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ISBN 978-0-367-01663-0
www.routledge.com aninformabusiness
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9780367016630.indd 1 9/15/2018 8:45:51 PM
Expert Systems
in Developing Countries
Expert Systems
in Developing Countries
Practice and Promise
EDITED BY
Charles Mann
K.
and Stephen R. ·Ruth
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LONDON AND NEW YORK
First published 1992 by Westview Press
Published 2018 by Routledge
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2 Park Square, Milton Park, Abingdon, Oxon OX14 4RN
Routledge is an imprint of the Taylor & Francis Group, an informa business
Copyright © 1992 by Taylor & Francis
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LibraorfCy o ngreCsast aloging-in-PDuabtlai cation
Expersty steimnsd evelopcionugn t:r ipersactaincdep romi/s eedited
byC harlKe.sM anna ndS tephRe.nR uth.
p. cm.-(Westview speciinsa olc ispatolul,di iteiascnd a l,
economdiecv elopment)
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ISBN 13: 978-0-367-01663-0 (hbk)
Contents
Acknowledgments vii
1. Introduction and Overview 1
Charles K. Mann and Stephen R. Ruth
2. Harnessing Shell-based Knowledge Engineering Environments:
An Applications-based Perspective 13
Stephen R. Ruth
3. Roles for Expert Systems in Agricultural Development 21
Victor S. Doherty
4. Expert Systems for Agrotechnology Thlnsfer 33
James W. Jones
5. AGASSISTANT: A New Generation Tuol for Developing
Agricultural Advisory Systems 43
Thomas W. Fermanian and Ryszard S. Michalski
6. Knowledge Acquisition: A Case History of an Insect
Control Expert System 71
Pierce Jones, James W. Jones, Howard Beck, and P.A. Everett
7. Knowledge Engineering: Creating Expert Systems for
Crop Production Management in Egypt 89
Ahmed A. Ra/ea, Merrill E. Warkentin, and
Stephen R. Ruth
8. A Knowledge-based Expert System for Planning and
Design of Agroforestry Systems lOS
Merlril E. Warkentin, P.K.R. Nair, Stephen R. Ruth, .
and Kristopher Sprague
9. Expert Systems for Information Thlnsfer About Soil and Crop
Management in Developing Countries 115
Russell Yost, Stephen !toga, Zhi-Cheng Li, Carol Colfer,
·
Le lstiqla/ Amien, Phoebe Kilham, and James Hanson
10. DREAGIS: A Knowledge-based Agricultural Geographic
Information System for the Dominican Republic 127
David Mendez Emilien and Severin V. Grabski
11. Diffusion of Computer Tuchnology in Primary Health
Care in the Third World 147
John A. Daly
v
vi CONTENTS
12. A Decision Support System for Village Health Workers
in Developing Countries 193
G. Porent._a, B. .Pfahringer, M. Hoberstorfer, and R. Trapp/
13. Finandng Scheme Portfolio for Health Services
in Developing Countries: An Expert System Approach 209
Eckhard F. Kleinau
14. Design of an Expert System for Water Pollution
Determination/Prevention 241
Metka Vrta'1nik, Pavel Cok, A. Cizerle, D. Dolni'l:ar,
S. Gla!ar, and Radojka Olbina
15. Expert System as Metaphor: The AskAR/ES Knowledgebase 255
Charles K. Mann
16. Future Promise in Light of Current Practice 267
Victor S. Doherty, Charles K. Man,n and John J. Sviokla
About the Contributors 279
Index 285
Acknowledgments
As with any work of relatively broad scope, our debts in bringing this book
to completion are many. First, we thank the American Association for the
Advancement of Science for the opportunity at their 1988 annual meeting to
launch the project with a panel discussion: The Use of Expert Systems in
Developing Countries. Panel member James W. Jones was especially helpful
in assisting us in tracking down additional examples of expert systems in Third
World agriculture. Chapter authors greatly facilitated our editorial task by
their thoughtful and prompt responses to suggestions, aimed at making the
overall work more coherent and consistent. In particular, Victor S. Doherty
contributed not only as chapter author but as a refreshing source of insights
and stimulus. Jerry Mechling at Harvard's J. F. Kennedy School of
Government and John J. Sviokla at the Harvard Business School also provided
valued encouragement and insight.
For administrative assistance and painstaking care in reworking notes
and references into a consistent format, we are grateful to Amy Ganders,
Patricia Camey, and especially to Jennifer Gonzalez who assisted in the
critical final stage of manuscript preparation. For bringing the manuscript
through many drafts into camera-ready copy, we express special appreciation
to Mary Blackwell, Director of George Mason University's Word Processing
Center, and to Sandy Slater, who not only did a superb job with the text
processing but also converted many of the graphics directly into camera-ready
form.
At Westview Press, we thank Kellie Masterson for her early
encouragement to us to develop this book. As the manuscript progressed,
·
Lynn Arts and Ellen McCarthy provided excellent guidance to assure a
consistent format and appearance for all of the chapters. For the
comprehensive index, we are indebted to Veronica Cruz. Lastly, we thank our
respective institutions, the Harvard Institute for International Development
and George Mason University School of Business Administration, for
providing an environment to encourage reflection as to how the cutting-edge
technologies of the industrialized countries may be shaped to benefit the
developing countries as well. Finally, we close this statement of appreciation
and acknowledgment with our acceptance of final responsibility for any errors
or omissions that may yet remain.
Charles K. Mann
Stephen R. Ruth
vii
1
Introduction and Overview
Charles K. Mann and Stephen R. Ruth
'I\vo Visions of the Future
"The expert systems whose stories we have told are �ndows on the
new economic results from the first technology spin-offo f artificial intel
ligence. Even in the light of early dawn, the returns on investment, the
productivity increase, the consequences of preserving and distributing
company expertise, the enhancement of quality, and the other gains are
remarkable. In the international competitive environment, the early
adopters will not easily be displaced by latecomers. The competitive
opportunity presents itself now. When will another, as widely useful and
powerful as this, come along?" (Fiegenbaum, McCorduck, and Ni
1988:270,71)
". .. There is almost no likelihood that scientists can develop
machines capable of making intelligent decisions. After 25 years of
research, Ai has failed to live up to its promise, and there is no evidence
that it ever will. In fact, machine intelligence willp robably never replace
human intelligence simply because we ourselves are not 'thinking
machines'. Human beings have an intuitive intelligence that 'reasoning'
machines simply cannot match .... Computers that 'teach' and systems
that render 'expert' business decisions would eventually produce a gener
ation of students and managers who have no faith in their own intuition
and expertise." (Dreyfus and Dreyfus 1986:44)
Expert Systems in the Developing Countries
An expert system (ES) is a computer program that uses knowledge, facts,
and reasoning techniques to solve problems that normally require the abilities
1
