Table Of ContentFertility, Mortality and Migration in SubSaharan Africa
This page intentionally left blank
Fertility, Mortality and
Migration in SubSaharan
Africa
The Case of Ovamboland in
North Namibia, 1925–90
Veijo Notkola
Head, Interview and Research Services
Statistics Finland
and
Harri Siiskonen
Professor
University of Joensuu
Finland
First published in Great Britain 2000 by
MACMILLAN PRESS LTD
Houndmills, Basingstoke, Hampshire RG21 6XS and London
Companies and representatives throughout the world
Acatalogue record for this book is available from the British Library.
ISBN 978-1-349-41735-3 ISBN 978-0-333-98134-4 (eBook)
DOI 10.1057/9780333981344
First published in the United States of America 2000 by
ST. MARTIN’S PRESS, INC.,
Scholarly and Reference Division,
175 Fifth Avenue, New York, N.Y. 10010
Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data
Notkola, Veijo
Fertility, mortality and migration in subsaharan Africa : the case of Ovamboland in
north Namibia, 1925–90 / Veijo Notkola and Harri Siiskonen.
p. cm.
Includes bibliographical references and index.
1. Owambo (Namibia)—Population—History. 2. Owambo (Namibia)–
–Statistics, Vital—History. 3. Ovambo (African people)—Population—History.
4. Africa—Sub-Saharan—Population—History. 5. Africa, Sub-Saharan–
–Statistics, Vital—History. I. Siiskonen, Harri. II. Title
HB3664.2 .O83 2000
304.6'096881—dc21
99–048174
©Veijo Notkola and Harri Siiskonen 2000
All rights reserved. No reproduction, copy or transmission of this publication may be made
without written permission.
No paragraph of this publication may be reproduced, copied or transmitted save with written
permission or in accordance with the provisions of the Copyright, Designs and Patents Act
1988, or under the terms of any licence permitting limited copying issued by the Copyright
Licensing Agency, 90 Tottenham Court Road, London W1P0LP.
Any person who does any unauthorised act in relation to this publication may be liable to
criminal prosecution and civil claims for damages.
The authors have asserted their rights to be identified as the authors of this work in accordance
with the Copyright, Designs and Patents Act 1988.
This book is printed on paper suitable for recycling and made from fully managed and sustained
forest sources.
10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1
09 08 07 06 05 04 03 02 01 00
Contents
List of Figures vii
List of Tables ix
List of Acronyms xi
Preface xii
1 Introduction 1
2 Ovamboland: Ecology, history, economy, and culture 7
2.1 The ecological setting 7
2.2 Pre-colonial social and economic formations 9
2.3 Ovamboland during the colonial era 10
3 Population development in Namibia 17
3.1 Fertility 18
3.2 Mortality 21
3.3 Migration 23
4 Christianization in Ovamboland 26
4.1 The Lutheran Mission 26
4.2 The Roman Catholic and Anglican Missions 29
5 Research area 31
5.1 The selection of the sample parishes 31
5.2 Introduction to the sample parishes 34
6 Materials and methods 40
6.1 Data sources 40
6.2 Methods 40
6.3 The data 44
7 Quality of data 59
7.1 Missing birth dates 59
7.2 Age at baptism and missing deaths 60
7.3 Sex ratio 62
7.4 Other factors related to the reliability and validity
of the parish record data 63
7.5 Conclusion 66
v
vi Contents
8 Fertility 68
8.1 Fertility development in Ovamboland, 1925–85 68
8.2 Fertility by age 70
8.3 Fertility by parish 73
8.4 Proximate variables: age at marriage, birth intervals,
and the proportion of childless women 74
8.5 Fertility recorded in parish registers compared to
that in other studies 80
8.6 Why fertility decreased and increased 81
8.7 Conclusion 87
9 Mortality 88
9.1 The level of mortality 90
9.2 Mortality decline 91
9.3 Differences in mortality by parish 93
9.4 Why mortality has declined 95
9.5 Conclusion 109
10 Migration 112
10.1 The rate of mobility in the marriage cohorts 112
10.2 Migration flows 115
10.3 Who were the migrants? 128
10.4 Causes of periodic variation in migration 140
10.5 Causes of the long-term decrease in the rate of
mobility 146
11 Summary 164
11.1 Fertility 165
11.2 Mortality 166
11.3 Migration 168
Bibliography 171
Index 184
List of Figures
Figure 2.1 The Cuvelai catchment in Namibia and Angola 8
Figure 2.2 The administrative division of Ovamboland 15
Figure 5.1 The location of the sample parishes 33
Figure 8.1 Total and general fertility rate (ages 15–49) in
Ovamboland, 1925–85 (5-year moving average, marriage
cohorts 1925–85) 68
Figure 8.2 Total marital fertility rate and Coale’s I in
g
Ovamboland, 1934–85 (5-year moving average, marriage
cohorts 1925–85) 69
Figure 8.3 Age-specific fertility rates by period in
Ovamboland, 1925–85, and in SubSaharan Africa (marriage
cohorts 1925–85) 70
Figure 8.4 Age-specific marital fertility rates by period in
Ovamboland, 1925–85, and among Hutterites (marriage
cohorts 1925–85) 72
Figure 8.5 Mean age at first marriage by sex and marriage
cohorts, 1925–85, in parish register data in Ovamboland
(persons baptized before age 15) 76
Figure 8.6 Median of second and third birth intervals in
months, by parish, 1930–88, in Ovamboland (5-year moving
average, marriage cohorts 1925–85) 77
Figure 9.1 Age-specific death rates based on observed values
and model life-tables in Ovamboland among males,
1925–54 and 1955–85 89
Figure 9.2 Age-specific death rates based on observed values
and model life-tables in Ovamboland among females, 1925–54
and 1955–85. Brass logit model life-tables derived from
ages 5–39 89
Figure 9.3 Infant mortality in Ovamboland, 1926–92
(5-year moving average) 91
Figure 9.4 Childhood mortality in Ovamboland, 1929–90
(5-year moving average) 92
Figure 9.5 Age-adjusted death rates (direct standardization,
standard population males or females in the research area,
vii
viii List of Figures
1940–70) for males aged 25–59 and females aged 20–39 in
Ovamboland, 1929–90 (5-year moving average) 93
Figure 9.6 Causes of mortality decline in Ovamboland
during the 1950s 110
Figure 10.1 Female out-migration rate in Ovamboland
since the date of marriage, 1925–92 (5-year moving average,
marriage cohorts 1925–85) 112
Figure 10.2 Male out-migration rate in Ovamboland since
the date of marriage, 1925–92 (5-year moving average,
marriage cohorts 1925–85) 113
Figure 10.3 In-migration rate of males outside Ovamboland
before the date of marriage (5-year moving average, marriage
cohorts 1925–85) 117
Figure 10.4 Inter-community migration flows by parish
and sex in Ovamboland, 1925–92 (marriage cohorts 1925–85) 122
Figure 10.5 Date of marriage and migration in Ovamboland
(marriage cohorts 1925–85) 132
Figure 10.6 Migration and marriage among in-migrant
Ovambo men from the police zone (marriage cohorts 1925–85) 133
Figure 10.7 Date of marriage and out-migration in
Oshigambo parish, 1925–65 134
Figure 10.8 Age of migrants in Ovamboland (marriage
cohorts 1925–85) 136
Figure 10.9 Age of in-migrant males from the police zone
to Ovamboland (marriage cohorts 1925–85) 137
Figure 10.10 Deviation of rainfall from the annual
average in Ondangwa, 1924/25–1987/88 142
Figure 10.11 The Ovambo water supply system and the
proposed development in 1968 149
List of Tables
Table 3.1 Development of population in Ovamboland in
the twentieth century 19
Table 4.1 The members of Lutheran parishes in Ovamboland,
1900–90 28
Table 4.2 The distribution of members among the Lutheran,
Anglican and Catholic Churches in Ovamboland, 1933, 1953,
1973 29
Table 6.1 Marriages and excluded marriages by parish and
marriage cohorts 1925–85 in parish register data in Ovamboland 45
Table 6.2 Births and excluded births by birth cohort in parish
register data in Ovamboland (marriage cohorts 1925–85) 46
Table 6.3 Deaths by parish and age among parents in parish
register data in Ovamboland (marriage cohorts 1925–85) 49
Table 6.4 Children and excluded children by parish and
birth cohort in parish register data in Ovamboland (marriage
cohorts 1925–85, including adopted children) 50
Table 6.5 Dead children by parish and age in parish register
data in Ovamboland (marriage cohorts 1925–85) 51
Table 6.6 Moves and excluded moves by parish, marriage
cohort, and sex in parish register data in Ovamboland (marriage
cohorts 1925–85) 54
Table 7.1 Missing birth dates of parents by marriage cohorts
and parish (marriage cohorts 1925–85, percentages) 60
Table 7.2 Mean age at baptism (in months) among children
by birth cohort and parish, parish register data, Ovamboland 61
Table 7.3 Sex ratio at birth (boys/girls) by birth cohort and
parish, parish register data, Ovamboland 62
Table 7.4 Members of the ELOC and the total population
in Ovamboland, 1978 65
Table 8.1 Total fertility rate for women 15–49 years by
parish and period, Ovamboland, 1925–84. 73
Table 8.2 Mean age at first marriage by sex and period in
parish register data, Ovamboland (persons baptized before
age 15, marriage cohorts 1925–85) 75
ix
