Energy Policy Modeling in the 21st Century

277 Pages·2013·4.64 MB·English

by  Hassan Qudrat-Ullah (auth.), Hassan Qudrat-Ullah (eds.)

Understanding Complex Systems
FoundingEditor
Prof.Dr.J.A.ScottKelso
CenterforComplexSystems&BrainSciences
FloridaAtlanticUniversity
BocaRatonFL,USA
E-mail:[email protected]
EditorialandProgrammeAdvisoryBoard
HenryAbarbanel
Department of Physics and Marine Physical Laboratory (Scripps Institution of Oceanography),
UniversityofCalifornia,SanDiego,LaJolla,CA92903,USA
DanBraha
NewEnglandComplexSystems,InstituteandUniversityofMassachusetts,Dartmouth
PéterÉrdi
Center for Complex Systems Studies, Kalamazoo College, USA and Hungarian Academy of
Sciences,Budapest,Hungary
KarlFriston
InstituteofCognitiveNeuroscience,UniversityCollegeLondon,London,UK
HermannHaken
CenterofSynergetics,UniversityofStuttgart,Stuttgart,Germany
ViktorJirsa
CentreNationaldelaRechercheScientifique(CNRS),UniversitédelaMéditerranée,Marseille,
France
JanuszKacprzyk
SystemResearch,PolishAcademyofSciences,Warsaw,Poland
KunihikoKaneko
ResearchCenterforComplexSystemsBiology,TheUniversityofTokyo,Tokyo,Japan
ScottKelso
CenterforComplexSystemsandBrainSciences,FloridaAtlanticUniversity,BocaRaton,USA
MarkusKirkilionis
MathematicsInstituteandCentreforComplexSystems,UniversityofWarwick,Coventry,UK
JürgenKurths
PotsdamInstituteforClimateImpactResearch(PIK),Potsdam,Germany
AndrzejNowak
DepartmentofPsychology,WarsawUniversity,Poland
LindaReichl
CenterforComplexQuantumSystems,UniversityofTexas,Austin,USA
PeterSchuster
TheoreticalChemistryandStructuralBiology,UniversityofVienna,Vienna,Austria
FrankSchweitzer
SystemDesign,ETHZürich,Zürich,Switzerland
DidierSornette
EntrepreneurialRisk,ETHZürich,Zürich,Switzerland
StefanThurner
MedicalUniversityofVienna,Vienna,Austria
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Understanding Complex Systems
Futurescientificandtechnologicaldevelopmentsinmanyfieldswillnecessarilydependuponcoming
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Hassan Qudrat-Ullah
Editor
Energy Policy Modeling
in the 21st Century
2123
Editor
HassanQudrat-Ullah
SchoolofAdministrativeStudies
YorkUniversity
Toronto
Canada
ISSN1860-0832 ISSN1860-0840(electronic)
ISBN978-1-4614-8605-3 ISBN978-1-4614-8606-0(eBook)
DOI10.1007/978-1-4614-8606-0
SpringerNewYorkHeidelbergDordrechtLondon
LibraryofCongressControlNumber:2013950223
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Preface and Acknowledgements
Decision making in energy systems is a complex task at best. Complexity stems
primarilyfromthenonlinearnatureofenergy–economy–environmentinteractions.
Giventheglobaltrendoffocusingonlowcarboneconomies,energypolicydesign
andassessmenthasbecomeadynamicproblem.Uncertaintiessuchasthedynamics
ofenergysupplyanddemand,thepriceoffossilfuels,variousregulatoryregimes,the
advancesandchallengesofenergyproductionandconsumption-relatedtechnologies,
andimpactofenergyrelatedemissionsabound.Therefore,theuseofmodel-based
analysisandscenariosinenergypolicydesignandassessmenthasseenphenomenal
growthduringthepastseveraldecades.
Theprimaryaimofthisbookistodisseminatetherolesandapplicationsofvarious
modeling approaches aimed at improving the usefulness of energy policy models
in public decision making. The key focus is on the development, validation, and
applicationsofsystemdynamicsandagent-basedmodelsinserviceofenergypolicy
design and assessment in the twenty-first century. Invitations were sent all around
theglobe.Severalrenownedauthorswerealsospeciallyinvitedtocontribute.Each
prospectivecontributorwasinitiallyaskedtoprepareatwotothreepageproposal.
Theseproposalswerereviewedbytheeditorandsuggestionsweremadetoprepare
thefullpapers.Thesubmittedpaperswerethenreviewedbyindependentreviewer
panels. Each panel consisted of three members—the editor and two independent
expertsinthefield.Thefinalacceptance/rejectiondecisionsweremadebytheeditor
basedontherevisedpaperssubmittedbythecontributors.
Thebookcontainsthreeparts.PartI,“EnergyPolicyModelingforthe21stCen-
tury:AnIntroduction”hasonechapter.Itintroduceskeyaspectsofmajormodeling
approaches and presents an overview of all the chapters of this book. Part II of
the book, “Modeling Approaches and Energy Policy Decisions”, consists of six
chaptersanddealswiththerangeoftools, methods, andtechnologiesthatsupport
decisionmakingincomplex,dynamicenergysystemsincludingThinkingaboutthe
Future:SystemDynamicsandtheProcessofElectricityDeregulation,FuzzySystem
Dynamics:AFrameworkforModelingRenewableEnergyPolicies,TheDiffusion
ofEco-Technologies:AModel-BasedTheory, ManagingtheEnergyBasketinthe
Face of Limits, Power Plant Relocation Policy versus Investments in Transmis-
sionNetworkInfrastructure:aStudyontheItalianEnergyMarket,andSimulation
vii
viii PrefaceandAcknowledgements
of Greenhouse Gas Cap-and-Trade Systems with ENERGY 2020. Part III of the
book, “System Dynamics andAgent-Based Models inActions”, has six chapters
andprovidestheempiricalevidencetotheapplicationofbothsystemdynamicsand
agent-based modeling approaches to energy policy design and assessment issues
includingEnergyPolicyPlanningforClimateResilientLow-CarbonDevelopment,
UnderstandingtheDynamicsofElectricitySupplyandDemandinOntario,Adop-
tion of Renewable Energy Technologies: A Fuzzy System Dynamics Perspective,
Resurrecting a Forgotten Model: Updating Mashayekhi’s Model of Iranian Eco-
nomic Development, Making Progress Towards Emissions Mitigation: Modeling
Low-carbonPowerGenerationPolicy,andExploringEnergyandEconomicFutures
usingAgent-basedModelingandScenarioDiscovery.
Wearegratefultotheauthorsofthevariouschaptersfortheircontributions.Ithad
beenabitlongprocessfromtheinitialoutlinestodevelopingthefullchaptersand
thenrevisingtheminthelightofreviewers’comments.Wesincerelyacknowledge
theauthors’willingnesstogothroughthisprocess.Wealsoacknowledgethework
andknowledgeofthemembersofourreviewpanels,manyofwhichhadtobedone
atshortnotice.
ThankstoallthepeopleatSpringer, USAespeciallyChristopher, HoYing, and
Brianwithwhomwecorrespondedfortheiradviceandfacilitationintheproduction
ofthisbook.
Mrs. Puja Kumari, Crest Premedia Solutions (P) Ltd. prepared a camera-ready
copyofthemanuscriptwithherusualprofessionalismandcooperationandwewish
torecordourthankstoher.
Finally,Iamgratefultomyfamily,Tahira(forherincredibleandselflesssupport
allthetime),Anam(forherprofessionalproofreadingandspiritualperspectiveon
thingsaroundus),Ali(forsparingtimefromhiskingdom),Umer(forhisoccasional
smiles on my work and his work too), Umael (for bearing with me on Writing
Assignments, and rollerblades stuff), and my father, Safdar Khan and my mother,
Fazeelat Begum (for their sacrifice, support, and prayers all along)—all the very
source of my inspiration and desire to embark on this journey. It would be unfair
nottoacknowledgetheconstantandconsistentprayersandcaressheextendstome,
SairaBano,mymother-in-law.
Toronto,Canada HassanQudrat-Ullah
July,2013
Contents
PartI EnergyPolicyModelinginTwenty-FirstCentury:AnIntroduction
EnergyPolicyModelinginthe21stCentury:AnIntroduction .......... 3
HassanQudrat-Ullah
PartII ModelingApproachesandEnergyPolicyDecisions
ThinkingAbouttheFuture ......................................... 17
ErikR.LarsenandSantiagoArango
FuzzySystemDynamics:AFrameworkforModelingRenewable
EnergyPolicies.................................................... 31
MichaelMutingiandCharlesMbohwa
TheDiffusionofEco-Technologies:AModel-BasedTheory............. 49
MatthiasOttoMüller,RuthKaufmann-Hayoz,MarkusSchwaninger
andSilviaUlli-Beer
ManagingtheEnergyBasketintheFaceofLimits .................... 69
KhalidSaeed
PowerPlantRelocationPolicyversusInvestmentsinTransmission
NetworkInfrastructure:AStudyontheItalianEnergyMarket......... 87
SilvanoCincottiandGiuliaGallo
SimulationofGreenhouseGasCap-and-TradeSystems
withENERGY2020 ............................................... 107
JeffreyS.Amlin
PartIII SystemDynamicsandAgent-BasedModelsinAction
EnergyPolicyPlanningforClimate-ResilientLow-CarbonDevelopment 125
AndreaM.Bassi,Prakash(Sanju)DeenapanrayandPålDavidsen
ix
x Contents
UnderstandingtheDynamicsofElectricitySupplyandDemand
inCanada ........................................................ 157
HassanQudrat-Ullah
AdoptionofRenewableEnergyTechnologies:AFuzzySystem
DynamicsPerspective.............................................. 175
MichaelMutingi
ResurrectingaForgottenModel:UpdatingMashayekhi’sModel
ofIranianEconomicDevelopment................................... 197
SaeedP.LangarudiandMichaelJ.Radzicki
MakingProgressTowardsEmissionsMitigation:Modeling
Low-CarbonPowerGenerationPolicy............................... 235
IsaacDyner,CarlosJ.FrancoandLauraM.Cardenas
ExploringEnergyandEconomicFuturesUsingAgent-BasedModeling
andScenarioDiscovery ............................................ 251
P.Wang,M.D.GerstandM.E.Borsuk
Index ............................................................ 271