Ex ante Evaluation of MARCO POLO II 2007-2013

225 Pages·2004·1.43 MB·English

Ex ante Evaluation
Marco Polo II (2007-2013)

Final Report-1

Client: European Commission, DG TREN
ECORYS Transport

Rotterdam, 15 June 2004
TRANSPORT

P.O. Box 4175
3006 AD Rotterdam
Watermanweg 44
3067 GG Rotterdam
The Netherlands

T [phone]
F [phone]
E [email protected]
W www.ecorys.com
Registration no. 24316726
Ex ante Evaluation Marco Polo II (2007-2013)
Table of contents
Page
Abstract i
Executive summary i
1 Introduction 1
1.1 Background 1
1.2 Objective of Marco Polo II ex ante evaluation 1
1.3 Definitions and focus of Marco Polo II 1
1.4 Methodology 2
1.5 Contents of the report 3
2 Problem analysis and needs assessment 5
2.1 Problem analysis 5
2.1.1 Key aspects 7
2.1.2 Factor analysis 10
2.1.3 Actors analysis 11
2.1.4 Cause-effect relations 12
2.2 Needs assessment 14
2.2.1 Target groups 14
2.2.2 Hierarchy of target groups’ interests 15
2.2.3 Target groups’ needs versus Community objectives 17
2.3 SWOT analysis 17
2.4 Conclusions 19
3 Objectives and indicators 21
3.1 Objectives and actions of Marco Polo II 21
3.2 Indicators and target levels 24
3.3 Conclusions 27
4 Alternative delivery mechanism and risk assessment 29
4.1 Introduction 29
4.2 Alternative options 30
4.2.1 Intervention Strategy 30
4.2.2 Instruments 32
4.2.3 Channels of Intervention 33
4.2.4 Alternative levels 34
4.3 Risk assessment 35
Ex ante Evaluation Marco Polo II (2007-2013)
4.3.1 Identification of risks 35
4.3.2 Likelihood of risks 36
4.3.3 Potential Impact of risks 37
4.4 Conclusions 37
5 Analysis of European Added Value 39
5.1 Introduction 39
5.2 Hypothesis on the European Added Value of Marco Polo II 40
5.3 Inventory of programmes 40
5.3.1 Inventory of Member State programmes 40
5.3.2 Inventory of other EU-programmes 43
5.3.3 Trans European Networks 44
5.4 Comparison 44
5.4.1 Member State programmes 44
5.4.2 Other EU programmes 45
5.4.3 Trans European Networks 45
5.5 Conclusions 46
6 Lessons from the past 47
6.1 Introduction 47
6.2 Brief overview of PACT and Marco Polo 47
6.3 Relevance of strategy 49
6.4 Effectiveness 49
6.5 Efficiency 50
6.6 Critical factors 51
6.7 Lessons from other sources 52
6.8 Conclusions 54
7 Stakeholders’ consultation 55
7.1 Introduction 55
7.2 Experiences with PACT and Marco Polo I 55
7.3 The Marco Polo II programme 56
7.4 The defined actions 58
7.5 Programme management 59
7.6 Appreciation of the stakeholders’ comments 60
7.7 Conclusions 60
8 Budget calculation 61
8.1 Introduction 61
8.2 Calculation and assumptions 61
8.3 Assessment of Marco Polo II budget 64
8.4 Sensitivity analysis 64
8.5 Conclusions 66
9 Impact Assessment 69
9.1 Introduction 69
9.2 Type of impacts 69
9.2.1 Direct impacts 70
Ex ante Evaluation Marco Polo II (2007-2013)
9.2.2 Indirect impacts 70
9.3 Conclusions 76
10 Cost-effectiveness 77
10.1 Introduction 77
10.2 Cost-effectiveness compared to other programmes 77
10.3 Cost-effectiveness of actions within Marco Polo II 79
10.4 Conclusions 80
11 Planning future monitoring and evaluation 81
11.1 Introduction 81
11.2 Monitoring in Marco Polo II 82
11.3 Evaluation 84
11.4 Conclusions 84
12 Programme management 87
12.1 Management structure 87
12.1.1 Human resources 87
12.1.2 Member States’ representation 88
12.2 Managerial aspects 89
12.2.1 Selection procedure 89
12.2.2 Public relations 90
12.3 Conclusions 91

Annexes:
1. Literature
2. Problem trees
3. Logframe matrix
4. Analysis of national programmes
5. Summary of EC White paper
6. Lessons from the past
7. Budget calculation-parameters
8. Budget calculation-investments costs for typical projects
9. Stakeholders’ consultation
10. Impact assessment

Ex ante Evaluation Marco Polo II (2007-2013)
Ex ante Evaluation Marco Polo II (2007-2013)
Abstract
The current Marco Polo programme (2003-2006) lays the foundation for the new Marco
Polo programme (2007-2013), as the new programme continues to address the issue of
constraining international road freight transport through effective short-term intervention
(mainly 3-4 years project support duration, with lasting effects) by the use of practical
logistics services projects. The nature of the programme, providing risk-reducing
subsidies to market driven services, making the programme a typical Public private
Partnership, will remain.

The new Marco Polo programme refocuses itself from a pure modal shift actions
programme to an innovative actions programme. This is driven by the fact that traditional
Modal Shift action project opportunities will be gradually exhausted; the good projects
are selected first, next projects provide less marginal benefits. Therefore, the new
programme call s for a new approach in which infrastructure funding is allowed for
Catalyst Actions, and three new type of actions are defined (Motorways of the Sea, Rail
Synergy and Traffic Avoidance), all with a highly innovative profile. Also for these three
actions, infrastructure funding is allowed. Including infrastructure funding makes the
programme more expensive (total required budget is some 820 million euro for the
programme period), however, without infrastructure funding the programme would not
attract the innovative projects from the market that are needed to deliver the programme’s
objective of shifting 144 billion tonne-kilometres off the road.

The programme is expected to provide value for money through delivering its objectives
(at a rate of 176 tonne-kilometres shifted per euro) and at the same time by providing
saving in externalities at a level of almost 5 billion euro.

Marco Polo provides European Added Value through its complementarily to and
coherence with national Member States’ and other Commission’s programmes. The
member State programmes primarily focus on domestic transport, infrastructure provision
and do not concentrate on international co-ordination, providing a strong match with
Marco Polo’s focus. An example of other Commission’s programme complementarily is
the relationship between Marco Polo and the Trans European Networks programme
(TEN-T) programme. Marco Polo, market driven, focusing on services, with a short-term
horizon especially is complementary to the TEN-T programme, with a long-term horizon,
providing the infrastructure of which the services as supported in Marco Polo will make
use.

Ex ante Evaluation Marco Polo II (2007-2013)
Ex ante Evaluation Marco Polo II (2007-2013) ii
Executive summary
Road freight transport comes with negative side-effects and EU policy is aimed at
reducing these effects …
In an open European ‘flow’ economy freight transport is essential. Nevertheless, road
freight transport is generally acknowledged to contribute to worsening congestion, a
disproportionate number of accidents and damage to the environment. EU policy, as
defined in the EU White paper ‘European Transport Policy for 2010: Time to Decide’, is
aimed at shifting the balance of transport, amongst others through stimulating alternative
modes of transport, i.e. rail, inland waterways and short sea transport.

Marco Polo II contributes to a shifted balance by shifting freight off the road …
The general objective of the Marco Polo II programme is to reduce road congestion,
enhance traffic safety and to improve the environmental performance of the freight
transport system within the Community, thereby contributing to an efficient and
sustainable transport system. The specific objective of the Marco Polo II programme is to
shift at least the expected increase of international freight transport in the period 2007-
2013 off the road.

Two main ways of delivering this specific objective are identified: modal shift and Traffic
Avoidance Actions. The Marco Polo II programme defines six actions: (i) Modal Shift
Action, (ii) Catalyst Action, (iii) Common Learning Action, (iv) Motorways of the Sea
Action, (v) Rail Synergy Action and (vi) Traffic Avoidance Action. An overview of the
relationship between the general objectives, specific objective and the six defined actions
is presented below.

Efficient and
Sustainable Mobility
Diminishing
Less congestion Environmental Side- Enhanced Safety general objectives
Effects
Reducing
International Road specific objective
Freight Transport
operational
Modal Shift Traffic Avoidance
objectives
Modal Shift action Motorways of the Rail Synergy action (other) Catalyst Common Learning Traffic Avoidance actions
Sea action action action action

Ex ante Evaluation Marco Polo II (2007-2013) i
Scope determining aspects of Marco Polo II are:
• Marco Polo II covers the period 2007-2013.
• The main geographic scope of Marco Polo II is EU-25, i.e. the current 25 EU
Member States. Additional countries can fully participate in Marco Polo II upon
signing bilateral agreements.
• Marco Polo II is aimed at providing assistance in the form of risk reducing subsidies
to bottom-up logistic services. Infrastructure funding can be part of the assistance in
cases where this infrastructure is supporting the logistic services.

Marco Polo II is the successor of PACT (Pilot Actions on Combined Transport, 1997-
2002) and Marco Polo I (2003-2006). Marco Polo II is broader in scope than its
predecessors, both in terms of country coverage and type of actions included in the
programme.

The main programme indicator, related to the specific and operational objective and the
driving force for each of the actions defined, is the amount of tonne-kilometres1 shifted
off the road. Marco Polo II aims to shift at least 144 billion tonne-kilometres off the road
in the period 2007-2013.

The new Marco Polo programme shifts its focus to innovation…
The new Marco Polo programme builds on experiences from the previous programmes
and at the same time refocuses itself from pure modal shift actions to more innovative
actions. This is driven by the fact that there is a saturation effect in modal shift actions;
the good projects are selected first, next projects provide less marginal benefits.
Therefore, under the new programme infrastructure funded is allowed in the Catalyst
Action, which is innovation driven. Furthermore, three new actions have been defined, all
with a highly innovative profile. Also for these three actions, infrastructure funding is
allowed. Including infrastructure funding makes the programme more expensive,
however, without infrastructure funding the programme would not be able to reach is
objective of shifting 144 billion tonne-kilometres off the road.

Marco Polo II fills a market niche …
Marco Polo II seeks to develop practical multi-modal and traffic avoidance applications
within the total transport domain, which are capable of replication. It is specifically
addressing the issue of constraining international road freight transport through effective
short-term intervention (mainly 3-4 years project support duration, with lasting effects)
by the use of practical logistics services projects using intermodal technologies and
traffic avoidance measures. The nature of the programme, providing risk-reducing
subsidies (with state contribution at a maximum rate of 35 percent, leaving the remainder
of investment to be covered by the private sector), makes the programme a typical Public
private Partnership. By doing so, Marco Polo II fills a market niche (international road
freight, short-term, bottom up logistics services) and provides a funding opportunity for
projects, which have limited access to financial support from national Governments,
given their tight financial positions.

1 Tonne-kilometre is defined as the transport of a tonne of freight, or its volumetric equivalent, over a distance of one kilometre.
Ex ante Evaluation Marco Polo II (2007-2013) ii