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Evaluación de Eduardo Contreras inversiones bajo incertidumbre teoría y aplicaciones a proyectos en Chile ! "#!$%&'()!*%!+,&-&.-/!01%&'-!0)&!%#!! /,2&,3,0-',4)!-5)6)!*%#!7-&0)!*%!$(8*,')! %!9&4%(/,)&%/!7$9                                                                                 § Departamento de Ingeniería Industrial (DII), Universidad de Chile. E-mail: [email protected]. Profesor Adjunto. Miembro del Centro de Gestión (Ceges) del DII.                                                                                                                                                                  Cultivo Xo X1 VAN o VAN1 Delta VAN Delta VAN DeltaX Elasticidad $/Kg. $/Kg. $ $ $ VAN o Xo Trigo 89.9 98.9 5.863.332.018 5.812.634.841 -50.697.177 -0.86% 10.00% -8.65% Cebada 77.3 85.0 5.863.332.018 5.862.526.161 -805.856 -0.01% 10.00% -0.14% Avena 54.2 59.6 5.863.332.018 5.843.866.248 -19.465.770 -0.33% 10.00% -3.32% Papa 65.3 71.8 5.863.332.018 6.079.568.812 216.236.794 3.69% 10.00% 36.88% Remolacha 22.2 24.4 5.863.332.018 6.002.695.748 139.363.730 2.38% 10.00% 23.77% Frambuesa c.v. Meeker* 791.2 870.4 5.863.332.018 6.004.683.604 141.351.586 2.41% 10.00% 24.11% Frambuesa c.v. Heritage* 615.3 676.9 5.863.332.018 5.862.264.932 -1.067.086 -0.02% 10.00% -0.18% Manzano c.v. Fuji 68.7 75.5 5.863.332.018 5.930.782.371 67.450.353 1.15% 10.00% 11.50% Manzano c.v. Royal Gala 53.9 59.2 5.863.332.018 5.920.210.860 56.878.842 0.97% 10.00% 9.70% Carne* 492.1 541.3 5.863.332.018 6.005.528.845 142.196.828 2.43% 10.00% 24.25% Leche* 101.2 111.3 5.863.332.018 6.552.122.261 688.790.244 11.75% 10.00% 117.47% Todos los precios 5.863.332.018 7.243.564.502 1.380.232.484 23.54% 10.00% 235.40% Inversión ($) 898.716.320 988.587.952 5.863.332.018 5.773.460.386 -89.871.632 -1.53% 10.00% -15.33% *En el caso de las frambuesas, carne y leche no hay una única proyección de precio.                                                    Alternativa 1 Alternativa 2 Alternativa 3 Alternativa 4 Alternativa 5 Alternativa 6 Alternativa 7 EMBALSE CEREALES Trigo 4.06 8.23 1.99 11.48 7.97 17.13 21.49 0.58 Avena -0.01 -0.01 -0.01 -0.02 -0.02 -0.04 -0.04 -0.01 Cebada 0.57 1.14 0.29 1.69 1.12 2.41 3.19 0.33 CHACRAS Papas 2.38 4.61 2.07 6.78 5.01 11.15 13.54 1.00 Poroto consumo interno 0.29 0.56 0.22 0.82 0.59 1.31 1.61 0.06 Poroto exportación 0.54 1.08 0.28 1.54 1.07 2.30 2.89 0.10 Maíz de Grano 0.02 0.05 0.02 0.07 0.05 0.11 0.14 0.00 HORTALIZAS Espárragos Exportación 4.37 8.58 2.75 12.42 8.80 19.17 23.81 0.82 Espárragos Mercado Interno 2.25 4.42 1.42 6.40 4.54 9.88 12.28 0.42 Espárragos Mercado Agroindustrial 1.58 3.11 1.00 4.50 3.19 6.95 8.63 0.30 FRUTALES Y BERRIES Manzano Exportación 0.89 1.74 0.51 2.51 1.78 3.85 4.77 0.07 Manzano Mercado Interno 0.26 0.50 0.15 0.73 0.52 1.12 1.38 0.02 Peral Exportación 0.15 0.29 0.09 0.42 0.30 0.64 0.79 0.01 Peral Mercado Interno 0.03 0.06 0.02 0.09 0.06 0.14 0.17 0.00 Cerezo Exportación 0.15 0.30 0.09 0.43 0.31 0.66 0.82 0.01 Cerezo Mercado Interno 0.08 0.16 0.05 0.23 0.17 0.36 0.44 0.01 Arándano sin RT Exportación 0.13 0.25 0.06 0.48 0.26 0.54 0.89 0.32 Frambuesa Exportación 1.92 3.73 1.11 5.42 3.83 8.29 10.29 0.24 Frambuesa Mercado Interno 0.68 1.33 0.39 1.94 1.37 2.96 3.67 0.09 Frutilla Mercado Interno 0.89 1.72 0.51 2.50 1.77 3.84 4.75 0.10 PRADERAS ARTIFICIALES ANUALES Avena Forrajera 0.44 0.89 0.23 1.24 0.87 1.88 2.35 0.06 Ballicas anuales 0.03 0.05 0.02 0.08 0.06 0.13 0.15 0.00 Maíz de Silo 0.09 0.18 0.09 0.27 0.20 0.45 0.54 0.02 Tréboles anuales 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 PRADERAS ARTIFICIALES PERMANENTES Alfalfa 1.38 2.70 0.73 3.89 2.73 5.88 7.33 0.19 Tréboles blanco y rosado 0.54 1.05 0.29 1.57 1.07 2.29 2.96 0.23 Mezclas permanentes 0.04 0.07 0.03 0.11 0.08 0.18 0.22 0.01 PRADERAS NATURALES -0.20 -0.40 -0.18 -0.58 -0.43 -0.96 -1.16 -0.06 CULTIVOS IND (MENTA) Margen Neto 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.04 0.05 TOTAL 23.56 46.41 14.22 67.60 47.69 103.57 117.64 5.05 INVERSION -2.83 -7.69 -2.98 -9.66 -6.55 -17.46 -20.77 1.93 ENTRADA RIEGO (+ 3 AÑOS) -11.87 -26.67 -6.97 -33.87 -23.73                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           CCoonncceeppttoo RReessuullttaaddoo   TTaassaa ddee ddeessccuueennttoo 1111..33%%   TTaassaa lliibbrree ddee rriieessggoo 66..55%%   TTrraammoo ddee lliicciittaacciióónn LLaa ooffeerrttaa ssee ssiittúúaa eenn eell tteerrcceerr  ttrraammoo,, ppllaazzoo yy ttaarriiffaa ffiijjooss..  PPllaazzoo:: 112200 mmeesseess   TTaarriiffaa:: $$22,,550000  PPaaggoo:: 66..995544 UUFF    VVAANN 66,,995544 [[UUFF]]   TTIIRR 1111..99%%                VVaarriiaacciióónn VVAANN TTIIRR   IInnvveerrssiióónn ++55%% ((44,,444477)) 1100..99%%   --55%% 1188,,224433 1133..00%%   IInnggrreessooss ++22%% 1144,,555588 1122..66%%   --22%% ((774411)) 1111..22%%                                                                                                                     

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la incertidum re a la evaluación de royectos de inversión. 2. considera una recu eración rusca de los recios luego de la caída, lo que sí se.

Evaluación de inversiones bajo incertidumbre teoría y aplicaciones a proyectos en Chile PDF

112 Pages·2012·1.53 MB·Spanish

by Eduardo Contreras

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la incertidum re a la evaluación de royectos de inversión. 2. considera una recu eración rusca de los recios luego de la caída, lo que sí se.

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Author:	Eduardo Contreras
Publication Year:	2012
Pages:	112
Language:	Spanish
File Size:	1.53
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