Explaining the Iraq War: Counterfactual Theory, Logic and Evidence Paperback

370 Pages·2011·3.449 MB·English

by  Frank P. Harvey

EXPLAINING THE IRAQ WAR
h e almost universally accepted explanation for the Iraq war is very clear
and consistent – the US decision to attack Saddam Hussein’s regime on
March 19, 2003 was a product of the ideological agenda, misguided pri-
orities, intentional deceptions and grand strategies of President George
W. Bush and prominent ‘neoconservatives’ and ‘unilateralists’ on his
national security team. Despite the widespread appeal of this version of his-
tory, Frank P. Harvey argues that it remains an unsubstantiated assertion
and an underdeveloped argument without a logical foundation. His book
aims to provide a historically grounded account of the events and strat-
egies which pushed the US–UK coalition towards war. h e analysis is based
on both factual and counterfactual evidence, combines causal mechanisms
derived from multiple levels of analysis, and ultimately coni rms the role of
path dependence and momentum as a much stronger explanation for the
sequence of decisions that led to war.
frank p. harvey was recently appointed University Research Professor
of International Relations at Dalhousie University. He held the 2007
J. William Fulbright Visiting Research Chair in Canadian Studies (SUNY,
Plattsburgh), is a Senior Research Fellow with the Canadian Defence and
Foreign Af airs Institute, and was former Director of the Centre for Foreign
Policy Studies at Dalhousie.
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EXPLAINING THE IRAQ WAR
Counterfactual h eory, Logic and Evidence
FRANK P. HARVEY

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© Frank P. Harvey 2012
h is publication is in copyright. Subject to statutory exception
and to the provisions of relevant collective licensing agreements,
no reproduction of any part may take place without the written
permission of Cambridge University Press.
First published 2012
Printed in the United Kingdom at the University Press, Cambridge
A catalogue record for this publication is available from the British Library
L ibrary of Congress Cataloguing in Publication data
Harvey, Frank P.
Explaining the Iraq War : counterfactual theory, logic and evidence / Frank P. Harvey.
p. cm.
Includes bibliographical references and index.
ISBN 978-1-107-01472-5 (hardback) – ISBN 978-1-107-67658-9 (pbk.)
1. Iraq War, 2003–Causes. 2. United States–Foreign relations–2001–2009. I. Title.
DS79.757.H37 2011
956.7044′31–dc23
2011028336
ISBN 978-1-107-01472-5 Hardback
ISBN 978-1-107-67658-9 Paperback
Cambridge University Press has no responsibility for the persistence or
accuracy of URLs for external or third-party internet websites referred to in
this publication, and does not guarantee that any content on such websites is,
or will remain, accurate or appropriate.

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To Anupa, my wife and BFF.
To Jay and Kalli G for being so perfect.
To Janet, Christine and Carolyn for their unconditional love.
To Sudershan and Ramesh for their endless support and limitless generosity.

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CONTENTS
List of i gures page viii
List of tables ix
Acknowledgments x
Introduction 1
1 Comparative counterfactual analysis and the 2003 Iraq war 2 3
2 Leadership, political context(s) and the Iraq war 40
3 Democratic national security advisers 90
4 Domestic and congressional politics 126
5 American intelligence failures and miscalculations 147
6 Societal pressures and public opinion 181
7 International politics, global WMD consensus and UN power
balancing 195
8 Hussein’s mistakes, miscalculations and misperceptions 241
9 Summary and implications 265
10 Conclusion 2 85
Bibliography 3 07
Index 3 34
vii
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FIGURES
1.1 Neoconism page 29
6.1 Historical Bush approval ratings 182
6.2 US public support for Bush’s multilateral military strategy 183
6.3 Conditions determining US public support for military
action 185
viii
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TABLES
9.1 Enabling conditions inl uencing Al Gore presidency –
2002–2003 page 266
9.2 Comparative counterfactual proi les of possible Al Gore
administrations 268
9.3 Sequence of choices leading to war – 2002–2003 272

ix
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ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
I am very grateful to the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of
Canada and the Canada-US Fulbright program for generous i nancial support
to complete the project. I would like to thank Jennifer Harris (Lucid Pulp) and
Josephine Lane (Cambridge University Press) for their meticulous attention to
detail as editorial assistants, and John Mitton for his outstanding research assist-
ance. I would also like to thank Michael Brecher, Gary Goertz, Kim Richard
Nossal, Richard Ned Lebow, Jack Levy, Denis Stairs, Philip Tetlock and two
anonymous referees for very helpful comments, suggestions and insights on
earlier drat s. Any errors are my own.

x
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Explaining the Iraq War
Counterfactual Theory, Logic and Evidence
Frank P. Harvey
Book DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/CBO9781139044226
Online ISBN: 9781139044226
Hardback ISBN: 9781107014725
Paperback ISBN: 9781107676589
Chapter
Introduction pp. 1-22
Chapter DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/CBO9781139044226.001
Cambridge University Press