Table Of ContentEnErgy TEchnology InnovaTIon
Energy technology innovation – improving how we produce and use
energy – is critical for a transition toward sustainability. This book
presents a rich set of twenty historical case studies of energy technology
innovation embedded within a unifying conceptual framework. It
provides insights into why some innovation efforts have been more
successful than others, and it draws important policy conclusions.
The case studies cover a wide range of energy technologies, ranging
from energy supply to energy end use; from successes to failures; and
from industrialized, emerging, and developing economies. The case
studies are presented by an international group of eminent scholars
under the auspices of the Global Energy Assessment (GEA), whose
main volume was published in 2012 by Cambridge University Press.
Energy Technology Innovation presents new data, new concepts, and
novel analytical and policy perspectives. It will prove invaluable for
researchers, policy makers, economists, industrial innovators, and
entrepreneurs in the field of energy technology.
Arnulf Grubler is a world-leading scholar on the history of energy
systems and on technological change and innovation policy. He is
acting program leader of the Transitions to New Technologies Program
at the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA),
Laxenburg, Austria, and professor in the field of energy and technology
at the School of Forestry and Environmental Studies at Yale University.
He has served as lead and contributing author and review editor for the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) since 1996. He
has authored or edited several books, including Technology and Global
Change (1998, Cambridge University Press) and Technological Change
and the Environment (with N. Nakicenovic and W. D. Nordhaus, 2002).
He is also a convening lead author of three chapters in the Global
Energy Assessment (2012, Cambridge University Press).
Charlie Wilson is a researcher with the Tyndall Centre for Climate
Change Research and a lecturer in the School of Environmental
Sciences at the University of East Anglia, UK. He is a scholar on
innovation studies and on the history of technological change in
energy systems. His current research focuses on historical and future
technology diffusion dynamics, and on the adoption of energy-efficient
and smart home technologies. Previously he held positions with the
London School of Economics and the IIASA. He is also a lead author
of two chapters in the Global Energy Assessment (2012, Cambridge
University Press).
Energy Technology Innovation
learning from historical Successes
and Failures
Edited by
arnulf grubler
International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria,
and School of Forestry and Environmental Studies, Yale University,
United States
charlie Wilson
Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, University of East Anglia,
United Kingdom
32 Avenue of the Americas, New York, NY 10013-2473, USA
Cambridge University Press is part of the University of Cambridge.
It furthers the University’s mission by disseminating knowledge in the pursuit of
education, learning, and research at the highest international levels of excellence.
www.cambridge.org
Information on this title: www.cambridge.org/9781107023222
© International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis 2014
This publication is in copyright. Subject to statutory exception
and to the provisions of relevant collective licensing agreements,
no reproduction of any part may take place without the written
permission of Cambridge University Press.
First published 2014
Printed in the United States of America
A catalog record for this publication is available from the British Library.
Library of Congress Cataloging in Publication Data
Energy technology innovation : learning from historical successes and failures / edited by Arnulf
Grubler, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria, Charlie Wilson,
University of East Anglia, UK.
pages cm
Includes bibliographical references.
ISBN 978-1-107-02322-2 (hardback)
1. Power resources. I. Grubler, Arnulf, 1955– II. Wilson, Charlie, 1972–
TJ163.2.E4933 2014
621.042–dc23 2013027352
ISBN 978-1-107-02322-2 Hardback
Cambridge University Press has no responsibility for the persistence or accuracy of
URLs for external or third-party Internet Web sites referred to in this publication
and does not guarantee that any content on such Web sites is, or will remain,
accurate or appropriate.
Contents
Author Bios page ix
Acronyms xiii
Acknowledgements xv
PART I. INTRoDUCTIoN
1. Energy Technology Innovation 3
Charlie Wilson and Arnulf Grubler
2. The Energy Technology Innovation System 11
Charlie Wilson and Arnulf Grubler
3. Historical Case Studies of Energy Technology Innovation 30
Arnulf Grubler and Charlie Wilson
PART II. PATTERNS AND LINKAGES IN THE ENERGY TECHNoLoGY
INNovATIoN SYSTEm
4. Grand Designs: Historical Patterns and Future Scenarios of Energy
Technological Change 39
Arnulf Grubler
5. Historical Diffusion and Growth of Energy Technologies 54
Charlie Wilson
6. Input, Output, and Outcome Metrics for Assessing Energy
Technology Innovation 75
Charlie Wilson
7. Technology Portfolios: Modelling Technological Uncertainty and
Innovation Risks 89
Arnulf Grubler, Sabine Fuss, with contributions from
David McCollum, Volker Krey, and Keywan Riahi
v
vi Contents
PART III. KNoWLEDGE IN THE ENERGY TECHNoLoGY INNovATIoN
SYSTEm
8. Solar Water Heater Innovation in the United States, China, and
Europe 105
Gregory F. Nemet
9. Heat Pumps: A Comparative Assessment of Innovation and
Diffusion Policies in Sweden and Switzerland 118
Bernadett Kiss, Lena Neij, and Martin Jakob
10. Sources and Consequences of Knowledge Depreciation 133
Arnulf Grubler and Gregory F. Nemet
11. The French Pressurised Water Reactor Programme 146
Arnulf Grubler
PART Iv. ADoPTIoN AND USE IN THE ENERGY TECHNoLoGY
INNovATIoN SYSTEm
12. Technological Improvements in Solar Thermal Electricity
in the United States and the Role of Public Policy 165
Gregory F. Nemet
13. Automobile Fuel Efficiency Standards 178
Gregory F. Nemet
14. Hybrid Cars: Development and Deployment in Japan, the United
States, and China 193
Kelly Sims Gallagher
15. Solar Photovoltaics: Multiple Drivers of Technological Improvement 206
Gregory F. Nemet
PART v. ACToRS AND INSTITUTIoNS IN THE ENERGY TECHNoLoGY
SYSTEm
16. A Comparative Assessment of Wind Turbine Innovation and
Diffusion Policies 221
Lena Neij and Per Dannemand Andersen
17. The Role of Standards: The Japanese Top Runner Programme for
End-Use Efficiency 231
Osamu Kimura
18. Solar Innovation and Market Feedback: Solar Photovoltaics in Rural
Kenya 244
Daniel M. Kammen and Arne Jacobson
Contents vii
19. The U S Synthetic Fuels Corporation: Policy Consistency, Flexibility,
and the Long-Term Consequences of Perceived Failures 257
Laura Díaz Anadón and Gregory F. Nemet
PART vI. RESoURCES IN THE ENERGY TECHNoLoGY INNovATIoN
SYSTEm
20. Brazilian Ethanol: Unpacking a Success Story of Energy Technology
Innovation 275
Dustin Meyer, Lynn Mytelka, Rich Press, Evandro Luíz Dall’Oglio,
Paulo Teixeira de Sousa Jr., and Arnulf Grubler
21. Global R&D, Market Formation, and Diffusion Investments in
Energy Technology Innovation 292
Arnulf Grubler, Laura Díaz Anadón, Kelly Sims Gallagher,
Ruud Kempener, Anastasia O’Rourke, and Charlie Wilson
22. Energy RD&D Investments in the Major Emerging Economies and
the United States 309
Ruud Kempener, Laura Díaz Anadón, Kelly Sims Gallagher,
and Kejun Jiang
23. A Comparative Analysis of Annual Market Investments in Energy
Supply and End-Use Technologies 332
Charlie Wilson and Arnulf Grubler
PART vII. CoNCLUSIoNS
24. Lessons Learnt from the Energy Technology Innovation System 349
Charlie Wilson and Arnulf Grubler
25. Policies for Energy Technology Innovation 371
Arnulf Grubler and Charlie Wilson
