Environmental Impacts of Globalization and Trade: A Systems Study (Global Environmental Accord: Strategies for Sustainability and Institutional Innovation)

276 Pages·2002·2.04 MB·English

by  Corey L. Lofdahl

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Environmental Impacts of Globalization
and Trade
I
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Global Environmental Accord: Strategies for Sustainability and
Institutional Innovation
Nazli Choucri, editor
NazliChoucri,editor,GlobalAccord:EnvironmentalChallengesand
InternationalResponses
PeterM.Haas,RobertO.Keohane,andMarcA.Levy,editors,Institutionsfor
theEarth:SourcesofEffectiveInternationalEnvironmentalProtection
RonaldB.Mitchell,IntentionalOilPollutionatSea:EnvironmentalPolicy
andTreatyCompliance
RobertO.KeohaneandMarcA.Levy,editors,InstitutionsforEnvironmental
Aid:PitfallsandPromise
OranR.Young,editor,GlobalGovernance:DrawingInsightsfromthe
EnvironmentalExperience
JonathanA.FoxandL.DavidBrown,editors,TheStruggleforAccountability:
TheWorldBank,NGOs,andGrassrootsMovements
DavidG.Victor,KalRaustiala,andEugeneB.Skolnikoff,editors,The
ImplementationandEffectivenessofInternationalEnvironmental
Commitments:TheoryandPractice
MostafaK.Tolba,withIwonaRummel-Bulska,GlobalEnvironmental
Diplomacy:NegotiatingEnvironmentalAgreementsfortheWorld,1973–1992
KarenT.Litfin,editor,TheGreeningofSovereigntyinWorldPolitics(1998)
EdithBrownWeissandHaroldK.Jacobson,editors,EngagingCountries:
StrengtheningCompliancewithInternationalEnvironmentalAccords
OranR.Young,editor,TheEffectivenessofInternationalEnvironmental
Regimes:CausalConnectionsandBehavioralMechanisms
RonieGarcia-Johnson,ExportingEnvironmentalism:U.S.Multinational
ChemicalCorporationsinBrazilandMexico
LasseRingius,RadioactiveWasteDisposalatSea:PublicIdeas,Transnational
PolicyEntrepreneurs,andEnvironmentalRegimes
RobertG.Darst,SmokestackDiplomacy:CooperationandConflictin
East-WestEnvironmentalPolitics
UrsLuterbacherandDetlefF.Sprinz,editors,InternationalRelationsand
GlobalClimateChange
EdwardL.Miles,ArildUnderdal,SteinarAndresen,JørgenWettestad,Jon
BirgerSkjærseth,andElaineM.Carlin,EnvironmentalRegimeEffectiveness:
ConfrontingTheorywithEvidence
ErikaWeinthal,StateMakingandEnvironmentalCooperation:Linking
DomesticandInternationalPoliticsinCentralAsia
CoreyL.Lofdahl,EnvironmentalImpactsofGlobalizationandTrade:A
SystemsStudy
II
lofdahl-79014 lofd79014˙fm October30,2001 16:15
Environmental Impacts of Globalization
and Trade
A Systems Study
Corey L. Lofdahl
TheMITPress
Cambridge,Massachusetts
London,England
III
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(cid:1)c2002MassachusettsInstituteofTechnology
Allrightsreserved.Nopartofthisbookmaybereproducedinanyformbyany
electronicormechanicalmeans(includingphotocopying,recording,orinforma-
tionstorageandretrieval)withoutpermissioninwritingfromthepublisher.
ThisbookwassetinSabonbyInteractiveCompositionCorporation
PrintedandboundintheUnitedStatesofAmerica.
LibraryofCongressCataloging-in-PublicationData
Lofdahl,CoreyL.
Environmentalimpactsofglobalizationandtrade:asystemsstudy/Corey
L.Lofdahl.
p. cm.—(Globalenvironmentalaccords)
Includesbibliographicalreferencesandindex.
ISBN0-262-12245-6(hc.:alk.paper)
1. Internationaltrade—Environmentalaspects. I. Title. II. Series.
HF1379.L63 2002
333.7—dc21 2001044755
IV
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InMemoryof
AlverLofdahland
FinlayPetrie
V
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This page intentionally left blank
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Contents
ListofFigures ix
ListofTables xiii
Preface xv
Acknowledgments xix
1 Introduction:TheChallenges 1
1.1 CurrentViews 5
1.2 SocialandNaturalEnvironments 10
1.3 TheRoleofComputation 22
1.4 MeetingtheChallenges 27
2 LateralPressureTheory 29
2.1 TheClassics 31
2.2 ClarifyingConceptsandContentions 35
2.3 LateralPressureasLinkageTheory 40
2.4 LateralPressureExtended 44
2.5 MethodsandStrategy 53
2.6 TowardRobustSpecification 58
3 ContextualImperatives 65
3.1 GeographicAnalysis 68
3.2 Time-SeriesAnalysis 78
3.3 Conclusion 95
4 UntanglingComplexLinkages:StatisticalAnalysis 99
4.1 PrevailingContentions 99
4.2 TheSimplestView:UnivariateAnalysis 106
4.3 TheViewLessSimple:BivariateAnalysis 111
VII
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viii Contents
4.4 TheComplexView:MultivariateAnalysis 116
4.5 Conclusion:RevisingtheContentions 124
5 ExploringComplexity:SystemDynamicsAnalysis 127
5.1 RecallingAnalyticTensions 128
5.2 RepresentingAnalyticTensions 131
5.3 TheEnvironmentalLateralPressureModel 136
5.4 CriticalInferencesandImplications 149
6 Conclusion:ImplicationsforTheory,Methods,andPolicy 155
6.1 TheoreticalExtensions 158
6.2 MethodologicalAdvances 161
6.3 PolicyConsequences 164
6.4 NextSteps 167
AppendixA ComplexStructuresandDynamics 171
AppendixB ConditionalPlotAnalysis 177
AppendixC LatitudeandLongitudeAnalysis 189
AppendixD TC×GNPTests 191
AppendixE DynamicModelEquations 201
AppendixF NonlinearRelationshipAnalysis 211
AppendixG DynamicEquilibriumAnalysis 219
Notes 221
Bibliography 227
Index 241
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Figures
1.1 NonlinearCausalRelationship 24
1.2 FeedbackLoops 25
2.1 TheLinkageChallenge 34
2.2 InternationalRelationsonWar 41
2.3 InternationalRelationsontheEnvironment 45
2.4 EnvironmentalLateralPressure 59
3.1 NorthandChoucriEcologicalProfiles 71
3.2 SocialIndicatorsofDevelopmentEcologicalProfiles 72
3.3 1990CarbonDioxide(CO )perCapita 73
2
3.4 1980–1990Deforestation 75
3.5 WorldBiomesbyCarbonContent 76
3.6 GrossNationalProduct(GNP) 80
3.7 GrossNationalProduct(GNP)perCapita 81
3.8 TotalCarbonDioxide(CO )Output 83
2
3.9 MeanCarbonDioxide(CO )perCapita 84
2
3.10 TotalImports 87
3.11 TradeRatio 88
3.12 TotalWorldPopulation 89
3.13 TotalPopulationGrowth 90
3.14 WorldForestandWoodlandArea 93
3.15 WorldAgriculturalLand 95
4.1 G∗ GNPperCapita 109
i
4.2 G∗ CO perCapita 110
i 2
IX