·2013·2.476 MB·English

by  Gueron, Judith M., Rolston, Howard

FIGHTING FOR
RELIABLE EVIDENCE

FIGHTING FOR
RELIABLE EVIDENCE
Judith M. Gueron
and
Howard Rolston
Russell Sage Foundation • New York
The Russell Sage Foundation
The Russell Sage Foundation, one of the oldest of America’s general purpose foundations, was
established in 1907 by Mrs. Margaret Olivia Sage for “the improvement of social and living
conditions in the United States.” The Foundation seeks to fulfill this mandate by fostering the
development and dissemination of knowledge about the country’s political, social, and eco-
nomic problems. While the Foundation endeavors to assure the accuracy and objectivity of
each book it publishes, the conclusions and interpretations in Russell Sage Foundation publica-
tions are those of the authors and not of the Foundation, its Trustees, or its staff. Publication by
Russell Sage, therefore, does not imply Foundation endorsement.
BOARD OF TRUSTEES
Robert E. Denham, Esq., Chair
Kenneth D. Brody Lawrence F. Katz Claude M. Steele
Karen S. Cook Nicholas Lemann Shelley E. Taylor
W. Bowman Cutter III Sara S. McLanahan Richard H. Thaler
John A. Ferejohn Nancy L. Rosenblum Eric Wanner
Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data
Gueron, Judith M.
Fighting for reliable evidence / Judith M. Gueron and Howard Rolston.
pages cm
Includes bibliographical references and index.
ISBN 978-0-87154-493-3 (pbk. : alk. paper) — ISBN 978-1-61044-800-0 (ebook)
1. Social service—United States—Evaluation. 2. Social service—Research—United
States. 3. Evaluation research (Social action programs)—United States. I. Rolston,
Howard. II. Title.
HV91.G87 2013
361.973072—dc23 2013005099
Copyright © 2013 by Russell Sage Foundation. All rights reserved. Printed in the United
States of America. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system,
or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording,
or otherwise, without the prior written permission of the publisher.
Reproduction by the United States Government in whole or in part is permitted for any
purpose.
The paper used in this publication meets the minimum requirements of American National
Standard for Information Sciences—Permanence of Paper for Printed Library Materials. ANSI
Z39.48-1992.
RUSSELL SAGE FOUNDATION
112 East 64th Street, New York, New York 10065
10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1
CONTENTS
Tables and Figures vii
About the Authors ix
Preface xi
Acknowledgments and Dedication xv
Chapter 1 Introduction: The Issue, the Method, and the
Story in Brief 1
Chapter 2 They Said It Couldn’t Be Done: The National
Supported Work Demonstration 22
Chapter 3 Bridge to the 1980s: Implementing Random
Assignment in Work Incentive Program Offices
and Testing a Job Guarantee 66
Chapter 4 Inventing a New Paradigm: The States as
Laboratories 88
Chapter 5 The Reagan Revolution and Research Capacity
Within the Department of Health and Human
Services: From Near Destruction to New Growth 141
Chapter 6 The Work/Welfare Demonstration: Lessons About
Programs, Research, and Dissemination 181
Chapter 7 Waiver Evaluations: How Random Assignment
Evaluation Came to Be the Standard for Approval 217
Chapter 8 Expanding the Agenda: The Role of
Basic Education 262
vi CONTENTS
Chapter 9 The JOBS Evaluation: Cumulative Evidence on
Basic Education Versus Work First 311
Chapter 10 E xpanding the Agenda II: Three Experiments to
Make Work Pay 354
Chapter 11 The End of Our Story: Welfare Reform Recedes
from the Spotlight of Random Assignment
Program Evaluation 388
Chapter 12 Conclusion and Lessons 423
Coda Random Assignment Takes Center Stage 455
Appendix 473
Abbreviations 479
Notes 481
Note on Sources 537
References 539
Index 553
TABLES AND FIGURES
Table 2.1 Timeline of the National Supported Work 36
Demonstration and Related Events
Table 2.2 Percentage Employed Some Time Between 54
Nineteenth and Twenty-Seventh Month after
Random Assignment in Supported Work
Table 3.1 Timeline of the WIN Labs and Related Events 70
Table 4.1 Timeline of the Work/Welfare Demonstration 96
and Related Events
Table 4.2 Key Characteristics of Projects in the Work/ 124
Welfare Demonstration
Table 5.1 Institutional Home of Howard Rolston 142
Within HHS, 1978 to 2004
Table 5.2 Timeline of the Rebuilding of HHS Research 143
Capacity and Related Events
Table 7.1 Timeline of the Welfare Waiver Story and 218
Related Events
Table 8.1 MDRC Welfare Experiments, by Priority 275
Question, 1986 to 2000
Table 8.2 Timeline of California GAIN Evaluation and 279
Related Events
Table 8.3 GAIN’s Impact on Average Earnings of Single 289
Mothers
Table 8.4 Timeline of Florida Project Independence 299
Evaluation and Related Events
Table 9.1 Timeline of JOBS Evaluation Design Planning 312
and Related Events
viii TABLES AND FIGURES
Table 10.1 Timeline of Earnings Supplement Experiments 357
and Related Events
Table 10.2 Trade-Off in Benefits from Two Reform 385
Strategies
Table 11.1 Timeline of the Post-TANF Story and Related 390
Events
Table 11.2 Six Major Features of AFDC and TANF 397
Figure 1.1 Factors Affecting the Impacts of Welfare 9
Reform Programs
Figure 6.1 Trends in Average Quarterly Employment 185
Rates and AFDC Receipt, Arkansas and
Baltimore
ABOUT THE AUTHORS
Judith M. Gueron is scholar in residence and President Emerita at MDRC.
howard rolston is principal associate at Abt associates.