Environmental hazards methodologies for risk assessment and management

560 Pages·2017·22.972 MB·English

by  Dalezios, Nicolas R

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Environmental Hazards h Environmental Hazards
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Methodologies for Risk Assessment and Management
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Editor: Nicolas R. Dalezios om
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From the beginning of 21st century, there has been an awareness of risk in the environment along sn

with a growing concern for the continuing potential damage caused by hazards. In order to ensure ft
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environmental sustainability, a better understanding of natural disasters and their impacts is essential. a Risk Assessment
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It has been recognized that a holistic and integrated approach to environmental hazards needs to R H
be attempted using common methodologies, such as risk analysis, which involves risk management is
and risk assessment. Indeed, risk management means reducing the threats posed by known hazards, ka
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whereas at the same time accepting unmanageable risks and maximizing any related benefits.
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The risk management framework involves evaluating the importance of a risk, either quantitatively sr
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or qualitatively. Risk assessment comprises three steps, namely risk identification (data base, event s
monitoring, statistical inference), risk estimation (magnitude, frequency, economic costs) and risk ss
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evaluation (cost-benefit analysis).
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Nevertheless, the risk management framework also includes a fourth step, risk governance, i.e. the n
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need for a feedback of all the risk assessment undertakings. There is currently a lack of such feedback
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which constitutes a serious deficiency in the reduction of environmental hazards.
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This book emphasises methodological approaches and procedures of the three main components in

the study of environmental hazards, namely forecasting nowcasting (before), monitoring (during) and M
assessment (after), based on geoinformatic technologies and data and simulation through examples a
and case studies. n
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These are considered within the risk management framework and, in particular, within the three g
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components of risk assessment, namely risk identification, risk estimation and risk evaluation. This
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approach is a contemporary and innovative procedure and constitutes current research in the field of
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environmental hazards.
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Environmental Hazards Methodologies for Risk Assessment and Management covers hydrological hazards
(floods, droughts, storms, hail, desertification), biophysical hazards (frost, heat waves, epidemics, forest
fires), geological hazards (landslides, snow avalanches), tectonic hazards (earthquakes, volcanoes), and
technological hazards.
This book provides a text and a resource on environmental hazards for senior undergraduate
students, graduate students on all courses related to environmental hazards and risk assessment and N
management. It is a valuable handbook for researchers and professionals of environmental science, ic
environmental economics and management, and engineering. o
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ISBN: 9781780407128 (Paperback)
ISBN: 9781780407135 (eBook)
Nicolas R. Dalezios
Environmental Hazards
Methodologies for Risk
Assessment and
Management

Environmental Hazards
Methodologies for Risk
Assessment and
Management
Edited by
Nicolas R. Dalezios
Published by IWA Publishing
Alliance House
12 Caxton Street
London SW1H 0QS, UK
Telephone: [phone]
Fax: [phone]
Email: [email protected]
Web: www.iwapublishing.com
First published 2017
© 2017 IWA Publishing
Apart from any fair dealing for the purposes of research or private study, or criticism or
review, as permitted under the UK Copyright, Designs and Patents Act (1998), no part of this
publication may be reproduced, stored or transmitted in any form or by any means, without
the prior permission in writing of the publisher, or, in the case of photographic reproduction,
in accordance with the terms of licenses issued by the Copyright Licensing Agency in the
UK, or in accordance with the terms of licenses issued by the appropriate reproduction rights
organization outside the UK. Enquiries concerning reproduction outside the terms stated
here should be sent to IWA Publishing at the address printed above.
The publisher makes no representation, express or implied, with regard to the accuracy of
the information contained in this book and cannot accept any legal responsibility or liability
for errors or omissions that may be made.
Disclaimer
The information provided and the opinions given in this publication are not necessarily those
of IWA and should not be acted upon without independent consideration and professional
advice. IWA and the Editors and Author will not accept responsibility for any loss or damage
suffered by any person acting or refraining from acting upon any material contained in this
publication.
British Library Cataloguing in Publication Data
A CIP catalogue record for this book is available from the British Library
ISBN 9781780407128 (Paperback)
ISBN 9781780407135 (eBook)
“to an ever improving and sustainable world”

Contents
About the editor..........................................xvii
List of Contributors.......................................xviii
Preface . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . xxi
Acknowledgements...................................... xxiv
Part 1
Prolegomena ............................................. 1
Chapter 1
Environmental hazards concepts ............................ 2
Nicolas R. Dalezios and Costas Lalenis
1.1 Concepts and Scope of Environmental Hazards ................... 2
1.1.1 Concepts of environmental hazards and disasters . . . . . . . . . . 2
1.1.2 Scope of hazards and disasters ......................... 3
1.2 A Typology and Classification of Hazards . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4
1.2.1 Hydrometeorological hazards ........................... 6
1.2.2 Biophysical hazards . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9
1.2.3 Geophysical hazards . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11
1.3 Causes – Factors – Features – Drivers of Hazards ................ 14
1.3.1 Features and characteristics of hazards . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14
1.3.2 Factors and drivers of hazards ......................... 15
1.4 Diachronic Evolution and Trends of Hazards ..................... 16
1.5 Hazard and Risk Analysis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18
1.5.1 Hazard and risk concepts ............................. 18
1.5.2 Risk management framework .......................... 20
1.6 Legal and Institutional Aspects of Hazards ...................... 24
1.7 Summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27
References .................................................... 27
viii Environmental Hazards Methodologies for Risk Assessment
Chapter 2
Multi-hazard risk assessment and decision making ........... 31
Cees J. van Westen and Stefan Greiving
2.1 Risk . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 34
2.2 Multi-hazard Risk .......................................... 39
2.2.1 Independent events . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 39
2.2.2 Coupled events ..................................... 40
2.2.3 One hazard changes conditions for the next .............. 41
2.2.4 Domino or cascading hazards . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 42
2.2.5 Example of multi-hazard chain: Layou Valley landslides
in Dominica, Caribbean .............................. 42
2.3 Risk Analysis Approaches ................................... 45
2.3.1 Quantitative risk assessment . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 47
2.3.2 Event-tree approaches ............................... 50
2.3.3 Risk matrix approach . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 53
2.3.4 Indicator-based approach ............................. 54
2.4 Risk Analysis and Decision Making: A Case Study ................ 57
2.4.1 The case study data set .............................. 58
2.4.2 Hazard input data ................................... 60
2.4.3 Input data: elements-at-risk . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 61
2.4.4 Input data: vulnerability curves ......................... 62
2.4.5 Input data: administrative units ......................... 62
2.5 Analysing the Current Level of Risk ............................ 62
2.5.1 Stakeholders ....................................... 62
2.5.2 Hazard modelling and elements-at-risk/vulnerability
assessment ........................................ 64
2.5.3 Risk analysis ....................................... 65
2.5.4 Risk evaluation ..................................... 68
2.6 Analysing the Best Planning Alternative . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 70
2.6.1 Defining possible planning alternatives .................. 70
2.6.2 Re-analysing hazards and elements-at-risk ............... 73
2.6.3 Analyse risk reduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 74
2.6.4 Compare alternatives ................................ 75
2.6.5 Final decision and implementation ...................... 75
2.7 Analysing Possible Future Scenarios .......................... 75
2.7.1 Identification of possible future scenarios . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 76
2.7.2 Re-analysing hazards and elements-at-risk for possible
future scenarios . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 76
2.7.3 Analyse possible changes risk for possible future
scenarios . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 79
2.7.4 Changing risk evaluation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 79
2.8 Analysing Planning Alternatives Under Possible Future
Scenarios ................................................ 80
2.8.1 Selection of alternatives, scenarios and future years ........ 81
2.8.2 Re-analysing hazards and elements-at-risk for
alternatives/scenarios ................................ 81
Contents ix
2.8.3 Analyse risk reduction for alternatives/scenarios ........... 84
2.8.4 Compare alternatives under different scenarios . . . . . . . . . . . 84
2.8.5 Final decision and implementation ...................... 84
2.9 Summary and Conclusions .................................. 86
2.9.1 Which method to choose? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 86
2.9.2 Tools for multi-hazard assessment ...................... 89
2.9.3 Development of a spatial decision support system . . . . . . . . . 90
Acknowledgements . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 90
References .................................................... 91
Part 2
Hydrometeorological Hazards Methodologies ................ 95
Chapter 3
Storms ................................................. 96
Terry W. Krauss and Nicolas R. Dalezios
3.1 Storm Concepts ........................................... 96
3.2 Classification of Storms ..................................... 97
3.2.1 Single-cell, multi-cell, supercell and squall lines . . . . . . . . . . . 98
3.2.2 Mesoscale convective systems (MCS) .................. 101
3.2.3 Tropical and extratropical cyclones . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 104
3.2.4 Features of storms ................................. 106
3.2.5 Tornadoes-lightning-flash floods . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 108
3.2.6 Precipitation efficiency . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 111
3.3 Storm Detection .......................................... 112
3.3.1 Conventional radar ................................. 112
3.3.2 Polarimetric radar .................................. 115
3.4 Storm Modelling and Forecasting . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 119
3.4.1 Storm modelling . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 119
3.4.2 Storm forecasting .................................. 122
3.5 Hail .................................................... 125
3.5.1 Hail formation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 125
3.5.2 Hail detection ..................................... 128
3.5.3 Hail forecasting .................................... 129
3.5.4 Hail suppression ................................... 131
3.6 Summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 133
References ................................................... 133
Chapter 4
Floods ................................................ 137
Elisa Destro, Efthymios I. Nikolopoulos,
Jean-Dominique Creutin and Marco Borga
4.1 Flood and Flood Risk ...................................... 137
4.1.1 The flood hydrograph and its shape .................... 138