Extended Deterrence and Allied Assurance: Key Concepts and

212 Pages·2013·1.63 MB·English

Extended Deterrence
and Allied Assurance:
Key Concepts and Current
Challenges for U.S. Policy
Justin V. Anderson and Jeffrey A. Larsen
with
Polly M. Holdorf
INSS OCCASIONAL PAPER 69
SEPTEMBER 2013
US AIR FORCE
INSTITUTE FOR NATIONAL SECURITY STUDIES
USAF ACADEMY, COLORADO
Extended Deterrence and Allied Assurance:
Key Concepts and Current Challenges for
U.S. Policy

Justin V. Anderson
and
Jeffrey A. Larsen

with
Polly M. Holdorf

INSS Occasional Paper 69

September 2013

USAF Institute for National Security Studies
USAF Academy, Colorado
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The views expressed in this paper are those of the authors and do not
necessarily reflect the official policy or position of the Department of the
Air Force, the Department of Defense, or the US Government. The paper is
approved for public release; distribution is unlimited.

This report was originally prepared by SAIC for the U.S. Government. It is
published with permission of the sponsoring agencies.

Study completed February 2013.

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ABOUT THE AUTHORS

Justin V. Anderson is a Senior National Security Policy Analyst with SAIC
in Arlington, VA, providing contract support to government clients on
nuclear arms control, deterrence, and WMD proliferation issues. He is
editor of the Headquarters Air Force, Strategic Plans and Policy (AF/A5XP)
“emerging issues” report series and lead analyst for the portfolio’s nuclear
arms control analyses. His past experience includes serving as Senior Editor
of the DoD Law of War Manual and providing analysis to the DTRA, OSD
AT&L Office of Treaty Compliance, and Missile Defense Agency. Dr.
Anderson received his PhD in war studies from King’s College London.

Jeffrey A. Larsen is a Senior Scientist with Science Applications
International Corporation (SAIC) in Colorado Springs, CO. Dr. Larsen was
the first Director of AF/INSS and continues to provide contract support to
the Institute. He also works with Headquarters US Air Force, the Defense
Threat Reduction Agency (DTRA), and US Strategic Command. He is
widely published in the fields of national security, nuclear policy, arms
control, NATO policy, and the role of airpower in recent conflicts. A retired
Air Force Lt Colonel, Dr. Larsen earned his PhD in politics from Princeton
University.

Polly M. Holdorf (Annotated Bibliography) is a National Security Analyst
with Toeroek Associates, Inc. at the US Air Force Academy where she
provides on-site analysis, research and editorial support to INSS. Ms.
Holdorf was a participant in the 2010 Project on Nuclear Issues (PONI)
Nuclear Scholars Initiative program. Previously Ms. Holdorf worked as a
Field Representative in Colorado’s 5th Congressional District. Ms. Holdorf
received her M.A. in international security from the Josef Korbel School of
International Studies, University of Denver.

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TABLE OF CONTENTS

FOREWORD ix
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY xi
PART 1: INTRODUCTION 1
PART 2: DEFINITIONS AND FRAMEWORK 3
Definitions 3
Deterrence 3
Central Deterrence 4
Extended Deterrence 5
Assurance 5
Conceptual Framework for Extended Deterrence and Assurance 7
Political Resolve 9
Political-Military Support 18
Military Capability 24
Tailoring Extended Deterrence and Assurance Strategies 31

PART 3: DETERRENCE, EXTENDED DETERRENCE, AND ALLIED ASSURANCE
FROM THE COLD WAR TO THE WAR ON TERROR (1945-2008) 33
Continuity and Change in U.S. Deterrence, Extended Deterrence, and
Assurance Concepts 33
Cold War Deterrence 33
Post-Cold War Deterrence, Extended Deterrence, and Allied Assurance 55
Extended Deterrence and Allied Assurance 64

PART 4: CONTINUITY AND CHANGE IN U.S. EXTENDED DETERRENCE AND
ASSURANCE POLICIES, STRATEGIES, AND FORCES (1945-2008) 65
Policies 65
Strategies 66
Cold War 66
Post-Cold War 68
Forces 70
Conventional forces 70
Nuclear Forces 71
Missile Defenses 71
Challenges to U.S. Efforts to Extend Deterrence and Provide Assurance 73
Doubts about the United States’ Political Resolve (“de Gaulle’s Doubts”) 74
Questions Regarding U.S. Military Capabilities (A ‘Leaky’ U.S.
Umbrella?) 75
The “Healy Theorem:” The Perpetual Challenge of Correctly Tailoring
Extended Deterrence and Assurance Strategies 76
Defending the Status Quo Ante: Allied Resistance to Changes in
Extended Deterrence or Assurance Strategies 79

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PART 5: CURRENT U.S. EXTENDED DETERRENCE AND ASSURANCE
POLICIES, STRATEGIES, AND FORCES 83
Obama Administration Extended Deterrence and Assurance Policies 83
Obama Administration Views on Geopolitics, National Security, and
21st Century Deterrence 83
Obama Administration Extended Deterrence and Assurance Strategies 92
Extended Deterrence Strategies 92
Extended Deterrence: Military Force Requirements 95
Allied Assurance Strategies 98
Allied Assurance: Military Force Requirements 101
Current Issues and Challenges for U.S. Extended Deterrence and Assurance
Strategies 102
The Broad Requirement of 21st Century Deterrence 104
Tailoring Assurance and Extended Deterrence 109
Increasing Allied Involvement in Deterrence and Defense Strategies 110
Focusing Extended Deterrence Strategies on Risk Taking States 112
Reducing Reliance on Nuclear Forces and Increasing the Role of Missile
Defenses 116

PART 6: REGIONAL ISSUES 121
Regional Security Architectures 121
East Asia 121
Extended Deterrence 121
Assurance 125
Key Issues for Asian-Pacific Extended Deterrence and Assurance
Strategies 129
Middle East 130
Extended Deterrence 130
Assurance 133
Key Issues for Middle East Extended Deterrence and Assurance
Strategies 135
NATO/Europe 136
Extended Deterrence 136
Assurance 139
Key Issues for NATO Extended Deterrence and Assurance Strategies 140

PART 7: CONCLUSION 145

APPENDIX: EXTENDED DETERRENCE LITERATURE REVIEW 149

NOTES 161

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FOREWORD

We are pleased to publish this sixty-ninth volume in the Occasional
Paper series of the United States Air Force Institute for National Security
Studies (INSS). This study was sponsored and released by the United States
Government and conducted by a team from the Science Applications
International Corporation (SAIC). While this research was not sponsored by
INSS, it is both compatible with our efforts and objectives, and its authors
are associated with INSS in other aspects of their positions. It is published
here to support the strategic education of national security professionals in
the Air Force and across the government.
INSS Occasional Papers are currently published electronically and
in limited numbers of hard copies specifically to support classroom use for
strategic education. Other INSS research is published exclusively
electronically as “Research Papers” or “Strategic Papers” for general
national security education and to inform the security policy debate.
INSS found this study to be particularly significant because of its
focus on an important topic that has been receiving attention from across the
United States and allied governments over the past four to five years, yet it is
little understood outside of the government strategic policy communities.
INSS completed its own three-year series of workshops and studies on this
topic and the current strategic implications changes here are presenting to
the US Air Force. We hope that the study published here provides deeper
and broader understanding, and that it contributes to the ongoing discussion
in this policy arena.
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