Emerging Techniques in Applied Demography

390 Pages·2015·12.877 MB·English

by  M.Nazrul Hoque, Lloyd B. Potter (eds.)

Applied Demography Series
Volume 4
Series Editor
David A. Swanson
The field of applied demography is largely driven by the quest for the knowledge re-
quired by clients, both in public and private sectors, to make good decisions within
time and costs constraints. The book series, Applied Demography, provides a forum
for illustrating and discussing the use of demographic methods, concepts, and per-
spectives in a wide range of settings – business, government, education, law, and
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concepts, and perspectives. The books within the series can be used as resources for
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More information about this series at http://www.springer.com/series/8838
M. Nazrul Hoque • Lloyd B. Potter
Editors
Emerging Techniques
in Applied Demography
1 3
Editors
M. Nazrul Hoque Lloyd B. Potter
Hobby Center for Public Policy Department of Demography
University of Houston Institute for Demographic
Houston and Socioeconomic Research
Texas University of Texas at San Antonio
USA San Antonio
Texas
USA
ISSN 2352-376X ISSN 2352-3778 (electronic)
ISBN 978-94-017-8989-9 ISBN 978-94-017-8990-5 (eBook)
DOI 10.1007/978-94-017-8990-5
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Library of Congress Control Number: 2014941688
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Foreword
Applied demography has comfortably settled into a relatively mature and secure
niche at the disciplinary intersection of demography, planning, geography, public
health, marketing, and several other fields where the concepts, tools, and data of
demography find practical application. The idea is hardly new, of course. The ap-
plication of demographic thinking to contemporary concerns can be traced from the
Black Death and the Bills of Mortality, on the other side of the Atlantic, to unem-
ployment in the Depression, the Great Migration, urban consolidation/suburbaniza-
tion, an outpouring of migration and population redistribution studies, and the early
methodological developments in small-area population research in America.
The origin of applied demography in the United States is difficult to mark with
precision. Much has been written on the topic, including key articles and chapters
by authors appearing in this volume. What clearly is part of the established record,
however, is that by the 1950s the foundations of applied demography were being
erected at the U.S. Census Bureau, in a variety of state agencies, and at several
universities. A Census Bureau survey in 1955 identified 39 state agencies (mostly
in departments of health – agencies that needed denominators for the construction
of vital rates) involved in the production of population estimates. In addition, nine
universities were found to be doing research related to population estimates (with
this number heavily dominated by bureaus of business research). A decade later,
45 states had official agencies producing population estimates or projections, with
the largest growth between 1955 and 1965 represented by the increasing delega-
tion of such activities to state planning and development agencies. These decen-
tralized and fragmented activities sometimes led to confusion on the part of data
users, and in 1967 the Census Bureau, working with state governments, established
the Federal-State Cooperative Program for Local Population Estimates (FSCPE).
While originally established as a partnership program to assist the Census Bureau
in developing annual population estimates for counties, another chief objective of
the FSCPE was to bring a more coordinated approach to the making of population
estimates by having a single agency in each state (designated by the respective
governors) working cooperatively with the Bureau for the production of estimates.
By the early 1970s a major acceleration in the growth of applied demography
was underway, and venues were needed to bring professional applied demographers
v
vi Foreword
together. The meetings of the Southern Regional Demographic Group (now the
Southern Demographic Association, SDA) quickly became the most popular such
venue. By the mid-1970s, many members of the Population Association of America
(PAA) were beginning proudly to self-identify as applied demographers. Initial-
ly these were demographers working in state and local settings, but soon a small
core of business demographers had become allied with the group. The PAA Board
granted organizational legitimacy to the group by creating in 1978 a Committee on
State and Local Demography (eventually the Committee on Applied Demography),
and annual meetings of the PAA began formally to serve as an outlet for reporting a
variety of problem-oriented demographic research.
Then, in 1986, David Swanson initiated a meeting of applied demographers at
Bowling Green State University, thus beginning a wonderful tradition and legacy of
biennial gatherings for demographic practitioners. This proceedings volume, edited
by Nazrul Hoque and Lloyd Potter, pulls together in one place several of the papers
presented at the 2012 Applied Demography Conference held in San Antonio. While
there have been some interruptions in the biennial schedule, these important gather-
ings continue, with the Institute for Demographic and Socioeconomic Research at
The University of Texas at San Antonio having served as organizer and host since
2007. As new developments in data acquisition and reporting evolve, as innovative
demographic methodologies are introduced, as the computing and software worlds
continue to open new opportunities, and as those who need demographic assistance
present fresh analytic challenges, applied demographers will continue to need con-
ferences and venues at which to gather and share their work. Our community is
indebted to those who have kept this tradition alive and growing.
November 2013 Paul Voss
Acknowledgements
This book is based on the papers presented at the 3rd Applied Demography Confer-
ence that was held in San Antonio, Texas, January 8 through 10, 2012. Many people
have contributed to the development of this book and we are indebted to all of them.
We would like to thank all the staff members of the Institute for Demographic and
Socioeconomic Research for organizing the Conference and the Institute for spon-
soring the Conference and also for providing financial support for the book.
We thank the authors of the individual chapters for submitting their work for
publication in Emerging Techniques in Applied Demography. All the chapters are
peer reviewed, and we would also like thank the reviewers for their timely reviews
and comments for the authors in regard to the chapters in this volume. Our appre-
ciation is also extended to the authors for their timely response to our requests for
revisions.
We sincerely appreciate the support of McKibben Demographics for sponsor-
ing the welcome reception for the conference. We also appreciate the contributions
of Patricia Bramwell, Lisa Espinoza, Beverly Pecotte, Jeffrey Jordan, Alfredo Za-
vala, and Eric Quiroz, all with the Institute for Demographic and Socioeconomic
Research, who helped with the conference and also with the book. We very much
appreciate the superior editorial work of Karen White. Without her help this book
would not have been completed.
We would like to thank Evelien Bakker, the senior editor of the Springer publica-
tions, and Bernadette Deelen-Mans, the editor of the Springer publications, and her
staff, as well as the staff at the production office.
We thank Paul Voss for contributing the foreword for the book. Acknowledged
as one of the pioneer applied demographers, he is one of the most respected experts
in the field of population estimates and projections in the United States. We are
thankful for his insightful words.
Finally, Nazrul Hoque would like to thank his wife, Noor Jahan, for her unending
support and encouragement as he worked on this volume. It is our sincere hope that
this volume would be helpful for future research in the field of applied demography.
vii
Contents
1 Introduction ................................................................................................ 1
M. Nazrul Hoque and Lloyd B. Potter
Part I Evaluation of Population Projections and 2010 Census Counts
2 A n Evaluation of Population Forecast Errors for Florida and
its Counties, 1980–2010 .............................................................................. 11
Stanley K. Smith and Stefan Rayer
3 S implifying Local Area Population and Household
Projections with POPART ......................................................................... 25
Tom Wilson
4 T he Net Undercount of Children in the 2010 U.S. Decennial Census ... 39
William P. O’ Hare
5 Mathematical Modeling and Projecting Population of
Bangladesh by Age and Sex from 2002 to 2031 ....................................... 53
Md. Rafiqul Islam and M. Nazrul Hoque
Part II Evaluation of Population Estimates Produced by New
and Current Methods
6 Sub-County Population Estimates Using Administrative
Records: A Municipal-Level Case Study in New Mexico ....................... 63
Jack Baker, Adélamar Alcántara, Xiaomin Ruan, Daren Ruiz
and Nathan Crouse
7 Housing-Unit Method in Comparison: The Virginia Case .................... 81
Qian Cai and Rebecca Tippett
ix
x Contents
8 On the Ratio-Correlation Regression Method of Population
Estimation and Its Variants..................................................................... 93
David A. Swanson and Jeff Tayman
9 A ssessing Accuracy in Postcensal Estimates: Statistical
Properties of Different Measures ............................................................ 119
Howard Hogan and Mary H. Mulry
10 U sing Tax Data to Estimate the Number of Families and
Households in Canada ............................................................................. 137
Julien Bérard-Chagnon
Part III Labor Market, Household, and Poverty
11 Comparing Immigrant Education Levels and Resultant
Labor Market Outcomes: The European Versus the Native
Born Experience in the United States ..................................................... 157
Cristina Bradatan and Laszlo J. Kulcsar
12 C hildbearing and the Labor Market: Time and Space Dynamics ...... 169
Elena Kotyrlo
13 H ousehold Expenditure on Medical Care and Health in Australia ..... 189
Farhat Yusuf and Stephen R. Leeder
14 M obile Home Population Displacement: The Case of
Anchorage, Alaska ................................................................................... 211
Donna Shai and Kristen Eaton
15 G eography is Destiny: Spatial Correlations in Poverty and
Educational Attainment in a New Mexico School District ................... 225
Srini Vasan, Adélamar Alcántara, Nomalanga Nefertari,
Xiaomin Ruan and Jack Baker
Part IV GIS, Redistricting Issues, and Cohort Analysis
16 Alternative Strategies for Mapping ACS Estimates and
Error of Estimation .................................................................................. 247
Joe Francis, Nij Tontisirin, Sutee Anantsuksomsri,
Jan Vink and Viktor Zhong
17 Older Moms Deliver: How Increased Births to Older
Mothers Can Impact School Enrollment ............................................... 275
Richard Lycan and Charles Rynerson