Table Of ContentExplaining War and Peace
Thiseditedvolumefocusesonacommonformofcausalexplanation
ofhistoricalevents,theuseof“necessaryconditioncounterfactuals”,
which is neglected in the growing literature on the methodology of
qualitativeanalysisandcasestudies. Thevolumeanalyzesthecausal
logicsofnecessaryandsufficientconditions,demonstratesthevariety
of different ways in which necessary condition counterfactuals are
used to explain the causes of individual events, and identifies errors
commonly made in applying this form of causal logic to individual
events. It includes discussions of causal chains, contingency, critical
junctures and “powder keg” explanations, and the role of necessary
conditionsineach. Thevolumefocusesinparticularontheapplications
oftheseconceptsinavarietyofcompetingexplanationsfortwoofthe
definingeventsofthe20thcentury: theoriginsofWorldWarIandthe
endoftheColdWar.
This book will be of great interest to students of qualitative analysis,
WorldWarI,theColdWar,internationalhistoryandIRtheoryingeneral.
Gary Goertz is Professor of Political Science at the University of Ari-
zona.
JackS.LevyisBoardofGovernors’ProfessorofPoliticalScienceatRut-
gersUniversity,andPresidentoftheInternationalStudiesAssociation
(2007–08).
Contemporary Security Studies
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PeterKentForsterandStephenJ.Cimbala,TheUS,NATOandMilitary
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Strategy,GeopoliticsandNewGovernance
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IsabelleDuyvesteynandJanAngstrom(eds.),RethinkingtheNatureof
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Tim Donais, The Political Economy of Peacebuilding in Post-Dayton
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PeterH.Merkl,TheDistractedEagle: TheRiftbetweenAmericaandOld
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Jan Hallenberg and Håkan Karlsson (eds.), The Iraq War: European
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theGreaterMiddleEast
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Bertel Heurlin and Sten Rynning (eds.), Missile Defence: International,
RegionalandNationalImplications
ChandraLekhaSriram,GlobalisingJusticeforMassAtrocities: ARevolu-
tioninAccountability
Joseph L. Soeters, Ethnic Conflict and Terrorism: The Origins and
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Brynjar Lia, Globalisation and the Future of Terrorism: Patterns and
Predictions
Stephen J. Cimbala, Nuclear Weapons and Strategy: The Evolution of
AmericanNuclearPolicy
OwenL.Sirrs,NasserandtheMissileAgeintheMiddleEast
Yee-KuangHeng,WarasRiskManagement: StrategyandConflictinan
AgeofGlobalisedRisks
Jurgen Altmann, Military Nanotechnology: Potential Applications and
PreventiveArmsControl
Eric R. Terzuolo, NATO and Weapons of Mass Destruction: Regional
Alliance,GlobalThreats
Pernille Rieker, Europeanisation of National Security Identity: The EU
andtheChanging SecurityIdentitiesoftheNordic States
T. David Mason and James D. Meernik (eds.), International Conflict
Prevention and Peace-Building: Sustaining the Peace in Post Conflict
Societies
BrianRappert,ControllingtheWeaponsofWar: Politics,Persuasion,and
theProhibitionofInhumanity
JanHallenbergandHâkanKarlsson(eds.),ChangingTransatlanticSe-
curity Relations: Do the U.S, the EU and Russia Form a New Strategic
Triangle?
ThomasM.Kane,TheoreticalRootsofUSForeignPolicy: Machiavelliand
AmericanUnilateralism
ChristopherKinsey,CorporateSoldiersandInternationalSecurity: The
RiseofPrivateMilitaryCompanies
Gordon Adams and Guy Ben-Ari, Transforming European Militaries:
CoalitionOperationsandtheTechnologyGap
RobertG.Patman(ed.),GlobalizationandConflict: NationalSecurityin
a‘New’StrategicEra
JamesV.Arbuckle,MilitaryForcesin21stCenturyPeaceOperations: No
JobforaSoldier?
NickRitchieandPaulRogers,ThePoliticalRoadtoWarwithIraq: Bush,
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MichaelA.Innes(ed.),BosnianSecurityafterDayton: NewPerspectives
AndrewPriest,Kennedy,JohnsonandNATO:Britain,Americaandthe
DynamicsofAlliance,1962-68
Denise Garcia, Small Arms and Security: New Emerging International
Norms
JohnBaylisandJonRoper(eds.),TheUnitedStatesandEurope: Beyond
theNeo-ConservativeDivide?
Lionel Ponsard, Russia, NATO and Cooperative Security: Bridging the
Gap
TomBierstecker,PeterSpiro,ChandraLekhaSriramandVeronicaRaffo
(eds.),InternationalLawandInternationalRelations: BridgingTheory
andPractice
JamesH.Lebovic,DeterringInternationalTerrorismandRogueStates:
USNationalSecurityPolicyafter9/11
JohnDumbrellandDavidRyan(eds.),VietnaminIraq: Tactics,Lessons,
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Derick W. Brinkerhoff (ed.), Governance in Post-Conflict Societies: Re-
buildingFragileStates
AdrianHyde-Price,EuropeanSecurityintheTwenty-FirstCentury: The
ChallengeofMultipolarity
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CruiseMissilesandUSSecurityPolicy
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CharterandtheMajorPowers
ChristianEnermark,DiseaseandSecurity: Natural PlaguesandBiologi-
calWeaponsinEastAsia
Gary Goertz and Jack S. Levy (eds.), Explaining War and Peace: Case
StudiesandNecessaryConditionCounterfactuals
Explaining War and Peace
Case Studies and Necessary
Condition Counterfactuals
Edited by
Gary Goertz and Jack S. Levy
Firstpublished2007byRoutledge
2ParkSquare,MiltonPark,AbingdonOX144RN
SimultaneouslypublishedintheUSAandCanada
byRoutledge
270MadisonAve.,NewYork,NY10016
Routledge is an imprint of the Taylor & Francis Group, an informa
business
This edition published in the Taylor & Francis e-Library,2007.
“To purchaseyourown copy of this or any of Taylor & Francis or Routledge’s
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©2007GaryGoertzandJackS.Levyforselectionandeditorialmatter;
individual chapters, the contributors. This book has been prepared
fromcamera-readycopymadewithLATEXandprovidedbytheeditors.
All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reprinted or repro-
ducedorutilisedinanyformorbyanyelectronic,mechanical,orother
means,nowknownorhereafterinvented,includingphotocopyingand
recording, or in any information storage or retrieval system, without
permissioninwritingfromthepublishers.
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ISBN 0-203-08910-3 Master e-book ISBN
ISBN10: 0-415-42232-9(hbk)
ISBN10: 0-415-42233-7(pbk)
ISBN10: 0-203-08910-3(ebk)
ISBN13: 978-0-415-42232-1(hbk)
ISBN13: 978-0-415-42233-8(pbk)
ISBN13: 978-0-203-08910-1(ebk)
For Alexander George,
Who made such a difference for so many.
Contents
ListofTables xi
ListofFigures xiii
Contributors xiv
Acknowledgments xv
1 Introduction
GaryGoertzandJackS.Levy 1
2 Causalexplanation,necessaryconditions,andcasestudies
GaryGoertzandJackS.Levy 9
3 TheroleofnecessaryconditionsintheoutbreakofWorldWarI
JackS.Levy 47
4 Contingency,catalystsandnonlinearchange: theoriginsof
WorldWarI
RichardNedLebow 85
5 Powderkegs,sparksandWorldWarI
WilliamR.Thompson 113
6 NecessaryconditionsandWorldWarIasanunavoidablewar
PaulW.Schroeder 147
7 Power,globalization,andtheendoftheColdWar: reevaluating
alandmarkcaseforideas
StephenG.BrooksandWilliamC.Wohlforth 195
8 Perestroikawithoutpolitics: howrealismmisunderstands
theColdWar’send
RobertEnglish 237
