Estimation of Hominoid Ancestral Population Sizes - Ziheng Yang

16 Pages·2008·0.23 MB·English

Estimation of Hominoid Ancestral Population Sizes under Bayesian Coalescent
Models Incorporating Mutation Rate Variation and Sequencing Errors
Ralph Burgess*(cid:1) and Ziheng Yang*(cid:2)
*GaltonLaboratory,DepartmentofBiology,UniversityCollegeLondon,London,UnitedKingdom;(cid:1)WatsonSchoolofBiological
Sciences,ColdSpringHarborLaboratory,ColdSpringHarbor,NY;and(cid:2)LaboratoryofBiometrics,GraduateSchoolofAgriculture
andLifeSciences, University of Tokyo,Tokyo,Japan
Estimation of population parameters for the common ancestors of humans and the great apes is important in
understandingourevolutionaryhistory.Inparticular,inferenceofpopulationsizeforthehuman–chimpanzeecommon
ancestor may shed light on the process by which the 2 species separated and on whether the human population
experienced a severe size reduction in its early evolutionary history. In this study, the Bayesian method of ancestral
inferenceofRannalaandYang(2003.Bayesestimationofspeciesdivergencetimesandancestralpopulationsizesusing
DNA sequences from multiple loci. Genetics. 164:1645–1656) was extended to accommodate variable mutation rates
amonglociandrandomspecies-specificsequencingerrors.Themodelwasappliedtoanalyzeagenome-widedatasetof
;15,000neutralloci(7.4Mb)alignedforhuman,chimpanzee,gorilla,orangutan,andmacaque.Weobtainedrobustand
precise estimates for effective population sizes along the hominoid lineage extending back ;30 Myr to the
cercopithecoid divergence. Theresultsshowed thatancestral populations were5–10timeslarger thanmodern humans
along the entire hominoid lineage. The estimates were robust to the priors used and to model assumptions about
recombination.TheunusuallylowXchromosomedivergencebetweenhumanandchimpanzeecouldnotbeexplainedby
variation in the male mutation bias or by current models of hybridization and introgression. Instead, our parameter
estimates were consistent with a simple instantaneous process for human–chimpanzee speciation but showed a major
reductioninXchromosomeeffectivepopulationsizepeculiartothehuman–chimpanzeecommonancestor,possiblydue
toselective sweeps onthe Xprior toseparation of the 2 species.
Introduction 1991). Takahata (1993) has argued that the diversity and
deepcoalescenceofMHCallelesimplyN(cid:1)100,000over
TheeffectivesizeNofapopulationisdirectlyrelated
this longer timescale.
tothegeneticdiversitythatismaintainedinthepopulation
Amoreancientdemographichistoryofthehumanlin-
(KimuraandCrow1964).Analysesofpolymorphismdata
eagemaybeinferredthroughcomparisonwiththegenomes
haveconsistentlyestimatedN(cid:1)10,000forthemodernhu-
of other primates. The evolutionary distance between or-
manlineage(e.g.,NeiandGraur1984;Takahata1993;Yu
thologous sequences from 2 species, such as human (H)
etal.2001).Furthermore,astudyofgenome-widelinkage
and chimpanzee (C),isattributable to 2time components:
disequilibrium, using an independent method, suggested
the speciation time s , which is common to all loci, and
that our recent population size was 2–3 times smaller HC
thecoalescenttimeintheHCancestralpopulation,whichis
(Tenesa et al. 2007). Although it is well recognized that
variableamongloci.Calendartimesarescaledintoevolu-
effectivepopulationsizemaybemuchsmallerthancensus
tionarydistances,withs 5 T l,whereT isthetime
population size, these estimates are still surprisingly low, HC HC HC
and there is considerable interest in determining possible inyearstohuman–chimpanzeespeciationandlisthemu-
population bottlenecks in human evolutionary history. As tation rate, measured by the number of mutations per site
for other modern hominoids, studies of polymorphism in per year. Coalescence rate and variance are determined
nuclear noncoding regions estimated chimpanzee popula- solely by the scaled ancestral population size hHC 5
tion size to be N (cid:1) 21,000 and gorilla N (cid:1) 25,000 (Yu 4NHCgl,wheregisthegenerationtimeinyears.Withasin-
etal.2001,2004;seealsoKaessmannetal.2001).Limited gle locus, one cannot distinguish recent speciation with
datafortheorangutansuggestedhigherdiversity,butanex- alargeancestralpopulation(smalls andlargeh )from
HC HC
cessofintermediate-frequencyallelesimplicatedpopulation ancient speciation with a small ancestral population (large
subdivision rather than greater size (Fischer et al. 2006). s andsmallh ).However,Takahata(1986)pointedout
HC HC
UndertheFisher–Wrightmodel,theexpectedtimefor thatdatafrommultiplelocicontaininformationabouth
HC
alargesampleofallelesataneutrallocustofindtheirmost in the variation of observed divergences among loci, en-
recentcommonancestoris;4Ngenerations,withstandard abling us to estimate s and h jointly. Such inference
HC HC
deviation (SD) at ;2.15N (e.g., Tajima 1983). Therefore, is nevertheless sensitive to mutation rate variation among
withagenerationtimeof;20yearsandaneffectivepop- loci (Yang 1997b).
ulation size N (cid:1) 10,000, human diversity at neutral loci Withdatafor3ormorecloselyrelated species,addi-
contains no demographic information much beyond 1.5 tional information is provided by incomplete lineage sort-
Myr. However, at the major histocompatibility complex ing.Considerthecaseofhuman(H),chimpanzee(C),and
(MHC),balancingselectionhasextendedthemeancoales- gorilla (G), where the species tree is ((HC)G) (see fig. 1).
cencetimeforhumanDRB1allelesto;29Myr(Sattaetal. CoalescenceofHandCallelesmayoccurintheinternode
ancestral population HC, in which case the gene tree
Keywords:hominoid,ancestralpopulationsize,Bayesianinference, matches the species tree. Otherwise, if all 3 alleles enter
MCMC,coalescentmodel,sequencingerrors.
the HCG ancestral population, they may coalesce in any
E-mail:[email protected].
orderwithequalprobability,with2ofthe3possiblegene
Mol.Biol.Evol.25(9):1979–1994.2008 treesinconflictwiththespeciestree.Theprobabilityofspe-
doi:10.1093/molbev/msn148
AdvanceAccesspublicationJuly4,2008 cies tree–gene tree mismatch (PSG) is thus two-thirds the
(cid:1)TheAuthor2008.PublishedbyOxfordUniversityPressonbehalfof
theSocietyforMolecularBiologyandEvolution.Allrightsreserved.
Forpermissions,pleasee-mail:[email protected]
1980 BurgessandYang
from multiple species, but few comparative primate data
sets were available in 2003.
Inthisstudy,weusedMCMCCOALforBayesianco-
alescent analysis of a genome-wide data set of ;15,000
neutral loci (7.4 Mb) from 5 primate species (Patterson
et al. 2006). We updated the alignments to incorporate
thehigh-qualitygenomeassemblysequencenowavailable
forchimpanzeeandmacaqueandtrimmed theerror-prone
endsofshotgunsequencingreads,leadingtoimproveddata
quality. The basic model in MCMCCOAL (Rannala and
Yang2003)wasextendedtoaccommodatevariablemuta-
tionratesamonglociandtoallowforspecies-specificran-
domsequencingerrors.Wediscusstheimplicationsofour
parameter estimates for the speciation process between
human and chimpanzee.
Materials and Methods
Sequence Data
We retrieved the alignments of human, chimpanzee,
gorilla, orangutan, and macaque (HCGOM) of Patterson
etal.(2006).Thosedata weregorilla whole-genome shot-
FIG.1.—Thespeciestreeforhuman(H),chimpanzee(C),gorilla(G), gunreadsalignedtohumanassemblysequence,tomultiple
orangutan(O),andmacaque(M)showingtheparametersinthemodel.For preassemblyreadsofchimpanzeeandmacaque,andtolow-
eachancestralpopulation(referredtoasHC,HCG,HCGO,HCGOM),2 coverageorangutanreads.Wecombinedoverlappingreads
parametersaredefined:h54Nlgands5Tl,whereNistheeffective
into a single consensus sequence for each species and
populationsize,listhemutationratepersiteperyear,gisthegeneration
extracted 50,321 segments with at least 300 sites aligned
time,andTisthespeciesdivergencetime.SequencingerrorsinC,G,andO
aremodeledbyexcessbranchlengthse ,e ,ande . forallspeciespresentinthealignment(table1,rowa).With
C G O
lowerreadcoveragefororangutaninthepublicdatabases,
38% of segments included only the 4 species HCGM. In
probabilitythatnocoalescenceoccursintheancestralpop- most cases, segment ends corresponded to the end of a
ulation HC gorilla shotgun read, or less often an orangutan read, with
mean length ;700 sites.
2
P 5 e(cid:2)2ðsHCG(cid:2)sHCÞ=hHC ð1Þ Weimprovedthequalityofthesequencedatabyincor-
SG 3
poratingthemostrecentgenomeassemblydataforchimpan-
(Hudson 1983). This probability is greater for larger h zee(panTro2,WashUbuild2.1,October2005)andmacaque
HC
andshorterinternodetime(s (cid:2)s ).Inrealdatasets, (rheMac2,Baylorbuild1.0,January2006).Humanlociwere
HCG HC
thetruegenetreesareunknown,andacommonstrategyis identifiedintheUniversityofCalifornia,SantaCruz(UCSC)
the so-called ‘‘tree-mismatch’’ or ‘‘trichotomy’’ method Genome Bioinformatics pairwise BlastZ alignments of the
(e.g., Chen and Li 2001), by which the theoretical proba- mostrecenthumanassemblyhg18(NCBIbuild36.1,March
bility (P ) is equated to the proportion (P ) of mis- 2006)againstchimpanzeeandmacaque.Fourpercentofthe
SG SE
matches between the species tree and the estimated gene alignmentswerediscardedbecausethelocimappedtobreaks
tree.However,Yang(2002)pointedoutthaterrorsingene intheUCSCalignmentsforHCorHM.Thesequenceswere
treereconstructioninflatethemismatchprobabilitysothat realigned using MUSCLE (Edgar 2004). Default settings
P isalwaysgreater thanP ,andthismethodmayseri- were used, except for a reduced gap-opening penalty of
SE SG
ously overestimate ancestral population size h (see also 250,foundempiricallytoreducethenumberofpooralign-
HC
below). ments.Inasmallnumberofcases(144,0.3%),substituting
Analternativetothetree-mismatchmethodisthefull UCSC-alignedchimpanzeeandmacaquesequencesandre-
likelihood approach, including both maximum likelihood aligningresultedinmorethandoublingofatleastonepair-
(Takahata et al. 1995; Yang 2002) and Bayesian methods wisedistance.Theselociwerediscardedaseithertheoriginal
(RannalaandYang2003).Thelikelihoodfunctionaccom- alignmentsortheUCSCalignmentsmayhavebeenspurious.
modatesuncertaintyinthegenetrees,weightingeachpos- Alignmentendscorrespondedtotheerror-proneends
sible tree by its probability of occurrence. Another ofGorOshotgunsequencingreads(seeResults),sothey
advantageofthelikelihood-basedapproachisthat ittakes weretruncatedby100sites.(Truncatingmoresitesshowed
account of the branch lengths in the trees, which provide negligible further improvement in quality.) This approach
information about gene coalescent times. The maximum was preferred to the use of PHRED scores for individual
likelihood calculation involves multidimensional integrals base calls because our model required continuous align-
and is practical for small data sets only. The Bayesian ments (without internal gaps). Furthermore, the use of
MarkovchainMonteCarlo(MCMC)algorithm,asimple- PHRED thresholds may introduce bias (Johnson and
mentedintheMCMCCOALprogram(Yang2002;Rannala Slatkin 2008), and they do not account for all sources of
andYang2003),wasfeasibleforanalyzinglargedatasets sequencing error. We preferred a conservative curation
HominoidAncestralPopulationSizes 1981
M 04443514432 toavoidtheriskofbiasoroverfiltering,whichmayremove
H 4.4.4.4.4.4.4.5.4.4.4. genuinelyvariablesites.Ourdatasetstatistics(seeResults)
j O 80722319220 showed that we obtained high-quality continuous align-
a’s H 3.4.3.4.4.4.4.4.4.4.4. ments of ;500 bp. Residual sequencing errors were dealt
Kimur HG 3.43.73.04.34.34.44.24.94.44.34.1 withCunodmeprlethteewexastetnhdeerdefimnoeddeiln.clusiveautosomaldataset,
fromwhich2datasetsofneutrallyevolvinglociwerecom-
C 63232411242
H 3.4.4.4.4.4.4.5.4.4.4. piled.ThefirstwascalledNeutral.StartingwithComplete,
weremovedlociwithin1kbofUCSCknowngenes(Hsu
24128865058
M 74734838854 etal.2006). Wealso removedsome lociidentified byRe-
666666676654
O 000000000008
0.0.0.0.0.0.0.0.0.0.0.0. peatMasker (Smit AFA, Hubley R, and Green P, unpub-
lished data), including noncoding RNA genes, simple
98658737368
M 74023727743 sequence repeats, and low-complexity regions. However,
667666676654
G 0.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.8 we masked only a small subset of transposable elements
(TEs) in families that were potentially active in the past
24647746079
M 51112616632 40 Myr (see below). We also masked segmental duplica-
666666676654
C 0.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.8 tions identified by the UCSC browser table for hg18. Re-
maining loci were uncharacterized but assumed to be
M 3513131225641162573329 neutrally evolving. From a separate curated data set Com-
666666676655
H 0.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.8 pleteX,thesameprocedureswereappliedtoX-linkedloci
es to compile the Neutral X data set.
c
stan O 3943804623473593723444213713522860 The second autosomal data set was called Inert TE.
Di G 0.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.8 Here, in contrast to the conventional masking approach
69 (above) that assumes uncharacterized loci are neutral, we
C
wiseJ CO 0.03690.03470.03750.03360.03480.03600.03340.04080.03580.03400.02770.80 ploogseitniveteilcyeivdiednetnicfieedfowrneellu-ctrhaalirtayc.teArilzaerdgeTpErolpoocritiwointhofpphryi--
air mate genomesisrecognizable transposons, mostof which
P
O 3533453733343463573314063543382780 havebeenassignedtowell-characterizedfamiliesforwhich
H 000000000008 detailed dated phylogenies are available (see below). We
0.0.0.0.0.0.0.0.0.0.0.0.
selected elements, identified by RepeatMasker, known to
09150424768 have been inert evolutionary fossils for at least 40 Myr.
G 21182516171716191716131
C 000000000008 In practice, there was considerable overlap between the
0.0.0.0.0.0.0.0.0.0.0.0.
NeutralandInertTEdatasets.Themajordifferenceswere
57838192457 thatInertTEincludedintronictransposonsthatwereabsent
G 19182416161715191716132
H 000000000008 fromNeutral,andthatNeutralincludeduncharacterizedin-
0.0.0.0.0.0.0.0.0.0.0.0.
tergenicuniquesequence.InertTEwaspartitionedintothe
62317802148 4 major primate TE classes as follows:
HC 01301201201201201201201401301200870
0.0.0.0.0.0.0.0.0.0.0.0. Longinterspersed nuclearelements(LINEs): Theyoung
LINE families L1H, L1P1-3, and L1PA1-7 were
bp) recently active and were removed; older L1Ps and all
(
e L1MshavebeeninertsinceOldWorldmonkey(OWM)
z 24048135277
Si 7069204950323121292347 divergence and were included (Khan et al. 2006). The
n
ea Lyon repeat hypothesis (Lyon 1998) proposed a func-
M
tionalroleforLINEsontheXchromosome,butexclusion
oci bold. ofX-enrichedL1elements(Baileyetal.2000)fromour
L n data made little difference to the results, and they were
mberof 50,32148,467 48,46714,66319,1929,8779,0414,2132,810783 hlightedi Shionrctliundteerdspinertsheedrnesuuclltesasrheolewmne.nts (SINEs): Progressive
Nu hig enrichment of Alu SINEs in GC-rich regions has led to
are speculationaboutafunctionalrole(Landeretal.2001),but
Table1DataSetStatistics DataSet Datarefinement(a)Uncuratedrawalignments(b)IncorporateC,Massembly(c)2100-bpends(removed)(cid:3)(d)CompleteNeutralInertTELINESINELTRretrotransposonDNAtransposonNeutralX/dd(X)(A) Resultsfortheprincipaldatasets LotaacAAimdnhnpgaogcletoupaugecniserJeaotneosa,enbrspmrrdsSotsmeeiouxernAntsfirs1goncesl,luead(yreral–Qe,unronAtelrroufrdepieolnecguepvnSlhoaeeyitmgunterianu1tt(ectehMsttn1aeiowe(clt9LIpslyeR9eivTorcl(2)a(eiRuBEc)r(rn.iLi)aeRangstcatzceVrionAeoelluemdstrnlrc)deuobtreeiYatipodvernnanr,teadfonn;aatabislmsop.piaDnn2uibowlr0elysyieiyi0ofsnorwy1neiuit)dnsanhnm:geasgegrneaeirdvespmxTelerctehlmoh2lemeueb0cfadare0tAloeieibn2oanmldlt)nnues-;.
1982 BurgessandYang
retroviruses, which lost infectivity but retained the e , e , and e to the lengths of branches leading to C, G,
C G O
ability to transpose within the host genome. However, andOinthegenetrees(fig.1).Asthebranchlengthismea-
the evolutionary dynamics of moderate and low-copy suredasthenumberofchangespersite,theeshererepre-
ERV families are often uncertain and may include sent the error rate per base pair. Each of e , e , and e is
C G O
reinfection (Bannert and Kurth 2006). Accordingly, we assigned the gamma prior G(1, 1000), with mean 0.0010
adopted a conservative approach, including only the and95%credibilityinterval(CI)0.0003–0.0037.Notethat
well-characterized ancient nonautonomous mammalian thegammadistributionG(a,b)hasmeana/bandvariance
LTR retrotransposons (MaLR) and LTR class III (or a/b2.Posteriordistributionsofe ,e ,ande aregenerated
C G O
ERV-L),whichareinertinhigherprimates(Smit1993; by the MCMC algorithm. Because accommodating errors
Lander et al. 2001). inM(bytheuseofparametere )wouldcreateanidentifi-
M
DNA transposons: There is no evidence of DNA trans- abilityproblem,e isnotestimated.Insomeanalyses,e is
M M
poson activity in the past 50 Myr, so all were included assignedafixedvaluetomodelahighermutationratespe-
(Lander et al. 2001). cific to the macaque lineage, as proposed in the hominoid
slowdown hypothesis.
An assumption of the model is free recombination
Ourmodel assumes that errors affect sites andloci at
between loci. There is at present no definitive biological
random,atthesamerateforthewholespecies.Iftheerror
model for patterns of recombination over evolutionary
rate varies overgenomicregions(e.g., due todifferent se-
time. Recombination appears to be concentrated at poorly
quencing coverage), it may be more realistic to let e vary
characterized hot spots, which are not conserved even
among loci according to a prior. This is not pursued here.
between humans and chimpanzees (Ptak et al. 2005). We
calculated an order-of-magnitude estimate of therecombi-
nationratebyconsideringthetotallengthofthehumange- Variable Mutation Rates among Loci
nome linkage map, ;3000 cM (Kong et al. 2004), across
the3(cid:3)109bpgenome,implyingameanrateofc(cid:1)10(cid:2)8 We implement 2 methods to accommodate variable
mutation rates among loci. In the first, fixed-rates model,
perbasepair pergeneration. Withagenerationtime of15
we estimate the relative mutation rate for each locus by
years,thisamountsto1crossoverper1.5kbperMyr.Thus,
theaverageJC69distancesbetweenmacaqueandthe4apes:
a minimum separation of 10 kb between loci seemed ade-
quatetoapproximatetheassumptionoffreerecombination
dHCGO-M5ðdHM þ dCM þ dGM þ dOMÞ=4: ð2Þ
overthetimescaleofhominoidandOWMevolution.Loci
were culled accordingly as the final step in preparation of Thisaveragedistanceisscaledsuchthatthemeanacrossall
the Neutral and Inert TE data sets. lociis1,andtheresultingrelativeratesareusedtoanalyze
data from 4 species only (HCGO) (Yang 2002).
The second model, referred to as the random-rates
Bayesian Inference
model, assumes random rate variation among loci. Let
We use the Bayesian method of Rannala and Yang the rate for locus i be r, with i 5 1, 2, ..., L. To avoid
i
(2003; see also Yang 2002), implemented in the overparameterization, the average rate is fixed at one:
MCMCCOAL program. The method can be used to an- (cid:1)r5PL r=L51. Parameters hs and ss are then defined
i51 i
alyze sequence data from multiple loci from several using (cid:1)r. We assign a Dirichlet prior on the transformed
closelyrelatedspecies,accountingforthespeciesphylog- variables y 5 r/L, i 5 1, 2, ..., L.
i i
enyandrandomcoalescenteventsinextantandancestral
species. The JC69 mutation model (Jukes and Cantor CðLaÞ YL XL
fðy ;y ;...;y jaÞ5 ya(cid:2)1; y.0; y 51:
1969) is used for its computational efficiency and for 1 2 L ½CðaÞ(cid:4)L i i i
the well-known robustness of analysis of highly similar i51 i51
sequences to the assumed mutation model. Here the role ð3Þ
ofthemutationmodelistocorrectformultiplehitstoes-
The marginal mean and variance are E(y) 5 1/L and
timatethegenetreetopologyandbranchlengths.Inpre- i
var(y) 5 (L (cid:2) 1)/[L2(La þ 1)]. Thus, the prior density
vious studies, parsimony and neighbor-joining produced i
on the rates, r 5 Ly, i 5 1, 2, ..., L, is
similar trees, and within the apes, even the infinite sites i i
model produced very similar estimates to the finite-sites L
model (Satta et al. 2004). More complex models such as fðr1;r2;...;rLjaÞ 5 CCððLaaÞLÞ Qðri=LÞa(cid:2)1(cid:3) L1L
HKYþC (Hasegawa et al. 1985; Yang 1994) are thus i51
deemed unnecessary in such analysis. The basic model 5 CðLaÞ YL ra(cid:2)1; r.0;
assumesneutralevolutionataconstantmutationrate,free ½LaCðaÞ(cid:4)L i i
i51
recombinationbetweenloci,andnorecombinationwithin L
P
a locus. Several extensions to the basic model are intro- ri5L:
duced in this study. i51
ð4Þ
Model of Sequencing Errors and Violation of the
WehaveE(r) 5 1,var(r) 5 (L (cid:2) 1)/(La þ 1)(cid:1)1/afor
Molecular Clock i i
large L, and corr(r, r) 5 1/(L (cid:2) 1). Parameter a is thus
i j
The human sequences are assumed to be error free. inverselyrelatedtotheextentofratevariationamongloci,
Sequencing errors in C, G, and O are modeled by adding andtheimpactofthepriorcanbeassessedbychanginga.
HominoidAncestralPopulationSizes 1983
Note that both equations (3) and (4) are (L (cid:2) 1)- pliedtotheNeutraldataset,toexaminetheimpactofmodel
dimensional densities. The first (L (cid:2) 1) rates are working assumptions about neutrality, mutation rate variation, and
variablesintheMCMC,withthelastrater 5L(cid:2)PL(cid:2)1r. recombinationandtoassessthesensitivityofposteriores-
L i51 i
Aslidingwindowisusedtoupdater,i 5 1,2,...,L (cid:2) 1. timates to the prior. We describe these results first, which
The new rate is generated as r(cid:5);Ui (cid:1)r (cid:2)e(cid:2)2;r þe(cid:2)2(cid:3), alsoservetoidentifythebestmodelforourdata.Wethen
i i i
reflected into the feasible range (0, r þ r ) if necessary, presentanddiscussparameterestimatesobtainedunderthe
withr(cid:5)5r (cid:2)(cid:1)r(cid:5)(cid:2)r(cid:3).TheproposalriatioiLsone.Theprior bestmodelfromtheComplete,InertTE,andNeutralXdata
L L i i
ratio of the move is, according to equation (4), sets.
Underthebasicmodel(RannalaandYang2003),we
f(cid:1)r1;r2;...;ri(cid:5);...;rL(cid:5)(cid:4)(cid:4)a(cid:3) 5(cid:5)ri(cid:5)rL(cid:5)(cid:6)a(cid:2)1: ð5Þ assignedthesamediffusegammapriorG(2,500)tothe4h
fðr ;r ;...;r;...;r jaÞ rr parameters,withmean0.0040and95%CI0.0005–0.0111.
1 2 i L i L
Diffusegammapriorswerealsoassignedtothesparame-
ters: G(4, 606) for s , G(4, 465) for s , G(4, 219) for
HC HCG
Implementation of Bayesian MCMC Algorithm sHCGO, and G(4, 131) for sHCGOM, with means 0.0066,
0.0086, 0.01826, and 0.0305, respectively. Those prior
Foreachanalysis,werantheMCMCCOALalgorithm means were calculated using the species divergence times
at least 3 times to confirm convergence. The MCMC was of Steiper and Young (2006) and the mutation rate 10(cid:2)9
foundtohavegoodconvergenceandmixingproperties.For changes per site per year.
analysesunderdifferentmodels,weusedaburn-inof5,000 The posterior means of the parameters are shown in
iterations and then took 25,000 samples at every second table 2, row a. The 95% equal-tail CIs are narrow around
iteration. The SD across the 3 runs was ,0.5% of the the mean, indicating the information content of this large
posteriormeanofthesameparameter.Forthemajorresults, data set. At theposterior mean parameter values, the gene
weranlongerchains,with10,000iterationsforburn-inthen tree for H,C, and Gis expectedto differ from the species
100,000samples.Therewasnoapparentdifferencebetween treeatP 5 29%oftheloci(eq.1).Thisislowerthanthe
SG
the long and short runs. P 5 40% in the phylogenetic analysis of a similar data
SE
set by Ebersberger et al. (2007), but as discussed earlier,
P is an overestimate of P due to tree reconstruction
SE SG
errors.Ebersbergeretal.thenconsideredonlylociatwhich
Results
the approximate posterior probability for the gene tree
Data Compilation and Quality
exceeded 0.95, obtaining the mismatch probability 0.23.
Table1(rowsa–d)showsourupdatingandrefinement This is a serious underestimate because conflicting gene
of the HCGOM alignments of Patterson et al. (2006), by treestendtohaveshorterinternalbranchlengthsandweak-
incorporating recent high-quality assembly sequence for ersupportthanmatchinggenetrees,andapplicationofthe
C and M and by trimming 200 bp at the error-prone ends cutoff must have disproportionally removed conflicting
of the alignments. Improvement of data quality was indi- gene trees. Our estimate, lying between 0.23 and 0.40,
cated by reduction in pairwise distance estimates, better is thus qualitatively consistent with the estimates of
conformity with the molecular clock, and approximately Ebersberger et al.
equal estimates of the transition/transversion rate ratio j
(a/b in the notation of Kimura 1980) for all species pairs. Random Sequencing Errors or Violation of the Clock?
Itwasapparentthatsequencingerrorsshowalowerjthan
mutations.OurcuratedHCdistanceestimate(0.0121)was Afterdatarefinement,theNeutraldatasetstillshowed
almost identical to the genome-wide estimate provided by some branch length variation. By comparison with the H
the Chimpanzee Sequencing and Analysis Consortium lineage and with reference to outgroup M, excess branch
(0.0123) (Mikkelsen et al. 2005). lengths were 0.0002 (50.0627 – 0.0625) in C, 0.0013 in
Thiscurationprocessyieldedtheinclusiveautosomal G, and 0.0023 in O (table 1). We analyzed the excess
datasetComplete.Fromit,weselectedourprincipalauto- branchlengthsbycountingsitepatternsforspeciestriplets
somaldatasetNeutralbytheconventionalmethodofmask- (table3).Theproportionsofsiteswithtransitional(S)and
ingfunctionalregions.(FortheXchromosome,aseparate transversional (V) differences were counted on each line-
NeutralXdatasetwascompiledbythesamemethod.)Our age. We subtracted the counts for H from the counts for
secondautosomaldataset,InertTE,containsonlyTEsthat each of C, G, and O to obtain excess proportions S and
are well characterized and known to have been inert evo- VfortheC,G,andOlineages.Thenjwasestimatedunder
lutionary fossils for at least 40 Myr. We also analyzed 4 the K80 model
partitionsofInertTEcorrespondingtothe4majorclasses
jˆ52 (cid:3) logð1 (cid:2) 2S (cid:2) VÞ=logð1 (cid:2) 2VÞ (cid:2) 1 ð6Þ
of primate TE: LINEs, SINEs, LTR retrotransposons, and
DNA transposons. (Kimura 1980; Jukes 1987). This is close to 2S/V when S
andVaresmall.Thehumansequencewasassumedtohave
noerrors,providingagoodestimateofjduetoevolution,
Analysis of the Neutral Data Set
at4.6.IfalltheexcessinCwasduetosequencingerrors,j
Basic Model
for sequencing errors was ;1.6. Accordingly, the j esti-
BoththebasicmodelofRannalaandYang(2003)and mates suggest that the excess for Oðjˆ52:2Þ was mainly
the extended models implemented in this article were ap- duetosequencingerrors,whereastheexcessforGðjˆ53:6Þ
1984 BurgessandYang
PSG 0.290.310.330.310.31 C,and waragsummeonret rceolinesdisotenntthweitahssaumhipgthioernetvhoaltuetivoonlaurtyiornataen.dThseis-
–1.8) –1.9)–1.8) forH, qoufetnhceinfigniesrhroedrsghoarvielladiastnindcotrjanragtuiotasn.Tgheenoevmeentausaslermelbelaieses
eO 1.7(1.5Fixed1.7(1.61.7(1.5 probability mmoaydarPeteavrbeaarmalntehcteehrtslreueneCge,txhetGve,anratinoadfticoelnoOcfwokrevCrieo,lGiant,tiroaonnddiunOctehddeusteeotsoapceecicotihmeesr-.
–1.2)–1.7)–1.2)–1.2) match species-specificsequencingerrorsorviolationoftheclock
eG 1.01.51.01.0 mis (fig.1).AgammapriorG(1,1000),withmean0.0010and
(((( e 95%CI0.0003–0.0037,wasassignedoneache.Thepos-
1.11.61.11.1 netre teriormeanswere0.0002foreC,0.0011foreG,and0.0017
C 1–0.3)5–0.6)1–0.3)1–0.3) tree–ge lfeonrgetOhs(toabbtlaein2e)d. Tbhyessiemwpleeredissitmanilcaer ctoalcthuelaetixocnesss(0b.0ra0n0c2h,
e 0.2(0.0.6(0.0.2(0.0.2(0. species 0.001T3h,eanindtr0o.d0u0c2t3io,nreosfpeectpivarealym;esteeersahbaodvemainnidmtaalbleeff1e)c.t
OM 2–26.5)8–26.1) 0–29.5)2–24.6) isthePSG oe(trnabealssetiem2x)a.cteeAssssofbehxraspn.ecTchtheedled,nievgsethragsnednwcetehreteimacecoscrro(esmsspm)oboneddcaiantmegdessbsmyhaalelds-
sHCG (26.(25. (29.(24. used. strongnegativecorrelations(table4).Furthermore,thepriors
26.426.0NA29.224.4 asnot ossn(essuphpaldemviertnutaalrlyytnaobleefSfe1c,tSounpppolesmteerinotrareystMimaatteersiaolfohnslinane)d.
et 4.7)3.8)3.8)4.5)4.6) ewM Overall,theeffectsofaccommodatingsequencingerrorsin
NeutralfortheDataS ssHCGHCGO 6.7(6.7–6.8)14.6(14.5–16.2(6.1–6.3)13.7(13.6–15.9(5.8–6.0)13.6(13.5–16.3(6.2–6.4)14.3(14.2–16.3(6.2–6.4)14.5(14.3–1 fixed,whereasinothermodels, tittsThhnhaehbeeaqetlnuhmeudereTneno1scshccd,uuiueeenrlrrslotgaamstwwtiteemeowreddrdaraeoee.tdrdrelesaTmasatotshaaisdfhni.wsisoofsefweerdet,lq,alnrputeasaaseidtnarnssttcpcleityosuaitntnbribwigscloeeisaudces5saefro.ruarkoarlsUnibregwsonlnoywdhwmfeifncaterrhohsnttemohtaswell(ioseesnbwoesrcaetelisaeumMisprdchrapeeoomtltrehiwmesoordnadadotnesebit)lyons-,.
ntModels sHC (4.0–4.2)(3.7–3.9)(3.5–3.8)(3.8–4.0)(3.8–4.0) 50.0082was tew(acxieocnrmeeepdpgtarftrerheoaetmwlmyittohrhesettdaudcbciulseertdaa2tne)ut.dnaAdnNescereeustxthtrpreaaellcmptdeooaddpt,aeutlhlsaoeetftipo.sonHes,qotteuhwreeienovdcrieienfrfsg,etirfmeeornrracotaeerlsssl
re 4.13.83.73.93.9 M of error rates (es) were much higher than for Neutral. Be-
e e
underDiff hHCGOM (11.5–12.2)(11.5–12.2) (4.8–5.8)(6.4–7.2) oidslowdown, cimtthaeousedsceeaumtetrheaeatdenmdlyikodredealemtyalatphisenearittfnotgahrnmeldoemwdthoewadrteelletllhvweoeolniunotlfhfdeisrsseeuunqcncuceceeunswrcsafiatnuesgldlyreodrabarcutoacsrostsmeittno-,
eters 11.811.8NA5.36.8 Homin acaspmedallthneucmubraetrioonf psproucrieosus.s alignments that may have es-
parentheses)ofParam hhHCGHCGO 3.4(3.3–3.5)6.1(5.9–6.4)3.3(3.2–3.4)6.1(5.8–6.3)3.5(3.4–3.6)6.1(5.8–6.4)3.3(3.2–3.4)4.9(4.7–5.2)3.2(3.2–3.3)4.7(4.4–5.0) 3ametersarescaledby10.In(e)equation(1). tTCDihshoie2venNemrterrNggfoioboeedrunnteeetelc,irteoithashntaeigtooiatnfvhvseeAe,nraneavqcbgueeyersivatHrgaa–leelCcnPotdoatiollvyeeamsrcdgoeiernsnpttachtneiimscdmeeHobCtfoeehtxwH/2pe–(eeCc5nte2d2aNullngedllee)sr.
Table2PosteriorMeansand95%CIs(in hHC (a)Basicmodel6.5(6.0–6.9)(b)Sequencingerrors6.2(5.8–6.6)(c)Fixed-ratesmodel6.3(5.8–6.9)(d)Random-ratesmodel6.1(5.7–6.6)(e)Hominoidslowdown6.1(5.7–6.6) hseN.—NA,notapplicable;,,andparOTEG,calculatedusingtheparameterestimatesby ewnh12teedrrHienCPg55þþþþHthCss12121212e5HHPPPPHCCeHHHH(cid:2)þCCCCCþ2PPPP12ðasHHHH(cid:1)n12HC1CCCCchGGGGGe(cid:2)H(cid:2)s(cid:1)P(cid:1)PCstPh1HrHHaCHþHCCÞl(cid:2)C=CGGphG(cid:3)OO12HoOhPC(cid:1)hPpHhHHHiu(cid:2)CsHCCClaGCGþt(cid:1)hthGOOihe12oHOM(cid:3)HPnMChp;CGHHrGdo(cid:3)(cid:2)CCobG(cid:1)(cid:2)anO1hboHhi(cid:2)tlCHictGCyoPO(cid:3)atH(cid:3)lheCasGtc(cid:3)2ehiaHnlCletGðhl7easÞt
HominoidAncestralPopulationSizes 1985
Table 3
Proportions ofSites with Transitional(S) andTransversional (V) Differences whenthe Human IsComparedwith Another
Ape in theNeutral DataSet
HumanLineage ExcessintheOtherApeLineageoverHuman
SpeciesTriplet TotalSites S(SXX) V(VXX) j S(XSX–SXX) V(XVX–VXX) j
HC–M 23,285,394 0.003933 0.001727 4.57 0.000068 0.000084 1.61
HG–M 23,264,472 0.004931 0.002164 4.58 0.000778 0.000429 3.63
HO–M 14,034,931 0.010072 0.004363 4.66 0.001287 0.001152 2.24
NOTE.—HiscomparedwithC,G,orO,withtheoutgroupMusedasreference.Forexample,HandCarecomparedinthefirstrow.Theproportionofsiteswithpattern
SXX(wherehumanhasatransitionaldifferencewhileCandMareidentical)is0.003933.TheproportionofsiteswithpatternVXX(wherehumanhasatransversional
difference)is0.001727.These2proportionsgivej54.57byequation(6).Similarly,transitionsandtransversionsarecountedfortheClineage.Theexcessproportionsof
transitionsandtransversionsfortheClineageovertheHlineageareshowninthetable;thesegivethejestimate1.61.Rows2and3aresimilarcomparisonsforHGandHO.
population (see eq. 1), and PHCG5e(cid:2)2ðsHCGO(cid:2)sHCGÞ=hHCG and tion of ancestral polymorphism to H–C sequence diver-
PHCGO5e(cid:2)2ðsHCGOM(cid:2)sHCGOÞ=hHCGO are defined similarly. gence was unchanged, at 39%.
With the parameter estimates from the Neutral data set
under the basic model (table 2, row a), equation (7)
Rate Variation among Loci
gave 1dˆ 50:00410þ0:00181þ0:00074þ0:00001þ
2 HC
0:0000050:00666,implyingthat39%ofthedivergencebe- Wefirstimplementedthefixed-ratesmodel,usingma-
tweenHandCisduetoancestralpolymorphism(contributed caque to estimate relative rates (eq. 2) and analyzing data
by the last 4 terms in eq. 7). from4speciesonly(HCGO).Again,sequencingerrorsinC
However,thepredicteddivergence1dˆ 50:00666dif- andGwereaccommodatedbye ande .Withtheremoval
2 HC C G
fered from the average JC69 distance d /2 5 0.01270/ ofmacaque,e couldnotbeestimatedbecauseitwascon-
HC O
2 5 0.00635 of table 1. Here we treat the JC69 distances foundedwiths .Instead,e wasfixedat0.00173,the
HCGO O
asobservationstoassessthefitofthemodeltodata.Similar estimateundertherandom-ratesmodel(seebelow).Thees-
comparisons of predicted and observed H–G, H–O, and timatesofhandsforthe3ancestralpopulationsHC,HCG,
H–M distances did not show such a discrepancy (results andHCGO(table2,rowc)weresimilartothoseobtained
not shown). We note that only the H–C and HC–G diver- undertheassumptionofthesamemutationrateforallloci
gencesaresufficientlycloseintimetogenerateasignificant (table 2, row b).
proportion of gene tree–species tree mismatches, and the The fixed-rates model estimated relative rates using
treemismatchinformationinthedataishighlyinformative macaque data by ignoring polymorphism in the ancestor
abouttheparametersinequation(1)(h ,s ,ands ). HCGOM, which might be substantial if N were
HC HC HCG HCGOM
Under the basic model, it appeared that the excess branch large. We thus implemented the random-rates model, in
lengthinGduetosequencingerrorscouldnotbereconciled which rates for loci were assigned the Dirichlet prior
withthe treemismatchinformation inthe data, resulting in (eq. 4), with parameter a inversely related to the extent
a poor fit to the observed HC distance. of rate variation among loci. We used a 5 25, so that
Thefitimprovedconsiderablywhensequencingerrors the relative rates have SD 0.2 in the prior, slightly lower
were accommodated in the model. As no errors were than the empirical SD (0.278) calculated by equation (2)
assumed on the H lineage, the predicted average H–C for the fixed-rates model. The estimate for h
HCGOM
divergence was equal to the 5 terms of equation (7) plus (0.0053) was about half that obtained under the basic
1e , or 1dˆ 50:00385þ0:00165þ0:00077þ0:00002þ model. The inversely correlated parameter s in-
2 C 2 HC (cid:2) HCGOM
0:00000þ0:00020 250:00639 (using parameter estimates creased slightly from 0.0260 to 0.0292. Parameters for
from table 2, row b). This was very close to the observed morerecentancestralpopulations(HC,HCG,HCGO)were
value d /2 5 0.00635 (table 1). The estimated contribu- well estimated and changed little (table 2, row d).
HC
Table 4
Correlationbetween Parametersin thePosteriorDistribution
h h h h s s s s e e
HC HCG HCGO HCGOM HC HCG HCGO HCGOM C G
h (cid:2)0.26
HCG
h 0.01 (cid:2)0.04
HCGO
h 0.00 (cid:2)0.03 (cid:2)0.12
HCGOM
s 20.77 0.19 (cid:2)0.02 0.03
HC
s 0.20 20.42 0.00 0.06 0.21
HCG
s 0.01 0.12 20.67 0.10 0.18 0.31
HCGO
s 0.00 0.05 0.13 20.90 0.03 0.05 0.01
HCGOM
e 0.01 0.00 0.02 (cid:2)0.05 20.41 20.53 (cid:2)0.27 (cid:2)0.03
C
e (cid:2)0.03 0.00 0.02 (cid:2)0.05 (cid:2)0.25 20.59 (cid:2)0.28 (cid:2)0.04 0.40
G
e (cid:2)0.01 (cid:2)0.08 (cid:2)0.02 (cid:2)0.03 (cid:2)0.15 (cid:2)0.27 20.43 (cid:2)0.09 0.23 0.24
O
NOTE.—TheNeutraldatasetwasanalyzedundertherandom-ratesmodel(Table2,rowd).Strongcorrelationsarehighlightedinbold.
1986 BurgessandYang
G 71 WechangedaintheDirichletpriortoassessthesen-
PS 0.20.3 sitivitytotheprior(supplementarytableS2,Supplementary
9) Materialonline). EstimatesofhHCGOM,andtoalesserde-
2. grees ,weresensitivetoa.However,parameteres-
O 7– HCGOM
e 2. timatesfortheotherpopulations(HC,HCG,HCGO)were
(
8 stable, showing little change with wide variation in the
2.
prior. We concluded that this data set contained sufficient
9) informationonratevariationamonglocitoobtainreliable
3.
G 8– estimates for all populations except the earliest,HCGOM.
e (3. Accordingly,estimatesforh wereconsideredunreli-
9 HCGOM
3. able and were discarded from our final results; s
HCGOM
1) estimates were retained but should be considered
1. approximate.
–
C 0
e 1.
(
1
1. Hominoid Slowdown
7)0) Thereisconsiderableevidenceforaratedifferencebe-
6.9.
OM 5–27–2 tweenOWMsandthegreatapes(Goodman1961;Lietal.
sHCG (26.(28. 1an99a6p;pYroipertiaatle.o2u0t0g2r;oKupimtoeptraolv.i2d0e0n6e).wOiunrfodramtaatsieotnlaacbkoeudt
68
6.8. such a rate difference; but if it exists, it might affect our
22
estimates.WeranMCMCCOALwithe 5 0.0082fixed.
7)4) M
5.4. Thisrepresentedaone-thirdhighermutationrateonthema-
11
O –– caque lineage than inthe apes. As would beexpected, the
G 53
sHC (15.(14. posteriorestimateofsHCGOMbecamemuchsmaller(table2,
63 row e). However, our estimates for population sizes and
a 5.4.
at 11 speciationtimesinthe3morerecentancestralpopulations
D
ated CG 8–7.8)2–6.3) (fHerCen,cHeCinGm,HutCatGioOn)rwateerebertowbeuesnttOoWtheMpraonpdotsheedhlaormgeindoiifd-
ur sH (7.(6. lineage.
Unc 7.86.2
he 7)9) Robustness to Priors
t 4.3.
from sHC 6(4.6–8(3.8– timatTesheweafsfeacstsoesfshedanidnssuppripolresmoennptaorsytetraibolrepsaSra3maentderSe4s-,
ed 4.3. Supplementary Material online. Again, posterior distribu-
n
ai 0) tionswerefoundtoberobusttodrasticchangesinthepri-
metersObt hHCGOM 4.8(14.6–15.8.7(8.4–9.0) onoinrafgsri.rnobfIwoonrthmscuoaemtnxifiocmendaseisrnnycb,tehrwaeinendctaheftoravl.ueaWnnldsge,thrcrosoebflnauecnscldtutnidnereasgdtsettthhvoaeatralailaaclrtcgipooernmioamarmmsoodoauannntgd-t
ra 1 locididnotoverspecifythemodelfortheNeutraldataset.
s)forPa hHCGO (7.1–7.)(5.5–5.8) Locus Length and Within-Locus Recombination
e 26
es 7.5. Withanaveragelocuslengthof508bp(Neutraldata
h
arent G –4.5)–3.9) 310 suentr)e,atlhiestiacssouvmerptthioentiomfensocarleecoofmhboimnaintiooindwevitohliuntiaonlo.cInusoirs-
Is(inp hHC 4.4(4.43.8(3.8 scaledby ddseeagrtamtoseentatssoswfesaitshspthpeecroifiigmeredpsalsecinvtgeoltyhf frsrehocomormtaebrrailnnoadctioiombny,psowasemitigpoelninnwegriatohtenidne
C e
and95% hHC 7.0(6.8–7.2)6.2(6.0–6.4) eparametersar rmreeeaccacoothemmslbbowiicnnouaausttliidooinnnvatwwhryoeeruecNlodaenuhsstaierdvraieelorauadbsagltpyraeroawstbeeilttreh.mimWlo,pcetahucesptrlpeoeadnnrigacltmothenedgbteeetrrhcaaesutestsgiie-f-
Table5PosteriorMeans BasicmodelSequencingerrors hsN.—,,andOTE mTrddTeaihhdeftfeunaues.tcr9s,Nee.5onde%Tut,vrhfrereepCrofltahmIrerseeacslmttbeuhisenleostcgtss,eaetrmtohhoefeeebsptttrwhiaoemiiidssndtaueeetacdrerniesoafdwrrdloyhimindmseifensnoatorhnatmhtesreeaaffpotusisprolhelehn-goalsmwercwnnoetgoenntirtthbneesendnittzaaogebtitranelvewasettehral6tyyes..
HominoidAncestralPopulationSizes 1987
Table 6
PosteriorMeansand95%CIs(inparentheses)ofParameterswhenShorterLociWereSampledfromtheNeutralDataSet
LocusLength h h h s s s s P
HC HCG HCGO HC HCG HCGO HCGOM SG
508 6.2(5.8–6.6) 3.3(3.2–3.4) 6.1(5.8–6.3) 3.8(3.7–3.9) 6.2(6.1–6.3) 13.7(13.6–13.8) 26.0(25.8–26.1) 0.31
333 6.7(6.1–7.4) 3.5(3.3–3.6) 5.9(5.6–6.2) 3.7(3.5–3.8) 6.0(6.0–6.1) 13.6(13.4–13.8) 25.5(25.3–25.7) 0.33
200 7.3(6.4–8.3) 3.7(3.5–3.8) 6.5(6.2–6.9) 3.5(3.3–3.7) 5.9(5.8–6.0) 13.2(13.0–13.4) 25.2(24.9–25.4) 0.35
100 7.8(6.1–9.6) 4.2(4.0–4.4) 7.1(6.6–7.6) 3.4(3.1–3.7) 5.6(5.5–5.8) 12.9(12.6–13.2) 24.5(24.2–24.9) 0.37
50 6.9(4.4–10.1) 4.6(4.2–5.0) 8.3(7.5–9.1) 3.4(2.9–3.9) 5.4(5.2–5.6) 12.2(11.7–12.6) 23.7(23.1–24.2) 0.38
NOTE.—Themodelofsequencingerrorsisused,withhandsparametersscaledby103andresultsforhHCGOMarenotshown.Forthesamples,errorratesarenot
estimatedbutarefixedattheposteriormeansestimatedforthefull-lengthdataset(table2,secondrow).PSGisthetreemismatchprobabilityforH,C,andG.
sensitivetotheeffectsofwithin-locusrecombination.How- a divergence time for calibration. We calibrated to the
ever, ignoring model violations such as within-locus re- human–chimpanzee divergence time (T ), with 2 values
HC
combination may have caused the 95% CIs in our main used:4and6Myr.Fourmillionyearsistheminimumtime
analyses to be too narrow. consistentwithwidelyacceptedfossilevidenceforH–Cdi-
This analysis also highlighted the superiority of the vergence(Leakeyetal.1995),whereasmorecontroversial
full likelihood method over the tree-mismatch method fossilevidence(Senutetal.2001;Brunetetal.2002)might
(see Introduction). Our Bayesian analysis produced quite requireanearlierdivergenceatabout6Myr.Thegeneration
reasonableestimatesevenwheneachlocuscontainedonly time was assumed to be g 5 15 years. Modern humans
50sites,withonaveragelessthanonepairwisedifference have longer generation times, but ancestral species were
betweenH,C,andG.TheprobabilityP ofmismatchbe- probably physically smaller, perhaps similar to modern
SG
tweenthespeciestreeandthegenetree,calculatedfromthe macaques,whichhaveg(cid:1)11years(Gage1998).Thecali-
parameter estimates, increased only slightly from 31% for brated results are shown in table 8.
thefull-lengthdatato38%fortheshortestloci(table6and CalibrationtoT 5 4Myrimpliedamutationrateof
HC
fig.2).However,theprobabilityP ofmismatchbetween 0.98(cid:3)10(cid:2)9persiteperyearfortheNeutraldataset.This
SE
thespeciestreeandtheestimatedgenetree,whichisused was similar to the commonly used rate l 5 10(cid:2)9 per site
bythetree-mismatch method,increasedto59%(fig. 2).It per year (e.g., Takahata et al. 1995; Rannala and Yang
was noteworthy that even with the full-length data, P 2003). The population size for the HC ancestor (N )
SE HC
(0.41) was considerably higher than P (0.31), so errors was estimated to be ;105, about 10 times larger than esti-
SG
in tree reconstruction have a considerable impact on the matesformodernhumans.ThisisconsistentwithTakahata’s
simple tree-mismatch method. (1993) early estimate from analysis of MHC alleles and is
muchlargerthantheestimatesofYang(2002)andRannala
and Yang (2003) from the data of 53 loci of Chen and Li
Analysis of the Complete and Inert TE Data Sets (2001). The latter data set may be atypical in having an
From the above analysis, we consider the random-
ratesmodelincorporatingsequencingerrorstobeourbest 0.6
model.ThiswasusedtoanalyzetheCompleteandInertTE
data sets, with results shown in table 7. For Complete, es-
timatesofhsandsswereallslightlysmallerthanthosefrom es P
theNeutraldataset.Thiscanbeexplainedbythepresence ch 0.5 SE
at
ofasmallproportionofmaskedsitesunderpurifyingselec- m
s
tion.Theratiosofsestimatesbetweenthe2datasetssug- mi
gested that the mutation rate of Complete was about 0.97 e
e 0.4
times that of Neutral. Aside from this rate difference, the of tr P
parameter estimates were almost identical between the 2 n SG
o
data sets. The estimates were evidently robust to any vio- orti
lation of the neutral assumption in this large data set. p 0.3
o
Estimates of hs and ss from the Inert TE data set are Pr
comparablewiththosefromtheNeutralandCompletedata
sets (table 7). However, the estimates suggest some varia-
0.2
tion in mutation rate among the 4 classes of TEs. We dis-
0 100 200 300 400 500
cuss the results below using a calibration to the H–C
Mean locus length (bp)
speciation time.
FIG.2.—Errorsinphylogenetictreereconstructioninflatethespecies
tree–genetreemismatchprobability.P istheprobabilityofmismatch
SG
betweenthespeciestreeandthegenetree,derivedfromthecoalescent
Speciation Times and Ancestral Population Sizes parameter estimates by equation (1), whereas P is the probability of
SE
mismatchbetweenthespeciestreeandtheestimatedgenetree.Bothrefer
TotranslatehsandssintopopulationsizeNsanddi-
to the phylogenetic relationship among H, C, and G. Data sets with
vergencetimeTs,itisnecessarytouseamutationratelor progressivelyshorterloci,usedintable6,areanalyzed.
1988 BurgessandYang
PSG 0.290.310.32 nsfor ucensusaunadllayssmmaallllgveanreiatnrecee–ascpreocsiseslotcreieinmsiesqmuaetncchepdroivpeorrgtieonn-
a
me (P 5 0.203)(Yang2002;Sattaetal.2004).Estimatesfor
SE
6)9)9) or earlier ancestral populations N (55,000) and N
eO (1.4–1.1.61.(–(1.5–1. eposteri (ti8m5e,0s0w0)erweeersetismoamteedwhtoatbsem6a.l4leHMrC.yGTrhfeorspgeocriiellsa,di1v4e.r6gHeMCnGcyOer
1.51.71.7 atth for orangutan, and ;25–30 Myr for macaque.
d
e WhencalibratedtoT ,estimatesfromtheComplete
fix HC
–1.1)1.2)––1.3) were dtiaotnaosfetthweesraemveercyalsiibmraitliaorntotoththeeN4ecultarsasledsaotafTseEt.sAsupgpgleicsats-
eG 1.01.01.1 but that they have different mutation rates (table 8). LINE
((( d
1.11.11.2 mate elements have the lowest mutation rate, with the rate
esti for DNA transposons 6% higher, LTR transposons 11%
eC (0.1–0.2)0.10.3)(–(0.2–0.4) eswerenot himsigaathceecsro,ouafnnNtdesdSafInoNdrE,Tsths1e,7w4%hTihcEhigchaleraers.sseWosmhgeeawnvhethavitsehrriyagthseiemdriitflhfaearrneensthctiee-
0.10.20.3 bclass aenstdimleastsefsorfrTosm).OthneeNreeaustoranlcdoautladsbeett(hbeysmabaoluletr2m5%eanfolorcNuss
u
sHCGOM 28.2(28.1–28.4)29.229.029.5)(–30.9(30.6–31.2)29.6(29.0–30.0)33.8(33.3–34.2)32.9(31.8–33.3)30.9(29.9–31.6)25.5(24.3–26.6) ee,,andforTEsCGOforH,C,andG. lwimfemoniurtpghttaahticthCneito-aN(lnol3oiesf2cbuu1rlptoasretvcairrusnle.sgdsc5iaoltt0eteoman8TbpsgebHietnhtprCaw)).ty,5iaeossaon6or,tniMhsliaymryte2prdt/hli3uynecisanemtsegdlaoad(tdrsh,geeatelehti,neatagatmlbl0elu.rpe6rtoao56ptri(cid:3)uofdolnua1rter0itao(cid:2)httnoee9
ey
DifferentDataSets sCGHCGO 1–6.2)13.9(13.9–14.0)26.4)14.314.214.5)–(–14.4(14.2–14.6)1–6.3)7–5.8)13.1(12.9–13.3)6–6.8)16.3(16.0–16.6)1–6.4)14.3(14.0–14.7)7–6.0)13.2(12.7–13.6)1–5.6)11.7(11.1–12.3) harenotshown.ParametersHCGOMisthetreemismatchprobabilitPSG sttfMs2ihhnoie0zeerey0hemrhm1soco;TaimafanlmonhBcigibrdneailrnrqyouadcmouintiadiieveadilonietcanbrsrcaneergloqcdaTotemuetuwHniasecopCcltde.oneaod(5rt2TwtsiTi0bt.HmHhn0l4ECeeC2emGbMs)e5OeofwsrmoMydtsiser4be)am.srleyieTMaslrwget1bheieye.eeet5mrhrvtoddetiemaidtiumd3veoaea7eneynltr.csteogMoeb(-aoe2tesyhnl0i(ricolnp0Sr.aelder7redeag)nt,hfgieeudmieagrtaialsehstsbcheeouuolroternsftur,sidang4aeaetlgh5desr.
CIs(inparentheses)forParametersObtainedfrom hhssHCGHCGOHCH 3.2(3.1–3.2)4.8(4.7–5.0)3.8(3.8–3.9)6.1(6.3.33.23.4)4.94.75.2)3.93.84.0)6.36.(–(–(–(3.7(3.6–3.8)6.1(5.8–6.4)3.7(3.6–3.8)6.2(6.3.3(3.2–3.5)5.6(5.2–6.0)3.4(3.2–3.5)5.7(5.4.5(4.3–4.7)7.1(6.6–7.7)4.0(3.8–4.2)6.7(6.3.7(3.5–4.0)5.9(5.3–6.6)3.8(3.5–4.0)6.3(6.3.6(3.3–4.0)6.4(5.5–7.4)3.6(3.3–3.9)5.9(5.2.0(1.6,2.5)3.2(1.9,4.4)3.1(2.8–3.9)5.4(5. 3hseerrorsisused,with,,andparametersscaledby10andresultsforwerefixedattheposteriormeansforthedataset.NeutralXNeutral tplcbtitmataTptahohcahhonnnhyhhategeaeedddciiiulinosieleifncihsmtnsinosntcratn,buhtgaareoloteesmmieaiirarapnarntiengrs.pgareneevecdlenrrucddtsysooehipiplhslrsfinrioefutoeoraneeohgcrectrndngesriHstiodcatouisfiptilniCohgniulmoicolnagniegwnmrtgptamohecaodsbeanpmorosiorocmdynmtamrdthmtartnghoraieioefmnezonutrordesgepgtnfscotsrepseii,hhsanmoroewidohoinllncntaeeilufaiisnoshdsdemntweegphouoesancvaiaieesftmfeectouagpnreustaile.Hnaehrsntutlteno,treT–httioaafiserilpCemhog,dlrrxoaepenerpeiwfrvlerngs.adryroeaegpeoionhSmsttunisemmctaheoiotetcnoethumnnibebisrpooaatscpeyteehwontlrrehilaeaselogymfeicyovliorsnerrnhmfeofoomen.poncmrmnaeooastspGopetetrfplohimhpyofdeceecraoeohnmmpicmolclmtutielihouhthseooeogteogumleailrrsdnhdcer-----t.
and95% hHC (5.4–5.9)5.76.6)(–(6.3–7.3)(5.9–7.3)(6.6–8.5)(6.1–8.6)(4.6–7.7)(2.0–3.3) ofsequencingset.Thosefor XSpCechiWarotiemonfiorssotmceonDsiivdeerrgedentcheearnadtioHoufmmane–aCnhgimenpeatinczedeiver-
Means 5.66.16.86.67.57.36.12.6 hemodeldataTE lgaetnedcedbieretwctelyenfXromandJCth6e9audtiostsaonmceese(sAti)m, dat(eXs)/di(nA),spceaclcieus-
Table7Posterior CompleteNeutralInertTELINESINELTRDNANeutralX N.—TOTEtheentireInert c00coe..78nm04tp–mfa0oro.ir8ds5oeHlnb–wseCtiw(,tthae0boe.8lnne0ea–1an0ny.l8caae2spsttebrraeaoltnwwpdoe).empnuTalchaaatneiqyoudneo(X.stih)Uz/edenr(,Adt2e)hrearaapdte(icXoso,)a/wdale(naAsds-)